Rub
USD/RUB 4H Chart: Continued to declined The US Dollar has continued to decline against the Russian ruble, as expected. The currency exchange rate has reached the previously set target of 56.13.
The target was chosen as it represents the low level of August 2017. Moreover, it consists of various other levels of significance. For example, an inverse Fibonacci retracement level of past high and low levels would be located at that level.
Meanwhile, regarding the long term, the movement is likely to continue south until it breached the monthly pivot point's support at 54.88.
USD/RUB 4H Chart: Approaching historical lowAs the US Dollar continued to lose ground against the Russian Ruble a major development occurred. The currency exchange rate passed a very significant support level near the 57.60 level. At that mark a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level met with the support of the most dominant ascending channel pattern. However, that is no longer the situation.
Instead the medium term channel down pattern has set its way to guide the currency exchange rate down to the 56.80 mark. That level is also consisted with a much larger scale Fibonacci retracement level. Moreover, close by a monthly support level is located close by.
EUR/RUB 4H Chart: Stopped reboundThe common European currency recently revealed a large scale ascending channel pattern against the Russian Ruble. The pattern was discovered, as the currency exchange rate did a rebound against the lower trend line of the pattern.
Moreover, the rebound has occurred in a small scale channel up pattern. However, the pattern has already encountered the resistance of a medium term channel down pattern. In general, the situation is quite complicated.
In regards to the short and medium term, one should look at the region near the 69.50 mark. If a rebound occurs, a new medium scale pattern will develop. On the other hand the pair might decline down to a massive scale support, which on Tuesday was located at the 69.00 mark.
USD/RUB meets long term supportAt first glance the situation on the USD/RUB charts looks chaotic. However, if one delves deeper into understanding the currency exchange rate, it is clear what is occurring.
First of all the pair has made a rebound against the most dominant ascending channel patterns lower trend line, which is combined with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at the 56.95 mark.
As a result of the rebound the previously active medium term pattern was broken. Moreover, two new patterns have been mapped. The short term, already obsolete channel up pattern has already been broken. Meanwhile, the new medium term channel up is only speculated.
USD/RUB not likely to go much higherDuring the recent trading sessions the US Dollar has made a rebound against the Russian Ruble. Due to that reason a surge is to be expected. However, various details reveal that the bulls might still pass this rate.
First of all the pair is still located in the borders of the junior pattern channel down pattern .That means that it’s upper trend line will continue to provide resistance. Meanwhile, the pair is also located in a dominant channel down.
In addition the pair is set to face the resistance of the various simple moving averages of the hourly chart. These factors combined reveal that there might be no short term recovery at all.
EUR/RUB 1D Chart: Rising WedgeEUR/RUB 1D Chart: Rising Wedge
The common European currency is appreciating against the Russian Ruble in a four month long ascending channel that has recently began to transform into a rising wedge.
Formation of the wedge began, when the currency exchange rate tried to slide to the bottom trend-line of the channel for the second time.
During the yesterday’s trading session the currency rate broke though the monthly and weekly R1 amid the news from the OPEC meeting in St. Petersburg.
This advance suggests that the rate might reach the monthly R2 at 71.3648 already by end of the month.
A combination of this pivot point with the pattern’s resistance line should give an impulse strong enough to push it out of the formation.
Nevertheless, the above scenario might be hampered in case the US will impose new sanctions against Russia, which will lead to a spike of the Ruble at least in the short run.
USD/RUB prepares for a surgeThe US Dollar has been depreciating against the Russian Ruble during the last month. However, recently the currency exchange rate has reached the support line of a dominant descending channel pattern.
The dominant pattern has a very small angle of decline, which means that most likely we will soon see the formation of a new ascending junior pattern. However, the rate is most likely going to trade flat for some time, as it is set to face the resistance of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly S1 near the 58.75 mark.
Moreover, the 55-period simple moving average is approaching from the upside to strengthen the resistance cluster.
USDRUBIs this analisis right or wrong?
The answer will be given in the middle of 2018.
For now, we are looking close to 0.5 Fibo level, as the price 54.50 is shown.
There might be a good long term buy (long positions) opportunities.
The "carry trade" is more preferable, it means
we will open short positions as USDRUB price goes to 86-88 for long term investment.
USDRUB (MOEX). New count. Back to September idea. Target 44. Quite often the first idea in your mind is correct, call it divine providence but it works.
So the more I am analyzing corrective structures the better should be labelling ))).
So this detailed count of what was seen last September - into related ideas below.
The target is conservative at 44 RUB where Y=W.
TRYRUB @ daily @ last 10 weeks down (friday by friday)This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
4XSetUps for next wee - friday close(1482 Cross-Rates)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
USDRUB Update. Possible wave count. MOEX edition.This is the chart based on official exchange data though it's quite clean without choppy tales.
It is an update.
I added alternative count in yellow, which implies longer wave 5.
The white trendlines isolate the current move successfully so watch their integrity closely.
Happy New Year!