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Rty!

Feels like the market is coiled up like a spring Bulls take a position, get trapped; bears jump in and get trapped as well. A coil. Stops are placed. As they should. If the coil breaks out, half the crowd will quickly be wrong and bail. The market will eventually pick a way, discover price. Up down, cant do sideways forever. Crypto is rising, cpi is slowing. gasoline is cheaper. Cnn sentiment index is at 'greed". Percentage of stocks above moving averages is elevated. Vix is in downtrend and low end of range. Valuation is still above historical 15 PE and shiller PE is near 29. Many stocks are at 20 plus PEs, especially large caps, despite analyst show slower growth. old trader sayings: "from failed moves come fast moves" "stocks move in the direction that hurts the most people" "stocks always go up" "buy high and sell higher" Sound financial guidance recommends you only invest money you wont need for 5 years or more. Good luck and dont risk money you can't afford to lose. QQQ RTY IWM
TVC:NDQ
by optionfarmers
6
RTY partial update for the next Jan 16th week I hope everyone is having a great weekend. RTY is in the bull channel all week, similar to NQ’s rising wedge. As you can clearly see, RTY is way oversold on the 4h chart (MACD, RSI); this will get a strong rejection of the next resistance zone imo Looking at the cycle,s we still can push into Tuesday am open to test the major trendline around 1915-18 (depending on landing time). At the same time, it can fall apart straight from the open. I think we extend on Sunday (gap up?) or into Monday (Futures will be trading open till noon) - The primary support and target for the next week is 1847-52, from where (if it holds by the 20th) we should see a last push up into the Jan 24th high. If that support is broken, it should test the 1800 level and below next. - The target box for the final move-up is at 1542.5-1952.5RTY. ........ SPX and NQ will be updated on the site Enjoy your weekend
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by RealTima
1
RTY Short IdeaThe RTY one hour time frame is in a channel. The market is near the top of the channel. As long as the market stays below the top of the channel. It is expected the market to push bearish towards the bottom of the channel. Entry: counter trend line break bearish below the top of the channel. STOP: In the buy zone above the entry. LIMIT: 1756.7 Once or if the one hour time frame gives the entry. As long as the market stays below the top of the channel. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and look for tunnel trader short, chandelier trader short, and or destination trader short ideas towards the one hour price target.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by Traders-Agency
Stocks can go higher, but how much higher?I will start by sharing a Twitter poll, which shows the sentiment we are seeing now. Most think we are going lower. Therefore, the market could go higher in the short term. twitter.com I believe our target is the critical breakdown level that was never retested on the chart above. The maximum upside is the R3 Monthly Pivot + Yearly Pivot, which will most likely reject the price. Recession or no recession, the market has room to the upside for reasons different from what most people think. Won't get into these things here, as I want to keep this idea simply about the key targets I have for stocks. For Nasdaq, it is hard to tell how high we will go as there is more than one target. For the S&P500 and the Russell below, the targets are very clear. However, for QQQ - NDX - NQ, more than one gap must be filled. Based on the above, I expect the market to top about 6% higher from here, and potentially as much as 10% for the Nasdaq 100.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BitcoinMacro
SPY / ES / SPX - Market Structure & PostureWeekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere. The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the Dollar is dethroned. Sell Side has lifted the CBOE P/C to (.82). Please note after the brutal June 17th 4X - we reversed very hard the following Monday. For Roll out the Options Curve - it's muted Frankly. Traders took their Bags, packed up, and headed off to parts unknown. That said... Bulls may have a chance to hold and to have... "may" - as horrific as it looks, Wall Street may surprise with a short Countertrend to shake off the Late chasers. Again it is "may" not will - It is, however, exactly what I would do. There simply isn't enough Capital to transfer in the leveraged deep end of the Pool. It seems there is another attraction elsewhere for now - unaware of any real contests outside of the Lounge, but the lizards are somewhere, for certain. Sentiment everywhere is pure doom, gloom, and kaboom. Understandably so after Teton Jerry and CPI - it's been a brutal month for Buyers. Wrecked and Raked at every turn. ______________________________________________________________________________ Here's O/I for SPY into Month End by Expiry: SPY 9/19 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/21 Exp - Moderate Participation (FOMC) / VIX Roll/Settle Complete 4 PN EST on 9/20) SPY 9/23 Exp - 360 Participation @ ~70K SPY 9/26 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/28 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/30 Exp - Very High Participation @ 390 @ 102K / 385 @ 134K / 370 @ 143K / 350 @ 120K October Monthly Expiry needs those traveling to parts unknown, requiring some time to re-engage. It is important to note the early & largest entry for October was 372 Puts. On to the Chart ______________________________________________________________________________ Charts are simple messy, mixed, and have the appearance of that "double bottom" in trade and quickly... which may be why it doesn't happen. The KEY Line in the Sand is not the Lows, it is the dip in below 3588 - that is a number so please commit it to memory, breaking it.. assure a return to far lower lows, but over time. We completed Day 21 of this downside Crush from Wall Street. The Financial Media has been abuzz about multiple contractions after spending weeks supporting "Pivot Chatter" and, surprise, "Multiple Expansion" - remarkable anyone listens. For "Time" we need a breather... soon. it's important to remember the ES defended the FHWB - all-time highs to lows @ 3849.50 @ 3853. Structurally - it looks bleak. I mean look at it... it's terrible. Longer Term, even worse - but that is for later, for now, it's interesting... and it is quite possible we get a larger counter-trend Squeeze developing this week. A very nasty one... quite possibly. RSI STO supports its development near term. Best to be agile and not be caught offsides, as fear is grinding lower - currently @ 36 as the September Vix settles on - Powell the 21st. Jerry's arrival Wednesday with 75BPS most likely, as 100BPS I was looking for may be split to the November FOMC as it appears to be 75BPS as well. The Ministry of Financial Truth was out early in the week touting100 only to hear JPM quash that with "The Fed isn't going to raise 100BPS, but 75BPS". We will see, I'm non-plussed with Forward Rates trading @ 4.5%. Yields have gone vertical... never a good thing, not ever. Institutions apparently now consider the 1 & 2-year pristine collateral. I had to laugh when Bloomberg touted - "Yes but the 30/90 Day are not inverted~!" Oh, Hooray for this - perhaps it's the fact Yellen curtailed issuance to non-existent and the Market for the very short end of the Curve... is not trading any real liquidity. Something is going to give - but in a most unusual way. Yes, valuations will be corrected further. Of this there is little doubt, it's how it occurs that traders seize. Wall Street enjoys a nice lift ahead of EPS Season... with Powell stuck squarely in the middle. ______________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
S&P500, ES, NQ, QQQ, SPX, SPY Nasdaq about to go up for big falli dont know how SEO for tradingview works... I posted about the buying before the friday close when nq had dropped to 11800 and everyone was extremely bearish... i posted this idea which you can see here but its not ranking; hence I am posting this again we have broken below sept 7 low.... the sentiment is extremely bearish but the evil plan is to take the price up and squeeze every short before dumping... already the friday ended up in green daily pin bar and we look good to go
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by EIP-EverythingIsPlanned
2
SPY SPX ES / Traders Flip the ScriptHigher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows at the 390.85 Level. 394 is backtesting Support 399.50 is the initial Resistance. Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer Credit @ 3 PM EST. "We're committed to maintaining our Policy" Note - the Markets prefer stable to lower Rates, of late... this has not been present. Should Powell provide Happy Color and TNX begins to move lower. Powell's soothing IF there is to be such 399.50 squeeze comes into the Trade. The Counter-Trend can morph into a further Squeeze and Meltup. _______________________________________________________________________ Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard spoke yesterday providing some Flip Syde to the Tape - covering all the bases with a positive Traders uptake. Large Traders took advantage off the recent lows and began bidding SPX for the squeeze while Retail began to follow their thesis of Lower Lows and a retest of the Lows - AAII reached nearly 51%. ________________________________________________________________________ X Sectors in the S&P staged a large relief rally with the exception being XLE for obvious reasons as Crude and Oil Majors were hammered lower. Crude ended the day down 5%+ while the DX was lower on EU Rate Decision front runs. We are one week away from VIX Roll beginning and it appears there is an early retreat for Time to M2/V2 aka October. The VIX Floor remains 20.50 / 28 the pivot for Higher. VVIX in decline creates a gush of the potential onrush of VX Bids - 93.58 is the Pivot. Bills, Notes, and Bonds saw a slight retreat, even TLT saw the 20 Year Yield provide reprieve - coming off the 3.75s for 20 Year Yields (Implied). DX can pull back to 108.50. ________________________________________________________________________ Market Internals during this shortened week, Wednesday was simply more Positive then Tuesday was Negative. NYSE TICKs were sporadic and inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday firmed the Tick. Buying activity was not purely Sellers on Coverbuys, there was newer organic buying. A positive for the Buyers (Bulls) which may digest ahead of Friday's Expiry or simply explode higher on the cross of 399.50, Bulls do not want to lose 394.00 - and the Trendline will need to provide extreme support. Apple's big event... a sleeper IMHO. New Camera - Wide Angle. Price Points that will reduce their continuing Cult of Buyers. Marginal users are simply moving to Android and away from the Apple Ecosystem. They are discovering a better Value proposition for their needs - Apple's Global Market Share continues to decline markedly. Apple needs to see 160.25 - 156.50 as the Breakup Level. Calls remain in Balance for Friday @ 51.7% ________________________________________________________________________ Let's see how Powell presents this morning, he will drive the week end finish. Good Luck and Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
3
SPY / SPX / ES - Shortened Week AheadAugust did not end well for Buyers. Rate Creep across the curve applied pronounced pressure. RISK OFF is in trade across all Sectors within the X Complex. TNX from a Rate perspective - Rate instability and lower rates? At present, No. Bond VX is kicking up. It is however not damaging Banks as of yet, Financials are hanging on... slightly. Will the VIX Spike to 38 to 41? The ES would need to collapse to and through 3600, SPY clearly to new lows. VVIX is seeing the out-of-control setup - Few Puts in SPY, Few participants in VIX Calls due to IV. Prices sit at the most Pivotal area. Volimes are the main takeaway. Cumulative NYSE TICK took us sideways into the Close. Is the selling slowing down... that will depend on whether we see compression this week within a trading range. Friday was a Trending Day. Can Buyers Create Balance here? It will require a SOH on the SELL SIDE. Market Internals need to HOLD. Look below and fail is open as well. 11 of the past 19 September's ended up with 8 ending Down. The past 20 years have been highly volatile and I find it a generational approach more relevant than the overall historical as HFT/ALGO Trading has become dominant with increased Volatility - It's my approach this September. Alladin will be extremely busy this Month - chalking up further gains for Blackrock. The Quarterly close will provide important answers to a Trend in decline at present. It is somewhat overstretched on OSCs, but Summation Indexes have more work to do. This can provide ever-increasing Volatility as we see the VIX Curve pricing in expanding VX for several months. VIX - % Contango SEP M1 @ 3.90% OCT M2 @ 1.80% NOV M3 @ 0.37% DEC M4 @ 3.30% JAN M5 @ 0.25% FEB M6 @ 0.82% MAR @ Par with FEB _________________________________________________________________________________________ Year to Date - August opened the Dunk Tank once Powell delivered his May FSR Objective affirmation for Asset Prices and Interest Rate Forward Guidance. Winners: Energy + 30.10 % Utilities + 5.64 % Losers: Consumer Non-Cyclical -6.55 % Financial -10.81 % Transportation -15.08 % Basic Materials -15.26 % Technology -31.79 % Healthcare -26.92 % Consumer Discretionary -26.06 % Services -21.44 % Capital Goods -20.45 % Retail -18.52 % A very brutal 2022 into the month of September - where Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes are within poor Structure. August SPY Monthly provided a very nasty inverted Hammer. Sellers stepped up in spades at the Highs and Sold to the opening Print, and through the Opening Print - to close on lows. September's opening print did not hold the lower Body Bar on Friday - a poor close to the week with options settlement into the Cash Session. Buyers were non-responsive at best. Sellers sold through on increasing volume for the 3rd consecutive day. September's big events are ahead - the 13th CPI. Powell will provide color commentary on the 21st. _________________________________________________________________________________________ Last Month's Price action served to expand the range for Major Indices. Monthly timeframes continue to hold Lower Highs, not a good look from the June Lows at present. The 379.92 Level is the .382 and Pivotal for the Month of September, it is presently the initial implied Lower Range for the SPY on the confirmed break and closing below the Trend Line Support. SPY 50% resides at 349.12 - the opening to a larger and lower low - into the Gap Fill @ 338.50. Obviously larger targets below on increased panic and further Selling. Price is currently sitting on top of what was prior support. _________________________________________________________________________________________ I have cautioned for some time, Rates were a distraction too far larger issues within the Global Economy. Repeatedly. There are 3 legs to this stool. Forward EPS, which remains incredibly high based upon earnings projections and their required adjustment too far lower expectations. These have been partially priced in after Powell dropped the Hammer. There is more work to do there. QT remains a recycling operation - in through the out door with the appearance of an aggressive FED - while advancing CBDC via FED NOW/FED DIRECT at an increasing pace for Rollout. This and 41067 won't bode well for Crypto IMHO. Simply adding to the avalanche of impending exits which can be triggered by any panic in trade. _________________________________________________________________________________________ After large declines for all Major Indices... we've never seen a real Flush down panic, not one. This is a once in 100 years Bear Market and it will be difficult to navigate as the Algorithms are growing increasingly predatory. Be careful out there, reduce Size and be on guard for increasing VX in September. Bearish Sentiments @ AAII are rising to 50.6% again. Stop runs on trailers and catching traders offsides should be anticipated. We will see if the breakdown hammers this lower or price can manage to consolidate in a larger range this week - expanding to the downside but providing outsized squeezes based on the Gamma / Delta. _________________________________________________________________________________________ A Break of 388.96 has the potential and higher probability of creating a massive flush down and panic move to the downside. Price is currently sitting on top of DOM Support or what many refer to as a Volume Node, I'm old, Depth of Market (DOM) is my preferred nomenclature. 3 Weeks of selling favors the Sellers - expected moves will produce lower Highs in Trend. Daily DT is another large Lower Low. The Daily TF is the confluence with the Trendline @ 390.85 - BREAKING THIS will get nasty. Buyers will absolutely need to defend early this Week, 399.50 may limit the upside in the Range. 379 to 399.50 is the Larger Range this week. 408.25 breaks a Potential Bear Flag. Sector Support appears to be a Risk OFF in ALL Sectors. HYG will provide leading indications as will XLF - breakdowns here would be very NEGATIVE. Can Buyers consolidate here... we will see. Take care and be cautious - trade Safe, Lower highs in the XLK will provide entry into the Trend.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
5