Russell is likely to follow SPX After December selloff, SPX is at all time highs where Russell is clearly lagging. I think the reason is that after panic investors are now biased to buy big company stocks rather than small and risky ones. I think Russell will catch up with SPX if (!) this performance in SPX will continue.
Russell2000
RTY1!, Keep Knocking its Major ResistanceThe Russell 2000, a true indicator of the broader market strength, is keep testing its major resistance. The original idea that it could offer a better upside reward is still intact. Usually, a support or resistance eventually gives up after multiple testes.
In case of the successful breakout the released energy would propel the market - there will be a lot of chasers who is watching it and wait for confirmation. It would also help the S&P 500 to move higher or at least to remain at the higher prices.
In case of a false breakout, things could turn ugly for the buyers.
Watch the index for a great opportunity unfold. If you don't trade futures look at the IWM ETF.
04/28/2019
RTY1!, All Eyes on Small CapsHere is a dissected daily chart of Russell 2000 futures with important levels to watch. As of today, the index remains the weakest among the others. Last week it tested an important trend line but managed to close above it. The index has an interesting behavior that could be used to trader's advantage. For example, it may be in a catch up mode and trend well while the rest of the indices are aimlessly chopping or it may show a hint where the rest of the indices will be heading.
Say, as an investor where do I put my money to work if I can see the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are at all time highs? The Russell is far from the all time highs and has plenty of upside potential.
I drew a few projected areas above and beyond the current action. In case the prices break above that would be a nice upside trend to fill the projected area. In case of a breakdown of the trend line the price can fill the existing area and still find enough buyers to remain inside.
Let's watch the price development next week. Being close to the upper edge of the existing balance the upside potential is there. The only warning sign is a notable negative divergence.
04/21/2019
Complex Inverse Head & Shoulders on the IWM. Could move higher.IWM is currently with a complex inverse head and shoulders pattern, and we are now sitting just below the neckline. It is trading above the 50/100/200 day moving averages, and it looks like a golden cross (50 MA crossing the 200 MA) may occur soon as well. Setup looks good, but it needs to break above the flat line of resistance around $158.60 to get moving. I would either like to see a strong break-out into a strong rally higher, or to see a break-out above the neckline into a pull-back to retest the neckline as new support, ideally confirming the S/R flip before further consolidating and then moving higher. I am watching $164.20, $170.00, and $173.50 as possible resistance area's based on previous price action.
Moving average guide (All daily for this post):
50 day moving average in Green.
100 day moving average in Yellow.
200 day moving average in Red.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
High Probability Intraday Setup for E-MINI RUSSELL 2000 futuresThe following are trades setup ideas in 15 mins chart for E-MINI RUSSELL 2000 futures
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Russell 2000: No man's land at the moment.RUT is practically neutral at the moment as the 1D Channel Down (RSI = 46.549, Highs/Lows = -4.0275, B/BP = -30.2779) keeps the index bearish while 1W (excluding the early Dec - late Jan extreme) supports it (RSI= 49.965, Highs/Lows = 12.4371) from a greater fall. So far Russell is a no-action asset but we are willing to go long on the upward break-out of the 1D Channel Down. TP = 1,600 and 1,620 in extension.
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Tracking 1480-1475 in Russell..From the previous idea (see attached: "Russel leading the consolidation pack") you will know that Russell in many ways has been acting as a leading indicator for US Equities.
This is interesting timingwise, especially when the break to new highs in S&P and NQ occurred was not comparable in Russell. So here we are now only needing to track the 1480-1475 region. This is the 38.2% retrace and we 'know' in advance is the level bulls would want to turn for continuation.
Should we break lower then it will really knock confidence and imply we are starting to show early signs of an impulsive selloff. This will also bring into question the more meaningful top.
Tracking it very closely with Mueller cleared...Best of luck all and thanks for the support!
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) Sends Out Bearish Signal, Crash...The Russell 2000 Index, which tends to move before the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has broken below support with strength.
On the chart above we can see that the RUT broke through EMA50 and EMA100 like hot butter. This can lead to a retrace as far down as 0.618 Fib. just to start, it can go lower.
The MACD is entering the bearish zone with plenty of room left for more down.
The RSI is also looking extremely bearish.
If this index is an indication of how the conventional markets will move then prepare for some strong bearish action in the weeks ahead.
This quick analysis is shared as a follow up to my SPX analysis here:
This is just a friendly reminder.
Thanks a lot for reading and your continued support.
Remember to hit like.
Namaste.
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) Sends Out Bearish Signal, Crash...The Russell 2000 Index, which tends to move before the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has broken below support with strength.
On the chart above we can see that the RUT broke through EMA50 and EMA100 like hot butter. This can lead to a retrace as far down as 0.618 Fib. just to start, it can go lower.
The MACD is entering the bearish zone with plenty of room left for more down.
The RSI is also looking extremely bearish.
If this index is an indication of how the conventional markets will move then prepare for some strong bearish action in the weeks ahead.
This quick analysis is shared as a follow up to my SPX analysis here:
This is just a friendly reminder.
Thanks a lot for reading and your continued support.
Remember to hit like.
Namaste.
$RUT $SPY Small Caps? - Loosing Steam or Taking a Breather?Small cap equities have had a fantastic run since the beginning of 2019, so much so that the asset class is up 12.72% year-to-date. However, the asset class has been loosing a little bit of luster as of late, especially in relation to their large cap counterparts.
Since mid-February 2019, the price ratio between small cap and large cap equities (RUT/SPY as a proxy) hit its 200-day moving average and failed to breakthrough, and in turn, has been falling since. In addition, its Smart Money Indicator reading shows it is 1.84, well of its highs of 1.98 as seen earlier in the year, indicating that this trend has some legs to stand on.
Thus, this lends credence to the fact that global investors have been rotating out of small cap stocks and into large cap stocks.
We believe that this trend is due to two reasons:
1) Improving Trade Deal Prospects Between the US and China - As talks of a trade deal continue to progress well between the two nations, investors have begun to move money back into large cap sectors and names that will greatly benefit from the reduction, or even removal, of trade barriers between the US and China. This can been in the fact that trade sensitive sectors such as technology (up 16.67%) and industrials (14.44%) have been some of the top performing sectors year to date.
2) Slowing Global Economy - With the current economic expansion growing tired and weary, from a factor perspective, investors have been moving money out of riskier segments of the equity market and into “safer” areas such as large cap stocks, companies with stable earnings growth, value stocks, and firms with lower betas in relation to the general market. Investors have realized, and rightfully so, that though this recent run in the markets has been solid, the macroeconomic backdrop continues to be an area of concern.
Overall, though we think that small caps still have some to run, investors should take heed over the fact that money is moving out of this segment of the equity market and into large cap equities. Furthermore investors should be cautious if this trend continues.
Russell 2000 futures weekly demand in control, long biasRussell 2000 futures is offering buy opportunities with weekly demand level around $1523 in control. There is nothing to stop price from rallying to Russell 2000 futures upper weekly supply zone around $1712.No shorts are allowed, only longs at new areas of demand. If you are trading other trading strategies or even options, you can use this Russell 2000 futures analysis as an extra point to support your longs. We do not use any kind of indicators, we do not need indicators to plan a trade using supply and demand imbalances but if you use them, this analysis can help you.You can use options to plan your trades, plain vanilla short term or longer term longs calls or bullish spreads to buy Russell 2000 futures. No shorts are allowed. Bullish bias.
Russell leading the consolidation pack?A quick update on the count for those following the index.
Nasdaq, S&P and Dow all starting to see some decent profit taking as we enter into resistance again. Here watching the Russell as there's a good chance the market has completed a 5 wave impulse move from the 16 lows.
The correction if the above assumption is right, means that this ABC retracement may have completed after we touched 1300 and we are now entering into a multi-month consolidation period. This will be a wide range, however, with plenty of opportunities on both sides of the pig.
Thanks all
A look at risk appetiteCommonly accepted risk barometers RUT and USD/JPY appear to be suggesting that risk on appetite is waning. Also, the daily gravestone the SPX printed at resistance looks ominous to me. My gut is telling me we break out and test ATHs over coming months but the charts are suggesting to me that we at least get a pullback from around these levels. The SPX and RUT both had a daily swing failure where they "looked above" and failed. I've noticed you do often see gravestone/shooting star candles even in bullish pushups at major resistance so I'm not betting everything on the look of 1 daily candle but they are often quite powerful.
That RUT trendline off that prior pennant/symm tri thing near the top could be telling. USD/JPY does have support around these levels so it's something to watch. Mueller report + March 29th Brexit dates could be market movers as well.
9 YEAR TOP, 18 YEAR TOP?It seems everyone is bearish on this market (including myself..) and for good reason. It looks like a diamond top.. or maybe even a broadening formation (i.e megaphone- that would have one more higher high just above 3000)..and with a drastic drop coming over the next couple of years.. But DO NOT dismiss other possibilities. If this is a 9 year cycle (mid) top, then where would that put an 18 year cycle top? Will we retrace massively or find a (9year)mid-cycle bottom and continue for a higher high in 2026? I think we need a deeper correction..I'm probably 70%+ leaning towards the bearish scenario of a large correction (red).. but consider that most people are wrong about where the market is going.. Where is that 18 year cycle top? Is it forming now or yet to be formed.. that's the quintillion dollar question.
Use the long term trend line for confirmation over the coming years.. and keep up with those moving averages.. sometimes the answer is written right on the chart.
A bridge too far...a price too highOver the last four trade sessions the market prices have pushed out of their average trade ranges and yesterday 3 of the four not only closed above their average trade ranges, but the high and the low of the day were above the average. Today the fourth followed suit. The primary markets are highly overbought at this time and will adjust themselves.
Historically this event generates a 3 - 5 % reversal of prices.
DJIA will adjust by 763 - 1271 points (between: 24676 - 24168)
SP500 will adjust by 81 - 136 points (between: 2643 - 2588)
NASDAQ will adjust by 222 - 370 points (between: 7188 - 7040)
RUSSELL 2000 will adjust by 45 - 76 points (between: 1479 - 1448)
Stock Rally Nearing The EndSince anticipating a bottom on Dec. 25, we have seen a significant and vicious bear market rally - enough to scare many bears and draw some bulls back in. I'm seeing some setups now that this rally is near the end, so I'm selling longs and will be opening shorts into any further rallies this week.
Here we have the Russel2000 where a significant breakout midpoint at 1348.7 suggests a reversal zone of 1445.4, which we barely tested today. Further supporting this reversal zone is a smaller midpoint (split between two strong red candles) which proved it's validity since it foreshadowed a swing low at 1295.6. The 361.8% extension of this swing lines up nicely with the 1445.4 reversal zone.
Please see my recent GBPAUD analysis for another example of how I try to tie multiple midpoints together for higher-probability trades.
Market wobble on possible trade agreement, I'm with the Bearhello, American and Chinese friends in TradingView, all the best to you guys and happy new year!
The market was floated, scoring some recovery on the good news that President Trump has twittered that the U.S. and China trade talks proceed well and likely reach a comprehensive agreement on disputed topics, like trade, IP protection, technology transfer, and so forth. Even I, as a Chinese, don't believe that any agreement will be able to alter the course of protectionism and state intervention in China. Many US stock investors share the same standpoint in SeekingAlpha. In addition to these troublesome disputes surrounding major economies, the slowing down of US economy should be sooner than most pundits expected, as shown by dropping real estate construction permits as a reliable leading indicator.
In terms of technical analysis, Nasdaq 100 moving high after Christmas, forming a classic rising wedge, which on this downtrend market is a bearish continuation structure. I'd expect that scenario 2 will play out in the coming days.
Good luck everybody in 2019, hope you guys can make a fortune by clutching tremendous trading opportunities in the bear market.
Russell2000 (RUT) Crash Incoming (30% Drop)Looking at the RUT chart, I can see that a strong drop will be coming, this can be around 25-35%, but it can vary depending on how the markets develop.
The last crash happened back in 2008 for a huge 60% drop. We can expect something similar to happen now as support is found on EMA200 (orange line).
The bearish divergence is clear once again, if you take a look at the MACD and RSI.
Other stocks and indexes are also crashing... It is clear that bad news are coming to the conventional markets... Time to move to crypto.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Preparing for a Huge Drop!
NASDAQ COMPOSITE (IXIC) To Continue Falling!
S&P 500 Going Lower (7%+ Drop)
Bank Of America (BAC) Will Drop Hard (90%+ Crash?!)
Make sure to share your valuable opinion in the comments section below.
Let us know what you think will happen in the years to come.
Namaste.