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Russell2000

Who Blinks First? 19 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities ended slightly higher at the lower end of today's trading range. It was another one of those days that meant little by itself yet a story is unfolding within the context of a string of these days. ➤ When prices leapt higher from the March low, we saw the aggressive acceleration with large-sized daily moves and price gaps from day to day. A sign of excitement and enthusiasm. In recent days, we see the complete contrast with hesitative small daily moves creeping higher each day. ➤ With my best "tape" reading glasses on, I still cannot decipher which binary outcome it will be: Re-acceleration upwards explained by an upward accumulation phase or a Bearish trend reversal explained by the tiring progress into key resistance levels. Only one outcome can be true. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Who will blink first? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Price Projections, 18 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished in a robust manner at the highs although it was a low volatility day. It looks like the price is digesting the break out of the short-term consolidation prior to jumping higher. The question is how much higher? ➤ I studied the Wyckoff Method some years ago under the teachings of well-known proponents Roman Bogomazov and Bruce Fraser at Wyckoff Analytics. Although I only apply some minor elements of Wyckoff philosophy in my trading strategy, it was a transformative educational experience that opened my mind to the inner workings of the market. ➤ The reason why I bring up Wyckoff is that the methodology does incorporate a price projection element using the "point & figure" chart. This chart is "old school" in that is was predominantly used by Traders in the physical trading pits at exchanges. It simplifies a messy chart by displaying price action in terms of movement rather by chronological time. ➤ So let's play around with the price projection. I used the Dec 2022 consolidation to calibrate the inputs and it gave me a price of 411.5 for the SPY. This is the projection from the Mar 2023 low. Obviously we have already met that target. In the Dec example, the price did spike a few points higher than the projection prior to actual price reversal in Feb 2023. We should apply the same leeway. Coincidentally that would allow the price to peak around 415-418 near the Feb 2023 high - an obvious point for a reversal. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Let's see if the price is about to peak as suggested. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The VIX Collapse, 17 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ On Friday the S&P500 held above short-term support on top of the trading range although it did give up earlier gains. That is not unsurprising as I did expect the support to be tested. The major feature was the collapse of the VIX to relatively low levels. My "A Regime Shift" post (linked) delves into what this may mean. ➤ A quick round up of other markets is warranted as we are sitting at interesting levels in many instances in their respective timeframes: ⦿ USD (daily): New low set, testing the breakdown. A successful test should see further weakening ⦿ TLT (weekly): Range bound. The bounce off the low looks corrective, the long-term downtrend is favoured ⦿ GOLD (daily): Choppy 2 steps up 1 step down but the uptrend is firmly entranched. I expect all time highs. ⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Testing resistance level. Unsuccessful so far. I expect further weakness if the test fails ⦿ OIL (3-day): Another week of gains would strengthen the bullish case with a Change of Behaviour, the first step for a true trend change ⦿ BTC (weekly): Testing long-term resistance. We may see some profit taking but the new bull trend is firmly in place. ➤ I have reduced my long equity positioning to minimum sizing to reflect a lower conviction on the short-term price movement. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Big flood of earnings should provide insight into further market direction. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Break Through, 14 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday I said narrow price ranges don't last long. It lasted a day more than I had hoped for but today we saw the break through. S&P500 broke above the short-term trading range. Not only that, it also broke an assortment of resistance levels. ➤ Before we get carried away, we should note that there is usually a test of the support level (previously resistance levels). The test may fail and price reverses back into the range. When that happens, it is likely the price will keep moving down to at least the bottom of that range. ➤ 418.31 on the SPY is the upside level that I am looking at. A break through that level would be very meaningful indeed. Especially if price can hold above it at month end. Why at month end? In my view, a monthly close above that high will change my overall long-term Bearish stance to Bullish. ➤ I hold a moderate long position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Look up. Short-term equity trend has been upgraded. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Treading Water, 13 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities failed to take advantage of the early bullish mood. Prices ended weakly for a solid down day. ➤ Yesterday I talked about the current state of the market and it being in a short-term consolidation phase. This is a situation where prices move up and down within a range treading water prior to breaking out higher or lower. Allowing for a new trend to emerge. Typically, the longer the consolidation phase the longer the subsequent trending phase. It's like a coiled spring releasing all its pent up energy. ➤ Today we saw the price fail to break above and continue to tread water. It is a delicate balance because the consolidation has a narrow range (high to low). Narrow ranges don't usually last very long. ➤ I've cut half of my long position in response to the further coiling of price. Short-term direction bias gets more cloudy the longer this goes on. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Tread lightly. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Nothing Day, 12 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A dull Tuesday for equities. There was nothing in the price action of importance. All eyes on Wednesday inflation day. ➤ Yesterday, a reader made the same comment about the low volume Easter Monday trade. I pretty much agree with that statement. Individually, each trading day may in itself have no particular bearing but together with other days there can be meaning. ➤ A very simple example: say today was a bullish day. If the next day is also bullish what do we think about the chances of the following day being bullish too? Statistically, it is slightly better than 50%. A string of bullish days builds momentum and it turns into a trend. ➤ Let's look at this in the context of the current market condition. The S&P500 has been trading sideways in a tight range. What does this mean? It is not in a trend, it is in a short-term consolidation. A break up or down out of the consolidation is the beginning of a trend. Which way will it break? I'm favouring the upside as reflected in my buy position. However, it could also keep moving sideways or down. With the latter two scenarios I would most likely fail on my hunt and realise a loss. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Nothing will turn into something. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
A Round Trip, 11 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities recovered (again) from an ugly start on Easter Monday. While half of the world were still on holidays, equities gradually fell prior to US market open only for the Bulls to come in to support the price at the critical levels. By the end of days' trade, the S&P500 made a round trip back to where it settled prior to the holidays. ➤ So what was all that price action about? Perhaps it is the jittery signs of the earning seasons proper and inflation data on Wednesday. It could be action to shake out the weak hands on the long and short side. Firstly, a drop to weed out the weak Bull and second to sucker in the Bears only to smack them in the face. Overall, the price action wasn't all that meaningful other than to point out that there is strong Bullish support at these levels. We shall see very shortly if this continues to hold true. ➤ I'm currently long with maximum position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 I've pounced on my prey. Will I succeed or fail on this hunt? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
small cap setupBuy: 1768 or lower Stop: 1751 Notes: maybe small caps get close some of the wide performance gap so far this year The model: The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell. On winning trades after 1 day take at least ⅓ of the position off and move stop to breakeven
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by IngenuityTrading
Prey in Sight, 6 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 has found it's footing once again at the minor support level at the 6 March high after threatening to fall off the edge. It was a clear case of risk-off mode today with DJIA blue chips supported and NASDAQ, RUSSELL 2000 sold-off. Still, there wasn't really much damage done to the bullish narrative. ➤ A lot is happening in other asset classes. Gold has broken out big time, USD is threatening weaken to new lows, Oil rebounded aggressively and NATGAS continues to fall apart. All this you can see in my previous posts. Oh yes, don't forget about bond prices too. I should take a good look at the charts there too. With all this commotion, equities is relatively calm. It probably won't be that way for long. ➤ With the current price action, I'm getting a clearer picture. I have the prey in my sight. Now I just need to find the right timing to pounce. ➤ Conclusion: Hunt is on. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
Close Call, 5 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities reversed course on Tuesday trade, however two aspects remain unchanged: 1) Nasdaq outperformed Russell 2000 2) Late buying into the close. ➤ Without that late buying, I would have taken a small short position to test out the waters, jumping straight back into the action. It was a close call. As it is, I will have wait to see how tomorrow's price action unfolds. The price action will dictate the potential directional trade I will take. Although a short position is favoured, it could also just as easily trigger a buy/long position too! Price could remain ambiguous in which case I take no action. ➤ We should note that the price bounced off the 6th March high that acted as minor support and it is trapped above by the resistance zone as labelled in my chart. Ideally I would like the price to break free from this area. That would remove some if not all of the ambiguity. ➤ Conclusion: Hunt is on.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Head & Shoulders, 4 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities continued their advance although it was the DJIA large caps that led the way. We haven't seen that for a while. ➤ S&P500 has hit the first resistance zone. I also got the exit signal to my long position. I guess that's a pretty good place to part from a solid profitable trade. ➤ If we observe some chart patterns, noticeably people have been calling out the head and shoulders formation for a bearish outlook. The right shoulder is being formed. This will be easily discounted if prices moves above the head (2nd Feb high). One could also argue we are in the midst of a bullish double bottom formation with the Dec 2022 and March lows being the bottoms. That will be affirmed also with a move above Feb 2. ➤ Conclusion: I don't rely on chart formations as they are a bit of a hit and miss but it's always beautiful to see one work out. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Neutral, 3 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The mid-March march in equities has neutralised the short-term down-trend. A higher high as been set. To move from neutral to an uptrend we need to see a subsequent higher low. That potential higher low could come swiftly. ➤ S&P500 is at key levels with 410 and 417 acting as resistance on the SPY. A correction in the price should close the unfilled price gaps at 404 and 397. The latter target is where the 200-day moving average hovers. ➤ We should also expect some profit-taking especially in the mega cap tech names after a massive near +18.6% quarter gain in the Nasdaq. This too will help to fulfill the above scenario. ➤ Conclusion: I remain positioned long with a moderately-sized position. Just waiting for an exit signal. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
IWM Russell 2000 RUT affected by the SIVB collapse! Puts to buy!After the last RUT Russell 2000 Price Target was Perfectly reached: Now you need to know that many of the Russell 2K companies will be impacted by the SIVB collapse. Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB , potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors. Silicon Valley Bank did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies. With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits. IWM puts considering buying: 2023-4-21 expiration date $169 Strike Price $3.65 Premium Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:IWMShort
by TopgOptions
2
Room for MOAR? 31 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Once again equities gapped higher. Depsite some "gap filling" action, price recovered to finish some distance from the lows. All is not equal of course, Nasdaq still leads the way and Russell2000 small cap woefully lagging. Long big tech and and short the weaker small caps would have been a wonderful trade. ➤ So is there MOAR upside to come? From a technical standpoint, yes, perhaps a bit more. Immediate resistance at 405 on the SPY followed by 410 and 417 areas. It will require VIX to remain low for the higher targets to be achieved. That is certainly plausible. Note that a print above 407.45 (6th March high) would void the short-term down trend due to a higher high. ➤ Keep in mind the sizable lower price gap that is unfilled from Wednesday trade. ➤ Conclusion: Still holding on to my moderate long position. An exit shouldn't be too far away especially if there is a sizable down turn in price. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The 400, 30 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities shot up higher with you guessed it...Nasdaq leading the way. If investors did not have a large tech allocation, they have been left way way behind at least so far this year. ➤ S&P500 is up 5% YTD but is now back trafficking at the 400 level. This has been the recent "zero" line from where prices oscillate up and down 5% on either side. With VIX now collapsing to low levels, the up move since the 14th March low may be limited. This is especially true as we are in a range-bound market regime. ➤ Given the above, I took off half of my long position leaving a moderate sized exposure. In this environment, whenever price hits resistance or support, there is a chance the price can reverse rather aggressively. ➤ Note the sizable price gap due to today's jump at the open in the SPY. In recent times, all these gaps have been filled either immediately or shortly in the future. I don't see this gap being any different. ➤ Conclusion: A decent profit so far making up for lost time due to the sporadic trading action this month. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Flipper, 29 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another low volatility day. Equity prices recovered to finish where it started the day. For me it meant flipping my short position to being long/buy. ➤ "The Flipper" in Cricket is a bowling action made famous by the legend leg spinner Shane Warne...may he rest in peace. It's a normal looking spinning delivery but actually just skids on straight with extra pace. It often leads to the Batters' demise as he/she is completely fooled. ➤ In a way, the recent price action in equities is like that. With all the fearmongering, banking crisis, etc etc...the market has hardly budged. What was lost was recovered. VIX also didn't shoot up aggressively and has completely collapsed once again. ➤ Will it continue? Is the market too complacent? You should know my answer to that...I really don't care all that much although it is interesting listening to all the arguments. ➤ I'm just trading the price action as I see it. If I'm right or wrong, make or lose money it certainly isn't because I thought about this macro factor or that. That's just not my skillset. ➤ Conclusion: A bit peeved at not being to realise a decent profit on the short...let's see what a maximum-sized long play will bring. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
A Short Stay, 28 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A low volatility start to the week. NASDAQ underperformed while Russell 2000 small cap caught a bid. Price could not push through the short-term resistance level above 400 on the SPY. VIX keeps moving lower. ➤ I'm finally back in the action with a moderate short position. It's going to be a short stay, 1 or 2 days perhaps. It was kind of an unfortunate start. Equity prices burst higher in the few seconds into the close just after the opening of my position. A little bit annoyed with that. ➤ Conclusion: Remember that we are in choppy conditions so I'm not expecting any major directional moves as yet. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Chop Chop, 25 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The week ended positively for equities with brisk late buying on Friday trade. The exact opposite of the late strong sell-off on Wednesday just on a smaller scale. That sell-off remains the dominant feature. ➤ With the exception of Tech and perhaps day trading, it was pretty choppy everywhere else for generating returns. Somewhat like being swirled around in the washing machine not knowing where we will end up. At this juncture, one could come to the conclusion that despite all the hoo-ha about impending disaster it was just pure fear mongering built up with social media...at least in the very short term. ➤ I'm not too upset to have been left out of the action this week. I think any trade would have been chopped up and spat out. I'm looking forward to next week as the price action is evolving into a structure that is recognisable. ➤ Conclusion: Let's hope we don't get the same choppy conditions next week. Have a great weekend! EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
I'm No Day Trader, 24 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm not a day trader but it's a perfect market environment to be one. Volatility is just at the right level where prices swing/trend but are constrained in a range. Today was a perfect example. ➤ Equity prices swung up and down and finished slightly positive. Once again NASDAQ outperformed and the regional bank heavy Russell 2000 small cap stocks lagged. There's also lots of money to be made by astute sector selection just like last year. Money can still be made by a long-only investor in a Bear market! ➤ Today's price action keeps the Bears in play. An attempt to reverse yesterday's plunge failed albeit no further ground was lost. This was helped by the 200 day moving average acting as a wall of resistance. The VIX acted a bit better to correspond with that bearish tone but still looks unconvincing. ➤ Conclusion: We are getting closer to a suitable trade set-up. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2