Rub
RUB Stability for Russian Rouble Trading opportunitie to 71.87.
Russian Rouble will be locked in
71.378-77.728 range this summer.
There are no fudamental factors
to support this currency, so anly
central bank can hold price below 77.72.
USD/RUB ANALYSISHI
USD/RUB reacted to its support line and will move upwards.
FOLLOW ME. STAY INFORMED UNTILL THE ANALYSIS IS DONE.
USDRUB 2015 PlaybookSee weekly chart in related ideas for macro context.
Expecting $USDRUB to play out in similar fashion.
Hedge on hedgeStill in hedge short to protect US stock profits, but from the looks of $ES and $CL $USDRUB is going to 100. Could test the middle of the channel like it did last time or breakout from the falling wedge shortly. Ready to flip long.
USDRUB updated chart target remains 85.90I updated the chart as structure changed from earlier pattern (see related).
Double three W-X-Y extended the consolidation.
I think crude oil (see related) will dip again so its natural that USDRUB will move higher for ruble weakness.
RUB prepares for last pushRUB had a great volatility in the last month. After performing whole impulse (87 or about), a relative stability will come....
USDRUB to retest the top of Y2016 at 85.90Previous ideas reached the targets (see related).
But this pair didn't fully emerge therefore I expect it to retest the former top of Y2016 at 85.90.
It will be wave 5.
Wave 4 is unfolding now and it could be flat/zigzag or a triangle as in the larger degree preceding correction.
USDRUB to hit 80 after correctionThis pair hit the target set in my earlier post (see related).
But it looks like it is not yet done.
There is an ABC flat correction building on the chart and wave C down is pending.
After that the move up could emerge to hit 80 - at that level the large second leg would hit 1.272 of the first leg up
and 0.618 of the move preceding the current flat correction.
USD/RUB Short Setup Push LIKE, FOLLOW and COMMENT below what do you think.
This my setup for this pair I’m still waiting for the bears to come.
Send me message on TELEGRAM if you want to follow my trades.
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THE RUSSIAN RUBBLE IN THIRD WAVE Since the 1-th wave in 1-th wave of bigger dimension was extensive that leaded to short 3-th wave and 5-th wave. When that phenomenon occurs it means that correction movement in second wave of bigger dimension may achieve to the bottom of not 4-th wave of smaller dimension and to the bottom of second wave of smaller dimension. On balance current analyse report us that Russian RUB reversed finally and now is in 3-th wave of bigger dimension.
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.03.02Fed rate cuts taking full control of the FX board as virus disruptions start to fade - it's time to go shopping in G10 and EM FX and the intervention policies will provide some USD relief. Here looking for a rebound into previous ranges in USDRUB as a pro-cyclical currency.
A test of the previous range we were trading looks around the corner:
The spread of the virus is naturally impacting global growth, and tipping OPEC towards intervention in Oil as well as a number of CBs. Markets now price Fed to cut 75bps by June - similar story in Australia with RBA, UK with BOE and BOC in Canada. Tracking closely for risk to find a temporary floor this week.
As usual thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming .. jump into the conversation below with your views on RUB!
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.19As widely expected USDRUB selling off from the 64.2x highs and a good time to collect half our chips from the table. Well done sellers, a textbook zigzag and flawless trade since the channel breakup so far. The spike was a textbook flushout with US sanctions acting as the catalyst.
For those tracking the previous diagrams the flows are wide open in the range, actively playing it makes complete sense to me in this environment:
Eventually expecting the grind towards the lows, risk sentiment around the COVID-19 will continue in the driving seat for further action here. Tracking closely 62.7x lows.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming!
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.18As widely expected we got a test of the highs at 64.2x once the channel was broken (see diagram). The ladder is light and I like to play this tight range and look for a test of the lows.
"Eyes here, looking to sell 64.2x on the day..." - This is currently in play, although risk is showing now signs of abating the low sizings are keeping a test of the lows on the cards. Tracking closely the highs, if we get a breakup then I will not be stubborn and hold onto the shorts, I will close. This is a tactical range trade.
Good luck all those in USDRUB, we can open the short-term sentiment conversations in the comments if we get enough interest. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.14I will keep this one quick as it is Friday afternoon... its clear that high beta has been in demand from some faster hands of late. Nothing of meaningful weight in the ladder, I think we will test the highs before pulling back. Another technical break to the topside in play with some strong US data. This looks set to test the highs in USDRUB for now. Tactical long on a breakout recommended.
You will notice how we never got the breakdown:
Buyers came in strong and seems happy to play the topside for now. A push from local banks in Russia as capital begins to pour back in will be enough to get us back to the 64.2 highs where I would look to cover and recycle shorts.
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the comments with your views on RUB!
The most perfect TA you'll ever seeThe USDRUB triple support confluence should be a meme. So perfect, so nice. 70RUB+ is pretty much a certainty.
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.12A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram:
No surprises sellers were fired up and ready to act again. There is a lot of room to the downside should we find a bounce into March for Oil. Happy to sit short and looking for a technical break with the NY open.
Good luck all RUB bulls, as usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
