Get started

Rty!

No one is safe when the floor falls out!UBS buys Credit Suisse, central banks liquidity provision, and a massive repricing in rates marked a significantly volatile week. As the storm of bank contagion continues to brew, one index in particular is trading unlike the others! We’re talking about the Nasdaq here. Trading higher while its peer indexes get beaten down in a somewhat unusual fashion. Another way to look at it, since this February, S&P500, Dow Jones & Russell 2000 is down 5%, 7% & 13% respectively, while the Nasdaq is pretty much flat. In one of our previous posts, we highlight how the ratio of Nasdaq/S&P500 topped higher than the 2000s Dot-com bubble. While the ratio traded lower after we covered it, this recent move basically put the ratio back to the level when we first highlighted it. The ratio also traded cleanly off the .236 Fibonacci line and the trend support. With the ratio now at the previous resistance level, and extended from the trend line, this could present another opportunity to consider a short. Interestingly if we use a Logarithm y-axis, the upward trend of the ratio becomes clearer. Here, we see all 3 ratios at critical resistance levels and away from the long-term trend. While it’s a bit challenging to pinpoint the exact reason, we think the chorus of lower target rates and more cuts priced in has propelled the possibly interest rate-sensitive benchmark higher. But, when the floor falls out, it doesn’t matter if you can jump the highest! We think the current springboard for the Nasdaq Index can only take it so far and here’s why: If a true contagion event does play out, then the sell-off is likely not going to discriminate. And looking at the 2000s period, Nasdaq continued to tumble while the fed paused and cut rates. Of course, we’re not blind to the fact that the 2000s was a whole different era and the crisis was driven by a tech bubble, so the Nasdaq would of course, face a larger correction. Our point here is to highlight that in a true contagion event, sell-offs do not discriminate. On the flip side, if a contagion event does not play out, the Fed is still faced with Inflation which has been way above its target. Not forgetting the Fed’s dot plot terminal rate at 5.1% and a hawkish Fed chair just days before the SVB bank collapse, if the coast is clear of any banking crisis then the path for further rate hikes or holding rates higher for longer could come back into play. Both of which could trigger a repricing in the Nasdaq. Given the opportunistic setup in all 3 index ratios, it is possible to establish a short on any of them. Using the Nasdaq Futures and S&P500 Futures as an example we could: - Short 5 Nasdaq 100 Futures - Long 2 S&P 500 Futures In this trade set-up, the dollar value of the two legs of trade will remain equal, despite the direction in which the Nasdaq or S&P moves. If NQ future moves by 1 point, the short leg of the trade (5 lots of NQ futures) would change by 100 USD. So does the dollar value in the long leg of the set-up (2 lots of ES futures). The same setup is possible with the Micro Nasdaq and S&P500 Futures as well, whereas in the latter case, the 1-point move is equal to 10 USD instead of 100 USD. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is much lower. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
Elliott Wave Projects Russell (RTY) Should Resume HigherCycle from 12.20.2022 low in Russell (RTY) ended with wave 1 at 2016.97 as a 5 waves impulse structure. The Index then pullback in wave 2. Subdivision of wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave (i) ended at 1986.3 and wave (ii) ended at 2015.60. Wave (iii) ended at 1938.8, wave (iv) ended at 1984.20, and final leg wave (v) ended at 1906.20 which completed wave ((a)). Rally in wave ((b)) ended at 1970.30 with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure Up from wave ((a)), wave (w) ended at 1964.1 and dips in wave (x) ended at 1921.30. Wave (y) higher ended at 1970.30 which completed wave ((b)). The Index has resumed lower in wave ((c)) with internal subdivision as an impulse. Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 1931.3 and wave (ii) ended at 1968.60. Wave (iii) ended at 1885.4, and wave (iv) ended at 1921. Expect the Index to resume lower within wave (v) of ((c)) to complete wave 2. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)), which comes at 1791 – 1860.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Feels like the market is coiled up like a spring Bulls take a position, get trapped; bears jump in and get trapped as well. A coil. Stops are placed. As they should. If the coil breaks out, half the crowd will quickly be wrong and bail. The market will eventually pick a way, discover price. Up down, cant do sideways forever. Crypto is rising, cpi is slowing. gasoline is cheaper. Cnn sentiment index is at 'greed". Percentage of stocks above moving averages is elevated. Vix is in downtrend and low end of range. Valuation is still above historical 15 PE and shiller PE is near 29. Many stocks are at 20 plus PEs, especially large caps, despite analyst show slower growth. old trader sayings: "from failed moves come fast moves" "stocks move in the direction that hurts the most people" "stocks always go up" "buy high and sell higher" Sound financial guidance recommends you only invest money you wont need for 5 years or more. Good luck and dont risk money you can't afford to lose. QQQ RTY IWM
TVC:NDQ
by ValuePig
6
RTY partial update for the next Jan 16th week I hope everyone is having a great weekend. RTY is in the bull channel all week, similar to NQ’s rising wedge. As you can clearly see, RTY is way oversold on the 4h chart (MACD, RSI); this will get a strong rejection of the next resistance zone imo Looking at the cycle,s we still can push into Tuesday am open to test the major trendline around 1915-18 (depending on landing time). At the same time, it can fall apart straight from the open. I think we extend on Sunday (gap up?) or into Monday (Futures will be trading open till noon) - The primary support and target for the next week is 1847-52, from where (if it holds by the 20th) we should see a last push up into the Jan 24th high. If that support is broken, it should test the 1800 level and below next. - The target box for the final move-up is at 1542.5-1952.5RTY. ........ SPX and NQ will be updated on the site Enjoy your weekend
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by RealTima
1
RTY Short IdeaThe RTY one hour time frame is in a channel. The market is near the top of the channel. As long as the market stays below the top of the channel. It is expected the market to push bearish towards the bottom of the channel. Entry: counter trend line break bearish below the top of the channel. STOP: In the buy zone above the entry. LIMIT: 1756.7 Once or if the one hour time frame gives the entry. As long as the market stays below the top of the channel. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and look for tunnel trader short, chandelier trader short, and or destination trader short ideas towards the one hour price target.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by Traders-Agency
Stocks can go higher, but how much higher?I will start by sharing a Twitter poll, which shows the sentiment we are seeing now. Most think we are going lower. Therefore, the market could go higher in the short term. twitter.com I believe our target is the critical breakdown level that was never retested on the chart above. The maximum upside is the R3 Monthly Pivot + Yearly Pivot, which will most likely reject the price. Recession or no recession, the market has room to the upside for reasons different from what most people think. Won't get into these things here, as I want to keep this idea simply about the key targets I have for stocks. For Nasdaq, it is hard to tell how high we will go as there is more than one target. For the S&P500 and the Russell below, the targets are very clear. However, for QQQ - NDX - NQ, more than one gap must be filled. Based on the above, I expect the market to top about 6% higher from here, and potentially as much as 10% for the Nasdaq 100.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BitcoinMacro