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Russell2000

Nasdaq’s past is a timely reminder.The Nasdaq 100 Index has had an incredible run, rewarding long-term investors with massive outperformance over the past 20 years. But as traders we want to position ourselves to benefit from short-term events as well. Look closer at the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, you’ll find a similar setup to today, just 22 years prior, where the Nasdaq was trading incredibly rich compared to the S&P 500 and the Russell. We can also look at the ratio of the Nasdaq vs its peers to understand on a relative basis, how expensive or cheap the index is trading. Currently, both ratios still trade close to the 2000s high, a critical level where the ratio topped out and then crashed in a dramatic fashion thereafter. From a timing perspective, the Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio took roughly 30 months to bottom out while the Nasdaq 100/Russell 2000 ratio took 27 months. With the current decline only 9 months young, we expect more pain for Nasdaq for quite a while longer. On a shorter timeframe, we see the 2 ratios near or at critical levels. The Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio seems to have completed a double top, broken the neckline, and then come back to retest the neckline before being clearly rejected. This allows us to be comfortably bearish on the ratio. As for the Nasdaq 100/Russell 2000, the ratio is currently trading close to a major support level, the break of which will likely send it tumbling down. To set up this trade, we could: - Short 1 Nasdaq 100 Futures contract (NQZ2 Index) - Long 1 S&P 500 Futures (ESZ2 Index) However, this trade has certain risks as the dollar value effect of a 1-point move in the Nasdaq 100 ($20) is different from a 1-point move in the S&P500 ($50). Therefore, another way to set up this spread trade would be to: - Short 5 Nasdaq 100 Futures contract (NQZ2 Index) - Long 2 S&P 500 Futures (ESZ2 Index) Where the dollar value of the position is equal whether the Nasdaq or S&P moves by 1 point. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is low. We think the Nasdaq’s past behavior might be back to haunt investors, hence we prefer to be on the short side, whether using the outright short or a spread to express our view. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
TVC:NDQShort
by inspirante
4
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Selling US2000Trade Idea: Selling US2000 Reasoning: Looking for selloff to extend - targeting 61.8% fib level Entry Level: 1989.0 Take Profit Level: 13512.0 Stop Loss: 1953.0 Risk/Reward: 2.77:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:US2000Short
by Signal_Centre
A Tale of Two Americas CME:LE1! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July non-farm payrolls on August 5th and July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on August 10th. Both reports beat market expectations. About 528,000 new jobs were created in July, well above June level. Annualized Inflation was lowered to 8.5% from the record 9.1% in June. While strong jobs data and taming inflation show the resilience of US economy, worrying signs are emerging. There are strikingly different faces of America: 1) People with jobs and those without; 2) Financially sound public companies and struggling small businesses; 3) Commodity prices that are under control, and those still flying high. July Non-farm Payrolls According to the Census Bureau, US population was 332 million in January 2022. Civilian Labor Force data reported by the BLS was 164 million in July, 49% of total population. It appears that the non-farm report shows us only half of the country. America: People with Jobs Total number of non-farm employees was 158 million in July. Of the half-million new jobs created, Leisure & Hospitality contributed to 96,000 (18%), while retail, wholesale, transportation, and warehousing together accounted for 42,000 (8%). Service-sector jobs tend to be low-pay, part-time and/or without benefits. Health care and Government created 70,000 (13%) and 57,000 (11%) new jobs, respectively. Since 2020, the Federal government has spent trillions to fight the pandemic and rescue the economy. These jobs were funded by budget, not by growing demand of a free market. Although American consumers continue to support the economy, low-income earners are struggling with rising costs of housing, food, transportation, and household necessity. America: People without Jobs Officially, the U.S. had 5.7 million unemployed persons in July. It is very misleading. According to the July report, “The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in July. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.” If we take both into consideration, the total number of unemployed people would be 11.6 million, with real unemployment rate at 6.8%. Additionally, more than half of the population is not included in the labor force, who count children, housewives, retirees, military members, adult students, and US citizens living abroad among them. People without jobs still have living expenses. They may be supported by working family members, government programs, or charities. They are the most vulnerable when the economy turns south. Retirees with fixed income are also being hit hard. With rising price, they sometimes must make the hard choice between food, medicine, and filling up the gas tank. Now, let’s turn our focus to American businesses. American Business: Public Companies From the pandemic triggered selloff in March 2020, the S&P 500 rebounded and doubled its value to 4800 last December. In 2022, the index was down 24% in the first six months. It has since recovered half the losses, down just 11% year-to-date as of August 10th. Based on data compiled by Liberated Stock Trader, these 500 publicly traded companies employed 28 million people worldwide. Walmart (WMT) is the biggest employer with a 2.3 million workforce. Amazon (AMZN) came in 2nd, with 1.3 million employees. On average, S&P component companies have 56,000 employees. With the ability to produce and distribute their products around the world, Big Businesses could withstand the impact of higher cost or adverse policy better than most companies. According to WSJ data, as of August 5th, the trailing 12-month Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) is 22.6 for S&P 500. Forward P/E is 18.2. Market expects S&P component companies to have lower earnings, but the impact of pending recession is not very significant. American Business: Private Companies Let’s start off by saying that I do not have comprehensive research on private businesses. Since most readers could only invest in the secondary market, we could use the Small-Cap Russell 2000 index as a proxy to mainstream American businesses. Russell has a YTD return of -12%, about 1% below the S&P. In the past five years, Russell underperformed S&P by 28%. Small-Cap stock performance is especially weak at time of market turmoil. A big difference is in the P/E ratio. Russell has a trailing P/E of 68.9, but the forward P/E sharply drops to 22.6. In good times, Small-Cap stock price have been inflated a lot more than the Blue-Chip. I expect their price to deflate faster in the pending recession. July CPI Data July CPI is unchanged from June month over month (M/M), and up 8.5% year over year (Y/Y). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is up 0.3% M/M and +5.9% Y/Y. Diving in the data by commodity category shows a different picture. Food: Up 1.1% M/M in July from 1.0% in June. Annualized food inflation is now 10.9%. Energy: Down 4.6% M/M, of which, gasoline, -4.6%; diesel, -4.7%; natural gas, -3.6%. Annualized energy inflation remains uncomfortably high at +33%. Gasoline price is 45% higher Y/Y after 50 days of consecutive price cuts. Commodities (excluding food and energy): Up 0.2% M/M and 7.0% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected products is: New cars, +0.6% and +10.4%; Used cars, -0.4% and +6.6%; Clothing, -0.1% and 5.1%; Pharmaceuticals, +0.6% and +3.7%. Services (excluding energy): Up 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected service categories is: Housing, +0.5% and +5.7%; Transportation, -0.5% and +9.2%; Medical, +0.4% and +5.1%. Overall, inflation is lower in July only because the sharp decline in energy prices offset the price gains in food, housing, new cars and medicine . Investors' thrill in the stock market may be gone when they go the supermarkets after work. There are signs that consumers are downgrading their food purchases in the face of runaway inflation. Firstly, people tend to give up dining out in favor of cooking at home to save money. In July, food at home inflation was +1.3% M/M and +13% Y/Y. Price inflation for food consumed away from home increased at a slower pace, up 0.7% M/M and 7.6% Y/Y. There is a 5.5% spread, which impacts food spending at these two segments. Secondly, meat purchases show an apparent shift toward less expensive options. In July, beef price inflated 3.4% Y/Y, while pork was up 7.6% and chicken up 17.6%. Within each meat category, lower cost products also show higher inflation, indicating more demand. For example, ground beef was up 9.7% Y/Y, while steak price was down 1.5%! Bearish Trade Ideas With the headwind facing American economy, I think that a recession is inevitable. Based on the above analysis, I recommend shorting the Russell 2000. A 60+ P/E is too rich a valuation. The index could crash harder than S&P during an economic downturn. We could consider shorting the CME Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 December contract (M2KZ2) . Each contract is $5 x Index. At current quote of 1,974, each contract has a notional value of $9,870. CME requires initial margin of $550. Another idea is on beef prices. American consumer generally eats more beef while dining out. With the shift to cooking at home and buying cheaper meat, I expect beef prices to fall faster than pork price during a recession. We could short the CME Live Cattle December contract (LEZ2) . Each contract is 40,000 pounds of cattle. At current quote of 150.575, each contract has a notional value of $60,230. CME requires initial margin of $1,600. The futures market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odd of success. I suggest my readers to subscribe to CME market data. TradingView users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:LE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
Another false breakout for the Russell 2000?The Russell 2000 has been prone to false breakouts since last fall as the index rallied to all time highs then failed at the end of 2021. The move from Monday/Tuesday of this week could set up the same fate for the index especially if the highly anticipated #CPI data comes in hotter than expected. You can also see that the November 2021, March 2022 and highs this week marked a turn in RSI as well. Tomorrow's data should have a strong impact on the index.
AMEX:IWM
by ForexAnalytix
The bias is still for higher levels on US Russ 2000US Russ 2000 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1870 (stop at 1845) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 1940 and 2020 Resistance: 1950 / 2020 / 2140 Support: 1890 / 1830 / 1760 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:US2000USDLong
by OANDA
Russell 2000: historical drawdowns point to more downside riskThe Russell 2000 's drawdown from its peak has been important (-26%), but not as severe as those seen during the dot-com bubble in 2002, the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid-19 at the start of 2020, when the US small-cap index plummeted by more than 40%. To reverse the current downtrend of the Russell 2000 , the underlying causes must also be reversed, which are primarily rising inflation and the need to raise interest rates. US ECONOMY: MACRO OVERVIEW Inflation is now widespread and is not solely due to increases in energy prices, such as oil and natural gas . The United States still has a very tight labour market that requires a rebalancing of supply and demand, to avoid further wage pressures. There are currently nearly two job openings for every unemployed American ( FRED:JTSJOL / FRED:UNEMPLOY ) and the labor-force participation rate has not recovered to pre-Covid levels. The result is a strong pressure on salary growth , which is currently at 11% year-on-year. The combination of higher energy prices and wage pressures raises labour input costs for US firms. Those who are unable to pass on higher costs to their customers will see their profit margins dwindle dangerously. In addition, since the Fed is firmly committed to raising interest rates , higher borrowing costs represent an additional drag on the growth outlook of small-cap firms. RUSSELL 2000 index: outlook The market believes that a recession will cause the Federal Reserve to slow its rate hikes or even reverse its policy stance. However, the Fed's focus remains solely on inflation, as the labour market remains close to full employment. To rebalance the labour market, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates aggressively. The short/medium term outlook on the Russell 2000 index remains bearish until the Fed signals a change, which is unlikely unless there is a major recession. A 40% drop from the peak would be a good entry point for opportunistic buyers to step in, indicating a wide bullish positioning clean-up. Such a level of drawdown corresponds to a Russell 2000 index level of 1,450.
TVC:RUT
by Capitalcom
1
Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P and RussellHow to use related markets to complement each other? Definitely you can apply this technique to other related markets. In this tutorial, I am seeing Nasdaq as a leading indicator for the rest may likely to follow. i) Nasdaq bear trend was nicely formed, but not yet for the Dow Jones, S&P and Russell. ii) Nasdaq in the short-term has also a confirmation for a rebound, and I believe the rest of the indices likely to follow subsequently. Discussion: • Drawing primary and secondary trendline • Nasdaq has broken above, the rest should catch-up, why? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Feel free to leave any comments below, I love to exchange ideas with you.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by konhow
18
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Short term bottom on Russell2000?Trade Idea: Selling EURJPY Reasoning: EURJPY to continue lower? Broken trend and EUR under pressure Entry Level: 1752 Take Profit Level: 1794 Stop Loss: 1741.5 Risk/Reward: 4.15:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:US2000Long
by Signal_Centre
Russell 2000 Index Futures (RTY1!),H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 1827.6 Pivot: 1752.1 Support : 1681.3 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 1752.1 in line with the overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement . Once we have upside confirmation that price has broken past pivot , we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to the intermediate resistance at 1795.3 in line with swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection. Should price break intermediate resistance, we would have a bullish bias that price would rise to the 1st resistance at 1827.6 where the pullback resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 127.2% fibonacci extension are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may drop to the 1st support level at 1681.3 in line with the swing low support. Fundamentals: Equities continue to experience a volatile summer trading season as Russell 2000 futures continue to trend lower, giving us a bearish bias on Russell 2000.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by Genesiv
RUSSELL 2000 respecting FIB levels; ABC may reach 1500 vol zone.The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave. As you can see in this weekly chart, Russell 2000 respects impt FIB levels. 2100 zone is Fib 0.236, 1900 is Fib 0.383, the current 1700 zone is Fib 0.50 & the projected 1500 bottom zone will be Fib 0.618, the most likely zone for a reversal. THE BULLISH CASE: if Russell 2000 holds the 1700 zone, the bounce will be very quick due to the 2 LOW VOLUME zones. The target will be 2100 with some consolidation near the 1900 zone. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by xtremerider8
Cosmos (ATOM) Death or LifeMany cryptos are found in crucial points: 1) BTC is in the 20k zone where we find solid support from the all-time high of 2017 2) ETH at 1k 3) Stocks Market (US500 & Nasdaq 100) on the one week average of 200 and on another solid support. Returning to some other interesting alcoins we find together with Solana at sale prices ATOM which is at $ 8 which finds 3 fundamental graphical factors 1) Support of its first point of maximum (green rectangle) 2) The Fibonacci extension at the price of $ 5 which has already been touched and now seems to be consolidating 3) Confirmation of the consolidation phase with a very visible bullish divergence with RSI rising and price falling. Obviously we are in a bear market and you have to be careful to enter a LONG trade, but it could be an interesting point to accumulate and make a first purchase. And what do you think? If you liked the analysis, leave a Like and comment. For more information contact us privately. LPI.sa, Grow with Us.
COINBASE:ATOMUSD
by LPI_Investments
Russell 2000 Futures Next Leg Down -10%Russell 2k $RTY1! broke below the 200 EMA on weekly and failed to regain 1800 as support. As the canary in the coal mine, the Russell 2000 comprises of the 2000 smallest stocks of the Russell 3000 (broad capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S stock market) and provides a solid bellwether for forward facing trends. Next move is a 10% markdown from 1700 to 1550. From there we will likely see a failure to regain 1600. With Q2 earnings coming and early signs of margin compression in the face of rampant inflation ($NKE earnings revealing some weakness), expecting to see 20 EMA crash below the 200 EMA with the 50 EMA following closely behind. On balance volume reflecting a downtrend that really gained momentum in late March / early April with no sign of reversing in the near-term.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by R0MM3LL
Small Caps Russell 2000 Looks Attractive: Elliott WavesHello traders and investors, today we will talk about small caps Russell 2000, in which from Elliott wave perspective, we see a completed 7-swing complex correction from the highs. Russell 2000 topped and completed its 5th wave of a five-wave bullish impulse already back in November 2021. Since then we can see slow, choppy and overlapped wave structure that we see it as a correction within uptrend. It's ideally a complex 7-swing A-B-C-X-A-B-C, called also a double three W-X-Y corrective pattern. A Double three is a sideways combination of two corrective patterns. It's a complex Elliott wave that is subdivided into three minor waves W, X and Y. Its internal structure is (3, 3, 3). In effect, the number three relates to corrective waves, therefore the structure (3, 3, 3) indicates that the WXY wave pattern is composed of three distinctive corrective waves. • A combination of two corrective structures labelled as WXY • Wave W and wave Y subdivision can be zigzag , flat, double three of smaller degree, or triple three of smaller degree • Wave X can be any corrective structure Well, if we are on the right path and if Russell manages to recover back above 1920 region and resistance line of a corrective channel in current risk-on sentiment, then we can easily confirm support in place and bulls back in the game. All the best! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by ew-forecast
1
US2000 has more room to fall !!RUSS2000 Intraday We look to Sell at 1699 (stop at 1714) We look for a temporary move higher. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. Previous resistance located at 1700. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Our profit targets will be 1645 and 1605 Resistance: 1700 / 1750 / 1945 Support: 1640 / 1470 / 1200 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:US2000Short
by VantageMarkets