Russell 2000: Bottom is in. Resting on two key supports.IWM is sitting at the confluence of a 6-month support trend line and a 16-month support trend line. Daily RSI is at its lowest level since March 24, just one day after the stock market bottomed following the corona virus crash. Primed for a bounce.
Russell2000
Why Small caps are at higher Risk!history tends to repeat itself..! and what has happened in the past has a higher chance of happing in the future!
March 2009 - Sep 2011:
Oct 2011- Jan 2016:
Feb 2016 - Dec2018
I will wait for the reaction to the trend line! closure below the trend line could bring a 20% further correction!
SPX & S&P 600 & RUSSEL 2000,which is a leading indicator "2.0"Indexes "Band of Brothers Edition 2.0 " Decoding the relation!!!
(No copyrights here feel free to redistribute and spread the knowledge)
In a nutshell, divergences between small caps and SP500 index has a kind of
leading volatility relation " Heads up" kind of a signal !!!
*** When you see minus " -.59 / -.62 " Divergence's reading between SPX & SLY
You need to be out of the market period.
*** When you see minus " -.48/ -.65 " on RUSSELL 2000'S INDEX you need to be out
of the market period.
*** SPX 600 has 10 signals Vs. 7 for RUSSEL. ( 3 more signals for SP600)
***SPX 600 has 4 lagging signals VS. 6 for RUSSEL 2000. ( 2 less lagging signals)
*** SPX 600 has a Median of 36 days Vs. 57 for RUSSEL 2000. ( SP600 better Median)
*** ETFs are slightly better than indexes in the sense that they are more "SENSETIVE.
-----------------------------------------DATA-------------------------------------------------------------------
Lagging Lagging # SINGNALS # SINGNALS MED.RUS Med.SPX russel spx 600
6 4 6 10 57 36.5 62 2 Percentage SPX'S DAYS FOR A PULLBACK RUSSELL 2000 SPX'S DAYS FOR A PULLBACK S&P SMALL CAP 600
61 36 10% Laggeing by 3 days 2 Days heads up
36 13 35% NO SIGNAL !!! 36 days before Covid 19
57 91 20% Double signals 62 days & 8 days 13 days
28 37 12% 61 days Triple signals: 91 days & 81 days & 38 days
48 35 3% Lagging by 1 day NO SIGNAL
91 28 3% Lagging by 9 days Lagging by 8 days
67 3% NO SIGNAL !!! 37 Days
61 5% Lagging by 7 days Lagging by 7 days
91 13% 36 Days 35 days
4%+10% 1 day + 57 days from double pullback NO SIGNAL
2% Lagging 1 day Lagging 1 day
11% 28 days 28 days
21% NO SIGNAL !!! 67 days
6% 48 days 61 days
SLY STOPPED HERE 8% 91 days 91 days
IJR USED HERE INSTEAD 31% Lagging during a crash 35 day lagging during a crash 35 day
During a crsh NO SIGNAL
During a crash During a crash
S&P500 - About time for a proper retracement??Am just looking at my panel of leading indicators, and besides the S&P500 ES1! daily chart looking a bit stalled with MACD turning down, the Russell2000, DJ Transports and Value Geometric Index are already leading down. Key levels to breakdown are in red circles.
Some others like the High Yield Bonds and TIPS are still holding; while the Treasury Bonds are being snapped up (Risk Off mode)
Volatility is low, waiting for a breakout.
Looks like a storm is brewing...
RUSSEL 2000 - Bullish formationI´m bullish for the small caps:) The market reached a logical target in the corrective movement. Now i´m looking forward to a bullish impulse to the upside. The scenario remains intact for the time being as long as the market stays above 2214.3. Below that level would be a bearish invalidation. As long as the market remains within this sideways range, everything is fine. Wave 2 would have even more room to correct. So my thesis is that the small caps are starting a small rally once again. That would also correlate with my general assessment of the market.
RUSSEL 2000 - Bullish summer rally for the small caps? I´m bullish for the small caps:) The market reached a logical target in the corrective movement. Now i´m looking forward to a bullish impulse to the upside. The scenario remains intact for the time being as long as the market stays above 2214.3. Below that level would be a bearish invalidation. As long as the market remains within this sideways range, everything is fine. Wave 2 would have even more room to correct. So my thesis is that the small caps are starting a small rally once again. That would also correlate with my general assessment of the market.
Ammo Inc. ($POWW) - Excellent Risk and Reward OpportunityAmmo Inc presents itself as an excellent opportunity in a market where a large number of stocks are significantly overvalued. Ammunition, as we know it, has been booming for a while since the pandemic and we're now in a shortage, which has allowed this business to position itself very nicely going forward.
Roth has labeled a $9 price target on the business. Subsequent to the valuation, it was announced that Ammo Inc. has been included in the June 4th preliminary list of member additions to the Russell 2000® Index and the Russell Microcap® Index, which become effective upon the opening of the US stock markets on June 28, as part of the 2021 Russell indexes reconstitution.
About (taken from their website):
AMMO, Inc. is a high-quality, technology-driven ammunition U.S.-based company; from our patented STREAK (R), HyperClean, and military ammunition technologies, to the latest and best manufacturing technology in the industry. Our manufacturing facilities and processes meet or exceed all SAAMI and MilSpec specifications.
Fundamentally, the company has established itself well and the underlying data can be found at FinViz
Technically speaking, the Risk/Reward opportunity is excellent. We can see it has broken out to the upside and has retested the $7.00 mark (the upper trend line) to validate the breakout. Let's be mindful of where this stands after next Friday's close. If we close below $7.00 next Friday, I'll be unwinding my position.
I have marked the Stops and Take Profit levels here accordingly.
Good luck and be sure to maintain your stops accordingly.
Traditional market analysis 12/06/2021 #3Hello everyone! Once again I'll have to repeat myself by saying that despite the fact stocks are overvalued, there could be much more upside. Given the way central banks and governments are acting, it is hard for me to see stocks reversing any time soon. Yes there will be some pretty strong corrections along the way and at some point a big bear market. But to me it looks like we are more in a situation like we were after breaking above the 2000-2008 highs or in 1987 than we are in 1970s or 2000s.
Other than the US all other stock markets were very depressed for 1 or even 2 decades. European stock markets have been showing a lot of strength and their charts are indicating significant upside from here rather than downside. Below I have added some European indices which all seem very very strong and with significant upside potential. In 2020 and so far in 2021 we had the US initially show most strength, then Asia and now Europe.
Of course this doesn't mean the US market is in a bad spot or anything. Quite the opposite. Actually European markets doing well is a very good sign for the risk on sentiment. Bond yields have been going lower in several places although some Central banks are raising rates. In my opinion in the EU and US we won't see higher rates any time soon and there is no other way out of this massive debt hole we are in. To me negative real rates are boosting stocks, as long as we don't see Oil getting completely out of control. As long as oil stays below 100$/barrel for some time and doesn't shock the market we could be OK. The same goes for most important commodities and especially Copper.
Currently the Russell 2000 is looking like it is about to come out of long period of re-accumulation. The Russell 3000 seems to be in a very strong uptrend that has the potential to continue even higher. We have no idea how massive this bubble could get as the biggest bubble is actually in the bond and currency markets. At least that's my opinion at the moment. This doesn't mean I think we will have hyper inflation or sustained inflation for more than 2-3 years, but it isn't impossible. Unfortunately policy makers are taking a ton of bad steps that are compounding little failures in the 'system' and eventually that will break either through social arrest or a market collapse. It's just not time yet and markets aren't that irrational yet... so dips are for buying and currently being long seems better than being short.
Where am I wrong at least for the short term? If the Russell 3000 closes below 2350. That's where my mental stop loss is.
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