Russell Futures ( RTY1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Russell Futures ( RTY1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 2033.0
Pivot: 1909.8
Support: 1832.2
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for RTY1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to retest the pivot at 1909.8, where the overlap support is before heading towards the resistance at 2033.0, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to break the pivot at 1909.8, where the overlap support is, before heading towards the support at 1832.2, where the previous swing low and 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Russell
Russell 2000 Potential for Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for RUT is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Look for a potential buy entry at 1789.4537, where the overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1722.0208, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 1911.6949, where the overlap resistance is.
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RUT Russell 2000 Santa Rally U.S. stocks tend to rise during the Santa Claus rally period.
The Santa Rally is considered the last five trading sessions of the year and first two of the new year.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has traded higher 78% of the time during the Santa rally period for an average gain of 1.3%.
My price target for RUT Russell 2000 is $1860.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$LNG in on both weekly and daily downtrendI am looking for a pull back to get in. This is my set up at the moment.
Entry; $148.47
S/L; $151.03
TP1; $141.35
TP2; $134.73
Please always do your own search and analysis before you take any trade. Do not rely on anyone :)
Yearly open price actionStocks closed pretty strong for the year, and the yearly open filled a gap very quickly. At the moment, I see very little evidence that the year will start with a massive dump, especially after 2022 was so brutal for stocks, bonds, and crypto. It looks more likely that things will first go up and then potentially go down. The market resuming its bounce makes more sense before it goes down again.
In my opinion, Q1 has the potential to be a bullish quarter, with SPX getting even up to 4400. It might be a massive bull trap, but it's possible. I think the Q1-Q3 period has the potential to be very choppy and much choppier than people imagine. Instead of having a clear trend, we might see a ton of chop that frustrates both bulls and bears, and then eventually a resumption either to the upside or downside, depending on what global liquidity is like and how markets force Central banks to act.
Even though I see a recession coming, I've been talking about how it wouldn't come in 2022 and that all we saw in 2022 was a slowdown and inflation, giving its place to disinflation. I doubt the recession will start in Q1 2023 and that markets might not crash until Q4 2023. At the same time, it's clear that the USD is in a challenging position and that the Fed is cornered while other central banks are increasing liquidity while raising rates. Maybe the market finally accepts that interest rates won't be higher than inflation over the next few years, and they price that in. Finally, we need to remember that the Fed started hiking in March 2022 and that the impact of their hikes could take anywhere from 12 to 24 months until they genuinely impact the economy.
So let's focus on what the current price action is telling us on SPX, NDX, and RUT. On my main chart, I have S&P 500 and the potential scenarios I see. I see the Monthly Pivot and the critical breakdown zone being tested. We currently have a double top at 3880 which will most likely be broken. A lot will then depend on whether the market will close above the Monthly Pivot. If it does, it may go significantly higher toward 4350-4400. Until I see a close below 3750, I don't think it makes sense to be very bearish, as the market is trading in a range, so it could first take out the highs, then the lows, and then move higher. It's, therefore, better to take it step by step.
For NDX below, we can see that the market has found decent support and could bounce. In my opinion, we will see new lows on Nasdaq much faster than all other indices, and I am pretty sure we will get new lows in 2023, even if we don't see other indices make new lows. For RUT, we are in a mini range, which is part of a more extensive range. And I think we first take the highs and then the lows. In my opinion, the market will trade both at 1630 and 1910, so it's all a matter of how we get to each point. Either way, both look very attractive for going long or short.
Russell 2000 Index - EXPLAINED - What, Why, Where, How?Small cap stocks, Penny stocks and pink sheets are the high adrenaline stocks investors play games in.
They are generally the cheaper, highly volatile, some are illiquid and can fluctuate 50% - 1,000% a day.
From the Wolf of Wallstreet glamorizing the potential returns for investors to your every day salesman broker trying to sell you the next winner.
But what is the Russell 2000 Index and what should we know about it?
I’m going to sum it up a bit of information about how it works and important facts you need to know
Enjoy!
WHAT IS IT?
The Russell 2000 Index (listed in 1984) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of small-cap publicly traded companies in the United States.
It is named after the Russell Investment Group, which operates the index.
The share price can vary significantly, as it is made up of a diverse range of small-cap publicly traded companies.
MARKET CAP
Small-cap stocks are generally ones with a market capitalization of between:
$50 million and $2 billion.
CRITERIA TO LIST STOCKS
There are a few criteria that needs to be met to qualify for the inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index:
• The company must be a publicly traded U.S. company.
• It must market capitalization of at least $50 million.
• Must be ranked in the bottom 2,000 of the Russell 3000 Index, based on market capitalization.
• Must meet certain liquidity requirements, including having a minimum average daily trading volume of at least 250 shares over the previous six months.
• Must have a minimum of one year of trading history.
WHAT IT CONSISTS OF
The index is made up of the smallest 2,000 publicly traded companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 98% of the total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the United States.
HOW IT OPERATES
The index is reconstituted annually, with new companies added and removed based on their market capitalization and other factors.
VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY
The Russell 2000 Index has a high level of volatility (greater price swings) and low liquidity (ease of flow of orders) compared to other large cap stocks.
DANGERS WITH THE INDEX
Currency risk: When the US dollar drops the index can follow
Diversification: There is no sector for the stocks. When the index drops the stocks follow.
Liquidity: You might find difficulties finding buyers or sellers to ease in or out of your positions.
Volatility: The jumpiness in the market is highly erratic.
Lack of analyst analysis: You’ll hardly see news coverage via the media which means, you could be left in the dark with what is going on in the companies.
Liquidation risk: You have a higher chance at being in a company that is about to be liquidated due to financial issues, no growth, manipulation and cooking the books.
Economic issues: When global economies collapse, stocks drop with it. Small cap stocks are no exceptions. This can affect the investment prospects
.
Russell1806 Target Achieved..New Pattern DevelopingTechnical & Trade View
Russell 2000 (e-mini futures contract)
Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1785
1806 Target Achieved..New Pattern Developing
Technicals
Intraday 1785 is primary support
Primary upside objective is 1882/92
Failure below 1780 opens a test of 1760 H4 Value Area High
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply: Discounted to 500 MVA & @support"Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply" ratio
1) It moves in a horizental trend in the long-term.
2) %20 discounted compared to 500 days MVA.
3) Nearly touched a major long-term horizental support.
Of course it can also move more downwards if the crisis/war deepens but we can say that the probability of upwards move is more likely.
First target: 0.095-0.100
RUSSELL 2000 IWN is approaching a key levelIWN as shown on the weekly chart has been obviously in a downtrend as also shown by
the EMA ribbon.
Using the uptrend from the Covid crash into November 2021 and then a retracement from that,
IWN is approchaing the 38.2 Fibonacci level at 128
From there it could bounce up or continue the downtrend.
The Mass Index being below 27 suggests a continuation before any potential reversal.
The MACD indicator shows the MACD in blue crossing down on the signal in red.
This also suggests more downtrend.
All in all, this analysis is bearish on the Russell index and its ETF.
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: Oversold RSI on the daily, looks to be putting in a short term bottom
Entry Level: 1685.0
Take Profit Level: 1759.0
Stop Loss: 1661.0
Risk/Reward: 3.08:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
RTY1!HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT RTY1! is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the Seller from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong SELLER will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: RSI bullish divergence, looking for a bounce on indices today!
Entry Level: 1789
Take Profit Level: 1829
Stop Loss: 1776
Risk/Reward: 3.08:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
RUT- Russell 2000 Mid Caps GOOD DAYS AHEADThe RUT ETF crashed with the COVID market phenomenon but then recovered better and faster than the SPY in 116 % of price appreciation
in less than the one year that followed. Since then RUT retraced about 1/2 of that uptrend.
Presently on the weekly chart, the price is relatively stable. The RSI bottomed out in the oversold territory and is now in mid-range
with RSI above its Ichimoku cloud. All of this is positive or at least not the overly negative of doom and gloom.
I believe that it will soon be time to begin a dollar cost averaging into some long-term call options on RUT
as things are not as bad as the media, banks and large institutional players want to portray to retail traders and
investors.
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Selling US2000Trade Idea: Selling US2000
Reasoning: Looking for selloff to extend - targeting 61.8% fib level
Entry Level: 1989.0
Take Profit Level: 13512.0
Stop Loss: 1953.0
Risk/Reward: 2.77:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
When is VIX a buy? Is this a good time to buy?The truth is that it is a buy whenever the VIX gets close to 20. Since November, and especially since the war in Ukraine broke out, I've said that the VIX below 20 is a steal. The VIX has just had a mini jump because of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, but if nothing happens between the US and China, it could fall lower.
Personally believe that stocks have another 7% higher to go, which could crush VIX below 20 for a while. However, I think this would be a bear trap and a great opportunity for bulls to go through long volatility. In the short term, stocks could correct a bit more before going higher, which could cause the index to go up a bit, though I don't think a big breakout or anything like it is coming. My long-term goal (6-12 months) remains 45-50 on the index, but it needs some time to get there, and it must inflict even more pain on all those who have been holding puts over the last year.
Keeping It SimpleThere's so much going on right now, but I think this chart sums it up for assets in general. This is a fairly simple idea I fantasized a while ago and it played out to my surprise. Every once and a while, the percentage of bullish stocks doubles, and then a selloff happens. Unless we can break this symmetry and make a clear break above 25, we should not expect anything special. It's easy to fomo in but possibly the best move is to move to other markets.
Also note the severity of the 2020 dump, before being launched by money supply expansion, among others:
We did not yet meet the level of the 2020 crash. Also, there is no money supply expansion this time. So, what would have happened in 2020 or perhaps 2008, should really happen this time, unless of course there is more money supply expansion.
Cheers and don't forget to hedge your bets!
Long Russell! - Trading w Commercials - Fading Speculators (COT)Looking at the net positions of the Commercials (Red Line), the Russell 2000 is at record high levels. Additionally, the small speculators (Blue Line - tough to see but it's blown up on lower indicator)) are very short compared to historical levels. The COT index on the bottom shows dark green when both commercials are maxed net long and small speculators are maxed net short. Use a daily chart with your favorite indicator/candlestick pattern to look for entry - be patient - don't forget a stop. See below for explanations of what you're looking at and what I'm talking about with COT
RISKS: The trend is down which makes this counter-trend trade
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
Market Range - What are they trying to tell us?When the market range, it is telling us they are lost with the main direction. And we are seeing that between all the US major stock indices and many stocks since the second week of May. Prices basically still trading around the same price since then.
In today’s tutorial, we will discuss:
• How to identify when market started to enter into a range and
• Which direction will it ultimately break away from a range market?
The concept of “Less is More”
When we trade into a contract that is within our means, we will be able to focus on trade set-up that is so helpful for entry, stop loss and profit taking than trying to manage our emotions as we have over traded.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Not Cheap YetSome people say that things are getting cheap. I agree, they are in the process of getting cheap, but we're not quite there yet as far as historical bottoms go. The Russell isn't that cheap yet, still twice as expensive as in 2009. Unless a true miracle happens, it's hard to see any upside in this market as far as real wealth terms(as opposed to numerical price increase) in the near future. On the contrary, we have seen much further downsides in the past. We might see a reflexive bounce in the future and a bear market rally, though we are in a steep downward momentum.
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!