Hyped about the possibilities of NQWhy I'm so hyped?...
We just had a perfect start of a Bullish weekly model. Bearish Mon-Tues. stablishing weekly lows on Tuesday. Next will be the setting of the Weekly highs on Wed-Thursday with the following distribution on Friday if any.
If you look at the NQ chart we went from internal to internal with big boy rejection of that 4H level. Normally under these circumstances price goes from internal to external. Our next external is 18026 about 200 points away from current price.
Now, I do not expect for us to go straight there everyone here knows price does not move like that but the case is being made by several factors
A Weakening Dollar after the Monthly area rejection
A strengthening Bond market - so-so
Strength in the small caps which is usually a good indication of risk on scenarios
Election year (Never discount the power of Big Brother)
Lets see what happens.
Russell2000
Russel 2000 WeakLet's take a look at the Russel 2000. This index seems to be the only one between the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P that is failing to break to new ATH while they are.
What we're seeing is a triple top/triple resistance in Aug 2022, than again February 2023, and again August 2023 which was confirmed with a break down to the lows of October 2023 before more manipulation came into play. Some will say inflation is declining and talks of rate cuts seems to be the reason markets rose, but from what we are hearing today from the Fed is that rate cuts aren't likely as they continue to backtrack and downplay rate cuts.
Perhaps, they know something before we do... perhaps double peak inflation like the 1970s? Just as everyone believes its declining, surprising new data comes out that proves otherwise? Let's see.
Once again we see the Russel 2K failed more recently to break and hold above 2020 with constant rejections. This would be the 4th rejection and we could be on the 5th rejection. And why not? Banks once again are starting to shake, with JPMorgan losing deposits, NY Community Bank failing, banks invested in CRE are tanking and this before the big ending to their Bank Term Funding Programme (BTFP) officially ending. Look at the chart for it, it spiked in March 2023 with the failure of SVB, and it is spiking once again Jan and Feb of 2024. Something coming down the pipelines?
I shudder when I see markets breaking ATH, because it has ALWAYS meant markets are more vulnerable to bad news (be it financial, economical, or geopolitical). What we're witnessing is a market that is getting fundamentally weaker and weaker. The economy does not support equities hitting ATH, as earnings are revised lower, personal debt is $17 TRILLION dollars (an ATH) and personal savings are at an all time low. This is not including the decaying jobs market, retail, national debt, manufacturing, consumer sentiment and so on. The floor is a 1 centimeter sheet of ice and it's warming up. This bubble is poised to pop any moment now.
My advice
Obviously, be vigilant. If you are holding positions from a lower price point and you are making profit, I say hold until whatever event happens and breaks the glass floor. If you are new money looking to invest, I can not suggest investing now at the top with such toxic economy and financials. Do your own research, look at the economic data and see if any of it or at least majority of it gives you peace about investing. People are broke, debt is exploding so retail will inevitably collapse and since we're a retail based economy, you can imagine what comes next.
Targets for Russel 2K - IWM
1) 1915, if we break that then
2) 1730, if we break that then
3) 1680, if we break that then
4) 1630, if we break that then run for the hills.
IWM: 4 Hour Bull Flag targeting Top of Ascending ChannelThe IWM(Russel 2000 ETF) is consolidating in what looks to be a Bull Flag and if it breaks out the target would take us to the top of the macro Ascending Channel which would take us to the resistance zone of $200-$210. If I had to guess I'd say IWM could likely make its way up to that level by the end of next week.
US2000 H4 | Downward trend to resumeUS2000 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 1,944.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 1,988.39
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 1,874.74
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Will US2000 find buyers at market?US2000 - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Previous support located at 1924. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
We look to Buy at 1925 (stop at 1905)
Our profit targets will be 1975 and 2010
Resistance: 2010 / 2080 / 2110
Support: 1865 / 1820 / 1775
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
iShares Russell 2000 ETF - Waiting for a better opportunity iShares Russell 200 - AMEX:IWM
I'd be waiting for an opening
▫️ Break above overhead resistance
▫️ Bounce off the base support
▫️ Min 200 week MA bounce (tight stop).
A wait and see from me
🚨Declining On Balance Volume (OBV) not ideal.
✅Upward sloping 200 week is a positive
Buying is now Detected on All 4 Major US Indexes DOW and Russel showed Buying in the few sessions in the LAST WEEK and today S&P500 and NASDAQ have joined in. UMVD or Unusual Market volume Detector is showing GREEN for all 4 Indices today. Also, US Market Strength Index (US MSI) is showing green in todays session.
Now TREND IS STILL DOWN as seen with the Red TrapZones so, Bulls have a lot of work to do still.
Trend Lines & Their Significance in Minervini's Trading StrategyIntroduction
In the world of stock trading, trend lines are vital tools for investors and traders alike. Mark Minervini, an acclaimed swing trader, is known for his strategic use of trend lines in assessing the strength of stock movements. This article delves into Minervini's approach, highlighting how he utilizes trend lines to identify optimal trade entries and exits, and emphasizes the significance of upward trend consistency in his methods.
Utilizing Trend Lines to Gauge Stock Movement Strength
Minervini leverages trend lines to evaluate the momentum and strength of a stock's movement. By connecting the lows in an upward trend or the highs in a downward trend, he creates a visual representation of the stock’s trajectory. This technique allows him to discern the stock's current trend, be it bullish or bearish, and gauge its strength. A steeper trend line indicates a stronger movement, whereas a flatter line suggests a weaker trend. In Minervini’s strategy, the angle and longevity of these trend lines are critical factors in assessing a stock's potential for continued movement in its current direction.
Identifying Trade Entries and Exits
Trend lines are more than just indicators of stock movement; they are crucial for identifying potential trade entries and exits. Minervini uses two types of trend lines: support and resistance. A support line is drawn along the low points of a stock's price, indicating a level where the price tends to find support and bounce back upwards. Conversely, a resistance line connects the high points, highlighting a price level where the stock often faces selling pressure.
For Minervini, a break above a resistance trend line signals a potential entry point, indicating that the stock might continue to climb. Similarly, a break below a support line might suggest an exit point or a short-selling opportunity, indicating that the stock could be entering a downtrend. These trend lines, therefore, play a pivotal role in his decision-making process, guiding him on when to enter or exit a trade.
The Importance of Upward Trend Consistency
In Minervini's method, consistency in an upward trend is a key factor. He looks for stocks that show a sustained upward trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows, which are typically indicative of strong buyer interest and positive momentum. This consistency not only suggests a robust bullish sentiment but also provides a measure of safety, as stocks in a consistent uptrend are less likely to experience sudden drops.
Moreover, Minervini emphasizes the importance of volume in these trends. An upward trend accompanied by increasing volume can be a sign of strong investor confidence, adding further credence to the strength of the trend. Conversely, an upward trend with declining volume may signal a loss of momentum, prompting a more cautious approach.
Conclusion
Mark Minervini’s use of trend lines is a testament to their importance in stock trading. By carefully analyzing these lines for both support and resistance, and prioritizing stocks with a consistent upward trend, he is able to make informed decisions about trade entries and exits. For traders looking to enhance their strategies, incorporating Minervini's approach to trend lines can be a valuable addition to their trading toolkit, offering a clearer perspective on the strengths and potential directions of stock movements.
RUT 2K Fell 17.50% After the Last U.S. Credit DowngradeIf you haven`t bought the RUT 2K regional Double Bottom here:
On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing "a steady deterioration in standards of governance."
This downgrade occurred following last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to secure a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, which put the nation at risk of its first default.
Following a similar credit downgrade in the past, the RUT 2K Russell 2000 experienced a sharp decline of 17.50% within a three-month period. S&P, one of the three major credit rating firms, downgraded U.S. debt on Aug. 5, 2011, after another significant debt ceiling battle.
Presently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
Even though is not likely, a 17.50% decline will lead to a Price Target of $1630 for RUT 2K.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RUT 2K Price Prediction for 2024If you haven`t bought the Double Bottom on RUT 2K:
Then you probably know that small caps haven`t participated in the 2023 market rally.
That`s why I believe investors will will for opportunities in the small cap stocks in 2024, and Russell 2000 index might offer a bigger return than the S&P this year.
My price prediction for RUT 2K is $2560 by the end of the year.
IWM - Russell 2000 - SHORT (Wyckoff Re-Distribution)IWM looks to be reaching the UTAD stage of a Wyckoff Re-distribution schematic.
Lowering volume in the lead up to UTAD provides confluence to the idea. Expecting price to return to linear regression trend line around 120. Price could extend further, but I expect we are nearing the top of this rally and a sharp correction in 2024.
Take profit level of 120 coincides with a fibo extension of 1.618, so further confluence there.
Markets are overinflated and this move would revert price back to the long term mean.
RUSSELL 2000 on a 20 month High! Is it sustainable?Russell 2000 (RUT) gave us an excellent buy entry on our last call (see chart below), as we achieved the most optimal buy near Support 2 and rallied all the way to our 2000 Target:
The Resistance Zone broke and this delivered a new 20-month High on the index, the effect of which is more accurately seen on the 1W time-frame. The question is, how sustainable can this rally be?
Well as the 1W RSI is only 3 points away from getting overbought (70.00) for the first time since March 2021, having also entered the 2 year Higher Highs Zone, it becomes less and less sustainable. In fact a less risky medium-term strategy would be to start selling and target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That is where we will reverse to a buy and target Resistance 1 at 2140.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
$PLTR - Palantir extremly oversold on the Weekly. Time to BUY!!?TA on NYSE:PLTR as some traders seem worried about this steep selloff the last 3 trading days. Also, briefly discussing the fundamentals of the Company. #AlexKarp
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:IWM chart analysis/mapping.
IWM ETF rally off late October lows on market expectations of the end to Fed rate hikes.
Trading scenarios:
Continuation rally #1 = multiple gap fill / 38.2% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = 23.6% Fib / horizontal line (light blue dashed) confluence zone.
Deeper pullback #1 = lower range of parallel channel (green) / 200MA confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = re-test ~163 bottom.
RUSSELL 2000: Short term pullback possible but buy for 1910.Russell 2000 crossed again today overo the 1D MA200 and it remains to be seen if it succeeds at closing above it. After the November 15th crossing but failure to close over it, a repeat may materialize a pullback of at least -4.50%, in similar fashion as the 1D MA200 rejections of May 23rd 2023 and November 1st 2022.
Technically that's possible as on the greater picture, the index is still neutral on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 50.610, MACD = -19.910, ADX = 34.284) sitting almost halfway of the giant consolidation/ Rectangle pattern of the past year and a half.
Consequently, we will welcome any pullback as a buy opportunity, but we are already bullish, aiming at the R1 level (TP = 1,910).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Russell 2000 (RTY, M2K) Low-Timeframe ShortQuick idea here as we look to get back in a groove with analysis/posts after a very light October. Not going to include a lot of elaboration, but we're looking to take advantage of a swing short (price depending) via a low timeframe (5-minute) RTY supply zone (defining candles not pictured here since sub-15-minute charts cannot be posted). If price approaches the zone hot (expanded range candle vs. grinding action), look to take the trade outright upon penetration of the lower bound (1795.4). If RTY stair-steps higher, forming new pockets of demand between current price and supply, consider taking a confirmation entry (price exit from zone). Stop should be placed a bit above the zone's upper bound. Keep in mind round # psych @ 1800. Targets are 2:1 and 5:1 (look for a fall back to origin of CPI breakout). Finally, US stocks have been very bullish as of late, so shorts fly in the face of current momentum. That said, RTY has consistently been the weakest of the 4 US equity indexes, so if you're going to short one, it's probably your best bet. Have to run, but good luck!
Stay tuned b/c a LOT more ideas are coming soon!
Jon @ LionHart Trading
US Russell 2000 RTY ~ Ping Pong Perpetuity (Daily Chart)CAPITALCOM:RTY chart mapping/analysis.
Russell 2000 still stuck within trading range despite recent rallies across major US indices.
What's on the chart:
Ascending parallel channel (light blue) captures upward trend over multi-decade timeframe
Descending parallel channel (white) frames downward trend from upper to lower range (multi-decade) parallel channel
Horizontal lines (yellow dashed) locks in trading range (June 2022 to present)
Descending trend-line (light blue dotted) highlights pivot support points
Fibonnaci levels establishes key supply/demand zones
Short-medium term outlook:
Neutral-bearish
RTY remains in " Ping Pong Perpetuity " until breakout on either side of trading range
200DMA acting as dynamic resistance, exerting downward pressure
Bullish reversal = rally above 200DMA to switch trend & test upper trading range
FED VS MarketWow, isn't it amazing how high the SPX and other indices are right now? The rally from 4118 didn't quite create a solid base, but I truly believe that the market is heading even higher and showcasing the strength of the US market. Sure, there may have been a lack of volume during the rally, but that doesn't dampen my optimism at all. Despite the reports of inflation, I see this as an opportunity to protect myself as a trader with a huge hedge. It's exciting to be in the midst of all this uncertainty and potential!
Despite a strong week, IWM remains in trading rangePrimary Chart: IWM / Russell 2000 Weekly Timeframe
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is often a leading indicator in US markets. It led to the downside in early November 2021 after a false breakout out of its 2021 topping-pattern's resistance around $234. SPX topped nearly two months later on January 4, 2022. While small-caps are not necessarily always the first to make a move, it is something frequently cited by commentators and analysts. This is why the Russell 2000 is important for traders and investors to follow to maintain a deeper understanding of the broader US equity markets.
Despite a very strong weekly close for IWM, its price remains in the lower half of its trading range. This trading range has contained price for the past 1.5 years, since the topping pattern's support (at the upper blue rectangle) broke down in January 2022. Unlike other major US indices like the Nasdaq 100, IWM has continued to struggle and remains well below its August 2022 and January / February 2023 highs.
Two months ago, in a recent post titled " Something is Rotten in the State of Markets ," IWM's underperformance of SPX provided a basis for discussion as to why US equity markets may remain unhealthy despite the bullish price action YTD (see link below). A strong and long-lasting bull market should show signs of broad participation. Many breadth indicators have shown very narrow breadth. It's not a surprise, in fact, that SPX's rally and upside performance has been driven by 5 to 10 SPX names, with the other 490-495 flat, lagging, or up weakly.
Supplementary Chart A
This previous April 10 analysis displayed a hypothetical price path intended to reflect the possibility of more sideways and choppy price action in the intermediate term. The choppy price action has largely unfolded as expected (click the play / refresh arrow on the prior post from April 10, 2023). In fact, IWM's price at the time of the prior post was at $173.89, and a month later on May 8 it had closed almost at the same level around $172.72.
Now IWM appears to be breaking above the recent trading range. Major levels of resistance appear on the Primary Chart as Fibonacci levels (the .618 retracement and the .50 retracement, which is not technically a Fibonacci proportion) as well as the anchored VWAP from the November 2021 ATH. How price responds to these levels will be important to watch in coming weeks especially after June 16, 2023 OPEX—a quad witching event.
It is notable that IWM trades far below its major ATH VWAP from November 2021. Compare how IWM's price trades relative to this VWAP (labeled on the Primary Chart above) with how SPY's price trades relative to its ATH VWAP. SPY's VWAP anchored to its ATH is shown in Supplementary chart B below.
Supplementary Chart B
Finally, a relative chart of Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 is helpful to examine these two major US equity indices and how IWM has performed YTD relative to the SPY / SPX. See Supplementary Chart C below. This relative chart shows IWM still in a downtrend relative to SPY. And it still shows that IWM vs. SPY remains below major resistance. Given that IWM is a leading index at times, it will be interesting to see whether what happens to the major resistance on this relative chart that was broken in early April 2023. Will it hold?
Supplementary Chart C
In summary, the small-cap stocks in the US equity market are lagging despite putting in a strong weekly performance this week of +3.33%. The primary trend in small caps remains sideways by any measure. Will IWM play catch up to the other main US indices like S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) and Nasdaq 100 ( NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ )? No one knows for sure. But the liquidity problems plaguing the US economy tend to show up in the weakest names first, which usually are also the smallest names. Could IWM's underperformance be a sign of this liquidity stress? Or will it catch up to confirm that the current rally in NDX and SPY are perfectly healthy under the hood and headed to new all-time highs? Stay tuned.
And thanks for reading this and for your encouragement and support.
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Calling all investors!Overview
The Russell is at a potential attractive buy area for long-term investors.
The Details
The Russell ( FX:US2000 ) stock index is in a retrace move. Price is currently between the monthly 50 and 100 SMA's.
Historically, buying when the price is between the moving averages has been a favourable entry area for long-term investments.
Things to Consider
Recession could be on the horizon for the US. This would likely drive prices lower, especially for the Russell 2000.
Using an ETC, such as IWM, is often better for investing in stock indices than futures or OTC products.
Other stock indices may decline further before reaching new highs. The positive correlation between stock indices could bring the US2000 down further.
RUSSELL 2000 Spearheading the next stock market run?Russell 2000 / RUT closed the 3rd green day after hitting the Support A Zone that is holding since June 16th 2022.
This is turning into a major long term buy signal and will be validated when tomorrow the 1day MACD forms the lowest Bullish Cross since March.
Technically the bullish break out happens after the price crosses over the 1day MA50, but on a broader horizon, the current level is low enough to attempt a buy.
Target 2000 (bottom of Resistance Zone A).
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!