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Natural Gas: Has it Found a Bottom?Natural gas made a stunning rally to an all-time high, only to come crashing back down again. It's been a while since we last covered natural gas, so let's take a look at what's happened since then. The previous technical & seasonality setup played out perfectly with the RSI bouncing off the low and the rally into the winter season, hitting our profit target and extending further. This time, we're seeing a similar setup on a different timescale. Zooming out, natural gas has retraced the entire move it made in the past three years and is now back to pre-COVID levels. The question is, has natural gas found a bottom here? Looking at the weekly chart for natural gas over the past 20 years, we see an interesting picture. The weekly RSI has only broken past the 30 level five times over this two-decade period, and each time marked the rough bottom for natural gas. Fortunately, we're seeing this exact setup now, with prices seeming to find resistance at the $2 handle, which has also proven to be a reliable resistance level. Comparing the Henry Hub natural gas against the Dutch TTF natural gas, we can see the spread back to the lows when adjusting for the same unit measurement of MMBtu and in USD. On the fundamental side, this excerpt from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) sums up the outlook for Natural Gas vs Coal: “Natural gas-fired generation capacity in the United States has grown in recent years, although coal-fired generation has continued to decline. Lower coal-fired generation is due to a long-term trend of coal power plant retirements and increased competition with natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants when natural gas prices are low. A total of 11.5 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. coal-fired electricity generating capacity retired in 2022. No new coal-fired capacity has come online since 2013, and developers have not reported any plans to build new U.S. coal-fired capacity in the future. In contrast, nearly 6.1 GW of natural gas-fired capacity was added in 2022, according to our Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.” Natural Gas saw a record high for the winter heating season. Additionally, close to 23% of US coal plants have plans to retire by 2029, and the last new coal plant that came online in the US was in 2013, 10 years ago. With coal plants being the second-largest source of electricity in the US and supply being cut, energy has to come from somewhere else. While the push for renewable energy continues, natural gas remains the main source of energy production. The dissipation of supply from retiring coal plants will likely be filled by natural gas. The reason being? Natural Gas currently remains most reliable form of energy source, while nuclear faces political pushbacks and Wind, Hydro & Solar have unpredictable/intermittent generation capacity. Lastly, the Dollar sits on a key level now. If broken, the weakening dollar could drive commodities prices higher en masse. All in all, the case to long natural gas from here seems reasonable, with the fundamental outlook for Natural gas still positive and the technical set-up pointing to a low. Taking a long position at the current levels of 2.186 and setting our stops at 1.85 and our first take profit level at 3.1 gives us a reasonable halfway point while setting our next take profit level at 3.8 gives us a higher profit potential if prices continue to rise. CME’s Henry Hub Natural gas is quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per MMBtu. Each 0.001 increment equal to 10$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.eia.gov www.eia.gov blogs.worldbank.org
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by inspirante
4
Taking an Aggressive Approach for Extended TargetsAfter a considerable wait, the bullish bat pattern has finally been completed, indicating a potential buying opportunity for traders. However, conservative traders may want to wait for the candlestick to close at 1.2463 before entering the trade. On the other hand, I took a more aggressive approach and entered the trade today, given the presence of two extended targets on the GBPUSD trade. It will be interesting to see how this trade progresses, and I have placed a safe house at the traditional first target of the Bat Pattern to manage my risk effectively.
Long
by RaynLim
Buy and Sell signals from MACD and RSI scriptThis code includes various input parameters that users can configure, including RSI and MACD periods, RSI overbought and oversold levels, MACD timeframes and signal period, and stop loss and take profit levels. By using the input() function, users can easily change the values of these parameters through the script's settings/inputs, without needing to modify the code itself //@version=5 // Author: divinedestinyman strategy("RSI-MACD Strategy with Multiple Timeframes", overlay=true) // Define input parameters rsi_timeframe = input(title="RSI Timeframe", type=input.resolution, defval="D") rsi_period = input(title="RSI Period", type=input.integer, defval=14) rsi_overbought = input(title="RSI Overbought Level", type=input.integer, defval=70) rsi_oversold = input(title="RSI Oversold Level", type=input.integer, defval=30) macd_timeframe = input(title="MACD Timeframe", type=input.resolution, defval="D") macd_fast = input(title="MACD Fast Period", type=input.integer, defval=12) macd_slow = input(title="MACD Slow Period", type=input.integer, defval=26) macd_signal = input(title="MACD Signal Period", type=input.integer, defval=9) stop_loss = input(title="Stop Loss", type=input.float, defval=0.02) take_profit = input(title="Take Profit", type=input.float, defval=0.02) // Calculate RSI and MACD values rsi_value = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, rsi_timeframe, rsi(close, rsi_period)) = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, macd_timeframe, macd(close, macd_fast, macd_slow, macd_signal)) // Generate buy and sell signals rsi_buy_signal = crossover(rsi_value, rsi_oversold) rsi_sell_signal = crossunder(rsi_value, rsi_overbought) macd_buy_signal = crossover(macd_line, macd_signal_line) macd_sell_signal = crossunder(macd_line, macd_signal_line) // Plot RSI and MACD lines plot(rsi_value, color=color.yellow, title="RSI") plot(macd_line, color=color.blue, title="MACD Line") plot(macd_signal_line, color=color.red, title="MACD Signal Line") // Execute long and short trades based on signals if (rsi_buy_signal and macd_buy_signal) strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long) if (rsi_sell_signal and macd_sell_signal) strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short) // Close long and short trades based on signals if (macd_sell_signal and strategy.position_size > 0) strategy.close("Buy") if (macd_buy_signal and strategy.position_size < 0) strategy.close("Sell") // Set stop loss and take profit levels for long and short positions strategy.exit("Exit Long", "Buy", stop=close * (1 - stop_loss), limit=close * (1 + take_profit)) strategy.exit("Exit Short", "Sell", stop=close * (1 + stop_loss), limit=close * (1 - take_profit))
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by divinedestinyman
1
BTC Bottom Finder with RSI 📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 I'll be exploring a few scenarios for a potential Bitcoin bottom. In today's analysis, I make a use of Technical Indicator the RSI (relative strength index) over a long period of time, in other words a macro view. For more data that goes back further, I'm using BTCUSD instead of BTCUSDT. The RSI is trading in the historic oversold zone, but as we can see during the bottom of end 2014- beginning 2015, another leg down into the oversold zone is possible before continuing back upwards. This is indeed the scenario that I would be expecting, considering we have already tested this zone once but with talks of a global recession in 2023, we could see another leg down to support zone $11K before the final accumulation phase ends. I am by NO MEANS predicting the bottom date; just a simple overview that BTC is generally accumulated at a good price around this zone. Keep your eye on these 4 altcoins that have great upside potential during 2023, possibly even during a bear market as they are prone to pump and dump untimely 👀 XLM and DOT XRP and LTC _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
32
NZDJPY - Bullish SharkTo those who trade based on currency correlation, this is one setup you have to look at. On the surface, the NZDJPY and NZDUSD both have a Bullish Shark Pattern on the 1-hourly chart, but if you look closely at the 4-hourly chart, you will be able to see the future of these two pairs differs from one another. On the NZDJPY, the Shark Pattern is more direct, in and out of the setup. However, on the NZDUSD setup, there is a potential trading combo setup. Check out the related ideas at the bottom of my tradingview post to learn more.
Long
by RaynLim
How to trade intraday pullbackHello friends, Market finally picked a direction and it looks like it's gonna continue downtrend. Many novice traders are long biased and they find it very difficult to trade in down-trending market. Today, I am going to share a simple strategy for making quick gains by trading pullback in a downtrend. Below is a chart of NASDAQ:AMZN in daily timeframe. You can see that price is in a downtrend. Below is 5 minutes timeframe chart of NASDAQ:AMZN . You can see that above chart fulfills all the rules mentioned below. For this trade, Risk to Reward ratio is 1:3. Checklist - 1. Price is making LL while RSI is making HL - Bullish Divergence(highlighted in the chart) 2. RSI is below 30 - Price is oversold 3. Price is showing signs of reversal - Long lower wick candle(highlighted in the chart) 4. Above three confluences occurs during the first 1.5 hours of market open before market goes into mid-day chop 5. Risk to Reward ratio is at least 1:2 (shown in the chart) Entry - 1. Enter at the next candle open after reversal confirmation Exit - 1. Set Stop-loss below the recent low 2. Set Target at the first resistance
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by PriceActionTrader1
1
$1750 is the level to watchETH has been looking particularly strong throughout this relief rally, but I'm expecting resistance around $1750-$1800. This is a strong historic support/resistance level, and we can expect short pressure to pick up and long pressure to drop off substantially here. So a break above this level would tell me the bulls are back firmly in control. It's also worth noting that we saw the weekly RSI dip below 30 at the recent local bottom ($880). The last time that happened was at the 2018 bear market bottom. I think the price action around $1750 will provide a lot of insight as to whether $880 is our current bear market bottom, or just another local bottom of a continuing bear market.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by reees
Confluence Test for this Week's CandleCOINBASE:BTCUSD Right now, we are currently testing a $17,000 - $19,000 weekly candle support on $BTCUSD, while the 14 week RSI oscillator is oversold (<30). I'm hoping that by the close of the weekly candle, the RSI and candle for this week will either: Ex1. Close above the $17-19K support zone AND above 30 RSI or, Ex2. Close below the $17-19K Support zone AND below 30 RSI. This will give us confluence in determining if we continue to go to lower in price (Ex 2.) or HOLD $17-19K as weekly support.( Ex 1.) If the RSI and price candle do not close both above OR both below their respective levels, it is still ambiguous if this $17-19K weekly level will act as support or transition to resistance. I will be on the lookout for this coming Sunday night weekly candle close. ***DISCLAIMER: NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE***
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by jdm69
1
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Jun22,Wk2If you are looking to ride on the wave on the daily chart, either the late entry of the ABCD Pattern or engage the trade based on Potential Head and Shoulders setup, your chance is here. When the market opens wait for candlestick confirmation at 1.2369, the Bullish Deep Gartley Pattern. This is a counter-trend trade move and might inverse the Bearish Shark Pattern setup that you are in. It is important for those who have engaged the shark pattern to shift stop-loss to entry. You can now see that it is important to follow a coach who shares with you analysis before it happens and it is important to like that analysis that you are learning from, and that is because when you've related ideas, you will receive the notification and learn from it.
Long
by RaynLim
BTC on Track for its 8th Consecutive Weekly Loss Are We OversoldBitcoin (BTC) is on track to record losses for the eighth week in a row, the longest streak of losses in history. Before this streak, the previous biggest consecutive weekly losses were recorded in December 2014, when Bitcoin was worth just a few hundred USD and was down for five weeks in a row. Is Bitcoin Oversold? Despite the severe sell-off, Bitcoin is still not oversold, according to the most popular momentum oscillators. Bitcoin’s current weekly RSI reading of 33.67 shows that we aren’t oversold just yet. The RSI oscillator would need to fall below 30, or even 20, to be considered oversold. Meanwhile, the stochastic oscillator has entered oversold readings, but unlike the RSI, it has the tendency to stay in oversold readings longer, as it is more volatile and quick to react. By comparison, in 2014, after the record weekly losses streak, Bitcoin consolidated for 31 weeks before it resumed an upward trajectory. Looking forward: The Bitcoin sell-off can slow down in the near future, and we might see a temporary bottom around the $30,000 considerable round number. However, in the long-term, the correction can extend all the way to $20,000, which is a massive support level since it is the all-time high reached in the 2017 bull run. A fall to $20,000 would also allow the RSI oscillator to reach oversold readings.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by cryptohopper