RTY1!
RUSSELL Rally doesn't seem to seek correction any time soon.Russell 2000 is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.532, MACD = 34.900, ADX = 27.532) as the monthly candle is already as high as any in the last 12 months, despite being only on the 1st week. This bullish trend can keep going as this is the bullish wave of the long term Channel Up that started in March 2009 (housing bubble). We are already past a 1M MACD Bullish Cross and all 4 major bullish waves before had such a Cross to show. The minimum rise they gave was +81.48% and this is our target (TP = 3,000) until the end of 2025.
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Russell 2000 Rejects Demand Zone: Is It Time for Bullish Season?The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after testing a previous demand area. While many retail traders are still positioned for further downside, current market conditions suggest a possible contrarian opportunity for a long position.
Demand Area Rejection and Retail Sentiment
The Russell 2000 has recently encountered a strong demand zone that has historically acted as a reliable support area. The index's initial rejection from this level indicates potential buying interest, which could pave the way for an upward move. However, retail traders remain predominantly bearish, anticipating a continuation of the downtrend. This positioning often suggests that the majority expects more selling pressure, which could lead to a squeeze in the event of a reversal.
Why the Long Setup?
Contrarian Approach: When the majority of retail traders lean toward one side of the market, it often creates an opportunity to take a contrarian stance. With retail sentiment heavily skewed towards further downside, a long setup becomes increasingly appealing.
Historical Seasonality: Historical data over the past decade suggests a pattern of upward price movement for the Russell 2000 during this time of the year. The index has experienced notable gains in the fourth quarter in nine of the last ten years. This seasonal trend aligns well with the current technical setup, providing further confidence in a potential bullish move.
The Technical Picture
From a technical perspective, the Russell 2000 has shown resilience at the current demand zone, suggesting that buyers are stepping in. For a confirmed long setup, traders should watch for bullish candlestick patterns, such as an engulfing or hammer formation, on the lower timeframes or even the daily chart. This would provide confirmation that the reversal is underway.
Let’s see how the index performs over the next few sessions. Keep an eye on key levels, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Russel 2000. Rejection at the top, correction on the way?Probable correction on the RTY Russel 2000 index. Rising wedge and failing to break the prior top.
Support on every fibo level to the downside, with an ultimate floor on the monthly lower Mogalef bands the long term sideways channel, and the very long term trend line, all around the 1,600 area
RUSSELL 2000 will finish the year in style on the All Time High.Russell 2000 (RUT) has been giving us a lot of solid signals all year as it is following a highly symmetrical Cup pattern, which delivered last time (May 09, see chart below) an excellent bottom buy trade that effectively hit our 2293 Target:
As the 1M RSI has succeeded at maintaining a sustainable trend above its MA for almost 1 year (which is highly bullish), we make the Cup pattern wider to fit the whole sequence even the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle.
The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) continues to be the main Support, with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) the short-term one. We expect a quick test and then rebound towards the end of the year to 2465 (Resistance 2), which is effectively the market's All Time High.
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RUSSELL 2000 Strong buy on the 1st 1W Golden Cross in 3.5 years!The Russell 2000 (RUT) index gave us an excellent buy signal on June 19 (see chart below), hit our 2293 Target and immediately pulled-back to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line):
The established pattern on the long-term is a Channel Up that first drove the price to Resistance 1 (and our Target) and now guiding it to Resistance 2. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is providing the Higher Low support needed to sustain the Channel Up trend.
The key development this week is the formation of the first 1W Golden Cross since January 2021. We expect that to be enough to resume the Bullish Leg and post at least another +27% rise (as in October - December 2023). As a result our Target is 2400.
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Russell 2000 - COT Based Strategy Suggests Downside AheadDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Russell 2000 (RTY)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in RTY if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for equities to go down in September
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: POIV & UO Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
NASDAQ Time to move more aggressively to the tech sector!Nasdaq (NDX) may be underperforming on its August recovery relative to the other indices (S&P500 and Russell 2000) but as the monthly candle closes today, there is a very encouraging signal coming from an index ratio that shows that this may be the time to get heavier on tech.
We will use the Russell 2000 index (RUT) as it represents a wider array of companies and place it against Nasdaq on the RUT/NDX ratio. Naturally over the years (this 1M chart shows data since 2006), the ratio declines within a Channel Down as historically the riskier tech sector attracts more capital and grows more.
However there are instances where Russell gains more against Nasdaq. We are currently though at a time where this isn't the case as the ratio seems to be under a consolidation that on previous fractals (March 2015, September 2008) led to more decline, thus gains for Nasdaq.
As you can see, this movements can be grasped by the Sine Waves, though not perfectly, but still goo enough to understand the cyclical pattern we're in, also with the help of the 1M RSI Triangles.
Nasdaq (which is represented by the blue trend-line) has started massive expansion Channel Up patterns following this unique signal given by the RUT/NDX ratio. The first was right after the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom and the second during the 2015/ 2016 E.U., VW and Oil crisis.
As a result, this could be an indication that even though the last crisis we had was 2022 Inflation Correction, Nasdaq may be starting a new bullish wave of massive gains against the rest of stock indices.
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RUSSELL starting a 1 year rally at least, targeting 3500.Ten months (October 7 2023, see chart below) ago we made the ultimate buy call on Russell 2000 (RUT) based on a 15-year Cyclical pattern:
As you can see the index made a straight up rebound on the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), while at the same time holding the Previous All Time High (ATH) Support. Excluding the black swan event of COVID, the ATH Support Zones have held every time since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom, initiating the next Bull Phase of the Cycle.
This is representative of economic conditions thus far and this model shows that technically, we can only get higher from here. The index has just completed the 1st rebound phase (green ellipse) and is effectively supported by the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). The 3 times that this happened during this 15 year Cycle, a Channel Up followed that easily broke above the ATH and peaked the Cycle on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from ATH - bottom.
As a result, as long as the 1M MA50 holds, we are more bullish than ever on the Small Caps, targeting long-term 3500 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension).
Note: Every time the 1M RSI breaks above its MA trend-line again following a Bear Phase, the new Bull Cycle begins. We have displayed that with the ellipse patterns.
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IWM | Bullish AMEX:IWM
Resistance Levels:
There is a significant resistance level at around 224.02. The price needs to close above this level to confirm a breakout.
Another resistance level is at approximately 233.64.
Support Levels:
The immediate support level is the trendline, which has been acting as a resistance until now. This trendline is likely to act as a support if the breakout is confirmed.
A secondary support level can be seen at around 227.13.
Potential Targets:
If the price closes above 224.02, it signifies a breakout from the current price channel.
The first target after the breakout would be around 233.64.
The second target, based on the price projection, would be approximately 244.46.
Indicators:
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 63.34, which is above the neutral 50 level but not yet in the overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for upward movement.
The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend.
Volume: The volume seems consistent, supporting the upward price movement. Higher volume on a breakout above 224.02 would confirm the bullish sentiment.
Conclusion:
If IWM closes green today above 224.02, it indicates a breakout from the current price channel, suggesting a potential further upside. The first target would be around 233.64, followed by 244.46. This position could be highly profitable for call options and futures contracts if the breakout is confirmed and sustained.
RUSSELL 2000 to bottom soon on the 1D MA200.Last time we looked into Russell 2000 (RUT) on May 09 (see chart below), we expected a technical pull-back, and even though it gave one more week of upside, the index eventually did start to correct:
As mentioned then, we see similarities with the January - March 2022 Bear Flag but mirrored (Bull Flag). That pattern made a Double Bottom on the 1980 Symmetrical Support. Since however it was the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) that offered the most recent Support (April 15), we expect the Double Bottom to take place this time on it.
The 1955 symmetrical level would be a fair projection but overall even on the current prices, the index is a solid R/R buy opportunity. Our Target is intact at 2293 (Resistance 2).
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RUSSELL 2000 preparing for a long-term rally.Last time we looked at Russell 2000 (RUT) on April 01 (see chart below), we called for a pull-back towards the Symmetrical Suport Zone, which as you see took place and the price immediately rebounded:
We are now at the top of the Channel Down, which so far is a mirror of the January - March 2022 Channel Up and technically is the Handle of the long-term Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern and a Bull Flag. As long as the index remains within the Flag, one last test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is possible but our long-term Target of 2293.0 (Resistance 2) remains intact.
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RUSSELL 2000 Bottom of Channel Up. Buy signal.Russell 2000 reached the bottom of the (1d) Channel Up on a symmetric -9.20% bearish leg, like the one before.
It is holding above the MA100 (1d), same with August 25th 2023, which was also a -9.15% decline but the rebound failed to close over the MA50 (1d) and resumed the downtrend.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price and as long as daily candles are closed over the MA100 (1d).
2. Sell if a daily candle gets closed under the MA100 (1d).
Targets:
1. 2230 (+13.61% rise like the bullish leg before).
2. 1830 (-15.63% decline from the top, like the March 24th 2023 low).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on a pattern consistent with -9.20% declines. It is approaching the 30.00 oversold limit.
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RUSSELL 2000 Testing key 2022 Resistance. Rejection or breakout?Russell 2000 (RUT) finally hit our 2140 Target, which we called for on our last pull-back and buy signal (December 28 2023, see chart below):
Even before that signal, we caught the ideal bottom buy for a full bullish swing:
At the moment the situation is different as the index is on full bullish technicals, having hit the 2140 Resistance which was formed by the March 28 2022 High. Needless to say, breaking above this 2-year Resistance opens the way for a Resistance 2 (2293) test.
We believe the key here lies on the 1W (weekly) closing. As long as Russell fails to close a 1W candle above Resistance 1, we will wait for a buy on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). If it falls and closes even below the 1D MA50, we will add a last buy on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the top of the Symmetrical Support Zone, where all candles of the Jan - March 2022 Bear Flag closed.
Our expectation is that this uptrend will form a Bull Flag, in similar fashion as the 2021/22 downtrend formed a Bear Flag. If on the other hand the index does close a 1W candle above Resistance 1, we will have a technical bullish break-out and on that occasion, we will buy on the spot. In all cases our medium-term Target will be 2293 (Resistance 2).
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RUSSELL 2000 on a 20 month High! Is it sustainable?Russell 2000 (RUT) gave us an excellent buy entry on our last call (see chart below), as we achieved the most optimal buy near Support 2 and rallied all the way to our 2000 Target:
The Resistance Zone broke and this delivered a new 20-month High on the index, the effect of which is more accurately seen on the 1W time-frame. The question is, how sustainable can this rally be?
Well as the 1W RSI is only 3 points away from getting overbought (70.00) for the first time since March 2021, having also entered the 2 year Higher Highs Zone, it becomes less and less sustainable. In fact a less risky medium-term strategy would be to start selling and target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That is where we will reverse to a buy and target Resistance 1 at 2140.
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Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:IWM chart analysis/mapping.
IWM ETF rally off late October lows on market expectations of the end to Fed rate hikes.
Trading scenarios:
Continuation rally #1 = multiple gap fill / 38.2% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = 23.6% Fib / horizontal line (light blue dashed) confluence zone.
Deeper pullback #1 = lower range of parallel channel (green) / 200MA confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = re-test ~163 bottom.
RUSSELL 2000: Short term pullback possible but buy for 1910.Russell 2000 crossed again today overo the 1D MA200 and it remains to be seen if it succeeds at closing above it. After the November 15th crossing but failure to close over it, a repeat may materialize a pullback of at least -4.50%, in similar fashion as the 1D MA200 rejections of May 23rd 2023 and November 1st 2022.
Technically that's possible as on the greater picture, the index is still neutral on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 50.610, MACD = -19.910, ADX = 34.284) sitting almost halfway of the giant consolidation/ Rectangle pattern of the past year and a half.
Consequently, we will welcome any pullback as a buy opportunity, but we are already bullish, aiming at the R1 level (TP = 1,910).
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Russell 2000 (RTY, M2K) Low-Timeframe ShortQuick idea here as we look to get back in a groove with analysis/posts after a very light October. Not going to include a lot of elaboration, but we're looking to take advantage of a swing short (price depending) via a low timeframe (5-minute) RTY supply zone (defining candles not pictured here since sub-15-minute charts cannot be posted). If price approaches the zone hot (expanded range candle vs. grinding action), look to take the trade outright upon penetration of the lower bound (1795.4). If RTY stair-steps higher, forming new pockets of demand between current price and supply, consider taking a confirmation entry (price exit from zone). Stop should be placed a bit above the zone's upper bound. Keep in mind round # psych @ 1800. Targets are 2:1 and 5:1 (look for a fall back to origin of CPI breakout). Finally, US stocks have been very bullish as of late, so shorts fly in the face of current momentum. That said, RTY has consistently been the weakest of the 4 US equity indexes, so if you're going to short one, it's probably your best bet. Have to run, but good luck!
Stay tuned b/c a LOT more ideas are coming soon!
Jon @ LionHart Trading
US Russell 2000 RTY ~ Ping Pong Perpetuity (Daily Chart)CAPITALCOM:RTY chart mapping/analysis.
Russell 2000 still stuck within trading range despite recent rallies across major US indices.
What's on the chart:
Ascending parallel channel (light blue) captures upward trend over multi-decade timeframe
Descending parallel channel (white) frames downward trend from upper to lower range (multi-decade) parallel channel
Horizontal lines (yellow dashed) locks in trading range (June 2022 to present)
Descending trend-line (light blue dotted) highlights pivot support points
Fibonnaci levels establishes key supply/demand zones
Short-medium term outlook:
Neutral-bearish
RTY remains in " Ping Pong Perpetuity " until breakout on either side of trading range
200DMA acting as dynamic resistance, exerting downward pressure
Bullish reversal = rally above 200DMA to switch trend & test upper trading range