Inverted SPY Multi wedge playing out !!! Inverted chart gives better perspective some time, looks like BIG move is pending in Nov.
Russell2000
October 25 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,406.75 Excess Low; $3,470 Balance-Area High.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 40% of the rally that began after the September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside waning fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products failed to show continued confidence to explore higher.
Instead, as the week progressed, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walked back her deadline for a fiscal stimulus deal. After the initial drop on Monday, equity indices remained range bound until Thursday’s session saw responsive buyers establish an excess low at the conjunction of multiple visual references. The buying continued into Friday’s close, at the high-end of the weekly range.
Overall, the market’s failure to range-extend, in either direction, is a sign of minimal conviction. Currently, the market is in the thick of an earnings season, elections are nearing, and stimulus talks are off-and-on. Given that the week ended in balance, a clear change in perception will be followed by successful range extension in either direction. Adding, given Thursday’s responsive buying, there are good odds the market may make another attempt higher, confirmed by range-extension above $3,470 in the S&P 500. If participants were to auction into the $3,406.75 excess low, then the odds of downside follow-through increase substantially.
Fundamental:
In its global weekly commentary, BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) suggested the most recent resurgence of COVID-19 is not a replay of the spring. bit.ly
"We believe daily new infections are likely a fraction of the peaks then, and rising case counts are having a diminishing negative impact on mobility. The economic restart has been quicker than expected, but the part that remains will be hardest. We do not expect a similarly large hit to economic activity as seen in the spring.”
Adding, however, the report noted that the economy is facing challenges as the pace of growth begins to slow. Risks to the near-term recovery include fading fiscal stimulus, a prolonged or worsened pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and election complications.
Key Events:
Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Home Sales.
Tuesday: Durable Good Orders, House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Goods Trade Balance, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change.
Thursday: GDP Growth Rate, Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ, GDP Price Index, Pending Home Sales, PCE Prices QoQ.
Friday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final.
Recent News:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday said the latest plan for aid is under review. reut.rs
U.K.’s NHS is preparing to introduce a coronavirus vaccine soon after Christmas. bit.ly
Commercial real estate, specifically office and lodging, faces greatest uncertainty. bit.ly
Economy recovering slowly through October, but some sectors are still struggling. reut.rs
Policy drive toward transformation of health insurance poses risk to profitability. bit.ly
General Motors Co (NYSE: GM) investing $2 billion to build EVs in Tennessee. reut.rs
Intel Corporation’s (NASDAQ: INTC) sale of memory business a credit positive. bit.ly
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) breakup may be needed to end antitrust violations. reut.rs
China’s recovery lifted industrial commodities as its economy improved materially. bit.ly
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) raised its full-year outlook after a third quarter beat. reut.rs
American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) issued a dismal outlook on travel, entertainment. reut.rs
Unacceptably high unemployment, low rates of resource utilization to rein in yields. bit.ly
Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP) reported a bigger-than-expected drop in profit. reut.rs
American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) call for aid. reut.rs
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) released “Full Self Driving” software upgrade to drivers. reut.rs
AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) resuming trials. reut.rs
How blank-check acquirers could reshape emerging companies’ roles in markets. bit.ly
Fintech startups broke apart financial services and now the sector is rebundling. bit.ly
Texas Instruments Inc’s (NASDAQ: TXN) revenue outperforms, outlook improves. bit.ly
China banking law changes will improve bank capital and formalize bank resolution. bit.ly
Business activity rose to a 20-month high as pace of new growth and orders eased. reut.rs
Courts rule against Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose in September, as retailer sales growth softened. reut.rs
FDA has approved Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD) antiviral drug remdesivir. cnb.cx
Central bank digital currencies would compound current digital disruption for banks. bit.ly
The 2020 election could permanently change the way the United States does voting. bit.ly
Pandemic, remote work causes migration to small towns near public lands, resorts. bit.ly
Almost 60% of mutual fund assets will be ESG by 2025, according to a PwC forecast. bit.ly
Google Inc’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) dominance is reflected in search startup funding. bit.ly
President Vladimir Putin saw no need for global oil producers to change supply. reut.rs
More companies are offering earnings guidance, signaling adaptation to uncertainty. reut.rs
The third quarter could be the ‘biggest quarter of growth’ in United States history. bit.ly
Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) beat estimates for its third-quarter profit. reut.rs
Purdue Pharma LP agreed to plead guilty to criminal charges over prescription opioid. reut.rs
European Union to cut Canada, Georgia and Tunisia from “white list” travel countries. reut.rs
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 35.7% Bullish, 31.2% Neutral, 33.0% Bearish as of 10/21/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,051,710,147 as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 40.9% as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
RUSSEL (4H) Backtest : 68% win rate across 19 trades => 17.8 RDetailed backtest result : prnt.sc
Non-looser = 84%
Icons on the chart
Thumbs up : Trade was a win
Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss
Variables
Avg winner = 1.6R
Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
RTY (Russell) (4H) : Liquidity run coming!Who wants to bet that RTY (Russel) is setting up for a liquidity run on those juicy equal highs?
If that's the case, this could be short term bullish but then bearish.
October 17 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Prior ATH, Poor Structures, $3,500 and $3,370 High-Volume Areas.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with S&P 500 retracing more than 80% of its September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products surged past and built value above a major high-volume concentration as initiative participants (i.e., those buying within or above prior value) showed continued confidence to explore higher.
As the week progressed, however, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) suspended its vaccine trials and expectations regarding further stimulus tempered. The weakness was exacerbated by the prior week’s emotional activity which attracted an enormous amount of speculative derivatives activity and left behind poor structures that offer little-to-no support; as the monthly options expiry neared and dealers unwound their hedges, the market endured a quick correction of the poor structure.
Overall, the market remains out of balance and higher. Barring some exogenous event -- such as negative news regarding added stimulus, vaccine progress, and the election -- there is good potential that the market continues exploring higher with an obvious target being, in reference to the S&P 500, the prior all-time-high.
Fundamental:
In its 2020 World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its expectations on global growth, but cut long-term forecasts on a slower recovery.
"The scarring is expected to compound forces that dragged productivity growth lower across many economies in the years leading up to the pandemic — relatively slow investment growth weighing on physical capital accumulation, more modest improvements in human capital, and slower efficiency gains in combining technology with factors of production,” the report said. bit.ly
Adding, according to Axios, the hard part of the recovery is just beginning; the IMF is urging governments to keep financial lifelines open; "I worry most about withdrawing support to workers and firms prematurely because it could cause a wave of bankruptcies and massive increase in unemployment," IMF head Kristalina Georgieva said during a media appearance.
Key Events:
Monday: Fed Chair Powell Speech, Fed Williams Speech, NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Clarida Speech, Fed Bostic Speech, Fed Harker Speech.
Tuesday: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Evans Speech.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed Brainard Speech, Fed Mester Speech, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Beige Book.
Thursday: Jobless Claims, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales, Fed Barkin Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Friday: Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash.
Recent News:
Data points to reduction in economic activity on virus restrictions. bit.ly
Despite the virus, structured finance ratings have remained stable. bit.ly
Bank earnings soar again alongside increasing trading revenues. bit.ly
Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) still burning cash amid recovery. reut.rs
EU makes 1 billion-euro bet on Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) reut.rs
BP Plc (NYSE: BP) leaving emerging market oil, but could return. bit.ly
BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) beat estimates on strong inflows. reut.rs
JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) optimistic on virus recovery. reut.rs
With economy and credit rolling along, Fed unlikely to alter buying. reut.rs
Big technology companies nervousness prompts calls to diversify. reut.rs
U.S. retail sales blow expectations in September amid recovery. reut.rs
Gulf Coast energy companies restoring oil, gas output post-storm. reut.rs
Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) is betting on self-driving machines. reut.rs
New Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone to offer non-material 5G. reut.rs
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) cut prices of Model S in U.S., China. reut.rs
Used vehicles again lift U.S. consumer prices, but inflation cools. reut.rs
U.S. consumers more optimistic about the labor market, says Fed. reut.rs
As the globe gallops into vaccine trials, insurers remain unfazed. reut.rs
U.K. minister is seeking cash from the Treasury for a no-deal Brexit. reut.rs
Despite economic and health crisis, consumers defy expectations. bit.ly
How the market learned to stop worrying and love the blue wave. reut.rs
Fed officials calling for tougher regulation to prevent asset bubbles. reut.rs
Citadel Securities has sued the SEC over a new trading mechanism. reut.rs
Moody’s downgrades U.K. as COVID-19 and Brexit hit debt outlook. reut.rs
Newly rated loans from high-yield issues rose for the second month. bit.ly
Funding to North American startups held steady in Q3 as exits rose. bit.ly
The President does not actually impact the economy as thought. bit.ly
U.S. gun sales soar amid pandemic, social unrest, election fears. reut.rs
Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) Libra tapped an ex-HSBC executive. reut.rs
Trump urges big COVID-19 stimulus, but Mitch McConnell disagrees. reut.rs
U.S.’s weakest local economies may face worse from the pandemic. reut.rs
G20 pledges to do ‘whatever it takes’ to support the global economy. reut.rs
Fed’s Clarida says data 'surprisingly strong,’ but deep holes remain. reut.rs
IEA: Oil producers may struggle to gauge demand amid second wave. reut.rs
Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) sees virus credit losses rising. bit.ly
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 34.8% Bullish, 29.5% Neutral, 35.7% Bearish as of 10/14/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,113,195,433 as of 10/16/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 41.1% as of 10/16/2020. bit.ly
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Russel2000 (RUT) Path and directionHello everyone
This is my Russel2000 idea for Daily time frame
watch key notes for more detail on chart
for any question feel free to ask :) good luck
Russell 2000 (My Dead Friend loved to trade this)Updated View on Russell 2000 (29 Sept 2020)
My dead trader friend loved to trade Russell 2000.
He was the one who showed me the world of trading in 2008-2009.
Due to the family issue, he took his own life in early 2010-2012. Thanks for the memories, Philip.
Memories aside. RUSS 100 is in the strong UP trend and it shall continue to stay so.
1,500 shall act as strong support/ gate keeper for now as long as the level is support well, any sell positions shall be considered as a counter-trend entries and you need to be very fast.
Overall. it is still BULLISH.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment".
Thank You!
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
October 11 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,500 High-Volume Concentration; Poor Structure; Balance Break; Stimulus; Earnings.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with S&P 500 retracing more than 50% of its September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products initiated past and built value above a major high-volume concentration.
The movement out balance provided initiative participants (i.e., those buying within or above prior value) with greater confidence to explore higher. In moving higher, however, the market left behind numerous poor structures, suggesting much of the activity was emotional.
The aforementioned short-term, momentum-driven activity is most attributable to the consensus there will be another round of stimulus. If talks were to fall apart or some other non-technical factor was introduced, there is good odds the market would endure a fast-moving correction of the poor structure.
Overall, the market has moved out of balance and is resolving to the upside. Outside of some exogenous event, it is likely that the market will continue exploring higher with the S&P 500 trading up to the high-volume area at the $3,500 strike where the concentration of open interest in options is heavy.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
According to Evan Karson and Bridget Ryan of Moody’s Analytics, the economic recovery is facing two big downside risks.
“Two major downside risks loom over the road to recovery that could determine which path the labor market will follow: a spike in COVID-19 cases or a fiscal policy blunder. A double-dip recession will be unavoidable if widespread contagion slows business activity materially or sparks another round of nonessential business closures. The risk of a surge is increasing as the weather gets colder and people begin to socialize inside.” bit.ly
Adding, the two suggest that a failure to deliver another round of direct stimulus payments or expand unemployment benefits would cut into household spending and damage consumer-driven industries hardest. The most significant gains, though, would occur if and when a vaccine is made available.
Key Events:
Monday: No events.
Tuesday: Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, PPI MoM, Fed Clarida Speech, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Kashkari Speech.
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fed Williams Speech, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary, Business Inventories, Michigan Inflation Expectations Preliminary, Foreign Bond Investment, Overall Net Capital Flows.
Recent News:
Hurricane Delta deals the greatest blow to U.S. offshore energy production in 15 years. reut.rs
Demand for steel is expected to grow to meet rising social and economic welfare needs. bit.ly
BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) sees election risks playing out in asset classes and sectors. bit.ly
Next administration to confront five policy challenges with wide-ranging credit impact. bit.ly
White House urges Congress for interim coronavirus relief as negotiations continue. reut.rs
The pandemic economy carved up a deep divide between the haves and have-nots. on.wsj.com
A Biden win could mean stricter enforcement for the biggest four technology companies. reut.rs
Nasdaq Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) could transfer its data centers to Texas, from New Jersey. bit.ly
Amid recession, markets sense upturn despite pockets of profound depression-like misery. bit.ly
International Business Machines Corp (NYSE: IBM) to split itself into two companies. reut.rs
Saudi Arabia is considering cancelling OPEC plans for an oil output hike early next year. on.wsj.com
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) cut its rolling 20-year forecast for airplane demand on COVID-19. reut.rs
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) plans to keep most theatres open. reut.rs
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) has a chance at producing 500,000 cars this year, Musk said. reut.rs
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 34.7% Bullish, 26.3% Neutral, 39.0% Bearish as of 10/7/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 8,490,294,012 as of 10/9/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 39.7% as of 10/9/2020. bit.ly
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY
Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD
Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO
Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Russell 2000: Reversal Soon??IWM is very close to multiple potential resistance lines. (rectangle) I would not be surprised to see a reversal soon, like with the SPY. Looking for price signal of a reversal such as bearish candle pattern or a price drop below a up trendline break. Note: long and shorter term drop in volume. There is a potential bearish divergence in the daily RSI. IFFF my count is correct (there are often wrong even with so called experts) wave 3 of C could be fast and furious.
Process your way. Best to you.
Russell: The formation of a descending pattern 3W is possible.The formation of a descending 3W pattern is possible if the resistance level of 1575 is not broken upwards.
RTY (Russell) (4H) Backtest : Break of market structureWinners = 8
Losers = 3
Breakevens = 2
Total Trades = 13
% Non Losers = 77%
% Winners = 62%
% Breakevens = 15%
% Losers = 23%
Win/Loss = 267%
Net R = 9.8
Avg R/Winner = 1.23
Avg R/trade = 0.75
Bad trades prevented due to presence of liquidity near SL= 26
Icons on the chart
Thumbs up : Trade was a win
Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity behind the stop loss
Variables
Avg winner = 1.6R
Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone (against the trapped traders).
Russell's Temporary Breakout 10/4/2020RTY at the daily view.
The RTY finally broke out of its short-term resistance (blue line). However, it's still in a giant sideways to slight downward channel. Furthermore, RTY has been in a general box between 1400 to 1600 for years. The reason for its sub-1400 days was due to unusual bear market events. The reason why it was above the 1600s before is because TSLA was once part of the Russell 1000 - now part of the NASDAQ.
Russell is actually one of my favorite indices to trade because of its predictability. Now, we are see tech going down and small caps going up. That kind of reeks of institutional movements - much like what happened in July.
Not much to say. Russell is literally one of the few indices or sectors that I short when it reaches around 1600 - might be a little lower this time. I plan to long when it reaches the mid-1400s. It's been in predictable trading box which is why I really like it.
October 4 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Low-Volume Area Below $3,320; High-Volume Area At $3,370; NDX, RUT, and SPX divergence.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with the S&P 500 retracing 50% of the sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Participants defended the low-volume area -- which denotes upside directional conviction -- below $3,320.
Most notable was what happened after Thursday’s failure to extend past responsive selling at the $3,370 high-volume ledge. The lack of conviction resolved itself in Friday's overnight liquidation on news that U.S. President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19, thus returning the market back into balance.
Defense of the low-volume area, alongside the development of low-excess highs during the U.S. cash session, suggests the potential for further upside. Auctioning through the low-volume area, however, may trigger downside follow-through, with the S&P 500 moving as far as the $3,198 swing low.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
ARK Invest CEO and CIO Catherine Wood suggested another stimulus bill would be released prior to the election, with Airlines being one major beneficiary. A problem with such a bill is that the economy has hit escape velocity and some of the stimulus included may not be necessary. bit.ly
“We also, in terms of fiscal policy, hope that these policies are not going to get in the way of so-called creative destruction. What we mean by that is disruptive innovation tends to take off during difficult times. But, if companies and industries are being subsidized just to hang on a little longer, that’s probably not good for anyone.”
Simply put, Wood theorizes the government's stimulus of dying industries is a disservice, as it diverts resources to less productive areas of the economy.
Key Events:
Monday: Fed Barkin Speech, ISM Non-Manufacturing, Fed Evans Speech, Fed Bostic Speech.
Tuesday: Balance of Trade, Fed Chair Powell Speech, Fed Harker Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed Barkin Speech, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Kashkari Speech, Consumer Credit Change, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Evans Speech.
Thursday: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Fed Barkin Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Friday: Wholesale Inventories.
Recent News:
U.S. election to supercharge structural trends, increased focus on sustainability. bit.ly
Azerbaijan (Turkey-backed) and Armenia (close to Russia, Iran) conflict flares. bit.ly
If the president holds onto Florida, then the entire election grows far closer. bloom.bg
The Treasury market’s size to outstrip dealer capacity to safely intermediate. bloom.bg
Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) granted a London license after battle. reut.rs
FAA Chief conducts two-hour evaluation of Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX. reut.rs
Technology companies cozy up to Biden campaign with cash and connections. reut.rs
U.S. auto sales stay on a path to recovery despite the tighter inventories. reut.rs
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) to move 787 production to South Carolina in 2021. reut.rs
Fed’s Kaplan says he wants to be careful about further quantitative easing. reut.rs
U.S. job growth slows; nearly 4 million Americans permanently unemployed. reut.rs
Ford Motor Company’s (NYSE: F) auto sales recover on a demand pickup. reut.rs
Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) logistics division has raised $500M. reut.rs
House Speaker Pelosi says airline aid deal is near, asks for halt to job cuts. reut.rs
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports record deliveries, Model 3 underwhelms. reut.rs
Lawmakers pressure U.S. trade representatives to strike Taiwan trade deal. bit.ly
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) cut price on Chinese Model 3 with CATL battery. bloom.bg
Wall Street is preparing its systems for the election trading surge, volatility. bloom.bg
The COVID-19 vaccines further along in clinical trials are hardest to deploy. bit.ly
China’s support for infrastructure investment will aid the economic recovery. bit.ly
Structural shifts triggered by the pandemic to benefit a tech subsectors. bit.ly
Senator McConnell cancels scheduled senate floor votes for two weeks. on.mktw.net
‘I wasn’t feeling so well. I feel much better now’: Trump’s address to America. on.mktw.net
China’s economic recovery from the pandemic helps drive its stocks higher. on.wsj.com
COVID-19 will lead to lasting behavioural changes in consumption and work. bit.ly
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 26.2% Bullish, 30.7% Neutral, 43.1% Bearish as of 9/30/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 921,593,487 as of 10/2/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 44.7% as of 10/2/2020. bit.ly
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
Gold (GC):
Crude Oil (CL):
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Russell 2000 Index, Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For Sep 28, 2020Technical Analysis and Outlook
As noted before, the small-cap Russell 2000 index is an excellent overall market indicator; The index shows us resuming it the Main/Intermediary uptrends since Sep 24. A buying zone is identified at Mean Sup $1,502 , with the exit at Mean Res $1,553 and Mean Res $1,591, and completed the Inner Index Rally marked at $1,602 respectively, based on one's money management scheme. To continue the rest of the market story, see the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For June 29, 2020" page at the usual site.
RussellPerhaps time to short, at least tactically.
The Russell has fallen below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and seeming confirmed a breakdown below a descending triangle (sloppily drawn) the began to form at the beginning of the month.
On a daily chart of standard candles there is a gap to fill around 1423, perhaps we are headed there now.
A trailing stop above the 10dma to stem any bleeding in the event of a hard reversal (JPow flaps his horse lips some more tomorrow) and the Fed put is still alive as far as we know so shorting is always uncomfortable.
Trade accordingly.
S&P Warning This is not a drill ! S&P failed to break above the trendline, RSI & MACD both indicate reversal in play. We are ready for final wave 5 to complete this bearish megaphone pattern.
Please be careful out there.
CSGP, MACD Histogram just turned positiveThis is a Bullish indicator signaling CSGP's price could rise from here. Traders may explore going long the stock or buying call options. Tickeron A.I. dvisor identified 57 similar cases where CSGP's MACD histogram became positive, and 43 of them led to successful outcomes. Odds of Success: 75%. Current price $859.78 is above $852.96 the highest resistance line found by Tickeron A.I. Throughout the month of 08/26/20 - 09/28/20, the price experienced a +2% Uptrend. During the week of 09/21/20 - 09/28/20, the stock enjoyed a +4% Uptrend growth.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2020. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CSGP as a result. In 73 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CSGP just turned positive on September 28, 2020. Looking at past instances where CSGP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise, Tickeron AI shows that in 43 of 57 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +4.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CSGP advanced for three days, in 250 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
CSGP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 53%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.44.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CSGP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.46) is normal, around the industry mean (3.51). P/E Ratio (105.54) is within average values for comparable stocks, (139.98). CSGP's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (44.75) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.60). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.11) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.68) is also within normal values, averaging (7.36).
RUT Russell Small CapsSmall caps have not been as enthusiastic about the rally as tech and SPX in the run up since March. We see that it's been making lower lows and lower highs since August 11 peak, and RSI has been showing continuing weakness on the daily chart. If SPX is going to have a meaningful sustainable rally, it's going to need the small caps and financial sector to follow suit. This has not been the case.
PLMR, was a top quarterly gainer, rising +20.83%. Palomar Holdings (PLMR, $100.53) was one of top quarterly gainers, jumping +20.83% to $100.53 per share. Tickeron A.I.dvisor analyzed 46 stocks in the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry over the last three months, and discovered that 28 of them (61.11%) charted an Uptrend while 18 of them (38.89%) trended down. Tickeron A.I.dvisor found 172 similar cases when PLMR's price jumped over 15% within three months. In 152 out of those 172 cases, PLMR's price went up during the following month. Based on these historical data, Tickeron A.I. thinks the odds of an Uptrend continuation for PLMR are 88%. Current price $100.04 crossed the support line at $101.56 and is trading between $101.56 support and $90.73 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 08/18/20 - 09/18/20, the price experienced a -3% Downtrend. During the week of 09/11/20 - 09/18/20, the stock fell -4%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
PLMR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 103 of 109 cases where PLMR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
September 13 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Dull Participation; Poor Structure On Both Sides; Strong Names Break Trend.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with the S&P 500 correcting to $3,300.
Recapping last week’s action, on Tuesday, alongside Brexit news, on a second attempt, the S&P 500 broke through the $3,400 low-volume area, suggesting directional conviction changed. After spending much of the day trading neutral, the S&P extended lower, in-line with delta and away from value.
On news of AstraZeneca plc's (NYSE: AZN) suspended COVID-19 trial, selling continued overnight into a base of liquidity in the $3,290 region before buyers regained control and one-time framed the market higher, to and through prior value and the low-volume area broken the day prior.
On Thursday’s economic data, the S&P 500 liquidated after non-convicted buyers failed to take out the prior day's low-excess high. Selling intensified as the market ate into prior low-volume, before closing off on a weak low, in-line with the prior day's cash-session low. After tech shares led an overnight rally up to some low-volume areas from the prior day's session, machine-like selling appeared and pushed the market through the weak low’s, before buyer's regained strength to finish Friday off in-range.
Overall, the recent mechanical activity to and from key technical levels denotes the non-presence of larger other time frame (OTF) participants and conviction. Heavily weighted index constituents are breaking trend while the broad market’s failure to extend much lower into the poor structure below it, coupled with reduced volatility pressures, suggests immediate downside may be limited. As a result, it’s time to temper expectations and look to reposition in line with emerging macro-economic and geopolitical themes.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
ARK Invest analyst Sam Korus suggested that the risks to auto loans, the securities supporting them, and underlying collateral may threaten the entire auto ecosystem.
“The percent of auto loans delinquent by 90 days or more has been rising for almost four years and is approaching levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009, as shown below. During the GFC, most consumers and businesses prioritized the servicing of auto loans over their mortgages because, in the absence of ride-hailing, they relied on vehicles to keep their jobs and businesses going. Now working from home, they seem to be prioritizing mortgages and home equity (HE) loans over auto and credit card debt.”
Korus also noted delinquencies may double while the underlying collateral will likely see a depression in residual value due to the mobility revolution. As a result, consumers, lenders, dealerships, and auto manufacturers may suffer financial damage as secular risks rebound in the tail-end of the COVID-19 recovery.
Source: ARK Investment Management @ bit.ly
Key Events:
Tuesday: Industrial Production.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications; Retail Sales; Business Inventories; NAHB Housing Market Index; EIA Stocks Change; FOMC Economic Projections; Fed Interest Rate Decision; Fed Press Conference; Foreign Bond Investment; Overall Net Capital Flows.
Thursday: Building Permits; Jobless Claims; Housing Starts; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment; CB Leading Index; Michigan Inflation Expectations.
Recent News:
White House eyes executive actions as virus-relief talks appear finished. wapo.st
Weekly jobless claims flatten as the labor market shows signs of fatigue. reut.rs
Bank of Canada head says too soon for exit from stimulus, will adjust QE. reut.rs
Forecasters see a 69% chance of an accessible vaccine by March 2021. bit.ly
New York office glut signals market downturn amid coronavirus recovery. reut.rs
Used cars drive U.S. consumer prices higher; inflation pressures firming. reut.rs
NYSE indicates that it will exit New Jersey if the state taxes stock trades. reut.rs
Equity market turmoil seen unlikely to provoke Federal Reserve response. reut.rs
U.S. proposes to waive minimum flight requirements for airlines until 2021. reut.rs
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) launches fast electric car charging in Berlin. reut.rs
Pandemic e-commerce surge spurs race for Tesla-like electric delivery vans. reut.rs
Return of rush hour traffic in Europe and Asia adds to mixed outlook for oil. bloom.bg
West Coast freight networks ‘bursting at the seams’ with surging imports. on.wsj.com
Equity funds have seen net outflows every week for every month of 2020. bit.ly
Purchasing managers’ indexes from ISM and IHS Markit show recovery. bit.ly
Production problems spur FAA review of Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 787. on.wsj.com
Copper on the cusp of a historic supply squeeze as China ups demand. yhoo.it
New set of digitally influenced norms and behaviors born among consumers. bit.ly
Second wave of COVID-19 confronts Western Europe, following a sharp fall. bit.ly
Small businesses exhausted federal funding and started to lay off workers. bit.ly
Equity market volatility stemmed from risk of new, different tax frameworks. bit.ly
August jobs stronger than anticipated but did not meaningfully change outlook. bit.ly
European recovery is losing momentum as demand is soft, uncertainty remains. bit.ly
Japan’s economy to mark sharp contraction as a second wave materializes. bit.ly
Downtrend in credit quality slowed with upgrades outnumbering downgrades. bit.ly
Simon Property, Brookfield Property to buy JCPenney Company Inc (OTC: JCPNQ). cnn.it
Economic model reform hopes rise as China focuses on inward economic shifts. reut.rs
Rise in remote, distributed workforces may drive new wave of venture deals. bit.ly
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates as of September 11, 2020. bit.ly
The global energy transition is well under way and is accelerating rapidly. reut.rs
Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) to test drone delivery of grocery household items. reut.rs
U.S. airlines warn on travel recovery while awaiting fresh recovery aid. reut.rs
U.S. utilities say Biden plan to cut C02 hinges on breakthroughs in clean tech. reut.rs
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 23.7% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 48.5% Bearish as of 9/9/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,970,983,599 as of 9/11/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 42.1% as of 9/11/2020. bit.ly
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX
Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD
Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO TSX:DBO AMEX:USL
Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
ridethepig | Small Caps Breaking DownA timely update to the Russell 2000 after running into sellers at the 1600 resistance which was previously support. Small caps have seen a huge uptick in selling interest and momentum is starting to kick in.
Buyers giving up the diagonal support is opening up a world of trouble and asking for sellers to apply more pressure. The V shapers and naysayers that its not different this time will continue with the necessary text, the question is whether real money decides to step in and stop the bleeding. After losing support the next key level in play is 1350, and a deeper extension towards 1,175.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
