MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: BREAKOUT FROM THE RANGEAfter the WTI Oil has confirmed its breakdown from its relevant range, USDRUB reacted accordingly - by breaking out from its range it has been in since September.
Price is now above both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above upper 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more upside probability.
Rub
Is the Rubble going to rebound with the Crude ?Last week, we saw a huge short squeeze in oil and it seems that there could bee a opportunity for Crude's bulls.
The RUB lost a big part of its value due to the Global fall in commodity prices.
However if we believe RUB and Crude touched the bottom, then we could try a short USDRUB, or if you think EUR is going to be smashed by Yellen on September (or October, or December... #fedratehike), then Short EURRUB.
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB HOLDS UPTREND TEST DESPITE OILUSDRUB held uptrend test on 1-year and quarterly basis (bounced back from 1st standard deviations from 1-year (264 days) and quarterly (66 days) means).
What is strange, Russian Ruble continues to fall despite downtrend in WTI oil has failed recently. (see related)
If price continues to trend upwards (above 66) - likely target is 80, a level outlined by Russian Central Bank today as the price at which it will raise interest rates again.
Failure of USDRUB uptrend will be confirmed only when price tags quarterly mean (at 60 now)
Brent Oil vs RUBThis is the comparison of reversed Brent price dynamics vs Russian Rouble starting from Feb-2014 (CAD is provided for reference). As it can be seen Russian Rouble rate mostly followed oil prices. However starting from December RUB rate was artificially adjusted. Now it seems it's time for readjustment.
Long oil and gold: Currency Basket tradeI can come up with a variety of instruments to trade based on the recent macroeconomic events, but right now I'd like to focus on these, since they give me a relatively close timeframe for the reversal date.
Mark your calendars, between February the 5th and 9th, because I think these pairs will start moving strongly in the directions of these arrows.
I'll post technical setups as they come, for now, some food for thought.
Have a good weekend everyone!