Get started

Russell2000

The worst trading month of the year finally finished..!Let's Review My posts About September 2021 before it happens: 1- August 24th, 2021: What is "witching" and why is it quadruple? Conclusion: We can use this data to find the seasonality of the market! This could help us make better decisions especially in the weeks leading to Quadruple witching. 2- September 2nd, 2021: The market does not like long weekends..! It seems in 2021, anytime we have had a long weekend, it has been followed by a correction between 1.5 - 5.5%. Another important historical data that makes it more likely is September performance! The average monthly historical return of S&P 500 between 1950-2017, shows September is the worst month of the year..!(Investopedia) I believe a 2-4% correction could be the most probable scenario in the coming week..! 3- September 8th, 2021: Breaking down a movement! 4- September 9th, 2021: Rounding Top or More correction is coming..! Last words: S&P 500 finished September with -4.76%, very close to my (-2% to 4% prediction) on September 2nd, 2021. This was the biggest monthly correction since March 2020..! Try to gather as much data as you can and use them with a neutral mindset, you will see the result! Moshkelgosha
TVC:SPXShort
by Moshkelgosha
5
Major indexes Review and Support level UpdateAll major indexes started the week with a down gap and have continued sinking so far. These are the fact we should pay attention to: 1- 4786 out of 5816 traded assets are trading at lower prices today, 82.2%. 2- All major indexes trading below their 50 days moving averages 3- They are all trading near to the lowest daily numbers, which shows they are not settled down. 4- They just experienced 4-7% correction from their tops..! 5- This is the longest time in the history of the S&P 500 without a 10% correction. 6- September historically is the worst month of the year in comparison to other months in the past 70 years. 7- This correction must be considered as a correction unless we have enough evidence of trend reversal. 8- S&P 500 and Dow Jones have been closed at lower numbers 8 days out of the last 10 trading days, and NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 7 out of last 10 days closed at lower numbers! this clearly showed in short term more correction is more likely..! In conclusion, I believe we should wait for a sign of reversal, and we do not have any sign yet. Being ready is important: Let's review the process of this analysis in the past few weeks: DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:SPXShort
by Moshkelgosha
5
RTY - Russell 2000 a consistent Sell @ HighsIndependent Producers are being systematically crushed, slowly being wiped off the Competition Map. The Map itself is on a well defined Roll Up. Wreck them, collect them. Master of the obvious type stuff I know but many seem to cling to their hopes. The RUT has a large composition of Mixed Bags to hold. Weightings: Consumer Discretionary @ 13.1% Financials @ 15.1% Health Care @ 21..11% Industrials @ 15.35% Information Technology @ 14.13% Communications, Consumer Staples, Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities, Telecoms and Real Estate make up the balance. A horizontally opposed group of Sectors... On the surface of it, many would argue it is a balanced Index. It is certainly not, it is a place where Wall Street Parks $ during periods of indecision as it is a "Safe Place" for BlackRock and Vanguard to defend positions.... there are 2,000, but a very few are needed based upon the Sector weightings. Total Volatility is Highest for the RTY relative to the ES YM NQ (NQ Being 2nd in VX). ___________________________________________________________________ We anticipate a run back up to the Top of the Range @ 2335, our last sell for a great many handles due South.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by HK_L61
RTY and what I learn from my brotherI have not posted in few weeks and why is because I have working on new strategy. Everything I know of trading I learn from my brother honestly. He is the best trader I know and smartest person I know. He mentors me with trading. Much more in the past than now because I am a much better trader now. But he still helps me. He bankrolled my first trading account with 25000 USD and when I make this back I try and pay him back but he said keep it. Wow! I'm lucky. He is incredible with computers and he is a person that big companies hire to try and break in to their computers system and he finds the holes and weakness. (He got into a bit of teenage trouble for this, but he is very good man, now especially). He is also on tradingview but that is where I will leave it. Then he builds algorhythms that seal up the flaws. I don't pretend to understand. He also codes for trading strategies and I have the advantage of getting them no cost. but I digress. LOL So I notice that after 6 months that my returns start to fade some. This is despite me not changing anything about my strategy. So I seek my brothers advice. I ask him if this is statistically significant or not. He did some analysis and said yes this is real and significant. When your strategy becomes less profitable the market has adjusted to your strategy and it is time to make some adjustments. He said he would give me the strategy he is using now, but I said nope let me figure this out. So I get to work and I come up with a strategy that uses a moving average, RSI and ADX/DI. No shapes or wedges, support or drawing. I like this. I played around with my new strategy and use backtester that my brother uses. I find I can win almost 80% of trades with a risk reward of well over 3:!. I go to him and I say this can't be right. So he analyzed it too and came up with similar numbers. He said now for to forward test it for the real test. So over the past few weeks I did this and so did my brother. These are the results. PuckBunny total trades 72 wins 55 losses 17 win percentage 76% reward to risk ratio: 3.53:1 Sortino ratio of 2.03 Brother Puckbunny total trades 84 wins 69 losses 15 win percentage 82% Reward to risk: 3.22:1 Sortino ratio 2.41 So of course he always beats me and I ask him how. he said he adjusted my moving average to change to longer or shorter depending on volatility. Thus more trades, more win percentage and more money. He gave me the indicator he built for this and make it dummy (me) proof by showing the sells and buys on chart. An interesting part of this strategy is that the risk is quite large. In fact, in some trades the risk is 4 times more than potential reward. The thinking is that based on chance alone the price is much more likely to hit target than be stopped out. Add to this a directional bias and you have a winning strategy. the big risk is the opposite of what most of us were teach. However, he has built a safety being that he adjusts the stop in kind of a reverse trailing stop loss, based on how much below entry price is and volatility. So this big risk is rarely realized. So I have been using this strategy for 1 week and I take 7 trades and win them all. Now this is my first one to post. You can see details on chart. RTY long 2272 (you can see buy signal on chart) stop loss 2166 (I know right?) Let's see how this goes.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
15
S&P500 SPX week 34 preview and trading ideaYesterday (Monday 23 Aug), the market quickly recovered the last week correction and is trying to test the $4500 level. The S&P 500 E-mini Futures tested the $4492 level around 08:00 AM (London Time, GMT+1). The previous correction lasted about 5 days and it took about 5 days to recover. This correction, as well as the recovery, lasted both 2 days. After the breakout of the previous resistance level, we expect a trading range of around 66 points ($4455 – $4520). The focus of the week is on the Federal Reserve policymakers’ virtual appearance at the bank’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Thursday – Saturday). Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday. This event, as well as other factors such as the “New Home Sales”, “Core Durable Good Orders”, “Crude Oil Inventories”, “GDP Q2”, “Initial Jobless Claims”, etc. will add volatility to the week. This week’s trading idea is to sell the 4535/4540 vertical call spread with expiration 27 Aug 2021 for a credit around $0.55 against a $5 collateral.
SP:SPX
by CucabarraTrading
Gold 120 Pips In ProfitGood day guys! This is just an update in regards to this trade I put out over in the morning. We did get the RSI divergence to the zone that was marked and our entries were placed. We are currently up 118+ pips in profit. If you were able to get into this position, be sure to trail your SL into profit. Do not be surprised if you see price head higher to form a topping pattern. We do appreciate you for checking out this post and remember, we will see you on the other side. Rodrick Goss (CEO) Third Eye Traders
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ThirdEyeTraders
XSPA, bottom of range play on micro cap stock.*Not financial, trade, nor dating advice. This is a snipe of an asset that has been severely impacted by Covid lockdowns and, in so saying, could be an extremely volatile play if a variant makes headway through Summer and Fall. I don't have a prediction on when this trade may play out, but I'm getting very interested what I see on the chart. It's in a great location, at least for me, bottoms of ranges between 68.1 and 88.6 x2 off of fibs taken from the past 2 most significant outbreaks. Price action has been trending upward after break of the trend line from a pop in the spring. Previous to that it saw a high in June 2020, and a 50% play to $4.83 is not out of reach should this asset pick up more buy volume, and absent any spooks to the market. It has multiple W market structure in price action and in the internal indicators. Buy volume is gradually getting greater but still needs to see a more significant push. Maybe on earnings news? The moving averages are converging and starting to show upward movement. I'll believe it is bull when the 13ema crosses the 30sma. Right now the price is sandwiched between the 30sma and 200 sma, but still looks good imo. There are two bullish MACD divergences, both confirmed. MA's pointing up and have crossed the obv and the modified Williams%R. You can view the fundamentals here. Nothing to write home to mom about, but, more importantly, nothing terribly alarming stands out to me. I got a double after an entry in Fall 20 and have free stock after a trade in spring 2021. I'me slowly accumulating, and I'm in the trade without stops. Only a small percentage of my investable capital. I'll risk it going to 0. I'm looking to sell half on a double to get my original investment back and let the rest ride. I'm a beginning trader and like to incorporate technical and fundamental analysis into my trades. I also like when others take the time to share their thoughtful analysis, critique and comment. I received my discretionary trading education at TRi, School for Trader Development. Thanks for stopping by.
XLong
by Cryptough
4
Are we in Post Melt-Up phaseMy answer to this question is Yes..! It is highly likely that we were experienced the Melt-up in Small caps between March 2020 and February 2021 in the small caps! The sharpest move (+144% in 12 months) in the past 23 years! What Is a Melt-Up? A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed. Melt-ups often precede meltdowns. What is the Price Rate Of Change (ROC) Indicator The Price Rate of Change (ROC) is a momentum-based technical indicator that measures the percentage change in price between the current price and the price a certain number of periods ago. The ROC indicator is plotted against zero, with the indicator moving upwards into positive territory if price changes are to the upside, and moving into negative territory if price changes are to the downside. The indicator can be used to spot divergences, overbought and oversold conditions, and centerline crossovers. The Price Rate of Change (ROC) oscillator is an unbounded momentum indicator used in the technical analysis set against a zero-level midpoint. A rising ROC above zero typically confirms an uptrend while a falling ROC below zero indicates a downtrend. When the price is consolidating, the ROC will hover near zero. In this case, it is important traders watch the overall price trend since the ROC will provide little insight except for confirming the consolidation. Daily Charts in the past 7 months: Pure sideway! Weekly Chart: Monthly Chart: Conclusion: If you have small caps in your portfolio, define your emergency exit plan..! It will be needed soon! Reference Article: www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
TVC:RUT
by Moshkelgosha
2