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May 17 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: A simplified analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Monday High; Tuesday Spike, Wednesday LVNode; Thursday Low; Friday Value; Composite Profile; Balance. Technical: There is no clear direction in the market. Nasdaq relatively strong. Russell, Dow, and NYSE are weaker. On Monday, we made it into the $2950 zone of resting liquidity, prior to putting in a weak double top. Tuesday left value behind, liquidating and closing on the lows, which pointed to a continuation lower. Wednesday and Thursday accepted the spike and built a base above the $2760 resting liquidity. Thursday and Friday’s up-action was weak, relative to the earlier selling, and left value overlapping, in balance. With these past developments in mind, the market has been coming into balance over the past few weeks, digesting information, building value, shaking out weak hands. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out Thursday’s low of $2760.25, my immediate targets on the downside include $2730 and $2630. Upside targets include $2910 and $2950. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: Earnings; Housing Starts; Existing-Home Sales, Housing Market Index, FOMC Minutes; Initial Claims. Detailed look at April job losses. bit.ly Georgia’s early reopen has not resulted in a surge of hospitalizations or death. bloom.bg NYSE to reopen trading floor, dampen intraday volatility. on.wsj.com Demand shock to take the upper hand over supply shock, depressing inflation pressures. bit.ly May to join March and April as best months for investment-grade bond issuance. bit.ly Telemedicine popularity means growth for prescription delivery. bit.ly Money managers expect Trump to retake White House in November. bit.ly Slump in aviation hit $GE harder than other suppliers. bloom.bg Canada to extend wage subsidies. reut.rs High-growth companies target America’s heartland. bit.ly Puerto Rico’s economy to benefit if pharma returns. bit.ly High technology North America’s biggest corporate borrower. bit.ly Auto sales are resilient despite coronavirus. bit.ly Low cost, laid-back lifestyle has tech flocking to Texas. bit.ly $FCAU in talks over $6.8B state-guaranteed loan. reut.rs $UBER, $GRUB eye merger. bit.ly Consumer confidence signals cognitive dissonance. bit.ly Fitch expects record downgrades in 2020. bit.ly More than one-third of the workforce was damaged by the crisis. bit.ly Oil market pricing in tighter supplies due to production cuts, rising demand. reut.rs Recovering oil demand could drive the market into deficit by July. reut.rs $FDX CEO more optimistic than most on industrial rebound. bloom.bg Full Saudi Arabian tankers steam towards the oversupplied United States. bloom.bg Though overall economic well-being improved, financial well-being widened. bit.ly $ABBV closes Allergan acquisition, increasing leverage. bit.ly Columbia’s higher fiscal deficit limit points to fiscal deterioration. bit.ly Sentiment: 23.3% Bullish, 26.1% Neutral, 50.6% Bearish as of 5/16/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 951, 835, 268 as of 5/16/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 48.4% as of 5/16/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: ES: TVC:SPX , AMEX:SPY NQ: TVC:NDX , NASDAQ:QQQ RTY: TVC:RUT , AMEX:IWM YM: TVC:DJI , AMEX:DIA NYA: TVC:NYA GC: AMEX:GLD CL: AMEX:USO , AMEX:DBO , AMEX:USL NG: AMEX:UNG ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Elliott Wave View:Russell 2000 (RTY) Reaching Short Term SupportAs a larger context, the rally in Russell 2000 (RTY) from 3.19.2020 low took the form of an impulsive structure. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 1180.3 and wave (2) pullback ended at 1029.7. Index then resumed higher in wave (3) and ended at 1265.6 and wave (4) pullback ended at 1148.5. The final leg wave (5) ended at 1374. This move also completed wave ((1)) in higher degree and ended cycle from 3.19.2020 low. Wave ((2)) pullback is in progress to correct cycle from 3.19.2020 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the Index turns higher again. The 1 hour chart below shows the correction in wave ((2)). The internal subdivision is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((1)) high at 1374, wave (A) ended at 1220.1 as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave 1 of (A) ended at 1353.6, wave 2 of (A) ended at 1370.60, wave 3 of (A) ended at 1236.5, wave 4 of (A) ended at 1258.80, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 1220.10. Up from there, wave (B) bounce ended at 1341.6 as a zigzag in lesser degree. Wave A of (B) ended at 1303.7, wave B of (B) ended at 1245.6, and wave C of (B) ended at 1341.70. Wave (C) is now in progress as 5 waves impulse and can see more downside to reach 1150 - 1187 area. This is the 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of (A)-(B). From this area, Index may see buyers for more upside or 3 waves bounce at least.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Elliott Wave View: Pullback in Russell Should See SupportShort term Elliott wave view in Russell (RTY_F) suggests the Index ended the correction from January 17, 2020 high in wave (4) at 1609.56. It has since resumed higher in wave (5) and the internal subdivision is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure, The Index still needs to break above wave (3) at 1715.1 to avoid a double correction in wave (4). However, other US Indices such as YM_F (Dow Jones Futures), ES_F (S&P Futures), and NQ_F (Nasdaq) have broken above the previous peak, supporting more upside in Russell as well. Up from February 1 or wave (4) low, wave ((i)) ended at 1629.8 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 1619.80. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) towards 1678.8 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 1665.90. Index resumes the final leg higher in wave ((v)) towards 1695.20. The 5 waves move higher completed wave 1. Index is now within wave 2 pullback to correct cycle from February 1, 2020 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 1609.56 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Russell Impulsive Rally In ProgressRussell 2000 (RTY_F) shows a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure from August 26, 2019 low. In the 45 minutes chart below, we can see wave (4) of the impulse structure ended at 1627.3. The Index has resumed higher in wave 5 with subdivision of another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from 1627.3, wave ((i)) ended at 1676.6 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 1652. Wave ((iii)) of 5 now remains in progress and shows an extension. Up from 1652, wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 1691.2 and pullback in wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 1676.41. Near term, while dips remain above 1676.41, expect the Index to continue higher. Possible target of wave ((iii)) is 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)) which comes at 1732.04. Afterwards, Index should pullback in wave ((iv)) and then extend higher again in wave ((v)) of 5 before ending cycle from August 26, 2019 low. We don’t like selling the Index and expect short term dips to continue finding support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against 1676.41 pivot low in the first degree and against January 8, 2020 low (1627.3) in second degree.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
3 Possible Outcomes for S&P 500 futures by ThinkingAntsOkToday we are going to explain the 3 different scenarios we have for E-MINI S&P 500 futures First, let's analyze the Daily chart. Main Items we can see there: a)Price is inside an Expanding Triangle, this type of structures are considered continuation patterns after the 5 waves inside are complete, now we have A/B/C/D and E is remaining, so by Elliott Wave Theory we should expect a Bearish Movement, towards the lower trendline of this structure b)Price is against the 2 previous historical maximums, This zone is a major Supply zone, if price cant surpass this area, we would have a Triple Top pattern (Reversal Structure) c)On MACD we can see a Bearish Divergence on the previous Higher Highs, that's show weakness of the current bullish movement. Now let's take a look to the Global Context , Since 1st of May E-MINI S&P 500 futures developed a bearish movement, and one of the main reasons that trigger this -7% was the trade war with China, regarding that topic, nothing changed at all, all the opposite, the United States escalated the conflict by applying tariffs to China, and take really aggressive actions over Huawei. However, now we observe a full recovery of price with a situation that is far from finished. and is really difficult to explain this optimism on the market, based on the current global situation. On Wednesday China and the USA will proceed with trade talks on Japan G-20. We think that the final output of that meeting will have some repercussion on the Index, Bullish or Bearish. Weekly Chart: With all the previous Items already explained, let's see the 3 possible scenarios: 1)Price cant surpass the current Triple top pattern, and the beginning of a bearish movement starts again with similar behavior of the previous Down movements observed on FEBRUARY 2018 / OCTOBER 2018 / MAY 2019 2)Price keeps rising until finds resistance on the higher trendline of the Expanding triangle after that D wave of Elliott Wave theory is completed and a bearish movement starts again with the same characteristic of FEBRUARY 2018 / OCTOBER 2018 / MAY 2019 3)Price surpass the higher trendline of the expanding triangle and find resistance on the weekly ascending channel ( you can see it better on the previous image) if this scenario happens, the Idea of the Expanding Triangle will be discarded and now price can make a correction over there or even surpass it, However we think that this scenario is the most unlikely because that would mean that 3 Major resistances zones have been broken without correction, and using Technical Analysis us our forecast tool, that would be an extremely rare behavior.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ThinkingAntsOk
Elliott Wave View: Russell Should Extend LowerElliott Wave sequence in Russell (RTY_F) from May 6, 2019 high (1621.9) appears incomplete favoring further downside. The bounce to 1571.5 in the Index ended wave X. Index has extended lower in wave Y and broken below the previous low on May 14 low (1516.7). This suggests the next leg lower has started. The internal of wave Y is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1571.5, wave ((w)) ended at 1492.9 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave (a) ended at 1522.1, wave (b) ended at 1548.9, and wave (c) ended at 1492.9. Wave ((x)) bounce is now complete at 1523.90 peak while below there should extend lower. We don’t like buying the Index, and as far as pivot at May 16 high (1571.44) stays intact, expect Index to move lower. Potential target to the downside is 1441.85 – 1466.32 area where cycle from May 6, 2019 peak reaches 100% extension.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Russell 2000: No man's land at the moment.RUT is practically neutral at the moment as the 1D Channel Down (RSI = 46.549, Highs/Lows = -4.0275, B/BP = -30.2779) keeps the index bearish while 1W (excluding the early Dec - late Jan extreme) supports it (RSI= 49.965, Highs/Lows = 12.4371) from a greater fall. So far Russell is a no-action asset but we are willing to go long on the upward break-out of the 1D Channel Down. TP = 1,600 and 1,620 in extension. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TVC:RUT
by InvestingScope
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) Sends Out Bearish Signal, Crash...The Russell 2000 Index, which tends to move before the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has broken below support with strength. On the chart above we can see that the RUT broke through EMA50 and EMA100 like hot butter. This can lead to a retrace as far down as 0.618 Fib. just to start, it can go lower. The MACD is entering the bearish zone with plenty of room left for more down. The RSI is also looking extremely bearish. If this index is an indication of how the conventional markets will move then prepare for some strong bearish action in the weeks ahead. This quick analysis is shared as a follow up to my SPX analysis here: This is just a friendly reminder. Thanks a lot for reading and your continued support. Remember to hit like. Namaste.
TVC:RUTShort
by MasterAnanda
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) Sends Out Bearish Signal, Crash...The Russell 2000 Index, which tends to move before the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has broken below support with strength. On the chart above we can see that the RUT broke through EMA50 and EMA100 like hot butter. This can lead to a retrace as far down as 0.618 Fib. just to start, it can go lower. The MACD is entering the bearish zone with plenty of room left for more down. The RSI is also looking extremely bearish. If this index is an indication of how the conventional markets will move then prepare for some strong bearish action in the weeks ahead. This quick analysis is shared as a follow up to my SPX analysis here: This is just a friendly reminder. Thanks a lot for reading and your continued support. Remember to hit like. Namaste.
TVC:RUTShort
by MasterAnanda
Russell leading the consolidation pack?A quick update on the count for those following the index. Nasdaq, S&P and Dow all starting to see some decent profit taking as we enter into resistance again. Here watching the Russell as there's a good chance the market has completed a 5 wave impulse move from the 16 lows. The correction if the above assumption is right, means that this ABC retracement may have completed after we touched 1300 and we are now entering into a multi-month consolidation period. This will be a wide range, however, with plenty of opportunities on both sides of the pig. Thanks all
TVC:RUT
by ridethepig