Russell Consolidando / A Lateral RussellEste índice, una lupa muy importante a 2000 Pequeñas Empresas que determinan la verdadera salud económica de USA, se encuentra en un rango de vital impulso pero el que ahora solo ha consolidado.
Su equilibrio de como iban las cosas antes del virus, estaba en 1700 pts. Debe acercarse en el mediano plazo y consolidar un poco más arriba para que la barrera psicológica que hasta ahora Dow Jones, SP y Nasdaq han logrado, complementen la continuidad al alza.
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This is a fundamental index, it is a macro picture of small companies in USA, these companies tell you more about employment data, bankruptcy, etc, with a microscope. The index must consolidate at this area (1500 aprox) and take another jump to 1700 points at least in a mid term, joining the sentiment with Dow Jones, SP and Nasdaq.
Russell2000
RTY's Time to Shine 7/24/2020The RTY at the 4 hour view. Tech shares are finally getting corrected by institutions. Thank God. The NQ was seriously overextended and bloated.
While tech and biotech will be going ultimately sideways for the rest of the summer, this is a great moment for non-tech sectors to grow from the Distribution Cycle.
RTY is filled with non-tech sectors. Investors are flocking for dividend stocks which the RTY is loaded with them. RTY will soon be my favorite index to long and the NQ will be my index to short from at this rate.
The question is: will the RTY fill that giant gap below or make another run for 1500+?
Time is running out for Russell 2000! $IWMRussell 2000 still has a decent amount of momentum on the H1 and Day time frames, but it is decision time next week into the FOMC statement and press conference. It is time to decide if we obey election year seasonality (and get an emergency PUA extension next week likely) or fall into mid August.
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SPY Analysis and Prediction using VIX comparison As we saw today for the first time in a while, a long-overdue increase in VIX (up 7.24% on the day) and a red day for SPY (-1.19%, down -$3.90) the question is now what will happen? In my opinion, as you can see on the chart - once VIX starts to correct and gain momentum and move upwards, due to the countercyclical relationship VIX has with the S&P500, in my opinion, will create the long-overdue correction on this overstretched, bubbled in market. The "W" shape confirmation right below the blue horizontal line I placed shows the last time VIX was low and once it confirmed with the W shape upwards you can see the devasting impact it had on the price of SPY and the market itself. I believe VIX has begun and will continue to move upwards while SPY will correct and could potentially see some serious price reduction. Throw in the collapse of big tech companies (were mostly all extremely overvalued for the current state of our country and life itself) I think this correction was overdue and that investors need to tread cautiously. I have marked my price target zone with the rectangle on the right side using the past history of SPY and its movement for further explanation.
RTY at a Crossroads 7/21/2020This is RTY at the 4 hour view.
RTY is at a crossroads. It has a gap below that calling and pulling it down to fill it. At the same time, institutions are selling tech stocks and allocating that money to financials, transportation, and energy.
My plan is to wait for RTY to fill the gap or pullback first. The next upside target for RTY is 1500+. I don't want to end up chasing the RTY.
RTY Possible Bull Flag 7/20/2020I'm waiting for RTY to fill that gap. With big tech earnings this week and next week, I figured that this may be an excuse for transportation and financials to pull back.
It seems that RTY is bull flagging instead at the 4 hour. I asked the question: will the RTY fill the gap first then run for 1500+? Or will RTY run for 1500+ first then fill the gap later?
It's looking to be the latter so far. I hope I'm wrong on this. I would love to ride the bounce up.
RTY Channel 7/18/2020This is the RTY at the 4 hour.
Which will the RTY do first? Fill the gap below or breakout to reach 1500?
The NQ has entered into a distribution phase. Tech stocks are going down and the money is heading to the non-tech stocks like financials and transportation. That's the RTY's bread of butter.
RTY may be getting reach for another surge. The question is: will it fill the gap first or go for 1500?
Personally, I would be happy to buy RTY at the 1420's.
July 18 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
S&P $3,200 Balance; February Gap; Nasdaq Weakness, Russell and Dow Strength.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices balanced higher last week, evidenced by the responsive, tight trading range.
Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 gapped higher, outside of a prior balance area, but failed to continue, rotating back into the prior week’s range. Tuesday’s session continued Monday’s selling activity, but reversed just short of the prior balance area low.
After news that Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine produced antibodies, Wednesday’s session saw prices pushing higher, gapping beyond Tuesday’s range. Buyers attempted to burst through the resting liquidity at $3,230, but failed with prices later following the Nasdaq’s relative weakness lower to close the overnight gap. After some mixed economic data, Thursday's session was dominated by responsive activity, balancing out near Wednesday’s v-bottom low, with sellers lacking conviction the most via the minimal excess low. Alongside monthly options expiry, Friday’s session continued Thursday’s tone with the intraday trading range remaining tight and responsive.
Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are showing signs of relative weakness, while other sectors, such as industrials, energy, and financials are rotating higher off recent support.
Overall, the market is in a 3-day balance that it’s likely to break, come next week. Positive news regarding a vaccine, earnings, and stimulus may help further squeeze shorts as we look to fill the gap above, left from late February.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Earnings; Existing-Home Sales; New-Home Sales; Initial Claims. tmsnrt.rs
Fundamental:
Airline industry demand projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. bit.ly AMEX:JETS
Travel industry seeks government assistance, tax breaks to spur trips. reut.rs
Rocket Companies expects profit to surge ahead of the U.S. IPO. reut.rs
Canadian wholesale trade posts largest jump in 17 years. reut.rs
Flight to suburbs boosts homebuilding as consumer sentiment fades. reut.rs
Europe meets on Recovery and Resilience Facility agreement. bit.ly
60% or large firms with sales over $2 billion expect growth to accelerate. bit.ly
The U.S. ended Hong Kong’s special status to punish China. bloom.bg
Applications for new home purchases rose 54.1% from a year ago. bit.ly
Options on the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 to arrive August, 31. bit.ly
84% of PPP loan recipients will exhaust funding by the first week of August. bit.ly
63% of small business owners say less than 75% of their revenue has returned. bit.ly
$64 billion invested in North American startups, down 10% year-to-date. bit.ly
Nasdaq optimism hits dangerous levels as tech becomes an attractive hedge. bit.ly
$40-per-barrel not a sufficient clearing price for leveraged shale producers. bit.ly
China bank lending hits record $1.72 trillion in first half after solid June. reut.rs
Dominion Energy Inc (NYSE: D) to sell gas assets, cancel pipeline. bit.ly NYSE:D
U.S. withdraws some underwriting requirements, a positive for payday lenders. bit.ly
Increase in transactions suggests a rebound in Russia’s economy. bit.ly
Acquisition of National General increases Allstate Corp’s (NYSE: ALL) leverage. bit.ly NYSE:ALL
U.K. actions to buoy employment and businesses, mitigate prolonged shock. bit.ly
Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) vaccine elicited coronavirus antibodies. bloom.bg NASDAQ:MRNA
Corporate credit quality improved in the week ending July 15. bit.ly
U.S. and China tech cold war could cost the sector more than $3.5 trillion. bit.ly
Canada is poaching tech talent from the U.S. via Express Entry program. bit.ly
China shows economic recovery with 3.2% GDP growth in Q2. bit.ly
U.S. manufacturing increased for the second month, by 5.4%. on.wsj.com
The jobs market is poised to reverse May and June gains. bit.ly
Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) made less money despite adding assets. bit.ly NYSE:SCHW
Coronavirus surge sparks worries over renewed lockdowns, global fuel demand. reut.rs
China’s bull run could signal a Wall Street stampede. bit.ly
Cuomo confirms New York City will enter the final phase of reopening Monday. on.mktw.net
Brazil to allow citizens to withdraw from pension funds early. reut.rs
Ally Financial Inc (NYSE: ALLY) delinquencies, charge-offs of auto loans improve. on.wsj.com NYSE:ALLY
Hospitals may be falsely labeling COVID-19 coronavirus deaths. bit.ly
Underwriting to come down according to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). bloom.bg NYSE:JPM
Copper-to-gold ratio suggests rates should be higher than they currently are. bloom.bg
Sentiment: 30.8% Bullish, 23.8% Neutral, 45.4% Bearish as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,257,721,540 as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 45.8% as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
Russell 2000 (RTY):
Gold (GC):
Crude Oil (CL):
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Russel 2000 Elliotwave Count The Russel 2000 is probably exhibiting one of the clearest Elliotwave counts of all US Indices.
For one we can see a very clearly impulsive 5-wave drop from June 8th highs to June 15th lows.
Next we see a triangle in the middle of the retracement higher since which is a classic middle-of-retracement move.
Triangles are patterns prior to final ending wave...either as a Wave 4 (prior to wave 5) or as a wave B in the middle of an A-B-C 3-wave retracement.
In this case, we count a 5-wave wave A of the corrective A-B-C ---- then the 5 wave middle B triangle pattern (which I mentioned above) and since then the final wave C of the ABC shows 5 wave up.
Since we see a potential 5-wave leading diagonal and a 3 wave retracement which is potentially pointing to the beginning of the next massive wave down - similar to what happened between June 8 and 15.
The triangle pattern in the corrective pattern is what is very clear to me here and which points to the retracement since the June 15th low being a corrective pattern.
If this is indeed correct then the Bearish implications should carry over into the Dow and S&P.
Cheers!
Cyrus
RTY Breakout 7/15/2020Investors and traders are leaving tech to go for better value stocks: financials and transportation.
RTY rallied big time due to this shift in breadth. I am expecting a small pullback for RTY. However, from the looks of it, financials and transportation have entered into an uptrend channel.
If you're going to short, short very, very carefully. It's probably safer to long from major supports. Stock breadth is strengthening. Liquidity is strengthening. That is all pretty bullish. RTY is known for bouncing unexpectedly.
IWM - Russell Bull Trap?It seems unlikely to me that the Russell will find support here and move towards 158. Betting that this is a bull trap and we see a large move downwards towards $125 in July, with the Russell capturing the initial wave of negative news surrounding re-closures and disappointing earnings.
Entry: $141
Target: $125
RTY in a BoxThis is RTY at the 4 hour view. I just said screw it with the channels for now until RTY makes up its mind.
For now, RTY is stuck in a volatility box. The dotted lines are tier I support/resistance. The dashed lines are tier II support/resistance.
You can swing trade while the price goes back and forth. At URTY/SRTY, that's still a 3-7% profit per day.
The fate of RTY really rests on the decision that XLF/FAS and XTN/IYT make. Financials and transportation make a bull market. Why? Because every business needs a bank account and ways to ship/receive products. Even tech needs its semiconductors and a bank for venture capital.
RTY Channel 7/13/2020RTY broke below its upward channel again. It looks like the downward channel is taking over.
It seems the price action is coordinating with the downward channel's buy and sell zones. Banks' earnings are tomorrow. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will set the tone for earnings season.
If RTY is indeed in the downward channel, then look to short the bounces. If RTY closes a day or two below 1354, then it's going to get ugly. That's why the buy zone is so large compared the sell zone.
The XLF/FAS and XTN/IYT will determine the fate of the RTY. If both cannot sustain a rally, the RTY will become my favorite short target.
IWM giving heads up of an implosionThe IWM ETF is the Russell2000 ETF, and I use it as a proxy of market internal breath. Case in point, we have a runaway Nasdaq (Technology sector) with a stalling S&P500. The small and mid caps need to be the internal support for this tech rally to continue else it breaks down from the internal infrastructure and implodes.
Exactly the heads up seen here...
The IWM Daily chart has not been able to get a higher high, but instead gapped down from the last lower high, at the top of a range (orange box). Yesterday, it tested the trend line support, and in doing so, turned the MACD far enough to register a down crossover. In a bounce off the trendline, it also bounced off the 55EMA, and appears to breakdown over he next couple of trading days.
Technically, this chart is bearish, and tells of the internal implosion starting to happen.
The Nasdaq rally is limited days to go... this is giving us a heads up.
July 5 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Low-Volume Above $3,150; $3,200 Balance; Tech Overextension; Weakness In Financials, Energy.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices one time framed higher last week, evidenced by the higher highs and lows on the daily time frame, and closed the week off near a resistive low-volume area.
Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 established a higher low, above the year-to-date volume weighted average price, and squeezed on good delta, through resting liquidity at and above $3,020.
After Tuesday’s challenge higher, the S&P retested $3,100, a high-volume area, and balanced Wednesday, building value and acceptance of $3,100 as evidenced by the responsive participation intra-day.
On Thursday, the U.S. economy added greater than expected payrolls, driving prices higher at the open, before establishing excess and fading to close the gap below.
Overall, though extended, the market is at an important technical level. Breaking further into the prior low-volume resistance would point to a change in sentiment, quashing the initiative activity that drove prices lower in the first place.
Looking beyond the broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are extended while relatively weak sectors, such as energy and financials, suggest bigger selling may be around the corner. For a continuation higher, buyers must step up on dips and increase participation in search of higher prices, helping ensure value follows closely behind.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Non-Manufacturing Activity; Final Composite And Services PMI; Initial Claims; Wholesale Inventory; PPI; Consumer Credit; JOLTS.
Fundamental:
The Federal Reserve destroyed price discovery and delayed the inevitable. yhoo.it
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) placed final part orders for its 747 jumbo jets. fxn.ws NYSE:BA
General Motors Company’s (NYSE: GM) China quarterly sales dropped 5%. fxn.ws NYSE:GM
Global GDP to remain below pre-virus levels through most of next year. bit.ly
The Federal Reserve looks to Australia’s central bank for rate strategy. on.wsj.com
Airbus SE (OTC: EADSY) close to slashing jobs as output may drop 40%. reut.rs OTC:EADSY
Democratic nominee Joe Biden to end most of President Trump’s tax cuts. cnb.cx
Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS.A) to cut asset values by up to $22 billion. reut.rs NYSE:RDS.A
Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) to buy Mirror for $500 million. bit.ly NASDAQ:LULU
By year end, corporate earnings may recover from the pandemic slump. bit.ly
Key innovation principles for delivering net-zero emissions, per the IEA. bit.ly
Laying out the worst-case scenario, a collapse of the financial system. bit.ly
Q2 projections are miserable as average S&P 500 earnings may decline up to 45%. bit.ly
The U.S. added 4.8M payrolls, while the unemployment rate shrunk to 11.1%. bit.ly
Global refinery utilisation rates in 2021-2024 may be 3% lower relative to 2019. reut.rs
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat analyst estimates for Q2 vehicle deliveries. reut.rs NASDAQ:TSLA
Brazilian regulators halt Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) payments service. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB
Large U.S. banks pass the Fed's stress test, but must submit new capital plans. bit.ly AMEX:XLF
ASEAN response mitigated economic damage, but unlikely to offset credit risks. bit.ly
Sentiment: 22.2% Bullish, 32.0% Neutral, 45.9% Bearish as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,223,157,668 as of 7/2/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 46% as of 7/2/2020. bit.ly
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ
Russell 2000 (RTY): TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM
Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD
Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL
Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
RUT Triangle Pattern for a pending Wave (C) pullback The same predicament exist in the RUT as the SPX. RUT is forming a triangle pattern that could unfold into wave (C) corrective wave lower. The immediate pullback should take us back into 1250 downside target facing significant resistance ahead at 1542. One more push down into 1250 before we close out our bearish biased butterfly spreads.
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX BEAR FLAG SHORTBear Flags are Channel Ranges and they are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Bear Flag chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend (Short).
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
Whatever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.