Russell leading the consolidation pack?A quick update on the count for those following the index.
Nasdaq, S&P and Dow all starting to see some decent profit taking as we enter into resistance again. Here watching the Russell as there's a good chance the market has completed a 5 wave impulse move from the 16 lows.
The correction if the above assumption is right, means that this ABC retracement may have completed after we touched 1300 and we are now entering into a multi-month consolidation period. This will be a wide range, however, with plenty of opportunities on both sides of the pig.
Thanks all
Russell2000
A look at risk appetiteCommonly accepted risk barometers RUT and USD/JPY appear to be suggesting that risk on appetite is waning. Also, the daily gravestone the SPX printed at resistance looks ominous to me. My gut is telling me we break out and test ATHs over coming months but the charts are suggesting to me that we at least get a pullback from around these levels. The SPX and RUT both had a daily swing failure where they "looked above" and failed. I've noticed you do often see gravestone/shooting star candles even in bullish pushups at major resistance so I'm not betting everything on the look of 1 daily candle but they are often quite powerful.
That RUT trendline off that prior pennant/symm tri thing near the top could be telling. USD/JPY does have support around these levels so it's something to watch. Mueller report + March 29th Brexit dates could be market movers as well.
9 YEAR TOP, 18 YEAR TOP?It seems everyone is bearish on this market (including myself..) and for good reason. It looks like a diamond top.. or maybe even a broadening formation (i.e megaphone- that would have one more higher high just above 3000)..and with a drastic drop coming over the next couple of years.. But DO NOT dismiss other possibilities. If this is a 9 year cycle (mid) top, then where would that put an 18 year cycle top? Will we retrace massively or find a (9year)mid-cycle bottom and continue for a higher high in 2026? I think we need a deeper correction..I'm probably 70%+ leaning towards the bearish scenario of a large correction (red).. but consider that most people are wrong about where the market is going.. Where is that 18 year cycle top? Is it forming now or yet to be formed.. that's the quintillion dollar question.
Use the long term trend line for confirmation over the coming years.. and keep up with those moving averages.. sometimes the answer is written right on the chart.
A bridge too far...a price too highOver the last four trade sessions the market prices have pushed out of their average trade ranges and yesterday 3 of the four not only closed above their average trade ranges, but the high and the low of the day were above the average. Today the fourth followed suit. The primary markets are highly overbought at this time and will adjust themselves.
Historically this event generates a 3 - 5 % reversal of prices.
DJIA will adjust by 763 - 1271 points (between: 24676 - 24168)
SP500 will adjust by 81 - 136 points (between: 2643 - 2588)
NASDAQ will adjust by 222 - 370 points (between: 7188 - 7040)
RUSSELL 2000 will adjust by 45 - 76 points (between: 1479 - 1448)
Stock Rally Nearing The EndSince anticipating a bottom on Dec. 25, we have seen a significant and vicious bear market rally - enough to scare many bears and draw some bulls back in. I'm seeing some setups now that this rally is near the end, so I'm selling longs and will be opening shorts into any further rallies this week.
Here we have the Russel2000 where a significant breakout midpoint at 1348.7 suggests a reversal zone of 1445.4, which we barely tested today. Further supporting this reversal zone is a smaller midpoint (split between two strong red candles) which proved it's validity since it foreshadowed a swing low at 1295.6. The 361.8% extension of this swing lines up nicely with the 1445.4 reversal zone.
Please see my recent GBPAUD analysis for another example of how I try to tie multiple midpoints together for higher-probability trades.
Market wobble on possible trade agreement, I'm with the Bearhello, American and Chinese friends in TradingView, all the best to you guys and happy new year!
The market was floated, scoring some recovery on the good news that President Trump has twittered that the U.S. and China trade talks proceed well and likely reach a comprehensive agreement on disputed topics, like trade, IP protection, technology transfer, and so forth. Even I, as a Chinese, don't believe that any agreement will be able to alter the course of protectionism and state intervention in China. Many US stock investors share the same standpoint in SeekingAlpha. In addition to these troublesome disputes surrounding major economies, the slowing down of US economy should be sooner than most pundits expected, as shown by dropping real estate construction permits as a reliable leading indicator.
In terms of technical analysis, Nasdaq 100 moving high after Christmas, forming a classic rising wedge, which on this downtrend market is a bearish continuation structure. I'd expect that scenario 2 will play out in the coming days.
Good luck everybody in 2019, hope you guys can make a fortune by clutching tremendous trading opportunities in the bear market.
Russell2000 (RUT) Crash Incoming (30% Drop)Looking at the RUT chart, I can see that a strong drop will be coming, this can be around 25-35%, but it can vary depending on how the markets develop.
The last crash happened back in 2008 for a huge 60% drop. We can expect something similar to happen now as support is found on EMA200 (orange line).
The bearish divergence is clear once again, if you take a look at the MACD and RSI.
Other stocks and indexes are also crashing... It is clear that bad news are coming to the conventional markets... Time to move to crypto.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Preparing for a Huge Drop!
NASDAQ COMPOSITE (IXIC) To Continue Falling!
S&P 500 Going Lower (7%+ Drop)
Bank Of America (BAC) Will Drop Hard (90%+ Crash?!)
Make sure to share your valuable opinion in the comments section below.
Let us know what you think will happen in the years to come.
Namaste.
RUT downtrend continuationIt is clearly not going to stop. Continuation pattern show a target well below 50% retracement level.
I draw Fib Levels from the previus time price hit the multiyear trend line. You see it bounced at 50%. During downtrend though, to rely on support levels is a very weak strategy. It is way better to observe price action once they hit one, to see how they react.
This is like a train almost 10 years long: The higher the speed, the harder is to stop it.
Big Weekend Gap Filling: Russel 2000The big Sunday night gap saw the Russel blow past my target and actually top out at the 127% extension of 1560 rather than the previously posted (linked) 1540 level.
Stock indeces are currently filling much of this major gap, in fact the Russel has already filled it while the S&P500 and DOW and especially the NASDAQ have seen more strength keeping their gaps unfilled for now. See below for an update on where I suspect this gap filling correction to end.
$US RUSSELL 2000 - SHORT SETUP - 10 POINTSNot much to say. Looking for a minor push to the downside which is about 10 points down into the 1528s.
For risk and money management purposes, always determine a max. of 2% risk on every trade.
For example on a $50,000 account, this would be equivalent to 1,25 Lots with an 80 pip stop loss.
Targets and closure of positions may be subject to alteration throughout the course of the trade. This is due to the ever-changing and unpredictable nature of the market.
This post is set to be used and serve as an example and in an educational manner and is not to be taken as direct investment advice.
Nov 20
Comment: no entry yet - price is still consolidating