Ruble
Long EURRUB - mid term setupLooking forward for a reversal in Euro / Ruble pair in a short time around low 60s levels.
Watching for a MA(14), as even 1 bar breakout can result a change of movement.
To be continue with UPDs after mid-March expiration.
Our initial target is at 80 lvl.
Russian Ruble USDRUBRuble will probably gain in value due to rise ukoil caused by opec oil production cuts which is most likely.
Oil rig to fall soon - Brent and Ruble ready to riseRussian Ruble has recently touched 4.5-month high, but the oil rebound gives the currency the hope to appreciate again. And the chances for oil surge are growing.
There are several factors that may affect oil moves from verbal interventions to the EIA stocks change data and oil rigs. We have already seen data from the EIA this week. The OPEC officials still keep silence. So, all we have is Baker Hughes data scheduled for release tonight.
Judging by the reports, the oil rig number has approximately 3-month lag when reacting to the oil moves. It means the current surge is triggered by the long-term period of oil appreciation seen since February, 2016. And the bearish trend came to an end 3 months ago. What’s interesting, the current number of oil rigs was last seen when Brent was around $80.00 bbl.
What does it mean? It means the oil rig number will soon reverse the trend. The current price levels are unfavorable for further rapid increase of output. And there is a chance to see the decrease of the Baker Hughes number today. For the first time during the last 5.5 months. And this will be enough to revive a demand on Brent sending it to 46.30 in the nearest future.
Under such scenario, USD/RUB may go back to 59.00 with next target at 58.60.
Helen Rush,
Senior Analyst at Capital Markets
USDRUB Consolidation patternUSDRUB is in a consolidation pattern looking to break out. The consolidation is getting tighter and tighter. Look to go LONG or SHORT once a direction is found. If it breaks below, I will go short and hold for a long time because there is very little support beneath 48. (My bias remains on the downside but only time will tell.)
LONG USDRUB FOR 175LONG USDRUB FOR 175
According to DXY index, WTI & Brent oil prices and the huge traded volume of RGBI Index, we're going to see 175 Rubles per US Dollar.
DXY 110 - 120
USOIL 10$ - 20$
USDRUB 175 - 250 Rubles
Ruble barrel, DXY adjusted - long term projectionHere's long term projection for ruble/barrel (ukoil * usdrub) aka rublebochka, DXY adjusted.
usdrubexpect 68 Russian rubles for a US Dollar nearest months once oil falls below the significant level of $45 a barrel.
Or 54 and below if Brent oil reaches 57 and breaks above.
RTSRTS going to channel. All indicators show next move need go up.
Need go up with all US indexes and EU indexes
USDRUB (MOEX). New count. Back to September idea. Target 44. Quite often the first idea in your mind is correct, call it divine providence but it works.
So the more I am analyzing corrective structures the better should be labelling ))).
So this detailed count of what was seen last September - into related ideas below.
The target is conservative at 44 RUB where Y=W.
EXXON MOBIL BUY SET UP REX TILLERSON RUSSIA CRUDE OILTarget 1) 96.50
Target 2) 104.00
This is for my trade journal only feel free to comment.
Oil to Ruble correlationThere's no secret the oil price is a proxy to Russia economic expectations, yet oil correlation to RUBUSD (line chart, inverted to a more common USDRUB cross) is just impressive. Trading dynamics on both instruments is close to identical most time during the year.
USDRUB. View changed. Updated structureMy previous idea showed the strength of the RUB.
I watched it closely and the very tight range and a lot of see-saw moves on USDRUB daily chart changed my mind.
I think we are not going to go much lower. I would quit short and book profit.
Updated view shows the corrective structure upside with the large C pending.
Target for C highlighted in a white rectangle with range between 50 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
GOLD OZ IN RUSSIAN RUBLES, STILL ATTRACTIVE TO HOLD
GOLD OZ IN RUSSIAN RUBLES, STILL ATTRACTIVE TO HOLD
SBERBANK RUS. SHORT. HALVING THE PRICE IN USD IS THE WAYSBERBANK RUS, SHORT. HALVING THE PRICE IN USD IS THE WAY.
SL levels as they drawn. TP as described.
USDRUB IS GOING UP FOR 103 AND 128.t seems that the 2nd wave is done and we're going to see 103 rubles per dollar in 1 to 2 months.
Good point to go LONG USDRUBIt seems that we'll see reversal point at USDRUB soon and beginning of a new uptrend. Expected oil downward correction will serve as a further confirmation for that idea.
USDRUB is going for 113 and 128.It seems that the 2nd wave is done (or we're in ending) and we're going to see 113 rubles per dollar in 3 to 6 months.
