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Correctional Recovery on US30/DJIThese days have brought Major Suffering to the Markets, with even the US Indexes failing numerous times to make a comeback for a prolonged amount of time. The level of confusion in investor's perception is very high, with proper direction only seen in Pockets of AfterHours trading, and rarely in normal Normal Market Hours. Both swing trading, and scalping have become rough. Corrections are known to last for some time, however there is hope to see proper March Rallying, and a gradual climb back up to ATH in the coming weeks, as long as fundamentals can clear up (Russia, Energy Prices, Inflation, etc...). - Here is a likely analysis for the coming weeks / midterm. A possible retest of the correctional point may occur, as well as waterfall/reversal movement along any point of major resistance. Weakness may last, however Volume is sure to pick up at random times of positive fundamentals. Patience for the real Rallying will last!
ULong
by UnknownUnicorn22065023
1
Litecoin Jumps!! 🚀📈Litecoin has jumped off positive news about the Ukraine war. The news has lifted the crypto market as a whole, even though it was a minor comment that Putin made about " positive undertones " in talks with Ukraine. Litecoin has lifted from the low $100's to $105. We are currently testing this technical level which has provided fierce resistance lately. If we are able to break through then the next target is $114. If not, then the low $100's are sure to provide support for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
2
Ethereum Jumps from Putin's CommentsEthereum caught a lift with the rest of the crypto market off positive news in the Russia/Ukraine war. We found support at $2556, as we anticipated yesterday. The Kovach OBV still registers a bearish trend, though we do appear to be lifting at the moment, and we will see if this rally is for real or just noise. If we are seeing a genuine bid then $2651 must be broken, then the next target is $2762. The Kovach Chande has lifted significantly, giving us hope for the rally.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Safe Haven Inflows Still Lifting Gold (For Now)Ukraine woes still weigh on global markets and although gold has retraced significantly, it is still hanging onto the high 1900's. Positive news is incoming as we compose this thread including Putin acknowledging "positive undertones" in Ukraine talks . We have given up the 2000's after touching highs at 2070. After finding support at 1982, we appear to be making a run for 2000 again, currently testing 1999 and hovering about 1995 or so at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is drifting downwards, suggesting a slight bear bias, but we have a lot of support levels below to buoy the price, including 1982, 1977, 1973, and 1964. It is doubtful we will slice through all of these, but watch the vacuum zone below to 1936. If we get a lift, then 2029, 2048, and 2070 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1
The Russian Vix-Maggedon Since its inception the Russian Vix has capture 3 events that have had world wide impacts with a pretty stochastic level of fear in each.....maybe. Currently sitting at its highest reading with what can only be compared to the possible onset of WW3 in Europe with their 1st military engagement in 75 years happening with one of the top 3 Super Powers involved. If the Vix captures fear then this is scary as fck right now to people close and not so close to this situation. Putin is 69 he didn't make this move lightly nor did he not plan for what is happening in response, a rush to conclusion that he's finished is a crowded trade & he has now responded by cutting exports of commodities like Crude Oil & Wheat long with fertilizer components that will press on food cost further than inflationary pressures had already been doing. Food & Energy are his tools to impose sanctions on the west and the last thing the world needs coming out of a pandemic with supply chain issues is an economic war but here we are. If this is the beginning of Putin's end game we are at a serious inflection point here. Below this level risk assets pump again above a Super-Cycle in commodities and a real challenge for the leadership of the free world takes place....
RUS:RVI
by Kazonomics
7
Oil Slides off OPEC Production CooperationOil has retraced sharply off news that OPEC is planning to oblige the demands of the west and increase oil production . We are still holding onto the $100's, but dipped by double digit percentages down to 106, where we found support. Currently we are seeing a nice pivot back through 112, with the price currently in the vacuum zone between 112 and 116. Russia is consistently in the top 4 oil producing nations, so boycotting them will place further constraints on existing supply issues. Therefore, any selloff in oil is likely transitory. It is not likely we will give up the $100's any time soon and $101 is a likely floor for now. If momentum reignites, then $116 and $122 are the next targets before $132.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Fundamental Analysis for March 9/10 2022As investors ditched safe-haven assets in favor of stock allocations, the dollar index bottomed around the 98 mark, moving away from a nearly two-year high of 99.40 reached earlier this week. The most active selling was against the euro, which was sparked by news that European Union members were considering issuing a joint bond to fund energy and defense spending. All eyes are now on the February US inflation report, which might impact the rate at which the Federal Reserve tightens. With tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine clouding the outlook for policy, the ECB meeting on Thursday will be a crucial driver for the foreign exchange market.
TVC:DXYLong
by TayFx
What you need to know to trade wheat futures in 2022Fears of the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on global inflation and recession have escalated in recent weeks and another major issue looming over the horizon are concerns that the conflict could result in a hunger crisis as both countries account for over a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. Wheat prices recently surged to a 14-year high, with the price of a bushel of wheat soaring more than 50% to $12.94 on Monday since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. The price movement on Monday hit the Chicago Board of Trade’s limit for another day. Reliance on Russia and Ukraine wheat exports Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s largest exporters of wheat, accounting for about 30% of the global total. In 2019, Russia was the world’s top wheat exporter, while Ukraine came in fifth next to the US, Canada and France, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity. The disruption in both countries’ grain harvest and trade could have catastrophic impacts on their biggest buyers in the Middle East including Egypt, which depends on Ukraine’s wheat imports to produce subsidized bread to its poor population and other staples. These fears intensified on Wednesday after the Ukrainian government said it will ban exports of key agricultural goods like wheat, corn, salt, meat and oilseeds to maintain market stability in Ukraine and “meet the needs of the population in critical food products. Looming food shortage Many nations rely on Ukraine and Russia for grain and oilseeds and the crisis could exacerbate the supply of food especially at a time when low-income countries are still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. Some economists have warned that the war could lead to a repeat of the Arab Spring in the past decade when social unrest and armed rebellions led to soaring food prices. "The fallout from Ukraine will spread across the globe. Russia and Ukraine together export 30% of the world's wheat. As this war heats up, many countries will face: soaring food prices, catastrophic hunger & growing instability,” David Beasley, the head of the United Nations World Food Program said. Farmers in Russia and Ukraine are tipped to reduce their planting area in the coming seasons as the war intensifies, placing the pressure on other exporters to boost production. China, India, US work to fill in the gap Although Russia and Ukraine’s grain trade have not been technically included in sanctions imposed by Western countries, many importers have turned to other sources like China, India and the US to make up for any shortfalls, according to ING Bank, over fears of supply disruptions. “We would expect to see strong plantings from US farmers over the spring, leaving the potential for an increase in US spring wheat, corn and soybean area,” ING’s head of commodities strategy, Warren Patterson, said in a note on Monday. Volatility in wheat markets The lingering crisis in Ukraine has caused wheat prices to be highly volatile in recent weeks as countries work to ensure grain imports to feed their population. The CBOT soft red winter wheat, KC hard red winter wheat and MGEX spring wheat all reached their daily trading limits for another day on Tuesday, while US wheat futures snapped a six-day winning streak the same day. Investors have been hesitant in making big position moves for the second week in a row last week despite the market volatility, Reuters said. In the week ended March 1, commodity funds axed only 11,000 futures and options contracts from their CBOT wheat net short, down from estimates, the news outlet reported earlier this week, citing data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "Huge speculative interest has flowed into wheat that may have pushed futures past reasonable levels… The export market is difficult to define with many countries banning exports and tenders being canceled,” CHS Hedging was quoted by Bloomberg News as saying.
W
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD Technical Analysis for MarchJust a quick look at some simple technicals and logic to how EURUSD will develop over the coming days/weeks. Likely better to join a move back to the 1.11s to find resistance as the worst of the sanctions and embargo panicking has taken place, unlikely to reach 1.08 again unless a drastic measure such as Russia cutting off the EU and GB entirely from oil/gas happened. News coming tomorrow on the dollar, so wait until after that if there's an opportunity left. The White House did this before where they said expect a bad number, only for a shock number to come out so they get good headlines to distract the public
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
2
$Gold TA: 22.2.20Gold has broken the long-term downtrend and can continue to test the support specified in the chart and continue to climb to continue the climb. It is important to note that the news has affected the upward trend of gold and if the gold news changes, it can return to its previous trend. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Sadegh Ahmadi: @SDQ_Crypto 📅 20.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better
FX:XAUUSD
by SDQ_Crypto
2
Market Analysis and KeyEventRisk + Multi Month Target's et..alToday, the dollar index held steady above 99 and stayed near levels last seen in May 2020. Investors looked at geopolitical and economic concerns over the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and they bought dollars as a safe-haven. The long-running conflict in Ukraine didn't seem to go away, and it kept causing chaos around the world. This has led to a big rise in commodity prices, which has raised inflation and growth concerns and made it more difficult for central banks. At its March meeting, I expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, but the chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, said that if inflation keeps rising, the Fed might act more quickly. People now want to see the U.S. inflation data on Thursday, which is expected to show that 7.9 percent was the rate of inflation in February. I expect no Farm Payrolls in the United States to be 350.00 Thousand by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. In the long-term, I projected the United States Non Farm Payrolls to tend around 280.00 Thousand in 2023, according to our econometric models. From 1914 to 2022, the inflation rate in the United States averaged 3.25 percent, with a high of 23.70 percent in June 1920 and a low of -15.80 percent in June 1921. This page provides the current Inflation Rate in the United States, as well as historical data, forecasts, charts, statistics, an economic calendar, and recent news. The statistics, history trend, estimates, and calendar of releases for the States Inflation Rate were last updated in March 2022. On Tuesday, the dollar index maintained its recent gains to rise beyond 99 points, hovering near levels last seen in May 2020 and benefiting from safe-haven inflows as investors assessed the geopolitical and economic dangers surrounding the Russia-Ukraine confrontation. The protracted crisis in Ukraine showed no signs of abating and continued to wreak havoc on international financial markets. Because of this, commodity prices have risen dramatically, fueling inflationary and growth concerns while posing new challenges to central banks. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting, but Fed head Jerome Powell has hinted that the central bank might act more forcefully if inflation continues to rise at its current levels in the future. Investors are now expecting the release of US inflation data on Thursday, which is expected to show another multi-decade high of 7.9 percent in February of this year. The American economy added 678K jobs in February of 2022, the most in seven months and way above market forecasts of 400K. Job growth was widespread, led by leisure and hospitality (179K), namely food services and drinking places (124K) and accommodation (28K); professional and business services (95K), mainly temporary help services (36K), management of companies and enterprises (12K) and management and technical consulting services (10K); health care (64K); and construction (60K). That leaves employment 2.1 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level and many economists believe the job market could recover all the pandemic losses this year. Fed Chair recently said to Congress the labour market was "extremely tight", but the crisis in Ukraine poses new risks to the economic and inflation outlook.
Short
by TayFx
possible ban on imports pushing ngas Ngas had a weekend gap on sunday due to news of Russia Imports possible ban. after the weekend gap the market sold to the demand zone. on the 4hr timeframe you can see if had a fake out of the demand zone. breaking then the very next 4r candle coming back up into the demand zone. if the next candle would have closed below the demand zone it would have indicated a continuation sell. the 3hr timeframe shows bullish wick rejection. A hidden divergence is shown on the 3o minute time frame. going for 250 - 300 pips. The U.S. and European allies are considering a ban on Russian Oil imports, thus creating more supply fears in the market.
FX:NGASLong
by UnknownUnicorn11654040
2
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar rose on Monday, lifted by safe-haven flows after the United States and European allies considered banning Russian crude imports, causing uncertainty over the global growth outlook as oil prices hit 14-year highs. Oanda noted that “The Russia-Ukraine conflict is continuing to lead to further surges across several commodities, which is threatening growth prospects for the year… There are a growing amount of jilters that will probably keep the dollar supported, as you’re going to see the Us economy is still nicely positioned in the short term because it’s not as dependent on Russian energy supplies as Europe is.”
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) TA:22.3.5 Bitcoin failed to stabilize inside the bullish channel and above the support of 39800 to 40500, and this shows the selling pressure in the market. I expect a move upwards and a pullback to the 40,000 area, where I enter the shorts position if I see weakness in the candlesticks. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Sadegh Ahmadi: @SDQ_Crypto 📅 5.Mar.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please LIKE and COMMENT , It Keeps me motivated to do better❤️
Short
by SDQ_Crypto
Things to Remember As the Market Dynamics ChangeA successful trader must be like a chameleon, willing to change with market conditions. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. The global pandemic changed many assumptions, forcing market participants to develop new skills to deal with the price carnage in early 2020. The impact of unprecedented central bank liquidity and government stimulus caused the need to pivot and adapt to new conditions. Plan first- Trade or invest later Risk-reward is critical Leverage is a function of price variance Stick to the game plan There are always other opportunities in volatile markets In early 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned the world upside down. The US, Europe, and allies worldwide support Ukraine by providing aid and slapping Russia with sanctions. However, the meeting between the Russian leader and Chinese President Xi at the Beijing Winter Olympics was a watershed event and may have set the stage for the incursion. China and Russia entered into a long-term $117 billion agreement for Russia to supply energy and other commodities to the world’s most populous country with the second-leading economy. The deal could make US and European sanctions toothless or lessen the bite on Russia’s economy as President Putin moves to take the former Soviet satellite back under his umbrella. With the US, NATO, and other allies on one side and China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran on the other, the risk of a confrontation with nuclear ramifications dramatically increased. The pandemic has given way to a geopolitical crisis, requiring another pivot by investors and traders to deal with the current environment. Volatility is likely to be the norm instead of the exception for the foreseeable future. The increasing price variance is a nightmare for passive investors but creates many opportunities for nimble traders with their fingers on the pulse of markets. Success in markets always requires discipline, and increased volatility only makes discipline more critical. In early March 2022, we must remember the key factors that increase the odds of success in markets. Plan first- Trade or invest later Organization and planning are critical in life, and trading and investing are no exception. In a highly volatile market, planning becomes even more essential. We follow three rules for considering any risk position: Respect the market sentiment- The path of least resistance reflects market sentiment, making the trend your only friend in markets across all asset classes. Write down your ideas, planning, organizing, and memorializing your thoughts. Referring back to the original justification for a trade or investment will remind you of the thought process. Do not trade or invest for the sake of participating in any market. The risks in over-trading or investing without a plan increase with price volatility. When considering entering any risk position, eliminate any emotional impulses by ignoring the news cycle and so-called “expert” advice. The price action is the most objective view of the market’s interpretation of the geopolitical and economic landscapes. Risk-reward is critical Any plan needs to outline the risk tolerance, which must be a function of profit targets. We follow three rules regarding risk versus reward: The risk-reward equation should be at least 1:1, meaning do not risk more than your expected profit level. Higher price variance should increase the expected reward level compared to the risk. Even the most successful traders call the market’s direction wrong more than right. A higher reward target versus risk increases the potential for success over time, allowing for small losses and higher profits. Never increase the risk level because an asset price moves contrary to expectations. Admitting you are wrong can be humbling, but it is a critical element for financial survival. Risk-reward is the essential part of a plan that establishes the discipline necessary for success. Risk-reward levels should always reflect price variance, and higher price volatility requires more expansive risk-reward levels. Leverage is a function of price variance Leverage can be a blessing or a curse. Greed and fear are impulses that drive human behavior. Leverage levels should always reflect market volatility. In volatile markets, reduce leverage to protect capital. In static markets where volatility declines, increasing leverage is more appropriate. When risk positions are in the money, greed drives us to feel we are not long or short enough. Fear makes us believe we are too long or short when they are out of the money. A plan and the appropriate leverage will help avoid listening to the little voice in our heads that incites the fear and greed impulses. Stick to the game plan Mike Tyson once said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Markets are not forgiving when they move against our expectations. Sticking to a game plan prepares you for the sock in the kisser. The risk level should be set in stone at the beginning of any trade or investment. It is acceptable to increase reward horizons when prices move in our favor. A risk position is always long or short at the current price, not the execution price. Assess risk at each price level and adjust levels accordingly. Adjust risk levels using trailing stops when an asset’s price moves in the desired direction. Never allow a profitable position to become a loser by expanding the original risk level. Protect capital by protecting profits and have the fortitude to take small losses by sticking to the original game plan. When prices move contrary to expectations, admit to yourself you were wrong. When prices move in your favor, do not allow greed to creep into the plan. There are always other opportunities in volatile markets Most traders or investors will miss many trades and investment opportunities. Do not despair! In volatile markets, there is always another opportunity right around the corner. Markets reflect the geopolitical and economic landscapes. The dynamics have dramatically changed with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Elevated volatility in markets across all asset classes will be the norm, not the exception. When approaching markets, do the work and write down a plan. Make sure it has a logical risk-reward balance that reflects price variance before executing a buy or sell order. Follow the rules by sticking to your plan. Eliminate fear and greed emotions by establishing comfortable risk-reward levels. A successful approach to trading and investing requires a portfolio approach. No one trade or investment should determine overall results. There are no guarantees in any markets, but following rules, sticking to a plan, and eliminating emotions will improve your chances of long-term success. Be careful in markets as the dynamics have changed. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPXEducation
by Andy_Hecht
1
US30 Intra-Week Analysis March 7th 2022Last week we saw a lot less volume in the market compared to previous weeks due to the russian invasion and all the recent news setting into the price. Which is why we saw price correct and range between the key levels 33000 and 34000. This week price looks like it has neutral bias until we break out in either direction so if we see a break and closure below 33000 expect price to continue bearish and vice versa if we see a break and closure above 34000.
U
by Itskaleel