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It's the market, babyINVESTMENT CONTEXT For the first time in over three decades Germany reported monthly trade deficit in goods, which accounts for EUR 1bn, against analyst expectations of EUR 1.2bn surplus. The spike in energy prices translated into higher import costs, while the sanctions imposed on Russia and China’s coronavirus lockdowns negatively affected exports Iran slashed the prices of its crude oil to stay competitive with Russia in regards to Chinese clients, in an attempt to maintain market share amidst OPEC's approved volume increases In the first half of 2022 coal imports in Europe increased by 35% on a yearly basis, earmarking the continent's struggle to cope with lower crude oil and natural gas supplies from Russia In June, the Caixin China General Services Purchasing Managers Index reached 54.5, beating analysts expectations of 49.7. Analysts appreciate the index crossing the 50-point threshold which separates expansion from contraction The ECB expressed concern on the potential overlapping amongst the EU member States in the matter of regulating cryptocurrencies. Aiming at "harmonizing" the bloc's policy-making on the issue, the bloc is about to implement Markets in Crypto-Assets, or MiCA, framework  After shedding USD 200mln assets in the past three weeks, Coinbase-backed crypto lender Vauld suspended trading and withdrawals. Meanwhile, Estonian cryptocurrency exchange capped withdrawals to USD 5k a day PROFONE'S TAKE European electricity prices hit record high levels, soaring on July 4 to EUR 325/MWh in Germany and EUR 366/MWh in France. European zinc and aluminum producers, whose activity hinges on energy prices, are struggling due to the combined effect of surging costs and falling prices on industrial metals as recession fears loom. Profs maintain bearish views on European energy, not ultimately considering that Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be closed for maintenance starting July 11. Elsewhere, French nuclear capacity stands at historical lows, since the country had to shut down for an indefinite period 12 of its 56 reactors due to unexpected corrosion of infrastructures. As a result, neighboring countries are now forced to burn additional gas to provide France with electricity, while all continent struggles to fill inventories before winter under mounting fears of further Russia's cuts of gas supply. PROFZERO'S TAKE What is a currency? To think of currencies in terms of supply and demand tends to be trickier than, for instance, commodities. After all, how can there be "demand" for money? What is the use for one, especially if foreign? And what is the return? In reality, it takes but to look at 2 pairs to understand the extend of supply-demand logics into FX markets. Looking at RUB/USD, we see right away that something must be off. The pair is now trading below its point before the war (61.08 vs. 75.45 on February 7), at a time when Russia had 9.5% interest rate and U.S. was still stuck at zero-rate. Today, the base rate applied by the Russian Central Bank is still 9.5% (after it shot to 20% a few days following the invasion of Ukraine), while that imparted by the Fed is 1.50%; yet, RUB is stronger than ever. Why? Because demand can't fully satisfy itself unloading RUB-based exposure (think of Russian equities held by international investors), while artificial demand for RUB has been created when Gazprom (GAZP) demanded energy bills to be honored in currency. Looking at EUR/USD instead, it is hard to justify the 15% slide on a yearly basis just by looking at fundamentals. While it is true that the Fed's monetary policy has been much more responsive to inflation than the ECB's, forward rates ought to be tilted to a sensibly stronger EUR due to more resilient growth in the area. Why is that not happening? The answer lies in the USD 4tn capitalization wiped from the S&P 500 and perhaps also the USD 2.1tn evaporated in the blockchain space - an unprecedented watershed of cash which sought refuge in cash USD-denominated deposits.
by ProfZero
USDRUB made 7 year lows but getting close to long-term buy levelThe USDRUB pair hit this week the lowest levels since June 2015, marking a remarkable turnaround for the Ruble (drop on the pair around -65%) since the March 2022 High at the peak of the Russia - Ukraine invasion. With this massive drop, the pair is getting very close to the Higher Lows trend-line that started during the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. on July 2008. This chart is on the 1W time-frame (log), with the RSI also approaching its own multi-year Support Zone. With the April - May 2015 Support Zone (made during another period of huge uncertainty in Russian economy) also close around 49.00, it is obvious that the price is near the most significant long-term Support cluster. As a result, our long-term strategy on the pair has turned heavily bullish, targeting at first the Pivot trend-line (71.00) that should act as the first Resistance. The pattern is invalidated if we get a monthly candle closing below the 2008 Higher Lows trend-line. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
2
Rub vs USD, What’s next Mr.PUTIN ?For political reasons that everyone knows, and due to the repercussions of the Ukrainian-Russian crisis, everyone is eagerly awaiting the status of the Russian ruble currency. With the beginning of the crisis, the Russian ruble fell against the dollar last February From 74 rubles per dollar to about 130 rubles per dollar with the beginning of the entry into force of economic sanctions,, But after a very short period of time, the Russian ruble became the best-performing currency in the world since the beginning of the year against the dollar As he compensated for all his losses against the dollar, he was not satisfied with it, but rather turned towards achieving gains. Logic tells us that as a result of what happened, if the situation continues as it is and you do not see a strong change in the situation that would restrict the Russian movements, we will see the Russian ruble achieve more strength against the dollar As shown in the chart, we may see the value of the Russian ruble become 32 rubles per US dollar, and it may achieve much more than that. Only days will tell if we see this or not
ULong
by ahmed_elshehapy
1
USDRUB for a new ATH following the crisis 🦐USDRUB on the monthly chart is testing a historical resistance at the 80 levels after the test with a spike of the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The market after the recent news on the Ukrainian crisis is pushing higher and we can expect some break above for a new ATH. How can we approach this scenario? Even though is very risky to trade with high volatility if the price will break above we can move to the lower timeframes and check for a possible long entry. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
Ruble Where You Going ? Hi traders: With the tension between Russia and Ukraine, we can expect the market to be volatile and moving during an uncertainly time. As we know, USD is a safe haven currency, and here on USDRUB, we can see clear bullish price action on the bigger time frames. With many bullish impulse phases follow by bullish continuations, price is getting push up to all time highs. This is where usually price will consolidate, and potential to continue or reverse back down. For me, my personal options is leaning more upside and continuation up move. What we should wait for is some sort of bullish continuation correction on the lower time frames, to confirm the upside move. With the situation between the two countries may get worse, USDRUB could on route to a new highs. thank you
by jojofang0901
37
USD/RUB .. what we see?Hello traders .. I hope you are all well and safe. I believe that we all know what is happening on the geopolitical scene and how the market reacts in such situations. However, this is a USD/RUB chart. I don’t usually trade RUB and this is just my view which might be a good chance to make a profit. From a technical point of view, we have a target of ABCD 1.0 that matches with R3 (PP) and in that area the market will be in the oversold zone (BB). So this can provide bullish pressure (before that, we could get a fake break of this pennant). Keep in mind that geopolitics is in focus and no technical analysis will give good results if something different happens in the world.
Long
by merjemascerija
USDRUB can top around 93.500 but is due for a sharp correction.This is the much talked about (due to the pending sanctions against Russia) USDRUB pair on the 1W time-frame. As you see, it follows a very structured pattern within a multi-year bullish Channel. The price tops every time above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and one Fibonacci extension higher in the Channel than the previous Higher High. The sequence indicates that the next Higher High should be around 93.500. It is still a solid buy on the short-term but if the Cycle continues to repeat this pattern, then is due for a correction on the long-term back to Fib 1.0. Trade according to your horizon and risk tolerance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4