BTC Longs - Ruble BTC chartsTop left BTC longs
Bottom left BTC USD chart
Top right RUBLE RUBLE USD chart
Bottom right RUBLE BTC chart
the RUBLE BTC chart is highly correlated with the BTC chart. The liquidations were added as the Ruble price rises and it looks like they were adding margin because it doesent show liquidations, just a run up and flat, run up and flat. I believe they are at a break even point around 32k so that has to be some HEAVY resistance that BTC needs to break through to keep running up to my target of 39k
Ruble
Will the Russian Ruble keep appreciating vs other currencies?The truth is that the most likely answer is yes, the Ruble will keep going higher. Russia is a massive commodities exporter, from oil & gas, to wheat, and therefore there is a constant bid for its currency due to the natural demand for its resources. As Russia is hit by several sanctions, it is very hard for them to buy stuff from outside of Russia, and therefore even less money is flowing out of the country. The government has also imposed capital controls, and it is hard for its citizens to sell their currency for USD, EUR etc.
The Central bank also raised rates from 5% in 2021 up to 20% post invasion, and have now dropped rates to 11%. Even though that's still a pretty high number and inflation in Russia is much higher than 11%, however this rate is still much higher than what many countries are offering. A 9% cut in interest rates couldn't even bring the currency down, a major sign of strength.
However in my opinion the most important aspect is that Russia has very low debt and could take the hit, while most other countries can't raise rates without breaking everything. They also have significant amounts of Gold, and what remains to be seen is what happens to their FX reserves that have been frozen. If they totally lose these reserves then the currency could suffer, but for now it is possible that they get their reserves back. Forcing 'hostile' countries to pay them in Rubles isn't as important as people think, as they could have accepted payments in Euros for example, and then used that money to buy their own currency. This was mostly a power play and a statement that energy sanctions are futile.
Now in terms of TA, the Ruble got insanely oversold after having a huge breakdown (USDRUB breaking out), but when the dust settled, many people who were short were forced to cover as their brokers wouldn't allow them to trade the Ruble. Many accounts were probably blown up due to the whole sanctions, capital controls and so on, that made it very hard for traders to go long or short. As USDRUB started coming down, longs were getting crushed and everyone had to start closing their positions. The market became illiquid and unstable, and mainly damaged those betting against the Ruble.
At the moment USDRUB has gotten incredibly oversold, as it broke the S3 Yearly Pivot, as well as the S3 Monthly Pivot, and broke the 2020 Covid low, as well as the 2017-2018 lows. The bounce is mostly driven by technical reasons (taking out stops & being oversold), as well as the 3rd rate cut. However in terms of TA, it looks pretty likely that it is heading for 36$. The whole reversal from 160 all the way down here is still very bearish and an indication that lower prices are coming. The rejection at the diagonal resistance is pretty bearish, and the entire 2013-2015 rally / breakout could be reversed. In the short term the market could trade between 55 & 70, but in the long term it is going to go lower.
EURO USD : RETEST OF CHANNEL RESISTANCE THEN BREAK TARGET $1.65EURO USD is looking pretty good on the MACRO. A break of the channel was attempted but failed. I believe a retest of the rising trend-line within the channel is possible without a break below but if it breaks below we may retes the bottom of the channel support before moving up and breaking out of the channel. I dont think that is what will happen because the MACD has a fresh curl up, RSI is curling up it looks like a move up is incoming. This is not trading financial advice this is just my opinion. Thank you.
Russian Ruble - Harasho Normalina First of all:
We Hate war. All people should and could live in Peace! May Peace happens fast. (Now if possible)
To the math:
Russian Ruble attached to Gold standard + Putin's 'Ruble for gas or no gas at all' rules = an EPIC recovery
To the chart:
Price of USDRUB on support and i personally expect this to reverse back up, in other words i see the Ruble leaving some gains behind next.
Volatility will be on as MAY 9 approaches and we don't know what to expect fundamentally. Will Putin make things worse on May 9 (Victory day)? Or will he call an end and pull out?
The first scenario might seem more likely but we could expect surprises.
In any case, no politics here..just PEACE you idiots!
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR 🕊️
(Let the Crypto Unite You - Be traders, not Soldiers)
Why has the Russian ruble not collapsed yet?
Russia’s efforts to prop up the ruble appears to be working despite sanctions imposed by Western countries aimed at cutting the Kremlin’s access to external resources and crippling the nation’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine.
Last week, the ruble surged to a more than two-year high against the euro and the US dollar, recouping its losses during the war. The rally was triggered by Russia’s last-ditch attempt to avoid defaulting on a eurobond on Friday.
Russia’s finance ministry paid $564.8 million in interest on a 2022 eurobond and $84.4 million on another 2042 bond, the ministry said Friday. Both payments were made in US dollars, marking a reversal from its previous threat to pay its debts in rubles.
To begin this week, the ruble has continued its strong performance, with the USDRUB down almost 3%. As it stands, Rubles are exchanging hands at less than 69 per USD.
Rating cut to selective default
Prior to the payment of these bonds, Russia had earlier paid its dollar-denominated bonds in rubles, triggering a rating downgrade by S&P Global Ratings to “selective default.”
The rating agency said investors won’t likely be able to convert those payments into dollars equivalent to the amount due as sanctions on Russia are predicted to worsen in the coming weeks.
Gas for ruble
In a bid to bolster the ruble and retaliate against Western sanctions, Russia, one of the top oil-producing countries worldwide, required “unfriendly” buyers of the country’s natural gas to pay in rubles. While many European Union leaders were quick to reject the Kremlin’s demands, one of Germany’s biggest energy companies, Uniper, said it was ready to buy Russian gas by converting its euro payments into roubles.
"We consider a payment conversion compliant with sanctions law and the Russian decree to be possible," a spokesman was quoted by BBC as saying recently, adding that the absence of Russian gas “would have dramatic consequences for our economy.”
Russian national energy giant Gazprom recently cut off its gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to their refusal to pay in rubles.
Commodity powerhouse
Many countries’ reliance on Russian oil and other commodities like wheat has helped the ruble avoid collapse and may play a role in supporting the currency moving forward.
Vyacheslav Volodin, a top Russian lawmaker, over a month ago said Russia should demand ruble payments for other commodities like wheat, fertilizer, and lumber, adding that Western governments have to pay for their decisions to sanction Russia.
Patience on the Ruble with Olmec Strategy ENG / ESP
ENG
The Ruble faces strong resistance at the 0.0121 level and the question remains;
Has it already flipped the previous level for support?
In my opinion this has not yet happened and the entry remains in the same position as in the previous post.
Personally I did not expect such a strong rally after the trend changed. I expected a much more aggressive selling despite the trend change given the combination of events on the ground and changes to natural gas purchasing agreements.
By inverting the Price volume trend we can see more clearly that the current volume is unsustainable.
I am expecting a 10 - 15% price decrease in the Ruble in the next few days.
ESP
El Rublo enfrenta una fuerte resistencia en el nivel de 0.0121 y la pregunta permanece;
¿Ya ha cambiado el nivel anterior por soporte?
En mi opinión esto aún no ha sucedido y la entrada se mantiene en la misma posición que en la publicación anterior.
Personalmente, no esperaba un repunte tan fuerte después del cambio de tendencia. Esperaba una venta mucho más agresiva a pesar del cambio de tendencia dada la combinación de eventos sobre el terreno y cambios en los acuerdos de compra de gas natural.
Al invertir la tendencia del volumen del precio, podemos ver más claramente que el volumen actual es insostenible.
Espero una disminución del precio del rublo del 10 al 15% en los próximos días.
Bears Controlling Dumping To 40K!!Weekly Time-frame
We are currently sitting in the breakout area of the double bottom. If we don't hold this area we can expect more to the downside. If we hold this area we can expect a massive pump again but this has little to no probability at all. Bearish has more bearing to happen than the bullish scenario as we can see the SPX Russel 2000 stocks are dropping. Bitcoin is just following the bigger market.
1D Time-frame
We have a bearish Engulfing in daily time-frame which we can expect more to the downside. To be bullish we need to go above $44,270 to $44,723 and make it as base then we can expect a rally base rally. For now where the pump started is now going back from it $40,972. Today is weekend so do not expect much volume. I suggest to trade alt coins during weekend.
4H Time-frame
We are having a drop base drop at the moment. Expect a retest to $43,118 before it drops again but if the trend is strong We might bounce only up to $42,769. AO is bearish still. RSI is also bearish.
1H Time-frame
How to trade
Entry $42,769, $43,249, $43,746
SL 1-5% from whole portfolio $47,186
Leverage 10x-11x
Use 1% from whole portfolio.
TP 1 $42,527
TP 2 $42,089
TP 3 $41,106
TP 4 $40,881
TAYOR
DYOR
NFA
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Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Russia's Ruble and Ruble InflationSince 1997 the Ruble has been in free fall (see chart on left, 3 month line chart showing drop since 1997 through today).
Anyone talking about the pre-war recovery needs to zoom out and look at the bigger picture.
Two days ago, inflation was at 9%, it has nearly doubled in that time, skyrocketing to 16.7% (chart on right, shows inflation since near the start of the pandemic).
9 Millionth Bitcoin Has Been Mined, Could We See a Pump?Monthly Time-frame
We have closed a green candle on March. Rejection area or the supply zone is at $47,100. Good to open short position at the moment. a test to the demand zone is also possible for stronger pump to the upside. Demand zone is waiting at $37,700. This is possible if the stock market starts crashing.
Weekly Time-frame
We still have 1D and 21 hours left for the next weekly candle. $42,486 is a test of the demand zone. We are currently in the low volume node in VPVR which is easy to break to the downside.
1D Time-frame
We are about to form double top as Bitcoin and Stocks usually does it to get more retailers to be greedy and fearful. then gets dump again. Awesome Oscillator is still bearish with red volume ripe for correction.
4H Time-frame
Our Long signal in the afternoon made us good profit. our signal in the evening is too early to short most have hit their stop loss already. The market usually makes double top to liquidate the short and long first before continuing the downtrend. We can expect more to the downside in the following days. Supply zone is being respected we can start opening short position at $46,517, $47,440 and keep stop loss above the previous high. SL at $48,548 to make sure not to hit the sl.
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Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.