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Rty1

RTY1!8.14.22 Yesterday I gave you my overview of the Russell and the es mini from a longer timeframe perspective. I went back and took a shorter timeframe perspective on the Russell, and compare it to the longer time frame thinking. I tried to discuss the advantages and disadvantages. I tried to describe a psychological aspect from my point of view, and I'm very much aware in my own trade decisions what the triggers are for my stress. Most of the time I would say that you should look at the Behavior of the market in an "objective "way...based on your observations of market behavior...which can definitely be done, but not all the time. The example I pointed to in this video found the reversal point, but the market came back close to it without making a new low 4 weeks, and from my point of view that's going to be a tough trade for me... and explain why. It doesn't matter if the market never goes below my entry, It doesn't really appeal to me to stay long in a market that doesn't move any significant range off the bottom and for three or four weeks it keeps on coming down to my entry. That is not my concept of Joyful Trading index futures. That's a function of me, not the market. Take a look at it and see what you think as it pertains to you.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by ScottBogatin
RTY is overextending on the upside and downsideI haven't look at RTY for a while now, till the Fri close where I shorted it at 2015.50, willing to add if we stretch into the maj resistance zone right where the upper Bollinger is, that is also a 2.618 extension off the lows RTY is overextending on the upside and downside compare to SPX . We hit 50% retracement off 2020 lows in June and I see the whole way as 5 down and 3 up here. We hit 110MA on Weekly as well as 200MA on Daily. If it's acting as it was on the way lower, SPX might not even reach 200MA in this case. We are at the very top for this bear market rally, it can still extend up to 2084-2108 We are also at/near 61.8 off Mar high and Jun low as well as near 50% off the ATH and Jun low retraement I will update the target for the Oct low after I see confirmations of the top.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by RealTima
6
Will RTY Daily Resistance Hold?The RTY daily time frame is in a down trend. The market is hitting the down trend line. At the same time the market is hitting an up Fibonacci extension price point 1890.50. Usually when this happens. The market has a bearish reaction. If the market continues to push bullish and breaks the down trend line. It will be a strong sign the buyers are taking control. If the market cannot break and close above the down trend line. It is expected the sellers are taking control and will push the market back down. As long as the market stays below the daily down trend line. It will be a good idea to turn to the one hour time frame and to look for high prices in the sell zone.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by JoshuaMartinez
3
RTY UpdateRTY hit my first target, overbought on RSI and MFI along with NQ and ES Funny thing is, I totally called market direction wrong on open, but made money by picking the right stock. That's the opposite of what usually happens to me when I call the market direction right but pick the wrong stock, lol. PDD is still red and looks like crap. Not expecting a tank but I do expect at least a dip tomorrow because everything is overbought, TSLA earnings tonight, ECB tomorrow morning, and Thu is usually the weakest day during a bull run. Chinese ADRs look pretty weak, will go down further with the market if it reverses here. And oh, BTW, the gap filled as promised, lol. Keep an eye on futures gaps. Only works for US indices though.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
2
SPY and ESIndexes are still sideways on weekly timeframe between 3640 - 3950. Its been 5 weeks for now and i think we may have another week of this chop. Market will mostly break this range after the fed meeting on JUL 27th. If we look at candle stick chart on weekly time frame, we can see that we had alternate red and green weeks and mostly closed below the 50% of the range for the week if its a red week and above 50% of range if its a green week. This week broke that pattern, we had a red week but closed almost at the highs of the range. POC and also is at the highs of the week which is good. Coming to the Daily profile, Friday's profile is pretty peculiar with single prints above and below the close price. You can see that we have single prints from 3884 - 3900 on the upside and 3820 - 3811 on the downside which were created Friday on the back of strong retail report. Pretty rare that we see single prints both above and below so close to the closing price of the week. Coming to Friday’s profile, its a “P” shaped profile which generally indicates emotional short term trading especially when it occurs in a choppy range based market. UUP weekly candle looks like a topping candle but i would have been more confident if we got it on DXY too. DXY weekly has back to back top wicks after an extended rally. So, there could definitely be merit for UUP topping candle. As i have been saying for several weeks now, this USD strength is not good for global economies. Leave Asia or Africa, take Europe as an example, EU is a net importer of primary goods. They import most of food, beverages and oil whose prices have been soaring and due to USD strength, their Euro is down in the gutter already. USD/EUR is at parity last week. If this dollar strength persists, EU will have a lot of pressure on its forex reserves and combined with their central bank lagging miles behind the curve on inflation and rate hikes, its a recipe for disaster. US equities cannot stage a consistent rally unless USD comes under control imo. OIL is another market which needs to hold around this 90-100 range imo. Apart from severe demand destruction, i don't see any other reason why oil should come down drastically especially with Biden’s Saudi trip not yielding much results. If demand destruction occurs, it should only come with recession whether mild recession or strong recession is another debate altogether but we should have something which is again not good for markets. CPI came in pretty hot last week and everyone was calling for a crash on markets with some people calling 3400, 3500 on ES but i had a different view. I said it will be really difficult for markets to break 3700 and ES held that level like a champ and rallied almost 150points. The main reason for this is oil prices being down a lot from last month and that should help reduce next months CPI reading. Although oil prices are just down to may levels where we had high CPI number too, it is only one piece of the puzzle. Take a look at commodity prices, they are off 21% from highs and still down 10% from may readings too. Shipping prices well off their highs too and these two things combined with oil prices should give us a lower CPI reading imo. Market is always forward looking and i thought if CPI reading was going to come in lower for JUL month, there is no need for markets to panic on last reading. Thats why i was inclined towards that down move being a trap for bears. Being said that about CPI, now FED needs to calm down and not do 100bps hike on JUL 27th meeting. If indeed CPI is going to come down next month, there is no need for them to be too aggressive with 100bps hike and choke off money supply to the markets. I personally would like 50bps hike in JUL, AUG and SEP rather than than do 75bps now and 25bps in SEP just to give economy a little breathing room to regain its growth but more than likely they might go 75bps in JUL. In any way market is already anticipating 75bps and should be ok with it as long as Powell’s language doesn’t seem too hawkish. Levels for week: Bull Bear line - 3870 Below 3870, We can see 3826, 3812, 3776, 3756 Above 3870, we can see 3886, 3900, 3912, 3950.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by savage_Trader
RTY UpdateMFI went oversold this morning, and you can see RTY is coiling. CPI release tomorrow morning before market open, the market tanked before the last release, so if it doesn't tank before EOD it's a bullish sign. Normally I would say this is a continuation pattern, but the algos need to fill he open gap. If it breaks upwards then the target is the resistance zone, upper orange line. Plan accordingly. If you're short, you'll want to bail tomorrow if the market goes green at all. I'm all cash, even garbage will float on a rising tide. Wouldn;t surprise me at all if they pump even shitcoin.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
3
RTY UpdateThis morning's selloff sent all indicators to neutral. Everything was overbought last week in a weird melt up. ES, NQ, RTY all have similar indicator patterns. I'm hoping the indicators start cycling from overbought to oversold again, because that's the easiest time to make money. I get the weird feeling we see a bounce tomorrow then only a mild drop Wed, but who knows. Market could completely tank again, lol, but at this point I think 75 is priced in for the next Fed meeting. This week is all about the CPI and market reaction to it. I don't think indicators will matter much. Really don't feel like trading this week. I shifted my BITO (shitcoin) puts to a lower strike and next week's expiration since BTC tends to tank on weekends and CPI numbers coming out Wed. Just a small play, a couple grand including today's profits.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
RTY UpdateLOL, i slept in and missed the morning pump. I was all cash. I think the overlay is a bit too bullish, but I also think the RTY gets a gap fill tomorrow. We could see a possible sector rotation instead of an all out rally. My play is to short EOD tomorrow, not chasing the pump. Earnings season coming up end of month (EOM), and Fed minutes had nothing positive in it. Remember the last time the market pumped Fed meeting minutes it was a Thu/Fri pump. I guess the same here.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
1
RUSSELL 2000 respecting FIB levels; ABC may reach 1500 vol zone.The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave. As you can see in this weekly chart, Russell 2000 respects impt FIB levels. 2100 zone is Fib 0.236, 1900 is Fib 0.383, the current 1700 zone is Fib 0.50 & the projected 1500 bottom zone will be Fib 0.618, the most likely zone for a reversal. THE BULLISH CASE: if Russell 2000 holds the 1700 zone, the bounce will be very quick due to the 2 LOW VOLUME zones. The target will be 2100 with some consolidation near the 1900 zone. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by xtremerider8