A long-overdue small-cap reboundThe small-cap Russell 2000 Index has been the underdog among the four major US indices since last year. Its post-pandemic rally halted in early 2021, and subsequently, it went sideways for more than a year without making new highs. Meanwhile, the tech darlings continued to go north all the way until the beginning of this year.
The first half of 2022 has been marked by widespread risk-off sentiment and a precipitous drop in the US equity market. After being down almost 30% from the high, we now find the Russell 2000 Index at significant technical support levels that we believe a meaningful rebound will likely ensue.
The Index has bounced right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1700. We also observed bullish RSI Divergence where price made lower lows, but RSI showed higher lows, suggesting the bearish momentum is waning and at the cusp of a reversal.
Entry at 1806, stop above 1680. Targets are 1880 and 2100.
Disclaimer:
The contents in this idea are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Russell2000
RWM Russell 2000 Short. Is The US market crash coming ? Is The US market crash coming ?
We have 3 types of “crashes”
Correction <15% downward movement in a major indicy
Bear Market <20% downward movement in a major indicy
Black Swan event, something very unexpected that tanks the market, think 1987, 1929, challenger disaster, 911 and so on.
The fourth type is the 1919, 1929, 1999 and 2008 scenario that people generally refer to as a “crash” 2022 a new one ?
Sincereley L.E.D In Spain 14/05/2022
Russell 2000 - US Economy in Trouble, 50% Shorting Opportunity?Although big indices like S&P500 and Nasdaq, favouring large cap companies, have still got potential to update historic highs - what is small caps index Russell 2000 telling us?
It has already dropped by 30%, is there more downside and is it indicating that real US economy already in trouble?
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Looking at weekly timeframe it is visible that sharp drop in March 2020 has completed fourth wave of an impulse that has been developing since the great financial crisis of 2008
The proposed scenario suggests that the 5th wave has culminated in November 2021 and since then the next global correction has started which is likely to last even longer than the previous one that stretched from 1998 to 2009 - it's shocking to think of a correction for 11 years or longer
The most interesting opportunity however, is the potential development of an Expanding Triangle which may have been formed with A-B-C-D waves already
And given that there was an optimistic bounce on Friday 13th May in all the markets, there is a potential move for Russell 2000 towards $2140 to complete this triangle
In this case the next move to the downside may have a great opportunity with nearly 50% for shorting the index and expect the target in the range between $1000 and $1300 which represent 0.618x and 0.5x Fibonacci retracement levels of the global wave 3
What do you think about this idea and US economy as a whole?
Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you agree wit it.
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices or Forex pairs analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
BTC megaphone Elliot impulseHere we are ladies and gents the pattern we have been waiting for and for me personally what i think will be the decoupling of traditional risk assets and this good chunk of software.
I've been watching for anything that can come out of the wood works and i think we have found our area of capitulation. BTC hit the 50 EMA monthly and bounced right off that like a rubber band.
similar to what happened in 2020 and 2018.
Elliot impulse waves also seem to be at play.
i was looking for a decline to around the 23k to 25k area and it hit. theres a lot of things right now that is playing an effect on this though what i think could be the worst thing for the economy is higher asset prices and looks like we are going to get that both traditionally and non.
exciting times to be around.
That's all folks.
DXY Wyckoff distributionHere we go ladies and gentleman, after calling the bottom and an unprecedented run up in the dollar we have a top for now. (tested the 2016 highs)
This went a little over my initial projection though we can see that its finally confirmed (i think about 80%) that this is indeed the end of a great dollar era.
as far as the impact on equities I think that we could have a crazy blow off top rally with interest rates still needing to go higher to tame inflation and not much that the fed can do to pivot to tackle that.
Bonds are done for now.
commodities can still go higher.
Oil is still going to go much higher because of demand even though there is a slight trembling in the economic conditions. J pow can continue to raise rates because there is still somewhat of a strong economic backdrop and will not raise unemployment by raising rates.
only time will tell,
That's all folks
Vanguard Russell 2000 | Huge ABC correction inbound | $VTWOA five wave primary Elliot wave cycle has ended. A primary ABC correction will now take place before another primary downtrend begins. After two bear cycles there will be consolidation and reversal. Bull trend will follow consolidation.
1.) We have a right angled broadening bottom in progress
2.) We have an Adam and Eve double bottom on 1 hour and 5 minute charts
3.) The market is at exhaustion as the price cannot go lower than the mornings dump
4.) The daily chart show that the 5 elliot wave has stopped exactly at Fibonacci extension 1.236 of the 4th wave
1.5 YEAR as the INDUSTRY's been SHORTING. Sentiment RUssel 2000 small capitalization companies .
the cycles of growth and fall, aka distribution and collection (accumulating).
the index characterizes how much of private capital in market
15 months of institutions shorting
no private investors , no needed sentiment now , the Fed, wars and conflicts
I predict 1.5 year is enough and it's time for hedge funds and banks to close their short positions and start accumulating
fall 2022 when its gon be the new cycle of enormous rise
as the war ends and the Fed stops talking shit, people will be dragged to put their money into the stock market
look how Nasdaq index falls since January, there's no money in market currently , but it's about turning around in near months
remember my words
AUTUMN 2022
Market Sentiment is the most crucial
Nasdaq S&P500 big fall coming Nq!1 ES!1 qqq ndx spx r all downHi Everyone,
I will be posting my first idea after a long time. Here i am sharing my first idea.
I think Nasdaq and all other indices are up for a big fall
I have marked down the levels
I think we are in 3rd wave of 3rd of 3rd,... those who dont understand Elliott wave its allright...
this is 1.5 hours chart, I am looking for a bounce to sell from above...
FOMC Party is over folks!End of the relief rally after FOMC. Lots of shorts squeeze for the big expiry today. We should see a sharp pullback now.
We hit multiple resistances on Russel 2000 on multiple hourly, daily and weekly chart. Current price : 2050, Target is back to 1900. SL 2110
Disclaimer : I have short positions in Russel 2000 as mentioned here. This is not an investment advice but an educational idea.
Trouble ahead? SPX VIXChart 1: Whenever the the Russell 2000 came down and got close (from above) to the SPX, the SPX went further down.
(Pleased ignore the first red dot to the left, as the Russell die not come down there to meet the SPX but vice versa)
Chart 2: Whenever the VIX, coming from a modest down, crossed the red line, soon further spikes in volatility followed (red dots).
Particularly if the the VIX should cross the red line soon, you might consider hedging your positions.
Russell US2000 Daily Outlook | 22 - AprYesterday was massively profitable for me. Today, once again lets see how price will react towards my expectations.
Note: Am not a mentor, i am just a random guy who journals his trades on TView for trading community to read and comment their opinion. This not a signal hence copy at your own risk!
Kings.