CHMF - One more Russian metalurgic play for Q4-Q1'24 From a both, technical and fundamental perspectives, It looks like Russian metalurgic and extraction complex sets-up for the next wave higher in this Q4, or maybe early next year.
Maybe it is because of rubble current and future potential weakness, or because of the dividend that these companies (CHMF, MAGN, NLMK etc) pay or are planning to, we may observe rather neat base structures being in formation within supportive further advance ElliotWave structure.
My general thesis for Severstal is that the price has bottomed in running flat type corrective structure (running flat are rare in EW and are signs of a bullishness) and now is basing for break-out to new this year highs closer to 1530-1580 zone where I may see next resistance zone.
Please have look how price weekly advance is made on burst up in volume profile and how scares volume is, when price stops and digests its move. Holding above 10w line is crucial for me entertaining longs in any position and we may see how buyers actively support this moving average, not letting the price close bellow this line.
My personal plan, is to start building position above 1400 zone, if price breaks out with volume, having tight risk-management parameters within 3-5% breathing room.
I am perfectly fine staying out on the side line if the price will not cooperate or stops me out and waiting for the next low and time-right risk entry spot.
Rubble
💶 EUR; Lowest Rate in 19 Years ( Risk of Energy Crisis )🆖As the risks of an energy crisis increase, the euro is nearing its lowest level in 19 years
Today, the price of natural gas has increased by 9%, and the price of electricity for one year in Germany is 14 times higher than the level of one year ago. The numbers are crippling for heavy industries, with Germany's DAX down 2.3 percent today, the steepest drop in the global index.
The euro has strengthened over the past six weeks as the US dollar weakened against a less accommodative Federal Reserve, but that rally appears to have come to an end. Meanwhile, Europe's economic outlook is rapidly deteriorating. The EUR/USD low was at0.9952 in July and is now about 20 pips away. If this rate breaks, the euro will hit its lowest level since late 2002.What is surprising is that the people of Europe have not yet realized how bad the economic situation will be. There is a lag in energy price increases that has not yet been felt and depends on different countries and contract structures, but there is a lot of difficulty ahead.
✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE!
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USD/RUB - Regime Change IndicatorRegime Change Indicator
The Russian ruble will let us know when the madness might end.
The Russian ruble has halved in value over the last four months, accelerating that trend recently, coincident with economic sanctions being imposed by governments and by corporations themselves. At the start of the war, some economists noted that the Russian economy might be able to withstand sanctions given that it has made itself less reliant on foreign capital over the past decade. This is up for debate, but what is not, is the prospect of rampant consumer price inflation and increasing unemployment in Russia.
Attention is turning to how long the Putin regime can last before the Russian people rise up against it. Perhaps Elliott waves can give us a clue as to when that might happen.
Should the Putin regime be toppled, it will no doubt be subsequent to, or coincident with, an appreciating ruble. The chart of USD-RUB offers a compelling wave count whereby a Fibonacci 13-year advance in USD-RUB (depreciating ruble) is coming to an end. Within this count, Primary degree wave 5 (circled) will equal 1.618 times the length of waves 1 through 3 at 167.32 (a typical turning point when wave 5 is extended). This count also offers an Elliott channel target, connecting waves 2 and 4 and paralleling from wave 3, which comes in around current levels.
Thus, there appears to be quite strong evidence that USD-RUB is close to a top (i.e., a low in the ruble). Of course, the ruble can appreciate without the Putin regime being toppled but given the zeitgeist, a lasting low in the ruble (top in USD-RUB) would seem to be probable only with Russia re-entering the global economy, and that would mean Putin no longer being there.
If this wave count is correct, therefore, it might be a sign of hope that the madness will end soon.
Is Bitcoin Ready To Take Off?Weekly Time-frame
We are now trying to fill the long wicks to the upside. We are still inside Ichimoku Cloud. Greed and Fear index today is at #27 which is fear. Our correction today reach up to $39,400 which is our Tanken Sen Support and bounce right away to the upside. Awesome Oscillator (AO) still Bearish Saucer.
1D Time-frame
Bullish AO. We are now finding support in the Cloud at $40,767, once broken we are forming a lower high a descending triangle breakout to the downside. Bouncing Area of $39,400.
4H Time-frame
We found resistance in $41,000 once we flip it, it will be the next support as we are in the rally. once we get rejection we can expect more to the downside,. Next support is at $40,246, $39,900 top would be at $41,687 then goes down again for correction.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Rubble's reaction to Russian InvasionsIn 2008, Russia invaded the sovereign nation of Georgia. This invasion and resulting sanctions resulted in a 37.1% drop in the value of the Rubble vs. the U.S. Dollar. In 2014, Russia invaded the sovereign nation of Ukraine. The resulting international sanctions resulted in a 60.55% reduction in the value of the Rubble against the U.S. Dollar. This is likely just the beginning of the pain instore for the Rubble over the latest Russian invasion of the sovereign nation of Ukraine.
Russian Rubble Helps BTC PumpWe are witnessing #BTC History Today ...Russian's Bullish on Bitcoin.. Looking for $40K support
USDRUB Russian ruble is no longer aligned to Crude Oil priceI don`t want to be prophetic, but does George Soros ( 91 years), The Greatest Speculator of all time, want to be remembered as The Man Broke the Bank of Russia too?
Developments in Kazakhstan and NATO supporting Ukraine to defend against an invasion from Russia are bad signs for the ruble.
US, UK and other officials started the evacuation of their embassy employees Kyiv.
The US, UK and other NATO members warned Russia about the heavy sanctions bombardment in case the tension with Ukraine escalates.
Bank of Russia wants Full Ban on Crypto, calling Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme. Russia's central bank consider trading, mining and crypto usage illegal. the Russian Ministry of Finance also announced a halt of foreign currency purchases, to withhold the further downslide of the ruble.
I see an imminent breakout of usd to all time high if the tensions escalates.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
USD/RUB, what's next? 82, 86 or moon?You will learn the best place where we can trade this instrument at low risk.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade.