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russian rates bonds and stocksHi all! I feel the approach of good times in Russia!!💓 On the chart - at the top in black is the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, next to it in blue - the yield rates on short-term bonds, at the bottom - the RTS. There will be a meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation soon and everyone will be given the message that “the Central Bank should raise the rate by 2%.” Short debt is already trading at 18%+. How to practically apply this? The phase of raising rates always ends for stocks with a vigorous decline, a bang. The shares follow the RGBI index, so clients do not have any Russian shares. But! The main thing will begin after the Central Bank begins to reduce the rate - the stock market in currency terms can grow by 100..300% in €£$ It would be better for conservative comrades at this moment of lowering rates to withdraw money from deposits and invest in long bonds, both corporate and government. While we are in no hurry to switch to rubles and Russian shares, we need to wait - corrections - a real decrease in profitability on the Russian market (see two-year plans, ticker RU02Y) - changing the Central Bank’s narrative to lower rates.
ECONOMICS:RUINTR
by Vitaliy_Lebedev
MOEX Russia Index. The epic 52-weeks breakthrough expectedRussia’s trapped domestic investors push stock market to 2-years high. Russia’s stock market (so-called, Moscow Exchange Index MOEX:IMOEX ) has climbed recently to its highest level in 2 years as domestic retail investors with nowhere else to go snap up the dividend-paying stocks that sold off heavily following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A rise of more than 100 per cent since March, 2022 low has pushed the MOEX index to levels last hit in early February 2022, before Russian President Vladimir Putin announces so-called "special military operation" that sent Russia’s equity market into freefall. The market’s partial rebound over the two years has come despite the imposition of countless western sanctions designed to cripple Russia’s financial system. The Kremlin responded to the measures by blocking most foreign traders from exiting their investments and capping the amount of money Russians can stash in foreign bank accounts. Due to U.S. Department of Treasury and Euroclear sanctions, money is trapped. Where do you put it but on the exchange? Deprived of investment opportunities abroad (because of stupid, a nazi-like sanctions), Russians have piled their savings into the likes of Lukoil, Gazprom and Sberbank, which combined account for about 40 per cent of the stock market’s total value. “Russian retail investors have always been about dividends,” said Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank. The Russian stock market’s recent rally bears some resemblance to the surprisingly strong performance of the Borsa Istanbul 100 last year. Russia’s economy has also held up better than expected. For many domestic Russian retail investors, nothing has changed compared to before the conflicted started, as the economy is doing OK. Big dividend payers like state-owned Sberbank, whose shares are up 71 per cent trailing 12 months, are attractive to most Russians and now they’re some of the few investment options available.  Even so, foreign investors not banned by sanctions have kept well clear of the Moex since an exodus last February, when central bank figures show non-residents shed about Rbs170bn ($2.2bn) worth of Russian stocks. Trading volumes on the Moex slumped 41 per cent year on year in 2022. There is a “close-to-zero chance” that foreigners whose Russian holdings have in effect been frozen will be allowed to sell out of their positions. Perhaps there could be an artificial settlement, some kind of exchange for holdings frozen for Russian investors outside of Russia. In technical terms, IMOEX graph is near to break 52-weeks highs, following 26-weeks SMA, with further upside opportunities to reach 4000 points and new historical highs.
RUS:IRUS
by Pandorra
Russia - RTS$ Index - Does this suggest War will go end? Does this suggest War will go end? A multi-year triangle gives us a clue. Triangles are one of the most recognizable patterns in the Elliott Wave Principle. As with all wave patterns, they occur at every time scale and the large-degree triangles are especially interesting because they often contain a notable socionomic element. Large-degree triangles in rallies are bear markets. Sideways movement in nominal terms means that, with consumer price inflation generally positive, in real terms, market value is being lost. Large-degree triangles during stock market rallies are manifestations of a negative social mood. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the ends of triangles often correspond with a news event of a social action that has been driven by this negative mood.  The chart above shows the Russian Trading System Index. This is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of 50 Russian stocks traded on the Moscow Exchange, calculated in U.S. dollars. As such, it takes into account the performance of the Russian ruble as well as the stock market. Since 2008, the index appears to have traced out a multi-year triangle, with the final wave ((E)) down now in operation. Notice that it was towards the end of the decline in wave ((C)) of the triangle that Russia made its first incursion into Ukraine in August 2014, escalating it further in November of that year. Fast forward to 2022, and with over 190,000 Russian troops in on Ukraine, another incursion happened. Nevertheless, Russian President Putin states that he has no intention to invade other European countries. Given the Elliott wave pattern, and what appears to be the waxing anger of the final wave lower in social mood, we take those statements with a bucket-full of salt. This sociometer is anticipating that a dramatic social action it's coming to an end?
RUS:RTSILong
by ferGOD
2
Big Russian long is comingRussian equities look really good at the end of 2020 & 2021-2025! We take into account declining dxy and rising em currencies, sector rotation and increasing demand for commodities in china, with a favorable pace of capex L-shaped recovery in the energy sector... we also expect reduction of political risks in Russia more, than in other em... the recovery of the Russian economy after the 2008 crisis was frozen in 2014 due to the "sanctions wars"... - in the context of the end of the pandemic and the change in the socio-political paradigm.., we expect the growth of Russian economy (next 8 years) and the growth of equities (next 5 years)...
INDEX:RTSILong
by MITCapital
1
Russian RTS index: Worth to watch itLarge triangle could emerge to shape a huge consolidation. Last wave E down is in progress. The trick is that it could be over already as last wave within a triangle could be short. On the other hand it could retest the downside support to complete the pattern in the 650-700 area. This option coincide with my idea that oil and ruble will drop one more time. After that another strong passing move (impulse) could start there to reach 3000. Russia ain't gonna die, it will be worth to buy.
RUS:RTSILong
by aibek