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RTY - Millennium Tower IndexThe Russell 2000 continues to expend energy in a large Range which remains in a weakened condition. 2282.50 was rejected. There is little to support this as the Parking Lot is being vacated. Small to Mid Caps are not faring well in the present Environment with little reason to Position for 2022. Slowly Sinking into a LArger Sell is ahead after the next Retracement. ___________________________________________________________ RTY / M2K will Ourperformi to the Downside.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by HK_L61
3
Best places to go long or short the RussellThe Russell is even cleaner than the Nasdaq. Two major buy / sell areas on the chart. So far the Russell has been playing the game of chop. Sweep the lows, sweep the highs and move in the other direction. The same way we had a failed breakout, we could get a failed break down. Best place to sell 2310-2360. Resistance/Gap combo and the real direction for now is down, so it is with the main trend. 2200 & 2080 are decent for short term trades. As we go down they are good for a bounce. If they get broken they are good to put shorts if the market bounces from lower. Best place to buy long term is 1980-2030. Extreme support combo with 1. Untested breakout / gap, 2. Key Bollinger bands, 3. 400 DMA
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by BitcoinMacro
RTY - ahh... faked you out.... not higher.... lower comingRTY - "everyone" (including me) was faked out by the false breakout. Now it's back into the long term wedge (also appears to really have been a large ending diagonal or Wyckoff Distribution pattern). With the breakdown of Crypto over the weekend, RTY is heading to back test some prior levels. This will be healthy in the long run, but painful for those heavily long. Based on the 2 Anchored VWAPs placed on this chart, I see a MINIMUM pullback to the 1950 area on RTY. Further basic Elliott Wave analysis may suggest some slightly lower zones as possible. Regardless, the AVWAP zone shown here will be good for AT LEAST a hefty bounce.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by RBS2024
A good place to start scaling for a bounceI think this is a good place to start scaling into the RTY longer-term or short-term potential bounce. In 6 months we will be at a very different place. With the proper position sizing you could start scaling in 5-10% of your planned investment in Russell if you don't have any position already. Risk reward potential is greater that it one day will retest any of the levels above. There are some nice trades that can be made with this.
CAPITALCOM:RTYLong
by DevilsIslandBoy
NQ - Daily: Price is now in the "Box"Wire to Wire Melt-ups is the very definition of an Aggressive Extension. The price moved accordingly within NQ Extension to perfectly hit its first area of Resistance the Heavy Depth of Market Distribution for the next Wave down within the downturn off the High @ 15,708.50. We are now roughly 650 Ticks from the September Highs. or conversely as little more than halfway off the Lows @ 143567.25. The same 2 Draw are shown in the FIB Ladders 1. Ledge @ 15399 to 14367 2. ATH @ 15708 to 14367 The symmetry illustrates how time functions as Intersects are important, they are Pivots for Price in Time when defined correctly, it requires patience to hunt them down if you are relatively inexperienced. e Eventually, you will find them with ease. Within the Symmetry, we see the "Box" - although it will appear tilted, it is our larger retracement Range IF and Only IF this level of resistance is broken and continues to Hold. We have Gaps above and Gaps below, by design... it creates uncertainty, again, by design. We also have, more importantly - the Retracement we were looking for Price attempting to Fill the Gap above. We do not know if this will be a Gap & GO or a Gap & Trap. We see on the smaller Timeframes October 21 as an important Time... On the larger Daily Timeframe - we see November as important. Our Box has a boundary for Time and within it there are a number of dates now which began popping up last week to assert themselves on Shorter Durations. The VIX Crush is underway as the VVIX is being pushed back into our Corner, albeit slowly... ever so slowly. The VXN has 18.60 as the next lower Objective. Price is either going to Over-Throw or consolidate. Typically extensions this Aggressive either continue of Fail in rather Epic proportions. Friday's are always fun, they tend to relieve the most capital from both sides during Expiry... Put holders have been smoked, the large number of Call buyers wants their Payday.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
NQ - Daily Setup / D1 = 15708-14367 & D2 = 15399 - 14367Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will tell us everything we need to know. Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will inform us of what we need to know. Patience. _____________________________________________________ My belief is we see Price head to the 200SMAs and break them after another Counter Trend off the 200SMAs, towards the 400SMAs. This would land the ES at 3850 to 3912 to 3982... The NQ the mid to lower 12Ks. The YM, 28.2 to 30 to 31K. We caught the easy $ on our projected decline... Hanging on to it here and giving it time to resolve... is wise IMHO. There is an extraordinary amount of Fundamental Influences ahead. They have yet to be told, we have covered them repeatedly. Go Back and read prior commentaries if you recently arrived, thank you. The VIX and VXN - the levels are in prior commentary... This will be today's only update as more information needs to be observed for Price. I'll leave you with, what else... Patience. Thank you and have a Blessed Weekend. - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
18
VXN - NQ Volatility / 30 Day VX Expectations - ES YM RTYWe see how important the Ledge remains. We traded Support first thing this morning, this is where and when we Closed our NQ SELLs. The balance of the Day was SOH. The intent is clear, the Hourly was over-sold, the Weekly remains deadly. These are enormous ranges and again, IF there is not a high probability setup with a clearly defined trade plan. 9/10 its a loser. NQ did exactly as indicated within the Range. The ES, although the Range expanded to 4140 (200SMA) to 4388, it did dip in @ the Upper Trend Line by a few Ticks. The VIX gave up the Ghost, as indicated there is a serious effort to keep it under control AND we have 10 trading days to Roll/Settlement. This is the sweet spot for Counter Trends to develop. YM / RTY - exact same trades... RTY is always used to park $ as it is easy to manipulate due to its weightings. We suggested this CT would evolve and patience was required as it can trade up to the Ledge, a Gap Fill, remains possible, but not probable. Were the Indices to Fill their overhead Gaps, it would imply a longer correction duration... this is why patience is so very important. It is best to permit the Trade to come to you as opposed to chasing it. This generally ends badly for most traders. There is far more Downside to come as the 200SMAs are wide open now. Observe where the 21/34/50EMAs are, know these levels, they are extreme in importance and the Algo's always using them for Fills. We have 2 competing BOTs, one - short term duration - and the other attempting larger fills on Daily Time Frames, when they are not competing, as we have observed, the ST ALGO runs the Range until the DT ALGO gets its Fill.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
2
NQ - ES YM RTY ZN TLT / Final Commentary - 10/7/2021 Macro Observations As the Global Economy continues to weaken, DEBT is beginning to weigh heavily on the same. Inflations have many Vectors - Monetary, Fiscal, and Confidence. Throughout the history of the United States, the "Debt Ceiling" has always been a Glass Roof. At present, decades of abuse since the 1980s have come home to roost. The result of multiple stimulus measures aimed at combating the pandemic's economic impact... Congress will run a budgetary shortfall this year equivalent to 13.4% of GDP or approximately $3.1 Trillion. It is axiomatic, Fiscal and Monetary Policies have failed. The crisis will continue to worsen over the coming years, 2022 it will reach its zenith and fail in the most unimaginable ways. Confidence is nearing all-time lows. A Panic is in the air within the "Investing Complex" - it has just begun for Retail Investors. Buy the Dip, the FED has a Put under the Equities Markets is slowly, ever so slowly giving way to the recognition, All is not at all well. The "Everything Must Go Sale" is gaining momentum. And by "everything" - we, indeed, mean everything for reasons which have been discussed repeatedly here within this sliver of TV. The Boat will tip, list, and capsize into 2022, for now, a healthy correction is ahead as indicated. Higher rates are axiomatic, the Federal Reserve will begin to move further into the Shadows with its Operations. Dark Pools will continue to position into the Sell. It won't be The End, it will, however, "feel" like it. There will be one last high to put bring an end to the Longest Bull Market in History. That will be THE END. For now, Buckle up, the Sportiness is ON. ______________________________________________________________________________________ NQ ES YM RTY ZN TLT The Nasdaq chart above illustrates the larger Daily Price Objective. How it gets there will be quick and dirty, a rather nasty affair as reality sets in, takes hold and dumps the sordid mess on its collective head. Whether or not there is a consolidation zone prior to the large DUMP, will depend upon Distribution patterns and the Budget news cycle as well as the middle of the UST Curve, namely the 10 Year Note. It is not a no-mans land, but the very inflection point on the Yield Curve. It is overdue, for reasons we have covered repeatedly. Over and over and over to the point, they no longer bare repeating. Simply review the past several months of commentary to EDU yourself. We have grown wary of rehashing our Thesis. It has been proven correct and is now in Trade. It takes time to form a top, it is a process until it becomes an event. The Technical Conditions have been growing increasingly weak for several months. 3x and 4x Divergences have been building on Larger timeframes and are now beginning to assert themselves. It will remain choppy to Down and as October unfolds, the larger Sell will arrive. The ES & YM will follow the NQ, the YM will remain the Laggard as will RTY until rotational failure will occur. It is best to observe the Weekly and Monthly TF's there for levels. We believe the 200SMAs, as well, the 400SMAs come into play in October, no later than November. One fairly significant cleansing of Speculative Juices among the Retail Investing Herd. ZN & TLT, again, for reasons we have covered repeatedly are in a confirmed SELL. We believe the 10 Year Note Yield will see new highs, the ROCs we noted are gaining immense traction. An explosive move higher is unfolding. 139s will print on TLT, ZN could dive well into the 120s. Debt Obligations will demand higher rates at a time when the DEBT edifice itself is going to be difficult to string together. Pushing on a string comes to mind. Conventional Correlations are DOA, insisting they are functioning is simply ignoring reality. Yesterday is today shall be tomorrow... best of luck to you in this Dogma. Lagarde and Powell both speak this morning, furthering the All Digital agenda. We will be absent for a number of trading Sessions as we relocate our arrangements over the coming days. Hopefully, to return no later than October 7th. Be well - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
23
RTY- the downtrend goes on.I do not barely ever hold position when Friday close over weekend. But this time I did this and I also even added to my position close to close Friday. So I carry quite big position. I do this because all my technical analyse tell me market makes big down move on futures open. I admit I won't this weekend because always there is chance I to be wrong. But it works out. I sell half my big position at 2200 and now I have for sure a big profit. As big as usual month for me. For the trade detail see link below. Happy trading! Ms Bunny 💕
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
5
ES - When in doubt / Zoom OutThe ES MONTHLY Range is enormous, we see 1/5 ending @ 3588, 2/5 Ranged for less than 2 months prior to lifting off unimpeded for 7 Months. Month 8 did make a new high, although the 26 year probability of it holding and closing over is a low probability event as we indicated in early August. Many trading Paradigms have been tested and rejected within the Shorter Duration Timeframes. From my POV, the largest indication was the Break Away Gap in the DOW (YM) off 28,200. this had never occurred before - the anomoly at this level informed Traders, the Federal Reserve went ALL IN. And they did - M2 began an unprecedented move higher. The Longest Bull Market in History is within its Death Throes... the violence within Price will become even more extreme as we advance to the larger Bear Market ahead into 2022 after completing 5/5. It's what happens in between which should be of concern - what arrives thereafter is well beyond mere mortals ability to effect change. It will, no doubt in my mind alter Humanity itself in ways most all ill-prepared to conceieve. The United States has been successful in Exporting its "Culture" for decades, this too shall pass. Pride will give way to hubris at some point, by then it will be far too late to affect any menaingful change until a more rational generation takes up the challenge... perhaps. Many will simply give up. Between now and then, a great deal can occur. Death throes are violent affairs. The "Disclaimer" should read something like this: Price tends to behave irrationally within the current environment. All one can do is read the proverbial Tea Leaves - of which there are thousands... We are now trading the "Confidence Cycle" and we see how that collapsed in August. It is more akin to the large vessel in Harbor, slow to turn, methodical and not without challenges. Quite frequently over the past year, when we see Price dip-in to the 50SMA we see a violent rejection and retracement. We saw this 9 Days ago when the FED posted $12B in Coupon purchases to defend the Hourly "Death Cross' - it did not stick, but provided the Higher FIll for Wall Street and its friends only to move lower again. it is when we begin moving Down in rapid Extensions, out of Measured Moves... this is when the Indicies can become angry for a reversal. This is ahead into October. As noted in prior posts on several Timeframes from 15min, 4Hr, Weekly and now Monthly... we can devise a Trade Plan based upon entry into the larger Trend (Down) with the practical and only set of tools we have - Price/Data/Senitment. Drawdowns will be required, but will be rewarded. We see this in Bonds, patience... patience and furher patience. Setups requie time, money and patience. The Federal Reserve will do what it will to manage Price in to follow suit of the Data and Sentiment. We simply Obey, as this, again... is well out of our control. It's very Orwellian, dystopian and many other unseemly Nouns, Adjectives and Adverbs... those are for History to pen and stroke. The 4400 Level will be extreme in it's importance as should Price Fail within the 15min Falling Wedge, we can see the 100SMA being challenged next - the issue is every time this has cocurred, we have seen a reversal to defend the Uptrend. We are no Longer in an Uptrend. Anything can and will happen, we will need to be keen observers of a number of indications which were outlined in prior posts this weekend. There is no easy answer, none. Price will tell us evrything we need to know. Beyond Price, many of the Fundamental Vectors have been discussed repeatedly... in enough detail to priovide consideration(s) of the "Potential(s)" - this week is extreme in its importance. My intentions are to trade the Micro (15min) Objectives cautiously, not a Buyer, but a Seller. Buying the expected retracements has been wildly profitable, this too shall pass. We will limit any BTOs to 1/4 Size and now that we will no longer be able to Hedge SEP/DEC after Rollover, as the March spreads will be 120+ Ticks wide AND VX is price up Implied VX so the cost of PUTs are now begining to become less than desirable... the Challenges to Fix any poorly executed enteries - is negligible. In this type of environment, it is best to move slowly, methodically and observe the Tape. There is no substitute for Screen Time and observing the Key Periods when the Markets react. We have defined these times clearly - the "reaction times of day" - they should be well ingrained in those who are consistent readers of this Forum/Blog/Hub. Patience will be the best modalility for Trading this week, it will be quite violent. Be quick, book profits of size when you have them, DO NOT under any circumstances - OVER-Trade. It is temtpting to press Sells and let profits run when they are growing significantly. This week will take them away at some point, as the Volailtiy will cut both ways. We are closely watching the VIX at its upper Boundary of 22.52. As well, the VXN has been very reliable as an indicator for the NQ. Financials are a complete mess, we have BANK ranging between 4400 - 4500 and Yields becoming unsettled as the BOND Buyers missed an important Cross that has been setting up for several weeks. Bonds Sellers are in control now, Wednesday - Friday will confirm the BOND Markets issues. The Dollar will re-confirm them. Be well and Trade Cautiously - HK
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HK_L61
11
NQ - Weekly Downturn Objecitves - Macro CommentsWhere to begin as there are far too many Data Points within the Macros. Consumer Senitment dropped sharply last month. This is always a precedent to Downturns, it closed @ 71 for the Month of August. 86/100 years Price has tested the 200SMA 8 Monthly Bull Bars, very low proabability. 9 Monthly Bull Bars, extremely low probability as this has not occured in 60 Years. Asia has been in turmoil with the US Markets ignoring the signs from China our preferred vector for disruption after the EU collision. The Government shutdown can be prevented as the Votes exist, although $4.5 Trillion in spending is going to face obstacles at a time when benefits continue to expire. Bonds are, again, acting poorly against the FX Accident we are forecasting for Currencies - it is frankly difficult to refer to them as such as they no longer are given their underlying Debt Market creation is evaporating quickly. The DX is the leader. Those of you who are/remain regular readers know - My thesis is simple and direct with respect to Bonds - they will not catch the "Flight to Safety Bid" as they no longer are Safe. Instead, they will follow the Markets in a "Positive Correlatrion" to the Downside. Yields will begin to rise again. We see the 10Yr's YCC effort abating short term and failing intermeidate term. Housing will suffer a correction, as Credit itself is tightening - All Credit. The Semiconductor Supply Shortage has been played down imho, it is far more severe than is being touted. Q3 EPS will be an unmitigaed diasater for most of the TECH Arena, it will be comical to observe the excuses mount. Suddenly, very suddenly, it will become REAL. We see the Producer Price Index far exceeeding the Consumer Price Index by over 100%. Which implies Producer are NOT passing along the majority of Price Stresses building. In turn, the implications are HIGHER PRICES ahead, Inflation is NOT ABATING, but accelerating. Independent Producers are unable to compete. Most of the Restaruants I frequent have increased their Prices 30% in a short period of time. This is a wealthy community, on balance there is a large pool of high income earners who can afford to spend for necessities. Average incomes among the Professional class in TECH and Services earn $400K+. A $200 Dinner for 2 is "affordable" and keeps the decreasing number of survivors afloat, for now. They are YOLO Prime, it's all about the Dollars. And speaking of the Dollar, it is tee'd up to rise as the Flight to Safety, Gold will follow suit as well after it completes it's pattern. Equities, Bonds and Real Estate will all comply with the Downturn. There has been a high degree of Bond BTD for months on end, this will come to a decided end as TLT begins to trade to 139s over the coming several months. We see a 7, 9 to 13 week correction with the attendant "Flash Crash" panic moment where Retail exits after the sufferage begins to weigh. This is normal, cyclical and acceptable. It does not mean the Equities Markets will be cut in one half, we don't believe this based upon the present projections. Breaking 3588 on the ES would, however, give us pause. Rather, we see 4/5 completing near and between 200-400SMAs, a good panic Dip-In below the 200SMA's to provide Fuel for new highs as the FED will, no doubt 10X down on demands for Powell's follow-on at the FED to "Amp it up" - we call it the "make em gag for it" moment. That is ahead and quite frankly, Long will be the Trade - imho. 5/5 will complete and that will be the end of the Longest Bull Market in History. It should conclude in 2022. We shall see as a great deal depends upon how DEBT itself re-appears under new arrangements Globally. IS there a Risk we will retest the Highs? We do not believe so, at least nothing dramatic in terms of a Retracement as they are being SOLD Wholesale. The Bond Markets repsonse to the FED will be instrucitve and quite llikley very disappointing for the Buy the Bond Dip Echo Chamber. They fail to see their own demise. It makes a Market, for certain. We'll oppose the Long Bond Trade all day. 1.75% - 2.00% will do it. THE BOND MARKET WILL PRICE IN "INFLATION" - it is this simple. Time - it's next week or 5 weeks for the real reaction, we believe the shorter end panic unfolds as the waters continue to grow murky Globally. NExt's week's reaction can be A large RT or to and through the lows, straight down. Geopolitical Risks loom large as we have outlined, the ECB is simply done, out of bullets and facing immense distrust within the EU. France is prepping for Bastille V.2 - the French are becoming Militant. CASH ($USD) will continue to be Hoarded, another strike against the Bond Complex. The hoarding will continue to GROW. Reverse Repos and US Treasury actions are draining Liquidity and Bond Demand has been met witin the United States, it is Sovereigns who will see the lasrgets haricuts on their bids. Repos are going to roll over, again, BOND Negative. Gold - we see the pattern completing and Gold taking off to new highs. Silver will provide come clear indications for teh strength of the move and whether the Highs are retested. Deflatioanry forces will ulitmately have the desired effect for Gold Bugs, we are not there. The DX can and will cause probems in the short term for GOLD. The DX will be the flight to safety FIRST, not Gold and certainly not Silver as touted. The Gold/Silver Gurus - for the 40+ years I have traded it, are always out over their Predition Skis, not that they are wrong about Economic Conditions... but with respect to Hype, they are always ahead of themselves for 44 years and counting. Since 1977, when I began trading/accumulating Physical metals. The same Sh_t Show... every decade. It is amazing. On to the the ES... We have the Death Cross, we have seen rejection take place 3 times. 50 fails, 100 fails, 200 awaits. EMAs have rolled over. We have a failing wedge into the 1/5 around 4380 - perhaps ahead of the FED. Wednesday or ahead of it, we would need to see a large Counter-Trend Up o the FED. Traders need to be on guard... we can bottom out and rallying on Powell's Meme. Watch for the lower High for a short term reversal. 4400 to 4370 - this range can provide support SHORT TERM, which ONLY serves to provide the LOWER LOWS into a FLASH CRASH. OR It can simply power down on Bond Yileds blowing up and finally pushing through the YCC actions to 4100. 3850-3900 is KEY SUPPORT in the weekly timeframe. We'll know as we approach the follow-thru. For now, keeping an open mind to Price is best. VX is expanding... 35 - 40 for VIX is our overhead Objective, it can go far higher. Anything can trade for Price, it can also DUMP far more. They are attempting to prevent - Straight down. Crypto - has simply been used as a Dispencery for Illegal Laundering and a large Basket for Trading. Regulations will do the rest.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
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