Russell 2000: Buy opportunity on 1D.The index has bounced this week off the 1,458.00 Support which was the contact point on October - November 2018. This is a cyclical buy opportunity on 1D and an early long signal as 1D is still neutral (RSI = 44.642, ADX = 33.294, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). We are long on RTY targeting 1,590 (Resistance). If this bullish sequence later holds the 1,498.80 - 1,514.20 zone as a Support, we may be looking at the start of a strong bull run to the ATH and beyond.
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Russell2000
Russle 2000 ShortAlthough I strongly discourage the action of shorting in my personal strategy this doesn't keep me from speculating on the possible price fluctuation of the index. Viewing recent recessionary signals such as the inverted yield curve, raising tensions in the US-China relation as well as US-Mexican relations I've come to the conclusion that there might be something sketchy going on in the markets. Also noting the decision of Neil Woodford to close withdrawals from his fund I've come to the conclusion that there is rising anxiety for investors on the future of stock prices. If this sentiment continues we could see perhaps lower lows than those seen during the December period. I personally believe the recent market rally was driven merely by the good news caused by the increased sales of the holidays and other factors as well, but now entering to one of the usually most negatives stages of the year the fragility of the market could again be exposed.
Additionally, from a technical point of view, we can observe a MACD cross over on the weekly chart. This indicates that the short-term average of price fluctuation is moving lower than the longer 26-period average, therefore, indicating a possible future change in the longer-term average and therefore moving the price lower. Also were positioned in a support level which may be tested and stand strong but with further downward pressure it could easily push through in the near future leading to a strong move to the downside.
Although I don't recommend a strategy based on buy and sell signals I feel the there is a high amount of bearish signals being triggered, not only in the chart but in the news as well as in economic data such as the Yield curve inversion. The low level of unemployment also signals me we're if not at then near full employment which could lead to higher wages and therefore layoffs (this is mear speculation and not based on any fundamental truth).
This analysis remains exactly the same on multiple other indexes such as the SPX, DJIA, and ME (although I belive the ME to be a way more riskier investment given the political situation of Mexico)
My recommendations would be:
1) Play it safe, don't short
2) Have your money on a safe haven such as gold or keep your money liquid
3) Buy once the market has had a significant drop such as the December lows and lower
4) Brace for impact
Elliott Wave View: Russell Should Extend LowerElliott Wave sequence in Russell (RTY_F) from May 6, 2019 high (1621.9) appears incomplete favoring further downside. The bounce to 1571.5 in the Index ended wave X. Index has extended lower in wave Y and broken below the previous low on May 14 low (1516.7). This suggests the next leg lower has started. The internal of wave Y is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1571.5, wave ((w)) ended at 1492.9 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave (a) ended at 1522.1, wave (b) ended at 1548.9, and wave (c) ended at 1492.9.
Wave ((x)) bounce is now complete at 1523.90 peak while below there should extend lower. We don’t like buying the Index, and as far as pivot at May 16 high (1571.44) stays intact, expect Index to move lower. Potential target to the downside is 1441.85 – 1466.32 area where cycle from May 6, 2019 peak reaches 100% extension.
SPX 600 points lower by August Rising Wedge trend linesBounce above 2900.. Could be a hundred point higher than here today..So enjoy the rally to accumulate short around these levels. Any time higher is a gift.
All time high fractionally??? or just Oct 2018 high
Global slowdown contagion hitting our shores..
Rates cut sooner than the fall to fan the fire before its out
The market didn't read this one soon enough. Job Cuts.Guiding Lower.
Recession Stock Time
Trade Safe
AMEX:SPY
The Russell 2000 Finally Breaks Out!Since the turn of the New Year, bears have been calling for an end to this unstoppable rally. Everyone, including myself, seemingly wanted to short a bounce in the market and we all got crushed. Can you blame us? Volatility often begets volatility and it seemed that a recession was right on time with the current bull market's length reaching record territory. A recession, however, was not in the cards and the market went on to form a perfect V-bottom. With the S&P at all-time highs, the only hope of the bears was that the small and mid-cap stocks were lagging the pack and signaled devastation to come. This, however, seems not to be the case anymore with the Russell 2000 breaking the 1590 level today.
With a Fed that seems hellbent on overstimulating the economy, an administration that feels it needs a higher stock market to be re-elected, a majority of economists calling for a recession and a ton of money on the sidelines or in bonds after December's crash, I believe conditions are ripe for a melt-up over the next year. The chart above shows an inverse head-and-shoulders (also on the S&P) that, if it were to play out classically, would target 1913 in the Russell! That's 20% higher than here!
Putting my long-term view aside (as I am mostly a short-term trader), I believe we can play this breakout in the Russell for a short-term, low-risk, high-reward trade.
Buy the Russell (via IWM, or RTY E-mini's) @ 1604 or lower
Target 1: 1649
Target 2: 1700
Stop: 1583
RTY1!, Small Caps in the Breakout ModeA strong bullish daily candle confirms the breakout of the significant resistance level. The small caps entered a balance breakout mode. Usually, that would lead to continuation pattern until the projected area top is not reached. The bullish pattern would help the S&P to move higher or at least to remain at the current prices. The small caps offer better upside reward. If you don’t trade futures you can trade IWM ETF instead.
05/03/2019
RTY1!, Small Caps Broke the BalanceIt seems the upside idea started to unfold. With a low volume there is no strong upside move, nevertheless , a breakout remains intact so far. The market can grind up being in the breakout mode for awhile. Traders are advised to buy pullbacks until the breakout is intact.
The strength in the Russell helped the S&P, which was expected and outlined in the previous post.
04/30/2019
Russell is likely to follow SPX After December selloff, SPX is at all time highs where Russell is clearly lagging. I think the reason is that after panic investors are now biased to buy big company stocks rather than small and risky ones. I think Russell will catch up with SPX if (!) this performance in SPX will continue.
RTY1!, Keep Knocking its Major ResistanceThe Russell 2000, a true indicator of the broader market strength, is keep testing its major resistance. The original idea that it could offer a better upside reward is still intact. Usually, a support or resistance eventually gives up after multiple testes.
In case of the successful breakout the released energy would propel the market - there will be a lot of chasers who is watching it and wait for confirmation. It would also help the S&P 500 to move higher or at least to remain at the higher prices.
In case of a false breakout, things could turn ugly for the buyers.
Watch the index for a great opportunity unfold. If you don't trade futures look at the IWM ETF.
04/28/2019
RTY1!, All Eyes on Small CapsHere is a dissected daily chart of Russell 2000 futures with important levels to watch. As of today, the index remains the weakest among the others. Last week it tested an important trend line but managed to close above it. The index has an interesting behavior that could be used to trader's advantage. For example, it may be in a catch up mode and trend well while the rest of the indices are aimlessly chopping or it may show a hint where the rest of the indices will be heading.
Say, as an investor where do I put my money to work if I can see the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are at all time highs? The Russell is far from the all time highs and has plenty of upside potential.
I drew a few projected areas above and beyond the current action. In case the prices break above that would be a nice upside trend to fill the projected area. In case of a breakdown of the trend line the price can fill the existing area and still find enough buyers to remain inside.
Let's watch the price development next week. Being close to the upper edge of the existing balance the upside potential is there. The only warning sign is a notable negative divergence.
04/21/2019
Complex Inverse Head & Shoulders on the IWM. Could move higher.IWM is currently with a complex inverse head and shoulders pattern, and we are now sitting just below the neckline. It is trading above the 50/100/200 day moving averages, and it looks like a golden cross (50 MA crossing the 200 MA) may occur soon as well. Setup looks good, but it needs to break above the flat line of resistance around $158.60 to get moving. I would either like to see a strong break-out into a strong rally higher, or to see a break-out above the neckline into a pull-back to retest the neckline as new support, ideally confirming the S/R flip before further consolidating and then moving higher. I am watching $164.20, $170.00, and $173.50 as possible resistance area's based on previous price action.
Moving average guide (All daily for this post):
50 day moving average in Green.
100 day moving average in Yellow.
200 day moving average in Red.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.