Small Cap PumptardednessSmall caps bouncing from an oversold condition, indicators are nuetral, but based on pattern, one would have to assume more pumptardedness next week.
One thing though the last few times it;s been at this price level, it just whipsawed sideways for a while, that can happen here too if it falls out of the channel.
RTY1!
TRADE IDEA: RTY DEC 20TH 1610/1620 LONG PUT VERTICALWith the small caps at long-term range highs and implied volatility at the low end of its 52-week range (rank/implied 10/15.8), it's potentially debit spread time.
Pictured here is an /RTY 1610/1620 long put vertical with risk one to make one metrics ($250 max profit/$250 max loss) with a 1615 break even. Unfortunately, markets are wide in RTY, so some price discovery may be required if you're going to go that route. Alternatively, look to put on a similar play in RUT at NY open ... .
Chart of the day: Russell 2k leading indicatorWith the $ES and $NQ rebounding off the 200-dma and at the 61.8% retracement level, the big question is this another BTFD moment or part of a bigger move down?
The $RTY might provide a clue here with a breakdown from a wedge and a retest of the wedge lower boundary which is also marked by a SSR resistance. Odds are for a CD leg down for the Russell 2K and correspondingly the big boys and tech.
Russell 2000: Buy opportunity on 1D.The index has bounced this week off the 1,458.00 Support which was the contact point on October - November 2018. This is a cyclical buy opportunity on 1D and an early long signal as 1D is still neutral (RSI = 44.642, ADX = 33.294, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). We are long on RTY targeting 1,590 (Resistance). If this bullish sequence later holds the 1,498.80 - 1,514.20 zone as a Support, we may be looking at the start of a strong bull run to the ATH and beyond.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
RTY1!, Small Caps in the Breakout ModeA strong bullish daily candle confirms the breakout of the significant resistance level. The small caps entered a balance breakout mode. Usually, that would lead to continuation pattern until the projected area top is not reached. The bullish pattern would help the S&P to move higher or at least to remain at the current prices. The small caps offer better upside reward. If you don’t trade futures you can trade IWM ETF instead.
05/03/2019
RTY1!, Small Caps Broke the BalanceIt seems the upside idea started to unfold. With a low volume there is no strong upside move, nevertheless , a breakout remains intact so far. The market can grind up being in the breakout mode for awhile. Traders are advised to buy pullbacks until the breakout is intact.
The strength in the Russell helped the S&P, which was expected and outlined in the previous post.
04/30/2019
RTY1!, Keep Knocking its Major ResistanceThe Russell 2000, a true indicator of the broader market strength, is keep testing its major resistance. The original idea that it could offer a better upside reward is still intact. Usually, a support or resistance eventually gives up after multiple testes.
In case of the successful breakout the released energy would propel the market - there will be a lot of chasers who is watching it and wait for confirmation. It would also help the S&P 500 to move higher or at least to remain at the higher prices.
In case of a false breakout, things could turn ugly for the buyers.
Watch the index for a great opportunity unfold. If you don't trade futures look at the IWM ETF.
04/28/2019
RTY1!, All Eyes on Small CapsHere is a dissected daily chart of Russell 2000 futures with important levels to watch. As of today, the index remains the weakest among the others. Last week it tested an important trend line but managed to close above it. The index has an interesting behavior that could be used to trader's advantage. For example, it may be in a catch up mode and trend well while the rest of the indices are aimlessly chopping or it may show a hint where the rest of the indices will be heading.
Say, as an investor where do I put my money to work if I can see the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are at all time highs? The Russell is far from the all time highs and has plenty of upside potential.
I drew a few projected areas above and beyond the current action. In case the prices break above that would be a nice upside trend to fill the projected area. In case of a breakdown of the trend line the price can fill the existing area and still find enough buyers to remain inside.
Let's watch the price development next week. Being close to the upper edge of the existing balance the upside potential is there. The only warning sign is a notable negative divergence.
04/21/2019
Tracking 1480-1475 in Russell..From the previous idea (see attached: "Russel leading the consolidation pack") you will know that Russell in many ways has been acting as a leading indicator for US Equities.
This is interesting timingwise, especially when the break to new highs in S&P and NQ occurred was not comparable in Russell. So here we are now only needing to track the 1480-1475 region. This is the 38.2% retrace and we 'know' in advance is the level bulls would want to turn for continuation.
Should we break lower then it will really knock confidence and imply we are starting to show early signs of an impulsive selloff. This will also bring into question the more meaningful top.
Tracking it very closely with Mueller cleared...Best of luck all and thanks for the support!
Russell leading the consolidation pack?A quick update on the count for those following the index.
Nasdaq, S&P and Dow all starting to see some decent profit taking as we enter into resistance again. Here watching the Russell as there's a good chance the market has completed a 5 wave impulse move from the 16 lows.
The correction if the above assumption is right, means that this ABC retracement may have completed after we touched 1300 and we are now entering into a multi-month consolidation period. This will be a wide range, however, with plenty of opportunities on both sides of the pig.
Thanks all
My forecast for RTY this weekTrend is up still until we lost that lower trend line. We are more than 50% back from the ATH and the sell off reversal area. Love that little doji that formed on Friday. We most likely break in the direction of the high or low with strength. My upper target on RTY is 1530.7 then 1560 area.
Lower areas of support 1498-1500, lower 1478-80, and 1465 (and 18 day sma).
I am expecting a more significant pull back in the next few weeks. However always let price discovery be your guide. Trade the trend until it fails.
Cheers! :-)
RTY1, is primed for a directional move.The Russell 2000 futures, that represent small caps and broader market strength, is primed for a directional move. A mature multi day balance has a potential for a breakout to upside. The upside target levels are marked. The related indices just broke to upside today. The Russell has a potential to catch-up.