Russell2000
RUT signficant resistance ahead The same predicament exists in the RUT as the SPX. Is this 5-wave impulse currently labeled as wave (B) actually all of higher degree wave (2)? A move back below 1200 suggest the shown count is correct. We are looking for a completion of wave C with a decline lower towards 1000.
Russell 2000 Index, Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For April 27, 20Technical Analysis and Outlook
The small-cap Russell 2000 index gained 2.2% for the week. The index hit our uptrend movement projection to Inner Index Rally $1,365 and Key Res $1,350 , respectively, on April 29th. The short term downside support is tapped at Mean Sup $1,250 and prone to go down to Mean Sup $1,185 before thrusting the retest of the Key Res $1,360 .
Divergence in US indicesThe 200 Moving average is commonly used as an indicator of bull or bear stance by the hedge funds, analysts and investment banks.
If price action stays above 200 MA, it is bullish and if below 200 MA, then it is bearish.
In this chart, we can see clearly that only Nasdaq is currently above it while DJIA and Russell 2000 are still bearish. SPX500 recently closed above the 200 MA only to come tumbling down last Friday.
I post a chart last week on how certain US stocks are leading the SPX500 and may not reflect the actual stock market.
Will Nasdaq follow the other US indices and fall below the 200 MA soon ? Or will it lead the rest and charge higher ?
The obvious one is the Russell 2000 with many of the small cap companies facing a tough time coping with the low to zero revenue and still needing to cough out expenses like wages, operating costs, etc.
I expect Q2 results to be worse than Q1 and that may provides us with clearer signals on the stock market thereafter.
I will be watching this chart closely and update accordingly.
AMZNLooking at Amazon on the monthly chart
If you want to know what parabolic looks like, here is a great example.
Internal indicators:
* RSI heavily over bought and creating bearish divergence
* W%R very over bought and embedded
* Histogram has made a Lower Low that hasn't resolved itself yet and also creating bearish divergence
* OBV is still up and healthy due to the amount of money being poured into this asset.
* Many monthly gaps down in price that still are yet to be filled in
* VPVR is extreme running on single ticks ie not a lot of volume was traded on the move up
* Fib study done off the entire range
My opinion:
Just remember that the top still hasn't been put in yet, so this could still run higher. This is just a reminder that this asset is very over bought and people should be thinking twice about taking a long setups or investing in it long term. From the bottom of the range to the top AMZN has done approximately 18,000% (let that sink in) without a healthy retrace. We also have to take into consideration that AMZN has been in a range for 80% of its existence and has now been trending upwards for 20% of the time. (Investopedia) 80-20 Rule-
The 80-20 rule says markets trend about 20% of the time and spends the other 80% grinding through trading ranges, pullbacks, and other counter-trend action that tests boundaries. Price rate of change rises in trends, attracting the trend trader and falls in trading ranges, attracting the swing trader.
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Also don't forget to "plan your trade and trade your plan"
RUT wave B Rally facing SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE RUT wave (B) rally on-going moving towards the underside of a 4 decade support-turned resistance at 1432-1542. If this is the case, bulls need to get a move on to keep the motive-looking effort going. Will the coming bear market continue this trend and see bear markets in both as US debt is shunned by global central banks as a store of value?
Russell 2000 IWM Cup & Handle + Ascending ChannelAs posted in my previous idea, the Russell 2000 was at strong resistance and if we closed above, we should have a bullish bias until we see a topping reversal pattern. We did close above that resistance and even retested the 50 day moving average, so it is looking bullish for now.
The price has also broken to the top of a cup and handle pattern however we have not had a retest, yet.
The price is also currently at the top of an ascending channel. The price may find some resistance here and go back to retest the cup and handle breakout. If the breakout holds, that gives us a target of ~154.
There is a similar cup and handle pattern of SPY which is also included in my related ideas below.
Stocks Peaked 20 Years Ago. US Perma-Bulls are Chasing a BubbleIn nominal terms, US stocks have gone higher and higher over the last 20 and 30 years. This is priced in US Dollars.
Priced in terms of real money, stable money, the US stock markets and the US real economic growth peaked 20 years ago.
Over the last 20 years we've printed a crap-ton of money to paper over the losses and make ourselves feel richer, but it's all been an illusion. A money printing fueled bubble.
And the most recent cycle peaked in September of 2018, when the Russell first entered into a bear market and when the gold bull left the train station. In terms of what's happening right now: The Russell is sitting at the top end of its range right underneath major resistance. Without big stock buybacks driving the market there won't be enough buying power to send it to new highs.
The Fed can print as much money as it wants but it can't stop a massive global shock. Money velocity is at ZERO. Doesn't matter how much money you print, you can't fix a solvency problem with more liquidity. You can only buy yourself short slivers of time.
Its only a matter of time before economy gravity is respected and the global markets, including the US equities, get absolutely cratered.
Russell 2000: Will Resistance Prove True? Trump's PriceIn technical analysis, it is said that "past support = future resistance." Looking at a chart of the Russell 2000, we see there is a level of resistance that marks the date of Donald Trump's election. This lines up with a level of resistance.
Will it hold?
If it holds, then will the Russell 2000 see lower prices in the weeks to come?
Some say that the bottom is in. Of course, I have no idea.
Daily Review: ETH, IWM, and SPYNo fireworks followed the close as there was little follow through on the gap up this morning in U.S. markets. The cryptocurrency markets, on the other hand experienced some relief led by Ethereum and that is where we begin.
Here is a 4-hour chart of ETH/USD. As in stands, Ethereum is within a rising wedge patter. If you follow Elliott wave, this type of wedge may be categorized as an ending diagonal due to the overlapping of waves.
The month of April has been about all markets being in lock step. The chart below is the correlation coefficient of Ethereum and the SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. With resistance approaching for Ethereum could cryptocurrency give us a heads up when U.S. markets top?
Below is a chart of the IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF. Unlike Ethereum, the IWM has not broken out yet. Though, I think it may be close. Since April 13, the IWM has been consolidating in a bull flag pattern with a measured target of $128.59. End of week rally incoming?
Below is a 1-hour chart of SPY. The at the closing bell the one-hour chart presented with a bearish shooting star. Any reversal at the open tomorrow may be worth buying with stops at $272.14, which marks yesterday's low. If the it is taken out, it would invalidate continuation to the upside in my view.
The broad markets have been in lock step for what seems to be the entire month of April. As long as this pattern continues we can continue to lean on market leaders such as Ethereum as an indicator of the impending end of this historic rally.
Russell 2000 IWM hitting strong resistanceThis is a simple analysis of the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Today IWM filled the gap from the March 11th drop and bounced off resistance perfectly. Until Russell is able to overcome this resistance and use it as support, assume it will drop from here.
If I had to guess a direction, I think the odds of it going down are better than it going up, but I'm not a fortune teller. I only look for areas of opportunity where risk:reward is in my favor.
Are you ready for a PUMP & DUMP ? (Russell 2000)Small caps looking a lot like Ethereum.
Everyone tried to count 5 waves up but then another wave comes into the market and trolls all the early bears.
Over 66% of people think we will go into a GREAT DEPRESSION 2.0, And trust me we will but not quite yet.
Many stocks haven't made topping patterns & others are painting false tops.
I am bullish.
Stay profitable
- Dalin Anderson
RTY - e-mini Russell2000 main S/R levelsHello traders,
Description of the analysis:
I have identified important s/r levels that the market should respect and respond to. Currently, the market is undergoing rotations with possible declines as the VIX index is still in extreme bands.
Be careful to trade and invest sparingly!
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (700 000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob
Russell 2000 - ShortThe stimulus bill has been passed and loans will begin to be allocated into the economy. The goal of this money is to keep business alive, but there are no clear guidelines on how this stimulus will be rolled out.
After the current bounce (my assumption), the sellers are back. Prior to the corona virus, the Russell was already showing signs of weakness.
As the virus continues to spread, my view is that the stimulus won't do much until businesses are able to open back up.
Equity Markets showing Reversal on the 4 Hour?First off is the Nikkei 225. We had a break out earlier today which also confirmed a head and shoulders bottoming pattern. The lower high and lower lows began to exhaust. We are now awaiting for our first higher low swing here to confirm this uptrend.
Second is the German Dax. We had our breakout, and are now approaching the major 10,000 level. From here, would like to see 10,000 tested before a pullback and then a breakout creating a head and shoulders pattern and giving us a higher low to confirm an uptrend.
The Russell 2000 is close to the Dax set up. We are watching for this breakout. Similar to the Dax in a way that we would like to see a move higher before a pullback and then a head and shoulders confirmation breakout. The Russell may also be a leading indicator on what we will see with the larger US equities.