OIL GOLD RUSSEL DXY6.5.20 Multiple markets. Examples of how taking price action into account saves money.
Russell2000
RUT 2nd Half Scale in RUT us forming an extended wave v that points the wave (v) upside target of 161.8% retracement at 1430 level. Wave v must hold at 1542 to the the Corrective Flat Pattern valid. Expect this terminal rally into our final resistance zone before the decline starts.
We are looking to scale in with 2nd half of bear put butterfly. For now, the 1481 should offer massive resistance that setups for a 10% decline. New Butterfly Spread 1330/1150/1030 Put Debit Butterfly expiring Aug 31st 2020.
SPX / DJI / NDX / RUT (Road to new highs?)US stock indices. Road to new highs?
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IWM Shorts Covered (Risk-free) 20:50:09 (UTC) Thu May 28, 2020Will remain open with stoploss at breakeven. My short position has been covered.
20:50:09 (UTC)
Thu May 28, 2020
SPX - lock in your profitRisk vs Reward. Some sort of top forming. Yes, it could go higher but it's about Risk vs Reward. I am taking profit here and accumulating some short positions.
US Tech stocks lagging in recent trade The Nasdaq was relatively weak yesterday compared to most stock indices with the Nasdaq:Russell 2000 (US small caps) ratio drifting towards it's lowest level in 2 1/2 months.
This could be seen as logical as lockdowns ease and the relative advantage of big tech vs the rest is eroded somewhat.
No trade here for me as a spread but worth watching if trading either the Nasdaq or Russell 2000 outright
#IXIC ANALYSIS.. BE CAREFUL!.. We see a huge bearish divergence in monthly chart of #IXIC.. Be careful about indices.. I firmly believe that we will see a strong wave of sales in the global indices.. Big Crash is coming.. Markets will become very interesting after 4,5 months, we will wait and see..
Please do your own due diligence when it comes to trading.. Invest at your own risk..
I wish you all the best..
Russell 2000 (Real US economy) vs. Nasdaq (Tech stocks)Easier to explain S&P 500 rising so much with massive job losses when compare with Nasdaq Comp and Russell 2000
RUT Wave Count Update (Still Keep our -ve Delta Flies) RUT loosing momentum on current levels, our Aug 31st flies are moving against us but the wave count is still valid, so we're looking to scale in 2nd half with more -ve delta flies if RUT continues this extended move higher.
Elliott Wave View:Russell 2000 (RTY) Reaching Short Term SupportAs a larger context, the rally in Russell 2000 (RTY) from 3.19.2020 low took the form of an impulsive structure. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 1180.3 and wave (2) pullback ended at 1029.7. Index then resumed higher in wave (3) and ended at 1265.6 and wave (4) pullback ended at 1148.5. The final leg wave (5) ended at 1374. This move also completed wave ((1)) in higher degree and ended cycle from 3.19.2020 low. Wave ((2)) pullback is in progress to correct cycle from 3.19.2020 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the Index turns higher again.
The 1 hour chart below shows the correction in wave ((2)). The internal subdivision is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((1)) high at 1374, wave (A) ended at 1220.1 as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave 1 of (A) ended at 1353.6, wave 2 of (A) ended at 1370.60, wave 3 of (A) ended at 1236.5, wave 4 of (A) ended at 1258.80, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 1220.10.
Up from there, wave (B) bounce ended at 1341.6 as a zigzag in lesser degree. Wave A of (B) ended at 1303.7, wave B of (B) ended at 1245.6, and wave C of (B) ended at 1341.70. Wave (C) is now in progress as 5 waves impulse and can see more downside to reach 1150 - 1187 area. This is the 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of (A)-(B). From this area, Index may see buyers for more upside or 3 waves bounce at least.
RUT2k Short Entry (Updated) 20:01:24 (UTC) Wed May 13, 2020See previous trade entry prior to the New York open this morning.
20:01:51 (UTC)
Wed May 13, 2020
Prediction for E-mini index futures from 11 may 2020this is the prediction of how index futures may go for next week starting 11 May 2020
as you can see there are perfect elliot impulse wave (12345) then correction wave ( ABC )
we are going to phase C this week
so be prepare (to short trade?) !!!
RUT signficant resistance ahead The same predicament exists in the RUT as the SPX. Is this 5-wave impulse currently labeled as wave (B) actually all of higher degree wave (2)? A move back below 1200 suggest the shown count is correct. We are looking for a completion of wave C with a decline lower towards 1000.
Russell 2000 Index, Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For April 27, 20Technical Analysis and Outlook
The small-cap Russell 2000 index gained 2.2% for the week. The index hit our uptrend movement projection to Inner Index Rally $1,365 and Key Res $1,350 , respectively, on April 29th. The short term downside support is tapped at Mean Sup $1,250 and prone to go down to Mean Sup $1,185 before thrusting the retest of the Key Res $1,360 .
Divergence in US indicesThe 200 Moving average is commonly used as an indicator of bull or bear stance by the hedge funds, analysts and investment banks.
If price action stays above 200 MA, it is bullish and if below 200 MA, then it is bearish.
In this chart, we can see clearly that only Nasdaq is currently above it while DJIA and Russell 2000 are still bearish. SPX500 recently closed above the 200 MA only to come tumbling down last Friday.
I post a chart last week on how certain US stocks are leading the SPX500 and may not reflect the actual stock market.
Will Nasdaq follow the other US indices and fall below the 200 MA soon ? Or will it lead the rest and charge higher ?
The obvious one is the Russell 2000 with many of the small cap companies facing a tough time coping with the low to zero revenue and still needing to cough out expenses like wages, operating costs, etc.
I expect Q2 results to be worse than Q1 and that may provides us with clearer signals on the stock market thereafter.
I will be watching this chart closely and update accordingly.
AMZNLooking at Amazon on the monthly chart
If you want to know what parabolic looks like, here is a great example.
Internal indicators:
* RSI heavily over bought and creating bearish divergence
* W%R very over bought and embedded
* Histogram has made a Lower Low that hasn't resolved itself yet and also creating bearish divergence
* OBV is still up and healthy due to the amount of money being poured into this asset.
* Many monthly gaps down in price that still are yet to be filled in
* VPVR is extreme running on single ticks ie not a lot of volume was traded on the move up
* Fib study done off the entire range
My opinion:
Just remember that the top still hasn't been put in yet, so this could still run higher. This is just a reminder that this asset is very over bought and people should be thinking twice about taking a long setups or investing in it long term. From the bottom of the range to the top AMZN has done approximately 18,000% (let that sink in) without a healthy retrace. We also have to take into consideration that AMZN has been in a range for 80% of its existence and has now been trending upwards for 20% of the time. (Investopedia) 80-20 Rule-
The 80-20 rule says markets trend about 20% of the time and spends the other 80% grinding through trading ranges, pullbacks, and other counter-trend action that tests boundaries. Price rate of change rises in trends, attracting the trend trader and falls in trading ranges, attracting the swing trader.
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RUT wave B Rally facing SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE RUT wave (B) rally on-going moving towards the underside of a 4 decade support-turned resistance at 1432-1542. If this is the case, bulls need to get a move on to keep the motive-looking effort going. Will the coming bear market continue this trend and see bear markets in both as US debt is shunned by global central banks as a store of value?
US2000 Shot term Price - one Fib for clarity Levels, and price projections, lets see can we hold it, for new highs, or we make a new low. :)
Russell 2000 IWM Cup & Handle + Ascending ChannelAs posted in my previous idea, the Russell 2000 was at strong resistance and if we closed above, we should have a bullish bias until we see a topping reversal pattern. We did close above that resistance and even retested the 50 day moving average, so it is looking bullish for now.
The price has also broken to the top of a cup and handle pattern however we have not had a retest, yet.
The price is also currently at the top of an ascending channel. The price may find some resistance here and go back to retest the cup and handle breakout. If the breakout holds, that gives us a target of ~154.
There is a similar cup and handle pattern of SPY which is also included in my related ideas below.
