USDRUB Massive bullish break-out delivering a strong rally.The USDRUB pair has made an aggressive bullish break-out since the week of September 16, as it broke above the 1-year Lower Highs trend-line (since October 09 2023). At the same time it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while sustaining a rebound off the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
As we can see on this chart, when the pair historically breaks above similar Lower Highs trend-lines, it rallies to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see at least 110.000 on the current rally.
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Rub
USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024.
As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones).
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USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat.
The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost.
As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200).
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USDRUB On the key 1W MA50 pivot. Trade accordingly.The USDRUB pair has bee trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 5 months and yet again is testing the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a highly important Support level as it has been tested 4 times in 2024 and held (even closed the 1W candles above it) on all occasions.
Naturally, as long as it holds, we remain bullish targeting 96.8000 (1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is where the February 23 2024 Higher High was priced. If it closes a candle below the 1W MA50, we will take a quick sell and target 89.9400 (Support 1).
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USDRUB Is it time to buy?We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target:
This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of October 30 2023 but on the other hand the price has respected/ held the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support, for 3 straight weeks, closing all 1W candles above it.
At the same time the 1W RSI broke and remains above its MA line, so we are giving the bullish trend a slight edge at the moment. If the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1D MA100, it will be the bullish confirmation signal we need to buy and target 103.500, which will be a +19.50% rise from the recent bottom and will test the 1.0 Fibonacci level.
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Currency scuffleAs you can see we prepared update for the currency agenda, we have added gd, jpy, rub, and inr to the fuse, as you can see fibonacci cycles stayed the same in the anbsence. We think or at least clearly see on a chart that rub was the most profitable currency available. In the later arrivals we will try to discover most profitable assets nominated in rubles and compare them to assets in other curencies. Feel free to read, analyse, comment and enjoy the party.
USDRUB Wonderful Fibonacci Channel trading setup.The USDRUB pair is trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) providing the first level of Support. Coming of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price is on the 3rd mini Channel phase (orange) within the 1.0 and 1.5 Fibonacci levels, same as the previous (green) has been within 0.5 - 1.0 Fib and the one before (blue) within the 0.0 - 0.5 Fib.
We should be half-way through this phase so every 1.5 Fib test is a sell opportunity and every 1.0 is a buy, until the price hits the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and starts the rise to the next Fib range (1.5 - 2.0).
Currently the pair is a sell opportunity, targeting 95.000.
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💾 U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble TOMI know you Forex people are all experts so there is no need for much "talking"/writing.
USDRUB goes above EMA50 weekly.
Bullish wave confirmed.
Potential targets are marked with a black dashed line on the chart.
This rally should last 2-3 months more or less.
Going below EMA50 invalidates most of the bullish momentum.
Namaste.
💾 Euro vs Russian RubleI was looking at this with the RSI open and was getting mixed signals. The daily timeframe (short-term) also, mixed signals but this isn't the case for the long-term.
The blue lines you see here, that's the trend.
Both the long upper wick March 2022 and the crash May-Dec. 2022 are the excess.
This chart is clearly saying that the Euro is set to continue growing against the Russian Ruble, but things can change.
Last month was a decisive session and gives out a strong signal.
We have a "hammer" candlestick; long lower wick coupled with a small real body.
This month we have a full green candle, so far, and this works as confirmation of last's months session. Meaning bullish confirmation.
This is all pointing straight up (green arrow), with the main support being 80 (last months wick low) and 72 (January's low). Moving below these levels would change the chart structure yet the bullish bias would still remain.
Below you can find the USDRUB trade ideas if you want additional information:
💾 U.S. Dollar Bullish Against The Russian Ruble | April 10, 2023
💾 U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble TOM | December 21, 2022
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
💾 U.S. Dollar Bullish Against The Russian RubleWe are looking at a monthly chart, this is an extremely bullish setup.
USDRUB about to go up strong.
What we see here after the May-June 2022 crash is a recovery phase.
This recovery phase is completed December 2022 when USDRUB closes above EMA100, EMA10, EMA50 and EMA21 in the same month.
At this point the bullish bias is confirmed.
January 2023 was a month of consolidation, the session closed above the moving averages.
In February 2023 the bullish trend starts following the recovery.
In March 2023 we get bullish confirmation/continuation and in April the bullish bias intensifies.
After 4 months of slow but steady growth, the accumulation phase is reaching its end and we should see a reverse of the move that happened between May and June 2022.
As it crashed fast and strong, it will rise with force.
This analysis is supported by additional signals.
The MACD has gone bullish as it trades monthly above 0.
A very strong bullish cross took place and the histogram is full green.
It is also trading above Fib. resistance (now support).
Plenty of room available for additional growth.
The RSI can only be consider super strong when trading above 50 monthly, a great reading... Here is the chart:
Invalidation point
For this analysis to become invalid we would need to see a close monthly at least below EMA100 or $63. Technically speaking, the bullish bias still remains valid even with such a drop.
Prices would need to close below HKEX:50 for the current structure to breakdown.
Everything is pointing up.
I am sharing this update because many people showed interest in my previous analysis "USDRUB_TOM" from Dec. 2022, shared in the "Related Ideas".
Thanks a lot for your time and support.
Namaste.
The ruble - cylinder in a cylinder in which a rabbitGood evening ladies and gentlemen
for a long time I could not comprehend the schedule,
pondered for weeks, days and nights
on the full moon closer to Easter Sunday I realized:
USD\RUB is a livermore cylinder
more precisely, I would say a cylinder in a cylinder in which a rabbit
Nabiullina, of course, is still a magician, but the rabbit is real, and tricks are tricks.
I also have one in stock: if the forecast does not come true,
I will say that this dog ran over the keyboard and posted a post
Yes, exactly - not funny at all - but tricks - it's not jokes.
I told you, tricks are tricks.
Okay, the magic starts to end
I’ll go as soon as possible, the ficus is drying up, I need to water it.
Bye
USDRUB Supported and with a STOCH Bullish Cross!The USDRUB has been trading within a 5 month Rectangle pattern ever since the price retraced from the start of the war High. The price made a High on October 11 and has been pulling back since but for the 7th straight session, it remains supported on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which since late July has been trading around the Rectangle's middle (median), thus acting as somewhat a pivot point.
This level of Support along with the fact that the STOCH RSI is making a Bullish Cross, presents a short-term buy opportunity, first towards the top of the High Volatility Zone and then towards the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed).
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Forecast CNYRUB #FOREX #CNYRUB
Good Saturday night to everyone!
What's happening now? The Central Bank of the Russian Federation continues to keep the ruble exchange rate in manual control, which is why we are observing a protracted lateral movement.
But now we will not dive into the fundamental wilds of why, why and who benefits from it, but just see what our trading system says. Especially yesterday we were all very emotionally stressed:)
So there are still two key magnets on the system at the top - on ~ 11.3 and ~ 13.3
Before that, it is likely that there may be a decrease in the green zone by 6.5-7.3, where you can rebalance the foreign exchange portfolio, that is, add more yuan.
At the same time, you need to understand that markets, like a world device, are now staggering and moving extremely high frequency, so any deal now is a risk!
Calculate the risks in advance so that the psyche is intact in cases where everything does not go according to plan.
* This post is not investment advice
💶 EUR; Lowest Rate in 19 Years ( Risk of Energy Crisis )🆖As the risks of an energy crisis increase, the euro is nearing its lowest level in 19 years
Today, the price of natural gas has increased by 9%, and the price of electricity for one year in Germany is 14 times higher than the level of one year ago. The numbers are crippling for heavy industries, with Germany's DAX down 2.3 percent today, the steepest drop in the global index.
The euro has strengthened over the past six weeks as the US dollar weakened against a less accommodative Federal Reserve, but that rally appears to have come to an end. Meanwhile, Europe's economic outlook is rapidly deteriorating. The EUR/USD low was at0.9952 in July and is now about 20 pips away. If this rate breaks, the euro will hit its lowest level since late 2002.What is surprising is that the people of Europe have not yet realized how bad the economic situation will be. There is a lag in energy price increases that has not yet been felt and depends on different countries and contract structures, but there is a lot of difficulty ahead.
✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE!
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👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research.
💚 if you're fan of my analyses please follow me , give a big thumbs 👍 OR drop a comment 🗯
USDRUB 4 years of slow rising before the next stress eventThe USDRUB pair is consolidating in recent weeks since the short-lived rebound on the June 27 (1W candle) low. The inability to break above either the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) or the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) should keep the price action rather neutral for now. As you see the long-term bullish Channel that started after the July 2008 low, is still holding as the June Low was contained just above its Higher Lows trend-line.
After such a Low, the pair tends to start a Channel Up on a slow pace within the respective Fibonacci levels. This is a long-term accumulation phase before a major stress event rapidly sends the RUB depreciating against the USD.
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GOLD the shinny metal sustaining the RUBWith U.S FED re-affirming its intention to fight inflation and Russia having its reserves in gold whereas U.S being reliant on foreign debt and oil for the workings of the U.S dollar. I now expect a deep relentless dive in gold markets. Target 1070$ and possibly lower in the next 12 months. Nevertheless this will not be in one go. There are many levels where price could bounce to further trap Gold bugs.