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Ruble

Russian Ruble CRUSHED! Lost The War!Russian Ruble FX_IDC:USDRUB is getting destroyed! Russia with an economy half the size of California can never go up against 60% of the global GDP while killing off nearly 1 million able-bodied men out of their economy. Corruption is out of control, 35% of the economy is allocated to the war, not future investment. Russia is suffering from Dutch Disease As usual #MMT gets it wrong again! As highlighted. So did the "sanctions don't work" crowd
Long
by RealMacro
4
Ruble developing ground to restructure third world economiesOn the presented chart we have prepared, you can see correlations of Ruble currency with Telecoms, Steel producing, Concrete producing, Land transport and Medicine. As you can see Ruble is building a solid ground to become a back end for the developing world destroyed by conflicts and fist fights. ATR is going down and from the june it shows backward correlation with Ruble. This is good because this means Ruble can rise without volatility. Telecommunications prices are falling after this event. Steel producing showing strange pattern and can be a risk for the Ruble. Concrete producing and transportation developing a good foundation. Transportation industry is still and strong. And medicine industry showing weakness but we see rise in pharmaceuticals profits so we hope this will drag whole venture up.
by UnknownUnicorn462803
2
A high geopolitical risk causes Russian ruble to dropNo new known macroeconomic factors could cause the current ruble devaluation. They say sanctions, some say a drop in imports ECONOMICS:RUIMP , others drop in exports ECONOMICS:RUEXP , brain drain, discounts on Russian oil, etc. Some blame the Prigozhin mutiny, but it doesn't change economic or political perspectives of Russia. In my opinion, all these factors are in the price. The events, except the contained mutiny, haven't appeared suddenly. The situation has been evolving since previous February. All mentioned factors were discussed and evaluated a hundred times by pundits, exporters, importers, traders, and others. I agree that Russian international trade is in bad shape, but not in the worst. Russian current account ECONOMICS:RUCA is still positive. It continues its drop from the historical highs reached last year to the depressed level of 2015. It is not a catastrophe compared with peers, having a worse current account and weaker national currencies, though are not sanctioned. You are reading a thankless type of forecast . I can't prove it with macro, but the determined bullish trend hints foreign currency buyers are aggressive because something forces them to sell rubles. I believe the current drop in the Russian ruble is caused by an anticipated huge geopolitical event that may have far-reaching consequences for Russia, like 24 February 2022. Before that date the ruble was oversold. Russia had a strong macro (robust current account on the back of high petroleum and metal prices.) During those three months, only newspapers disturbed with publications Russian would attack. It could partly exert pressure on ruble, but because the attack wasn't started, it became the boy who cried wolf. I can't prove it, but I suppose, that only a few people close to Putin could know what would happen and sell rubles and open short positions causing ruble fatigue before the war. Last week's ruble devaluation reminiscent me of the oversold ruble in February 2022. I hypothesize that people close to the Russian head are fearing some event in the nearest future. Those people, let's call them oligarchs, could sell rubles now or open shorts to hedge if the event happens. From the macroeconomic view, it is pure capital flight. The fear may be related to a Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant disaster and the West prospective actions. If something extraordinary happens, I won't be surprised if USD spikes to the previous high of 150 in several weeks (to the star of the Kremlin tower pattern drawn in spring 2022). If nothing occurs during the next 2-4 weeks, I expect ruble sellers to cool off and ruble retreat to 85 .
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
3
Mutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 MonthsMutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 Months In one of the most turbulent trading sessions this year, the Russian ruble reached its lowest point against the US dollar in nearly 15 months on Monday. This decline followed the failed mutiny attempt by The Wagner group’s armed mercenaries over the weekend, which caused significant concern among traders. Initially catapulting to approximately 87 rubles per US dollar, the ruble later recovered some of its losses, settling at around 84.40, down 0.90% against the greenback. The Wagner group, led by troops loyal to their leader, made an unexpected advancement toward Moscow, covering hundreds of miles before eventually reversing course. In a deal struck with the Kremlin, it is reported that the group's leader, Prigozhin, will go into exile in Belarus. This incident is regarded as the most significant challenge to Vladimir Putin's rule and could weaken his leadership. The armed uprising also caused volatility in other markets. The international benchmark, Brent crude, rose by 0.8% to approximately $74 per barrel. The trading volume between the Russian ruble and Tether's USDT nearly quadrupled from $4 million on Saturday to $15 million on Sunday. In other developments, the Japanese yen strengthened by 0.11% against the US dollar, trading at 143.50 per dollar. Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, stated that Japan was not ruling out intervening in the currency markets again. He expressed concerns about the yen's rapid and one-sided depreciation against the dollar. Japan previously intervened in the foreign exchange markets in September and October of the previous year when the yen hit a 32-year low of nearly 152 per dollar.
by BlackBull_Markets
The Rise (mean reversion) of the Russian RubleThe Russian Ruble is represented on an inverted, logarithmic scale vs.the G/S & G7 currency basket, where a rise in price levels on the chart indicates an irise in the Ruble. For all the widely known reasons the Russian Ruble remains a remarkably accurate yard stick of the march of imperialism and the states of various hegemonies ("Globalization", in short) for the past 20 years. The Russian Federation maintains 0 (zero) debt , a positive account balance, combined with what is most likely the largest horde of gold & foreign reserves outside (and insulated from) Western jurisdictions, making the currency remarkably stable - despite all the propaganda and wishful thinking to the contrary -, for the past two decades. (It has proven itself far more stable than other means or stores of value across the G-7. This is clearly a thorn in the side of others' continued imperialist aspirations.) These facts simply highlight the present (and potential future) opportunity, wherein any significant deviation from the Median likely represents a significant trading opportunity. LONG p.s. On the contrary, the current vogue of wide spread and simple-minded speculations, heralding the rise of China and hence, the Yuan/Remninbi as the new, potentially global reserve currency, are so fundamentally flawed that entire books have addressed the topic as of late, examining it in great detail and with accuracy. I.e., a rapidly collapsing Chinese population, quickly followed by de-industralization and de-urbanization a stable, global reserve currency does not make! - Among other, inherently disqualifying factors.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Nemo_Confidat
DXY: CBDC's Total Takeover? 🏛Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. For the past eight decades, the U.S. dollar has been the dominant global currency following the Second World War. It has been widely accepted worldwide, with only a few exceptions, and is commonly recognized by the image of Andrew Jackson and the seal of the U.S. Treasury, making it the most recognizable export of the United States. The U.S. dollar became the reserve currency of the world following the Second World War, mainly because the United States was the dominant global economic and military power at the time. The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 also played a crucial role in establishing the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. Under this agreement, other countries agreed to peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was backed by gold. This made the U.S. dollar a stable and reliable currency for international transactions, leading to its widespread acceptance as a reserve currency. Additionally, the U.S. had a large trade surplus, making it easier for other countries to hold dollars as reserves to pay for U.S. goods and services. The dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency has been a source of both admiration and resentment among other countries and superpowers. Many countries have benefited from the stability and liquidity that the U.S. dollar provides as a reserve currency, allowing them to conduct international trade and investments with greater ease. However, some countries have also experienced the negative effects of dollar dominance, such as the risk of currency fluctuations and the potential for U.S. monetary policy decisions to have spillover effects on their own economies. The U.S. dollar was not only commonly used in international transactions but also widely held as a long-term store of value across the globe. Central banks worldwide held more U.S. dollars than any other currency. This resulted in low borrowing costs for Americans, which allowed middle-class people to buy homes. Furthermore, the U.S. government was able to incur significant debts without apparent consequences due to the dollar's global dominance. Americans may not have been aware of this situation, but it had a favorable impact on their daily lives. Occasionally, the Congress discussed the debt ceiling, but it seemed like an abstract topic that most people did not care about since America controlled the global reserve currency and could print U.S. dollars. This privilege made money cheap, and Americans enjoyed benefits that were not available to other countries. However, the thought of losing this dominance was too terrible to contemplate, and concerns began to arise around the time the Russian military entered Ukraine about a year ago. The consequences of such a loss would be dire, and it was a worrisome issue. The Russian military's invasion of Ukraine was destabilizing, as wars typically are. However, it was the West's reaction to the invasion that raised concerns. U.S. policymakers, led by USA President Joe Biden and supported by Republican senators, seemed intent on not only toppling the Russian government but also disrupting the post-World War II economic order that had benefitted the U.S. for decades. The sanctions weren't expected to harm the U.S. economy more than the Russian economy. Russia's economy is not heavily reliant on financial services but on natural resources such as oil, gas, iron, and coal. Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia, its Ruble remains stable against the US dollar, which suggests that the sanctions did not have a significant long-term impact on Russia's economy. The seizure of Russia's central bank's dollar reserves was intended to collapse Russia's credit system and cause bank runs, but it didn't happen. The USA did not consider the dangers when using the dollar, the sign of security and unity, as a weapon. The result of this is unsurprising, many countries lost confidence in the dollar. And so, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, India, Malaysia, France, China, and Saudi Arabia are conducting business in currencies other than the US dollar, such as the Chinese currency Yuan. This is happening at a fast pace and shutting out the US dollar, which is losing trust from other countries due to its use as a weapon and excessive printing, leading to inflation and currency devaluation. 💭Final Thoughts 💭 We look to history to speculate on the future. As the saying goes, history repeats itself. During the First World War, the German government borrowed heavily to finance the war effort, resulting in a significant increase in national debt. The government continued to print money to pay for its expenses, which led to hyperinflation and a collapse of the German economy in the early 1920s. In 1923, the German mark was practically worthless, and people had to carry wheelbarrows of money to buy basic goods. This hyperinflation had a devastating effect on the German people, wiping out their savings and pensions and causing widespread poverty and social unrest. The situation stabilized when the German government introduced a new currency, the Rentenmark, backed by mortgages on agricultural and industrial land which restored some degree of confidence in the currency. The German government basically inflated their currency due to excessive debt accumulated from war. The United States has a similar history with wars, relying on the reserve currency status to recover from the economic damage of these wars. However, considering the large economical impact of Russia and BRICS's contribution the the economy, it could be catastrophic due to the current state of the US economy. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are exploring the possibility of creating a new reserve currency as an alternative to the US dollar-dominated international financial system. The proposal was discussed at a virtual meeting of the BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors, with a goal to decrease the dependency on the US dollar and increase trade between member countries. However, no specific details were provided yet about the potential reserve currency. However, it's highly likely that this "new reserve" will be in digital form, as a CBDC (central bank digital currency). _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
TVC:DXYShort
by CryptoCheck-
13
USDRUB updateUR has reached strong fibo level. It seems like it will continue to rise(big bullish candle). But I wouldn't be surprise if it start to revers now. Why? Firstly it has touched strong resistance level that was holding price almost for 6 years. So its a strong level even though it was broken in February 2022. Secondly. If you look at dollar index (green line) which represents strength of a dollar you will see that it's strongly bearish. As you can see from correlation UR and DI has positive correlation (if dollar falls ruble falls also) but with some delays. For example DI started to rise in May 2021 when UR had made big pish up only in November 2021. I still see UR in sell zone. But April will be deciding month for Russian ruble (and most currencies). If price will continue to rise next key levels are 87-89 and 90 rubles per 1 dollar. First target as I have mentioned in my previous analysis is 50 rub/dollar and max target is 30 rubles per dollar. Let see how it'll go. Good luck:)
Short
by margarita_morozova
4
Ascending triangle on the USD/RUB pair. What to expect next?Hello. On the USD/RUB pair, a technical analysis pattern of an ascending triangle is forming. We have two potential scenarios. The first scenario is that if the ascending trend line is broken and the price consolidates below it we can expect further price decline to the Fibonacci level of 0.618 or 66 RUB/USD. On the chart it is noticeable how the support levels correlate with Fibonacci levels. The second scenario is that the price breaks through the resistance zone around 78 RUB/USD and continues to move upward to 86 RUB/USD. This price range is a global resistance level. If you go back on the chart you can see how the asset approached this level back in 2015 and then underwent a correction. This is not financial advice. Everything you do is at your own risk.
by neverovv
Forecast CNYRUB #FOREX #CNYRUB Good Saturday night to everyone! What's happening now? The Central Bank of the Russian Federation continues to keep the ruble exchange rate in manual control, which is why we are observing a protracted lateral movement. But now we will not dive into the fundamental wilds of why, why and who benefits from it, but just see what our trading system says. Especially yesterday we were all very emotionally stressed:) So there are still two key magnets on the system at the top - on ~ 11.3 and ~ 13.3 Before that, it is likely that there may be a decrease in the green zone by 6.5-7.3, where you can rebalance the foreign exchange portfolio, that is, add more yuan. At the same time, you need to understand that markets, like a world device, are now staggering and moving extremely high frequency, so any deal now is a risk! Calculate the risks in advance so that the psyche is intact in cases where everything does not go according to plan. * This post is not investment advice
Long
by airstels
EUR/GEL trend analysisin my opinion the strengthening of the GEL is due to mainly the Russian migration or moreover the Russian escapee from their homeland cause of the global sanctions imposed on them, and Georgia is the one & only country on earth that has this easy visa politic towards Russia, long story short, they couldn't find a better country to become permanent residents without actually having to apply for it formally, but they could instead stay in Georgia for 100 years and always be considered as tourists, this has drawn huge influx of capitals towards Georgia and subsequently the demand of the local currency Lari saw a major surge in the past decade. In fact, nowadays EUR/LARI quote is at the 2016 levels, which is tremendously good for Georgia, in a very positive way. I see this support for the Euro handling it good and sending the Lari to a more higher levels once summer kicks out and all this influx calms a bit, it might have a decent rebound over this levels here
Long
by INSANEMOANING