$IWM is set for a Blow-Off Top - 34% UpsdieAMEX:IWM is about to have a blow-off top moment!
Catch up mode engaged...
- Breakout of downward trend
- Volume shelf launch
- Rate cuts inbound
- Suppressed for 4 years
PTs: $244/ 259/ 276 (MM)
Russell2000
Russell2000 bullish breakout supported at 2167Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 2225
Resistance Level 2: 2240
Resistance Level 3: 2255
Support Level 1: 2167
Support Level 2: 2150
Support Level 3: 2134
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Russell 2000 H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportThe Russell 2000 (US2000) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 2,163.07 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 2,130.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 2,215.08 which is an overlap resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
"US2000 Technical Play: Long Entry at Key Support"RUSSELL 2000 BULLISH BREAKOUT STRATEGY
*(High-Probability Swing Trade Setup on RUT/US2000)*
TRADE EXECUTION PLAN
ENTRY STRATEGY
Preferred Entry: Wait for pullback to 2170 support zone (15M/30M charts)
Confirmation Entry: Valid breakout above 2170 resistance (1H closing basis)
Order Placement: Use limit orders near support or stop orders above resistance
RISK PROTOCOLS
Stop Loss Placement: 2130 (swing low on 3H/4H timeframe)
Position Sizing: Maximum 1-3% risk per trade
Key Reminder: Strict risk management is essential for long-term success
PROFIT TARGETS
Primary Objective: 2230 resistance level
Alternative Approach: Trail stop loss if momentum weakens prematurely
Scalping Note: Focus exclusively on long-side opportunities in current market conditions
MARKET ANALYSIS
Technical Factors: Emerging higher low pattern, strengthening momentum
Fundamental Drivers: Supportive environment for small-cap equities
Sentiment Indicators: Retail positioning suggests room for upside
IMPORTANT WARNING
News Event Protocol: Avoid trading during high-impact announcements
Position Management: Adjust stops accordingly during volatile periods
Trading Discipline: No new entries when major news is pending
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NOTE
This swing trade requires patience and discipline. Wait for proper confirmation signals before execution and maintain strict risk parameters throughout the trade duration.
ENGAGEMENT REQUEST
If you find this analysis valuable, please like and follow for more trade ideas. Share your perspective in the comments section.
(Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk.)
NEXT MARKET ANALYSIS COMING SOON
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day.
The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar.
There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here.
I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern.
I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see.
I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty.
Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms.
Wishing everyone peace and prosperity!
Tim West
11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
Mr. Rusell (Small Cap index) & Altseason go hand in hand. That's right it does.
Why?
Because small businesses employ nearly half of the workforce of the United States.
So when financial conditions exist for confidence to grow at this level of the economy expressed via hiring and expansion of said businesses the ripple effects are huge.
Which can be seen during Altcoin boom's (banana zones)
This cycle especially as one whole Bitcoin is out of reach for the common man. When Retail hot money does return to crypto expect small cap low numerical valued coins to really start outperforming BTC
Russell2000 Key Trading LevelsKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 2180
Resistance Level 2: 2195
Resistance Level 3: 2220
Support Level 1: 2110
Support Level 2: 2095
Support Level 3: 2080
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Russell2000 key trading levelsKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 2170
Resistance Level 2: 2195
Resistance Level 3: 2242
Support Level 1: 2074
Support Level 2: 2050
Support Level 3: 2000
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
$SSP Low volume on Wave 2, momentum risingFirstly, on the line chart is possible to watch the possible targets - blue lines - which one of it is almost as the same level as 2,618.
Fibonacci measured from the breakout to monthly resistance.
res M = monthly resistance
During the Wave 2, the two candles from last two days showed low volume as usual to happen during formation of W2, and it is possible to see that price at the breakout and after it was above average which can be read as high interest from buyers.
Confirming the volume, the EFI even though is decreasing still show strength,OBV follow the price trend but looks like buyers are entering again.
When it comes to momentum is possible to see that RSI did not crossed the equilibrium even after two bearish days, as ROC being a leading indicator which already changed direction . ADX is showing some strength for the trend direction confirmed by as DMI+ is still above DMI-
DTC = 1,36
Russell 2000 H1 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibo retracementThe Russell 2000 (US2000) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 2,112.73 which is a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements.
Stop loss is at 2,135.00 which is a level that sits above the 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 2,071.60 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Russell INTRADAY Key Trading levelsKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 2196
Resistance Level 2: 2230
Resistance Level 3: 2260
Support Level 1: 2070
Support Level 2: 2040
Support Level 3: 2010
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
LIGHTBRIDGE BREAKING out from a DOUBLE BOTTOMDYOR on the fundamentals.
This idea share is solely based on the chart.
Which exhibits a beautiful double bottom breakout.
RUSSELL: Short term consolidation before ATH test.Russell is technically neutral on its 1D outlook (RSI = 55.323, MACD = 20.400, ADX = 20.042) as for the whole month of May it is trading sideways inside the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. April's bottom and the subsequent RSI DB rebound, is very much like the October 27th 2023 bottom. The rebound that was followed, also had the index consolidate between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and soon after it resumed the uptrend to cross above the R1 level (prior High) before pulling back to the 1D MA50 again. Based on that we remain bullish on Russell, aiming for the R1 (TP = 2,470).
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Russell 2000 INTRADAY bullish consolidation supported at 1970Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 2133
Resistance Level 2: 2175
Resistance Level 3: 2240
Support Level 1: 1970
Support Level 2: 1910
Support Level 3: 1840
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US2000 / RUSSELL2000 Index Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the US2000 / RUSSELL2000 Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red zone area. It's a Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (1960) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊."
📍 Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing low level Using the 2H timeframe (1840) Day / Swing trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 2100 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💰💵💸US2000 / RUSSELL2000 Index Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bullish trend.., driven by several key factors.☝☝☝
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
"US2000/Russel" Index Market Bullish Robbery (Swing Trade Plan)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US2000 / Russel 2000" Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk ATR Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 3H timeframe (1888.0) Day/Swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 2111.0 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💰💵💸"US2000 / Russel 2000" Index Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰🗞️🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
US2000 Indices Heist: Steal the Market’s Hidden Profits! **🚨 Attention, market bandits & profit thieves!** 🏴☠️💸
The **US2000 Indices** are ripe for the taking—here’s your **Thief Trading Plan** to loot the charts like a pro! 🕵️♂️📉📈
This strategy blends **killer technicals** with **smart fundamentals** to lock in gains. Ride the bullish wave 🚀 but stay alert—the **Red Zone** is where overbought traps lurk, and bears might ambush! 🐻 Secure your profits before the market turns!
---
**🔑 Entry Signals: Strike Like a Thief!**
- **Bullish Ambush (Long)**: Enter on pullbacks near **Pullback Zone 1 (2060.00)** or **Pullback Zone 2 (1980.00)**. 🎯
- **Bearish Blitz (Short)**: Jump in if price breaks **below 2040.00**—ride the drop! 📉
- **Set an alert!** 🔔 Catch breakouts in real-time.
---
**🛑 Stop Loss Tricks: Protect Your Loot!**
- **Buy Stops**: Confirm breakout first! Place stops at **1980.00 (Zone 1)** or **1910.00 (Zone 2)**.
- **Adjust based on risk & lot size—stay sharp, not reckless!** ⚡
---
**🎯 Profit Targets: Cash Out & Celebrate!**
- **Bullish Thieves**: Aim for **2200.00** or exit early if momentum fades.
- **Bearish Raiders**: Target **1980.00** for quick steals.
- **Scalpers**: Stick to **long-side scalps**—big players swing, small traders trail stops!
---
**📜 Market Intel: Why This Heist Works!**
The **US2000** is surging bullish! 🐂 Fueled by **COT data, macro trends, sentiment shifts & intermarket flows**—check the links for deep dives! 🔍📊
---
**🚨 Trading Alert: News Can Wreck the Heist!**
- **Avoid new trades during news!** 📰
- **Use trailing stops** to lock profits on open trades. 🔐
---
**🔥 Support the Heist—Hit Boost & Join the Profit Gang!**
With **Thief Trading**, every day’s a new robbery opportunity. Stay alert for the next big steal! 🤑💨
**See you in the markets, bandits!** 🤝🎭
Russell 2000 H4 | Rising into an overlap resistanceRussell 2000 (US2000) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 2,133.07 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 2,200.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 2,033.68 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
RUSSELL 15-year Cyclical pattern calls for enormous growth.Russell 2000 (RUT) made a massive rebound on last month's candle on the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), closing above it and maintaining the long-term price action above this Support since the March 2020 COVID crash.
Practically that was the only time the 1M MA100 broke since the October 11 recovery, which was the start of a 15-year Cyclical Pattern that initiates Bull Cycles after 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) ad then 1M MA100 rebounds that peak on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
Last month's rebound sets the stage for a post-COVID type recovery, especially if the Fed cuts the Interest Rates on their next meeting. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension is a little bit over 3500, which is our long-term Target.
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Russell 2000: Looking Past the Short-term VolatilityCME: Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 Index Futures ( CME_MINI:M2K1! )
On Saturday, May 3rd, Warren Buffett took the center stage of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. “What has happened in the last 30, 45 days … is really nothing,” declared the “Oracle of Omaha”.
Buffett brushed off recent stock market volatility that has rattled investors over the past weeks. “This has not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort,” he said.
In April, U.S. stock market took a deep dive after the start of Reciprocal Tariff against all U.S. trading partners. A few days later, we witnessed spectacular rally with a record daily gain, as a 90-day tariff pause was announced. On May 2nd, the S&P 500 completed a 9-day winning streak, the longest in 20 years.
After a month-long rollercoaster ride, the U.S. stock market is back to where it started. If an investor bought stocks in the beginning of April and then slept for the whole month, he wakes up today and may not even notice any changes in his portfolio.
Sunny Days ahead after the Storm
I concur with Buffet’s assessment that the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong. The supply chain disruptions are painful and will lead to product shortage, higher prices and layoffs in affected industries. However, trade conflicts will be resolved in a few months. The U.S. will be in a strengthening position, making its economy more sustainable.
The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 2025, the first negative reading since 2022, according to the Commerce Department. However, the underlying data is much better if you look past the headline.
The formula: GDP = C + I + G + (X - M), where:
• C is consumer spending; I is investment by private business
• G is government spending; (X-M) is the net of exports minus imports
The key driver of the negative GDP is Imports. US buyers front-run the tariffs with massive orders, resulting in a 41.3% increase in imports. We also see a 21.9% gain in investment, primarily the result of US businesses building up inventory with imported goods.
• Imports and Investment contribute -4.83% and +3.6% to Q1 GDP, respectively. Both are one-time events and should not be taken as a long-term trend.
• Consumer spending grew 1.8% in Q1, contributing to 1.21% of GDP. Government spending contracted 1.4% in Q1, contributing to -0.25% of GDP.
Real Story: Q1 constant dollar GDP is +3.5%. By using a price deflator of 3.7%, the government reports a -0.3% “Real GDP at seasonally adjusted annual rates.”
Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, beating market expectations. The April unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations.
The above data supports my assessment of a solid U.S. economy. Once we walk past the tariff fear, the stock market will likely resume its growth.
Small Firms May Benefit More from New Trade Policies
A global supply chain helps corporate giants source from the most efficient and lowest cost suppliers. Small businesses may not be so lucky. Take the US textile industry as an example, the BLS data shows that 80% of domestic jobs have been lost since 2000.
The "de minimis" exemption is an import loophole that allows overseas packages under $800 to come into the U.S. duty-free. According to BLS data, e-commerce giants like Amazon, Shein and Temu source 80-90% of their products from overseas.
Closing the "de minimis" loophole and enacting fairer trade deals will help domestic manufacturers. By shielding from low-cost import dumping, a revitalized US manufacturing industry may not be far fetching.
Of the four major US market index, Russell 2000 performed the worst, flat in the last twelve months. Based on my analysis above, the Small Cap Russell index may have a better growth outlook compared to blue-chip indices.
Trade Setup with CME Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 Index Futures
Traders who take a bullish view in Small Cap could buy the Micro Russell Futures (M2K).
M2K contracts have a notional value of $5 times the index value. With Friday settlement price of $2042.70, each September contract (M2KU5) has a notional value of $10,213.5. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $932 at the time of writing.
The reason for selecting the September contract rather than the more liquid June contract is the time it takes to negotiate trade deals. While some trading partners may reach agreement within the 90-day window, others may not.
Micro Russell futures (M2K, $5) contracts tap into the deep liquidity of E-Mini Russell futures contracts (RTY, $50). As of last Friday, RTY has an open interest (OI) of 457,283 contracts, while the OI for M2K is 41,563, according to data from CME Group.
The risk of long Russell futures is a decline in the index. To hedge against the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss in his buy order.
Hypothetically, a trader enters a buy order of M2KU5 at $2050 with a stoploss at $1950.
• If the Russell goes up 10% to 2,255, the trade will gain $1,025 (= (2255-2050) * 5). The theoretical return is 110% (= 1025/932). This is 10 times bigger than the gain in the underlying index, thanks to the leverage built into the futures contracts
• If the Russell falls 10% to 1,845, the maximum loss with be $500 (= (2050-1950) * 5). This is less than the initial margin of $932 and the trader will not face a margin call. The loss is limited even if your view is incorrect, thanks to the stoploss feature
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
$RUSSELL in a bounce back mode. But upside is capped @ 2400 IG:RUSSELL 2000 after failing from the highs of 2400 on Dec 2024 which it revisited after 2 years the index made a low of 1700 in April which was the lows of this major cup and handle formation pattern the index has been doing for the last 2 year. We discussed this Cup and a probable handle forming in this blog space for the index IG:RUSSELL a couple of times. As the index is completing its lows of the handle formation in April and off of its lows, we can expect some major move to the upside in this relief rally for $RUSSELL. On the weekly RSI the index touched 20 which marked a multi-year over sold positioning in the index itself.
But the question is where does the index go from here ? The fundamental analysis of the Cup and handle pattern will tell us that the index must touch the top of the pattern first where the future direction will be decided. In the medium term the index must touch 2400 again before we can make a long term bullish or bearish call. For now, the upside of this handle pattern will continue.
Verdict: IG:RUSSELL can touch 2400 before facing major resistance
Russell2000 rising wedge in downtrend?Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1980
Resistance Level 2: 2039
Resistance Level 3: 2076
Support Level 1: 1850
Support Level 2: 1813
Support Level 3: 1785
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RUSSEL / IWM IDEAovernight bounce off 15m demand im sized im very lightly due to it being an over night trade (I have a high loosing percentage trading Asia Session.) Simple play if volatility can kick in towards London/NY session. No PT if this starts working, I will just let it run until 5m structure is broken.
