This RUT/NDX ratio may convince you to buy NASDAQ aggressively.Nasdaq (NDX) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 30 days. This short-term pull-back however is nothing but a buy opportunity on the long-term, and this study shows you why.
The answer lies on the RUT/NDX ratio which shows that this may be the time to get heavier on tech. The use of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) is due to the fact it represents a wider array of companies. Naturally over the years (this 1M chart shows data since 2006), the ratio declines within a Channel Down as historically the riskier tech sector attracts more capital and grows more.
However there are instances where Russell gains more against Nasdaq. We are currently though at a time where this isn't the case as the ratio seems to be ready for decline following the completion of a consolidation that on previous fractals (March 2015, September 2008) was bearish, thus positive for Nasdaq.
As you can see, this movements can be grasped by the Sine Waves, though not perfectly, but still good enough to understand the cyclical pattern we're in, also with the help of the 1M RSI Triangles.
Nasdaq (which is represented by the blue trend-line) has started massive expansion Channel Up patterns following this unique signal given by the RUT/NDX ratio. The first was right after the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom and the second during the 2015/ 2016 E.U., VW and Oil crisis.
The key here is on the 1M RSI. The Triangle is about to beak to the upside and every time this happened in the last 20 years, it coincided with a pull-back on Nasdaq (blue circle) similar to the current one. What followed was massive rallies each time.
As a result, this could be an indication that even though the tariffs have rattles investor confidence lately, this is an opportunity for a strong buy position for at least the rest of the year.
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RTY1!
QUICK LOOK AT A FEW INDICATORS AND INTEREST IN A SERIES?Quick overview testing out the upload from a browser on a ethernet connection computer vs wifi with the desktop downloaded app. Do you find value in this and want to make a regular series? Contact me if so and follow. Esp if your a developer and want to add some videos to your products, free, locked or paid. Im game. Platforms, customization and breaking down analytics is the life. Its what i enjoy and maybe you will too!
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DrawDownKing CME_MINI:ES1!
RUSSELL 15-year Cycles holding perfectlyIt has been 6 months ago (August 15, see chart below) when we updated our long-term call on Russell 2000 (RUT) based on a 15-year Cyclical pattern:
As you can see, since we introduced this long-term commitment on Russell back on October 07 2023, the index made a remarkable recovery and now the final step is to break above the previous All Time High (ATH) and turn it into the long-term Support.
That is what happened on all 3 of its previous Cycles (only broken temporarily during the COVID flash crash). As long as the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, we expect the pattern to hold once more and fulfil the 2.0 Fibonacci extension condition as the near Cycle Top. Our long-term Target remains 3500.
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RUSSELL 2000 One last Resistance remains before mega rally.Russell 2000 (RUT) gave us an excellent buy signal on our last analysis (October 22 2024, see chart below) exactly on the 1D MA50 and within 5 weeks it hit our 2465 Target:
The price almost immediately pulled back, showing the efficiency of our Target placement and the pattern that has now prevailed is the Channel Up that started more than a year ago (October 27 2023).
The recent Higher Low of this pattern was exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the pattern's bottom. The 1D RSI showcased a Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows) against the price's Lower Lows as an early buy signal, which was confirmed on the January 14 2024 1D MACD Bullish Cross. As you can see, all Bullish Crosses below a 0.0 MACD, have been technical buy signals.
What remains is for the price to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the level that is causing a rejection today. Once recovered, we expect the index to complete at least a +21% rally from the recent bottom, the minimum of the previous 3 rallies, and target 2600.
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IWM | Bullish AMEX:IWM
Resistance Levels:
There is a significant resistance level at around 224.02. The price needs to close above this level to confirm a breakout.
Another resistance level is at approximately 233.64.
Support Levels:
The immediate support level is the trendline, which has been acting as a resistance until now. This trendline is likely to act as a support if the breakout is confirmed.
A secondary support level can be seen at around 227.13.
Potential Targets:
If the price closes above 224.02, it signifies a breakout from the current price channel.
The first target after the breakout would be around 233.64.
The second target, based on the price projection, would be approximately 244.46.
Indicators:
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 63.34, which is above the neutral 50 level but not yet in the overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for upward movement.
The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend.
Volume: The volume seems consistent, supporting the upward price movement. Higher volume on a breakout above 224.02 would confirm the bullish sentiment.
Conclusion:
If IWM closes green today above 224.02, it indicates a breakout from the current price channel, suggesting a potential further upside. The first target would be around 233.64, followed by 244.46. This position could be highly profitable for call options and futures contracts if the breakout is confirmed and sustained.
RUSSELL Rally doesn't seem to seek correction any time soon.Russell 2000 is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.532, MACD = 34.900, ADX = 27.532) as the monthly candle is already as high as any in the last 12 months, despite being only on the 1st week. This bullish trend can keep going as this is the bullish wave of the long term Channel Up that started in March 2009 (housing bubble). We are already past a 1M MACD Bullish Cross and all 4 major bullish waves before had such a Cross to show. The minimum rise they gave was +81.48% and this is our target (TP = 3,000) until the end of 2025.
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Russell 2000 Rejects Demand Zone: Is It Time for Bullish Season?The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after testing a previous demand area. While many retail traders are still positioned for further downside, current market conditions suggest a possible contrarian opportunity for a long position.
Demand Area Rejection and Retail Sentiment
The Russell 2000 has recently encountered a strong demand zone that has historically acted as a reliable support area. The index's initial rejection from this level indicates potential buying interest, which could pave the way for an upward move. However, retail traders remain predominantly bearish, anticipating a continuation of the downtrend. This positioning often suggests that the majority expects more selling pressure, which could lead to a squeeze in the event of a reversal.
Why the Long Setup?
Contrarian Approach: When the majority of retail traders lean toward one side of the market, it often creates an opportunity to take a contrarian stance. With retail sentiment heavily skewed towards further downside, a long setup becomes increasingly appealing.
Historical Seasonality: Historical data over the past decade suggests a pattern of upward price movement for the Russell 2000 during this time of the year. The index has experienced notable gains in the fourth quarter in nine of the last ten years. This seasonal trend aligns well with the current technical setup, providing further confidence in a potential bullish move.
The Technical Picture
From a technical perspective, the Russell 2000 has shown resilience at the current demand zone, suggesting that buyers are stepping in. For a confirmed long setup, traders should watch for bullish candlestick patterns, such as an engulfing or hammer formation, on the lower timeframes or even the daily chart. This would provide confirmation that the reversal is underway.
Let’s see how the index performs over the next few sessions. Keep an eye on key levels, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Russel 2000. Rejection at the top, correction on the way?Probable correction on the RTY Russel 2000 index. Rising wedge and failing to break the prior top.
Support on every fibo level to the downside, with an ultimate floor on the monthly lower Mogalef bands the long term sideways channel, and the very long term trend line, all around the 1,600 area
RUSSELL 2000 will finish the year in style on the All Time High.Russell 2000 (RUT) has been giving us a lot of solid signals all year as it is following a highly symmetrical Cup pattern, which delivered last time (May 09, see chart below) an excellent bottom buy trade that effectively hit our 2293 Target:
As the 1M RSI has succeeded at maintaining a sustainable trend above its MA for almost 1 year (which is highly bullish), we make the Cup pattern wider to fit the whole sequence even the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle.
The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) continues to be the main Support, with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) the short-term one. We expect a quick test and then rebound towards the end of the year to 2465 (Resistance 2), which is effectively the market's All Time High.
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RUSSELL 2000 Strong buy on the 1st 1W Golden Cross in 3.5 years!The Russell 2000 (RUT) index gave us an excellent buy signal on June 19 (see chart below), hit our 2293 Target and immediately pulled-back to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line):
The established pattern on the long-term is a Channel Up that first drove the price to Resistance 1 (and our Target) and now guiding it to Resistance 2. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is providing the Higher Low support needed to sustain the Channel Up trend.
The key development this week is the formation of the first 1W Golden Cross since January 2021. We expect that to be enough to resume the Bullish Leg and post at least another +27% rise (as in October - December 2023). As a result our Target is 2400.
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