Stocks Surge Ahead of NFPGreat groundwork in stock indices all week, terrific technical patterns developed to usher strength, and leadership from Tech. Let's take a look at the landscape ahead of Nonfarm Payroll.
Rty1
Russell Targeting A Trendline TestIn this update we review the recent price action in the Russell futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objective to target
RTY Update (MFI very oversold)Small caps got rejected by resistance (the old support), I think it drifts sideways and then eventually collapses again.
After I saw this plot I flipped all my puts, will re-enter when RTY challenges the resistance again.
RTY Daily Support Shows it is holdingThe RTY Daily time frame is in a down channel. The
market hit the bottom of the channel and found
support. The market is now pushing bullish towards
the top of the channel price point 1936.2 about
+803 ticks above the market. It will be a good
idea to turn to the one hour time frame and to
look for long ideas in the buy zone.
Is Momentum Shifting in Stocks Hands?A strong day for indices, ES, NQ, YM, RTY, what do we need to tell us momentum is shifting hands? I also cover the individual stocks I am watching most closely heading into the final trading day of the week.
Recession? Then Why is the RTY Outperforming?Usually a slowing in the economy hurts the growth oriented RTY the most. Instead, it is outperforming.
Russell Testing Pivotal ResistanceIn this update we review the recent price action in the Russell2000 futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target
RTY DailyOversold on RSI and MFI, and it hit my target line which is the price level pre-COVID
Old resistance is new support so I expect a bounce around here, some garbage stocks are green already today
Russell2000 Trading The Wedge PatternIn this update we review the recent price action in the Russell2000 futures contract and identify the next high probability trading pattern. and price objectives to target
ES UpdateES and RTY MFI hit overbought premarket
SHorting garbage yesterday morning was the right call, flipped my RIVN puts for a decent profit. Gonna stay cash until the Fed meeting, garbage stocks are already down 3 - 5%, not worth chasing it right now.
Should've shorted PTON again, lol. What a PoS, SFIXing it's way to single digits. Didn;t think it'd move that much this week.
RTY +1,400 Ticks long ideaThe RTY one hour time frame is in a large side
ways range. The market is at the bottom of the
range. The market is below the short term down
trend line. It will be a good idea to wait for the
market to break and close above the short term
down trend line before looking for long ideas.
Entry: Counter trend line break bullish above
the bottom of the sideways range.
STOP: In the sell zone, below the low that
formed at the bottom of the range.
LIMIT: 2055.7
Once or if the market closes above the short
term down trend line. As long as the market
stays above the bottom of the range. It will
be a good idea to turn to the five minute time
frame and look for tunnel trader long /
destination trader long ideas towards 2055.7
+1,300 Bullish move on RTY DailyThe RTY daily time frame is in an up channel. The
market hit the bottom of the channel and is
showing signs of pushing bullish towards the top
of the channel price point 2127.8 about +1,311
ticks above the market. It will be a good idea to
turn to the one hour time frame and to look for
low prices in the buy zone.
RTY UpdateRSI overbought with MFI divergence, yields and oil rising. I don;t think this is sustainable.
Took a small short position, but I think the reversal is tomorrow.
Russell Monthly Range Resistance FadeInt his update we review the recent price action in the Russell 2000 (futures contract) and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target.
Small Caps look Very BullishThe SPY and QQQ look like they need a rest. However, the RTY looks ready for bullish continuation.
RTY MFI oversoldJust noticed this, probably means garbage stocks get a pump tomorrow.
ES MFI almost went oversold as well, I think I was too focused on NQ premarket. All indications are a pump tomorrow for Ponzi Friday
Russell 2000 Futures -20% More$RTY1! lost 50 EMA support and racing to 100 EMA quickly on weekly, looks even uglier on daily as the pullback looks to be gaining momentum.
Next level of interest would be another -20% decline.
Last time this severe of a retreat was realized was March to May of 2020. The recovery was rapid given unprecedented amount of federal stimulus to prop the economy up.
Stimulus is not an option in the face of sharply rising prices with persistent inflation starting to rip across all sectors.
Markets shrugged off initial Fed communications and FOMC 25 bps rate hike, clearly reflecting lack of belief in Central Banks' conviction.
More volatility ahead as recession lurks in the wings and stagflation appears likely without regime change.
RTY UpdateLooks to me like the market just wants to bounce sideways, I hope that's the case because sideways rangebound trading is just about the easiest way to make money.
In any case, if you're still bullish, wait until MFI goes oversold before buying the dip. I woke up late today and missed the morning drop so staying out for now. Garbage stocks are tempting but I'll probably have to wait to see what happens tomorrow.
Might buy a few CHWY puts or something EOD if there's no afternoon rebound.
I told you guys short squeezes always run 3 or 4 days, looks like that's over. Could just go sideways though.
RTY ProjectionI thought this crap looked really familiar, here's the COVID rebound upside down.
COVID stocks now tanking much like the way they rose off the bottom, every earnings just gets worse and worse.
I maintain bearishness but watch out for the Fed next week. Also, just because garbage stocks are tanking doesn't mean they tank every day, you can't expect stocks to drop 10% 2 days in a row, which is why I dumped CHWY puts yesterday.
All foreign markets are already at pre-COVID levels which is why they bounced and pumped US futures. US market isn't there yet. NQ might not reach preCOVID levels because FAANG stocks (minus FB) are doing well, but small caps should all return back to pre COVID levels eventually. Some already have....
I no longer care if the weekly goes oversold, there's no appetite for garbage stocks. The weekly indicators stayed overbought for an extended time during the pump. Now everything is inverted.
Gonna be tough trading because the market will gap up more often than not since Europe already hit bottom.
RTY UpdateRTY MFI overbought again....
It's like they're trying to melt it up for some reason. Really odd considering retail tanked today. Could just be a gap fill attempt.
Whatever, probably best to stay out for a day, most garbage stocks are small cap
RTY UpdateMFI overbought but RSI isn;t.
My short squeeze rule is 3 days but lots of stocks that normally fill gaps are just hovering around wondering which wa to go, lol
RTY UpdateRTY MFI almost overbought
My general rule is 3 days for a short squeeze, but I may be looking at puts if RTY MFI gets overbought tomorrow. Might do next week's puts to be safe, Fed meeting and what not. Not to mention I doubt anyone wants a long position over the weekend.
