What's the Russell 2000 telling us ?
Hi there. Beginning trader and technical analyst who received my education from TRi school of trader development. *My charts are not financial and/or trade advice and are posted for entertainment purposes.
Another day with head buried in charts. If there are any small cap, bottom hunters like me who have been in there hunting things that seem like they aren't going to stop going down or have finally found a bottom, then you may have been wondering when things might turn, and we begin seeing our portfolios going back up, and we can more aggressively hunt favorable long entries that show indication of stabilization and turning to add to our position.
Well if this chart is any indication I'm starting to think the time may be soon. I'm starting to see some double bottoms coming in on price and indicators, granted it is as the top of price action. It does look like price action has broken out of a potential Head and Shoulder Pattern and will be invalidated at the areas noted in chart.
Some fundamental considerations: Inflation fears particularly impact small caps and their cost in production. Possibly, there is a momentary pause on new money coming in from recent retail investors who have entered small cap positions in the past on the hype and Robinhood usability. Perhaps their retail money has been temporarily redirected to a more enthusiastic and euphoric crypto market? It will be interesting to keep an eye on the Russell to see if any sharp down turns-or more euphoria- in that space impact the 2000's trend.
Appreciate sharing of different perspectives on my analysis or sharing of your own. Thanks for stopping by.
Happy hunting.
RUSSELL:RUT
Russell2000
DJIA/Gold Ratio & 30-year Bonds/Russell2000 in Phase Transition!The Dow Jones (IA) / Gold Ratio and the U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds / Russell2000 Index Ratio are coinciding at key levels. Both ratios are at historic turning points, foreshadowing their respective Phase Transitions! (and as such, indicating highly volatile, multi-standard deviation moves in the global equity indexes.) The title chart is an extended (120 years) view of the ongoing DJIA / Gold analysis, this time applying the same metric as used in the earlier US 30-year Treasuries / Russell2000 Ratio analysis;
... For easy comparisons.
U.S. Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP now having exceeded 2.75 while the Historic Norm (not the low) remains 0.78 - i.e. ~70% below current levels(!!) - , it is rather self-evident that these phase transitions are likely to result in major (equity) market declines, and on a global scale. U.S. Margin Debt / U.S. GDP has also surpassed all previous, historic records (by a very wide margin!), not only in nominal measures but also in relative terms! I.e. Once this trap door opens (forced liquidations??... The most likely, least resistance path, catalyst) an initial 20%-25% decline in the SP500 would be well within the minimum expected.
SPX & Russel 2000 since 2003 "Bands of brothers ride together"Getting divergence between these 2 indexes and crossing below zero line or just above the zero line
we get a heads up kind of signals for higher volatility in SPX. Median of 44 days and Average of 45 days
to pullbacks. Median & Average pullback of 9.9 % & 10 %.
DATA:
- 29 day to 11% pullback
- 71 days to 4% pullback
-58 days to 10% pullback
-39 days to 15% pullback
- 3 day to 5% pullback
-Mid of 4% pullback
-1 day to 3% pullback
- 92 days to 12% pullback
- Double: 44 & 6 days to 20% correction
-62 days to 12% pullback
-90 days to 8 % pullback.
--------------------------
0.01 readings
-Zero Days to 10% pullback
-69 days to 6 % pullback
-3 days for a 3% pullback
-49 days for a 6 % pullback
CAUTION It's pretty common for BTC to have 20-30% corrections in a bull market and has been doing phenomenal with coinciding with previous run-ups.
I believe this is the 4th or 5th correction to this magnitude.
Things look pretty swell from where we came from this year and last and hope it can continue.
We just had a crossing on the weekly MACD and things are looking ripe for maybe another push higher.
RSI on the monthly cart is also declining from overbought territory.
There was a similar run up and fall in price action and when BTC futures started trading on CME compared to the COIN listing recently.
Regardless if you are HODLING forever or just trying to make quick movements in the price action of shitcoins it looks like we are taking a breather and could be something other than a correction.
I'm remaining on the cautious side with everything else thats developing across world markets and in the US.
That's all folks
RUSSEL 2000 Market Breakdown Analysis!!Hi ,
Indexes are clearly bullish . Untill market shows the opposite reaction we should take consider the current momentum.
Now, we have to find a proper palce to get in the trend. If price tousch the key levels which referred in the charts, hopefully it will be great opportunity to take consider!!
In case of, H&S neckline will be broken, deeper correction can be considered!!
Note: the posts are not investment idea
RUT - Russell 2000 on decline? - sharp drop and reverse in play!
Wolfe Wave on 15min - sign of a massive quick drop to support a final major trend reversal
a massive Bat harmonic on DAILY needs to finish
divergence on H&S top on major time frames
similar H&S structure to Feb/March 2000 drop
BLACK SWAN? - a Russia(Belarus & Turkey) WAR against Ukraine
As predicted M2KM21 downAs it was earlier predicted to downward side on M2KM21 chart, it is almost completed. Now the next movement depends on whether daily chart H&S formation will work or not. If daily chart H&S works then price will be pulled down to level below 2000 if not 2100-2150 range is a good buying opportunity imo.
NASDAQ / RUSSELL RELATIVE ANALYSISHi,
Seems like NASDAQ will start again its better performance against RUSSELL.
We touched the principal trendline and bounced, we also have a bullish divergence.
A throwback to trendline is a good opportunity to buy Nasdaq and sell Russel if you go for a relative trade.
Good luck,
Russel Mark-up.I think it is short in the near future, but long overall. I saw a similar thing happen last week Sunday. Rally hard to close week, big selloff to start new week, then a full week of rallying. I don't see anything that's changed.
Long term I think Russel is looking bullish. I feel like it's a little extended at the moment, so I think we should expect some correction. Retail traders, I don't know where you could possibly get in as a buy unless price goes way down from current locality. .382 saw a lot of activity. Maybe price will revisit, but bullishness is the attitude currently. Short sellers, I see some big juicy demand zones, but understand you are selling against the dominant momentum.
If we want to play the return to the closer trendline it's almost a 30 point drop down. Also, Russel is currently resting in a divergent/oversold state. Very tempting.
My risk manager is keeping me out of placing any orders, but I am trying to get in the habit of marking up charts over the weekend and seeing how the prophecies unfold.
If I were persuaded to go short I'd put my stop above the high wick. Realistically, I would have to see how the markets open and then play it from there.
I hate to miss out on a market opening rally. That is my biggest source of FOMO.
I did not like making this.
RUSSELL 2K for a move to 2k?Small caps have underperformed of late and price action in the Russell is testament to that. We've seen three bearish outside days this year, and granted the sample size isn't huge - a function of viewing this on the daily - but in the prior two episodes, we saw the index fall around 9.5% on average in 7 trading sessions. With bond yields creeping higher, amid ISM manufacturing and NFPs due this week, will small caps continue to see outflows? If we see follow-through and price through yesterdays low then 2k could well be on the cards
Buying Russell2000 on the break of 1h counter trend line breakRussell2000 is in uptrend on Daily chart. It broke above 1h down channel resistance line and got into BUY ZONE on daily. On 1h it is starting to move higher. Buying Russell2000 on the 1h counter trend line break bullish in the BUY ZONE. Target - 1h fib ABCD D extension. Stop = below current 1h fib ABCD A.