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RUA

U.S. Small Cap 3000 makes new ATH but U.S. Small Cap 2000 lagsU.S. Small Cap 3000 - TVC:RUA ✅A new ATH breaking above the Dec 2022 ATH U.S. Small Cap 2000 - TVC:RUT 🚨Continues to demonstrate relative weakness Light Blue by area on the chart 🔵 The U.S. small cap 3000 finally caught up with the other major indices such as the SP:SPX and NASDAQ:NDX as it previously has been demonstrating relative weakness failing to make new highs. That changed with the close of last week. The U.S. Small Caps 3000 index is inclusive of the large cap 1000 Index. The 3000 index also uses market capitalization-weighted methodology. This means the larger 1000 companies have a greater impact on the indexes performance. This may explain why the 3000 index is out performing the 2000 small caps index by a wide margin. The Small caps 2000 is a better representation of the of small-cap stocks/businesses whose market capitalization is about $250 million to $2 billion 🧐 So the 1000 Large-Cap stocks direct the majority of the small cap 3000 index's performance. The heavy spearhead of the index is the 1000 large caps. The S&P 500 Index tracks the largest 500 publicly traded companies, with exposure to 80% of U.S. stocks, compared to the U.S. Small Cap 3000’s 96% in U.S. Stocks 🧐 So the small caps 3000 index is a very concentrated index made up of primarily large U.S. stocks, even more concentrated by the S&P500 Divergence in Progress On this chart you can see that in Dec 2022 the U.S. Small Cap 3000 index made a new high whilst the 2000 index made a lower high. This was a warning signal at the time that prices were about to roll over. This is not a guaranteed signal however it is something to watch out for and it appears to be in progress again at present. We can add it to our armory of risk indicators that can, when used in aggregate, help inform us of probable outcomes (not guaranteed outcomes). One would hope the Small Cap 2000 would base here or make a new high. We can continue to watch these two indexes and see how they move together for an indication of things to come. You can find this chart on TradingView and hit play to see how they are moving in lockstep. PUKA
TVC:RUA
by PukaCharts
U.S Equity Index’s Overview – A Repeating PatternU.S Equity Index’s Overview – A Repeating Pattern The Bull Thesis – Ascending Triangles The 200 day (blue line on each chart) is squeezing price up towards each red resistance line making each chart look like an ascending triangle (evident on every chart). With the 200 day as underside support for price and the 200 day sloping upwards, things remain positive. The Bear Caution – Throw overs, Transportation Lag and the Hidden Wedge We need to be aware and cautious of a throw over top on each chart which is always a possibility. Price on each chart would need to fall back below the red support line (pricing having only been thrown over the red line to come back down again). The DJ:DJT – Transportation (Chart 1) is lagging behind all the other charts and has not taken out its Nov 2021 or Jul 2023 highs. This relative weakness in Transportation is worrying as this index offers an early indication of potentially less manufacturing and goods being transported, with this chart lagging and failing to take out its highs, it could be an early indication of a more pronounced slowdown in the economy. This chart we need to keep a very close eye on. If DJT fails to rise above its red line and loses the 200 Day, this could be a very bad signal. We also need to be aware of how one important chart is showing a rising wedge pattern (Chart 3 – Major Market Index TVC:XMI ). This old school chart is watched by the OG traders and investors as a more general market chart. Lets keep an eye on the upper diagonal on the rising wedge for resistance on this one. A rejection here could be something of an early warning sign and obviously losing the red support line would confirm this. Charts 4 - 6 4. S&P 500 SP:SPX 5. NASDAQ NASDAQ:NDX & 6. US Small Cap 3000 TVC:RUA All these charts appear to be about to break into all time highs, however they are slightly lagging the Dow Jones Industrials TVC:DJI and the Major Market Index TVC:XMI which have broken all time highs. In the Charts 4 - 6 break out above their red lines (above recent all time highs), this could be another confirmation signal of bullish momentum. Obviously a rejection at this level does not bode well. SUMMARY In this hard to navigate market environment we need to pay attention to DJT (Chart 1) and XMI (Chart3) as they provide clear boundaries that we can watch for hidden bear signal warnings. On the contrary, in the even these charts and charts 4 - 6 breach their respective resistance levels mentioned above we can be assured that the wind is at out back in this currently confusingly bullish market. If you like this overview please let me know and I will complete similar overviews for other markets and indices. Thanks for reading PUKA
TVC:XMI
by PukaCharts
GENERAL MARKET INDICES REACT POSITIVLY TO FOMCFOMC DAY All Major Market Indices initially making progress higher and reacting positively to the the FOMC meeting. Whilst these are monthly charts I'm sharing the prices are updated as of moments ago. Main comments from Powell Today: 🔸TODAY AT FED MEETING MANY PEOPLE MENTIONED THEIR RATE FORECASTS 🔸THERE WAS A GENERAL EXPECTATION THAT RATE CUTS WILL BE A TOPIC OF CONVERSATION GOING FORWARD 🔸LITTLE BASIS FOR THINKING ECONOMY IN RECESSION NOW 🔸ALWAYS A PROBABILITY THERE IS A RECESSION IN NEXT YEAR The Charts What originally looked like a series of double tops now appear to be showing significant strength. The top 3 charts have a habit of letting us know where the market is going. At present that appears to be higher albeit the Dow Transportation Index is still lagging a little (Chart 1) and technically one would think this would be leading all others. We should still be on watch for a throw over double top, but for now we have nothing to suggest this is the case. If these markets can make support on the red line this could be good solid confirmation signal of price moving higher for longer 😉 Stay Nimble and congrats if your in the green PUKA PUKA
TVC:RUALong
by PukaCharts
General Major Market Indices - An Overview of the MarketGeneral Major Market Indices These six market indices give a very good snapshot of where we are in this difficult to discern market and why uncertainty still lingers as we continue to climb a wall of worry. The Chart ▫️ Every index 1 - 6 below has been rejected or is struggling to make new highs on the weekly timeframe. ▫️ At the same time each chart appears to be finding support on the 200 day moving average (40 week moving average). You could argue that ascending triangles are forming, in which scenario we would await a confirmation breakout above the upper resistance line. ▫️ Charts 1 – 3 appear to be leading charts 4 – 6 - You can see that the DJ:DJT , TVC:DJI and TVC:XMI charts (Charts 1 – 3) have all attempted to break above the overhead resistance and have been rejected or are struggling to break through. - Conversely the CBOE:SPX , NASDAQ:NDX and TVC:RUA charts (Charts 4 – 6) have made lower highs and have not yet reached up and even tested the overhead resistance... For this reason these charts are showing relative weakness. ▫️ In prior Macro Mondays it was made very clear that Charts 1 – 3 can provide advance warning of recession and or bear market declines ahead of charts such as 4 – 6. Charts 4 - 6 are showing relative weakness and appear to be lagging charts 1 - 3, for this reason revisiting this snapshot would be beneficial to see can we get a lead on the S&P500, Nasdaq and US Small Caps. This in turn could give us a lead on the entire market. ▫️ At present we are above the 200 day moving average on every chart and the 200 day moving average is sloping upwards ✅ - This is positive and would reinforce an ascending triangle thesis however at this stage, looking at all the charts a definitive break above the overhead resistance line would be a preferred entry with stop losses placed under that resistance line thats been broken. - A revisit of the 200 day moving average could also be another entry consideration, simply because again you have stop placed under the 200 moving average, defined entries with defined stops under them. In summary, charts 1 – 3 can act as leading indicators of where price will go next in the general market. Charts 4 – 6 are showing relative weakness, potentially making lower highs however this could change in coming weeks as a strong green candle is challenging the recent highs. Ideally we want to see a definitive break above the overhead resistance levels and we would rather not see further overhead rejections or a breach below the 200 day moving average. The beauty of Trading View is that you can revisit this exact chart on my page, press play and see if we have we broken through the resistance lines or fallen below the 200 day moving average, all at a glance. Be sure to make use of it to save you the time and effort of reviewing every chart. You can get a the jist of these major indices all with a glance. Regardless I will do my best to update you here on X. If you like these broader analysis covering multiple stocks in particular index's or in particular sectors, please let me know. What are the components of each index? - This is for those of you who are unsure what each index is made up of and what they represent. 1. Dow Jones Transportation Index - DJ:DJT - The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States. - The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy 2. Dow Jones Industrial Index – SDJI - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity indexes 3. Arca Major Markets Index - TVC:XMI - The XMI is an overlooked chart often utilized by OG traders has been referenced by Sentiment Trader as a leading market index. XMI is a price weighted index consisting of 20 blue chip U.S Industrial Stocks, 17 of which are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within the index there is surprising blend of stocks that include transport, travel, food, pharma, energy and technology. 4. S&P 500 - CBOE:SPX - The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. 5. NASDAQ 100 - NASDAQ:NDX - The technology index, the Nasdaq-100 is a market index made up of 101 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index and includes the likes of NVIDIA and the MAANG stocks (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) 6. US SMALL CAP 3000 - TVC:RUA - Small-cap stocks are defined as having a market capitalization between $300 million and $2 Billion. Examples would be Upstart and Victoria's Secret. Thanks guys PUKA
SP:SPX
by PukaCharts
2
📉 Stoch Markets: Is the worst really over? 🚀⁉️📝 I will try to analyze the market as a whole, with reference to the Russell 3000 index , which is broader than the S&P 500 . (Russell 3000 is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the 3,000 largest publicly held companies incorporated in America as measured by total market capitalization, and represents approximately 97% of the American public equity market). 📈 On the top chart we have the Russell 3000 . 📉 On the bottom chart, we have the Russell 2000 Growth divided by the Russell 2000 Value . (The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index). The intention here is to see how the companies classified in the 'Growth Investing' category are performing, using the 'Value Investing' companies as a parameter. 🤔 As a rule, it is to be expected that when traders and investors are more prone to risk, they invest more money in 'growth investing' companies than in 'value investing' companies. 1) Analyzing divergences 1.1) 2006-2008 In the period from 2006 to 2008 we had a divergence: the Russell 3000 had lower funds, while the Growth companies had higher funds. The apex was found precisely in the blue diagonal channel, on 12/30/2008. Note that Russell's bottom was only found on 03/10/2009, 3 months later. There is a clear anticipation in the contribution of 'Growth' companies. 1.2) 2014-2016 Russell tests the support of the green line several times, the last one being on 02/11/2016. Meanwhile, Growth companies remain on the rise, however reaching the blue diagonal channel again on 02/02/2017, 1 year later. In this case there was an outflow of 'Growth' companies, at least until reaching the blue diagonal channel. After that the increase continues. 1.3) 2018-2020 In this period we have a classic book divergence. The Russell peaks downwards on 21/12/2018, and later on 23/03/2020, featuring lower bottoms. Meanwhile, 'Growth' companies continue to 'respect' the green close with ever higher funds, reaching a low peak on the same date. 1.4) 2022-? Considering the bad macro-economic scenario, with the high cost of money and inflation, it would be surprising that the 'Growth' companies had a better performance than the 'Value' ones. Despite this pessimistic bias, if this indicator breaks above this green diagonal line and stays there, I will reconsider this opinion. If not, I think it is more likely that it will hit the blue diagonal channel again to form the final divergence. 🟢 For comparison purposes, considering a more global aspect and not just the small companies of the Russell 2000, the same analysis could be done on the ratio between the RAG and RAV indices (Russel 3000 Growth/Russel 3000 Value): 2006-2008 2014-2016 2018-2020 2022-? 🔵 What's important to note is that these key moments happened in December and March.
R
by andre_007
Traditional market analysis 09/06/2021 #2Hello everyone! Quick update on the current situation with several charts below. Currently I am still bullish on Oil and bearish on the USD. The USD hasn't managed to bounce and across many pairs it either keeps breaking down or keeps testing support. For example USDCNH has clearly broken down and GBPUSD looks ready for a breakout. Currently metals don't look all that bullish, however bonds seem to be getting stronger and stronger bouncing off key support. I don't think we'll have a massive inflation spike and that this will be transitory, but transitory might mean higher inflation for a few years as the world is slowly getting back to normal and potentially Central banks cut down a little bit on the printing. Of course there is inflation and there will be more for some years but it won't be like the 1940s or the 1970s. Yes with oil prices going higher and higher there will be an issue and the same goes for several other things like Copper. At some point inflation will hurt stocks, however for now they look pretty strong. To me all US indices are looking very strong despite all the bad numbers, potential tax hikes and so on. Maybe they are focus on the additional spending and stimulus coming than any of the other big problems. For now I see no issues with the current trend and although stocks are 'expensive' and there are many issues with the current valuations, don't forget that in the current environment they benefit through multiple ways. Also don't forget that we haven't seen a blow off top or a proper bubble formation and until we see that things could keep expanding. Yes one or several15-30% drops will come at some point in the next 6-12 months and I have no doubt about that, but until I see key support levels being broken I am more bullish than bearish. If the Russell 3000 closes below 2400 points then we might have a problem. The market seems to have a very clean bullish structure and it could actually accelerate to the upside than going down at the moment. It is up about 15% this year and it could keep going higher as more and more money is printed. s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com
FX:SPX500Long
by BitcoinMacro
1