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Ruble

USDRUBSo many talks about RUB and Oil last days. Well, as for oil - was waiting this downtrend since January , a lot of people told me that im incorrect and USOIL will go up... now its about 30$ per barrel, and im sure that this is not the end ( ofc oil will make a correction before going down again). And now ruble . In 2018 we've made wave (1) and whole 2019 was a correction in wave (2). As u can see, price made a pivot just in the golden zone (61% fibo). After that, rub devaluated for about 20% in a few days. You think that think that this is the end? As for me, I think that this is only beginning. So globally we have 3 possible targets (yellow lines) : 89, 113, 145. In my opinion 89 will be too small, so for me main target in wave (3) is 113. Stay tuned, I think in future I will post a few more ideas about Russian ruble . If u wanna to support this idea - like and comment it, please.
Long
by dimonle
6
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.19As widely expected USDRUB selling off from the 64.2x highs and a good time to collect half our chips from the table. Well done sellers, a textbook zigzag and flawless trade since the channel breakup so far. The spike was a textbook flushout with US sanctions acting as the catalyst. For those tracking the previous diagrams the flows are wide open in the range, actively playing it makes complete sense to me in this environment: Eventually expecting the grind towards the lows, risk sentiment around the COVID-19 will continue in the driving seat for further action here. Tracking closely 62.7x lows. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.18As widely expected we got a test of the highs at 64.2x once the channel was broken (see diagram). The ladder is light and I like to play this tight range and look for a test of the lows. "Eyes here, looking to sell 64.2x on the day..." - This is currently in play, although risk is showing now signs of abating the low sizings are keeping a test of the lows on the cards. Tracking closely the highs, if we get a breakup then I will not be stubborn and hold onto the shorts, I will close. This is a tactical range trade. Good luck all those in USDRUB, we can open the short-term sentiment conversations in the comments if we get enough interest. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.14I will keep this one quick as it is Friday afternoon... its clear that high beta has been in demand from some faster hands of late. Nothing of meaningful weight in the ladder, I think we will test the highs before pulling back. Another technical break to the topside in play with some strong US data. This looks set to test the highs in USDRUB for now. Tactical long on a breakout recommended. You will notice how we never got the breakdown: Buyers came in strong and seems happy to play the topside for now. A push from local banks in Russia as capital begins to pour back in will be enough to get us back to the 64.2 highs where I would look to cover and recycle shorts. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the comments with your views on RUB!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.12A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram: No surprises sellers were fired up and ready to act again. There is a lot of room to the downside should we find a bounce into March for Oil. Happy to sit short and looking for a technical break with the NY open. Good luck all RUB bulls, as usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
Price of the epidemic, the Fed and BoE decisionsYesterday, investors felt less relaxed and confident than it was on Tuesday. The VIX index stopped pouring, gold even rose by the end of the day, the Russian ruble returned to decline, as did oil. That is, everything is back. Investors can understand: the number of deaths continues to grow rapidly, as does the number of cases. As a result, the current epidemic has already exceeded the 2003 SARS epidemic in scale. But events are still developing. Yes, China is doing everything possible and impossible to stop the epidemic: closing transport links, prolonging holidays, isolating entire cities - all this has a well-defined economic price. ING experts believe that this could cost China a loss of 0.3% of GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2020. So for now, we are only strengthening our desire to buy safe-haven assets, stock market assets and other risky assets such as the Russian ruble. In addition to reports on the situation with coronavirus, the main event of the day yesterday was the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee. As expected, they did not change the bid. Of interesting and important. The Fed has extended repos at least until the end of April this year. That is, the markets will continue to fill in with money, which in itself is an occasion for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. Today, the Fed will intercept the baton of the Bank of England. Despite the fears of some investors that the Central Bank will reduce the rate at the meeting, we believe that the monetary policy parameters will remain unchanged. Given that the pound has dipped quite well recently, today we will buy it against the dollar. But with mandatory small stops because surprises, although unlikely, are possible. In addition, the US GDP data will be published today. This is the final reading, so no surprises should be expected, but the indicator is important in itself, so you need to follow it up.
Long
by Trade24Fx