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Bonds Soar off the Russia/Ukraine ConflictBonds have soared as risk off sentiment prevails as the Ukraine conflict intensifies. Russian forces are bearing down on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine and civilian casualties are mounting. ZN has blasted off from highs at 127'08, through 127'22, and well into the 128 handle. We have cleared 128'01, the first level in the 128's, and have just broken through 128'10. With such a strong bull impulse, it is difficult not to anticipate a pullback or sideways currection at this point. We are likely to at least range at current levels, between 128'01 and 128'11, with a ceiling at 128'24. If not, expect a retracement to 127'22. Worst case, it is certainly possible that we will retrace the entire move to 127'08 (recall that gold did this just last week).
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
SPY StraddleOn the short term this looks like a textbook bull pennant Long term however it's a bear pennant (kind of?), But not a textbook one, that massive dip and massive rally messes with it I expect us to make a major move up or a major move down today or tomorrow SOTU is catalyst enough today for that imo I'm leaning towards up. The charts are better for it and I think Ukraine news is good for US, as we covered earlier Looking forward to your thoughts when you read this tldr 437.33 turns into support that holds solidly we go pew up to 440, then it's a straight shot to 447 Now if it breaks to the downside, 430.39 is the support, and if that fails we tumble all the way down to 412 "gap down" as they say Bears will do puts, Bulls will do calls, smart / safe money will do both with a straddle
AMEX:SPY
by taorgtfo
Ruble Where You Going ? Hi traders: With the tension between Russia and Ukraine, we can expect the market to be volatile and moving during an uncertainly time. As we know, USD is a safe haven currency, and here on USDRUB, we can see clear bullish price action on the bigger time frames. With many bullish impulse phases follow by bullish continuations, price is getting push up to all time highs. This is where usually price will consolidate, and potential to continue or reverse back down. For me, my personal options is leaning more upside and continuation up move. What we should wait for is some sort of bullish continuation correction on the lower time frames, to confirm the upside move. With the situation between the two countries may get worse, USDRUB could on route to a new highs. thank you
by jojofang0901
37
Oil Short?! Yes thats right folks... and here's why. In this video we explain why we are now looking to take short positions in the Oil market. TLDR: - The fears of global supply problems from Russia/Ukraine conflict could be overplayed and that supply is able to be met by other suppliers increasing their supply within OPEC+ if Oil prices become a problem (which they already are). - Politically high Oil prices are bad for governments so expect some action from policy makers if the price continues to rise much more (already seeing these reports now). - Technical Analysis suggests we are entering levels of historic resistance. - Last week (at the height of the Russia / Ukraine outbreak the Oil market sold off significantly from the current levels we are at right now. Let me know in the comments below your own thoughts on where Oil is headed next.
TVC:USOILShort
by JoelWarby
5
Supply Concerns Lift OilOil has blasted off from yesterday's levels where it gapped up to the mid 90's. We found support at 95.24, and smashed through the next level at 96.88. After that, we made run back to $100, but are facing some resistance before that. The world is rearing from Russian supply fears, as it is in the top five oil producing countries (number two in 2022 right after the US by some sources, see here and here ). There is little in the way of fundamental data to suggest lower oil prices. However, if do see a technical retracement, then 95.24 should hold, if not, there is a vacuum zone back to 92.03. Our next target is $100, then $101.46.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
2
Geopolitical Conflict Hits StocksStocks have begun to dip off of stepped up efforts with Russia to move in on Ukraine. Russian forces are close to the capital, Kyiv, and markets are reacting. We have strong safe haven inflows, as per bonds and gold, and the S&P 500 has just rejected a relative high at 4389. The Kovach OBV was increasing, but has curved over with the rejection. If we do find support at current levels, watch for a bull wedge or other bull consolidation pattern to form under 4389. If we retrace further, 4245 should provide support. If we are able to break out from 4389, 4440 is our next target, but this is not likely for today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Gold Consolidates as War Pressure Ramps UpThe price of gold is consolidating in a range between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1922.32 and 38.2% Fibonacci at 1890.01, as peace talks are threatened by Russia's intensified aggression . Depending on how the peace talks develop next, a breakout above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci may be attempted, though this is then likely to be followed by a pullback to the resistance-turned-support at 1922.32. Conversely, a breakdown below the lower limit of the channel could allow for a subsequent dropdown towards the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci, which is about to be crossed by the 100-day MA (in blue) soon. This would make the 1890.01 threshold an even more prominent turning point, which is already evident given its close proximity to the psychologically significant level at 1900.00.
G
by Trendsharks
Buy the Russian stock market dipThe Exchange-traded funds RSX represent a basket of equities, allowing investors to get exposure to a broad basket or sector of stocks with one purchase. This ETF is designed to track MVIS Russia Index, meaning that it holds stocks of Russian companies or those who generated at least half of their revenue from the country. It is probable that tensions diminish over the coming years because this level of uncertainty isn't good for the global economy and it is in the best interest of all parties to amend relationships after the dust settles. We will enter this trade with a 3 year time horizon.
R
by Pageinvestments
5
natural gas still holding on to supply fears?on the daily time frame a head and shoulders pattern is forming. on the 1hr time frame natural gas broke the up trend, and is need for a correction. there is a regular bullish divergence forming on the 1hr as well. A regular bullish divergence indicates a bull back in the market. This is about a 100 pip move, looking for price to go back near the trendline.I am looking for an entry after this pull back, may not be ready until London X New york session. The market calmed a little when there was a discussion about releasing oil from storage in a bid to mitigate supply disruption. The release may be between 60 and 70 million barrels of oil. The EIA (International Energy Agency) is set to hold a meeting today 03/01/2022 about roles members can play in stabilizing oil markets
FX:NGASLong
by UnknownUnicorn11654040
3
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) TA 22.3.1Bitcoin grew yesterday as I watched it move fast. In this uptrend, it has broken its downtrend and needs to stabilize above it. If the new news of the war is not established and transmitted, it can increase the resistance between 45,000 and 51,000. Bitcoin support is in the range of 41,500. If the bitcoin uptrend slows down, altcoins can start moving well upwards. Recommend to see last idea about BITCOIN sharp move forcast ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Sadegh Ahmadi: @SDQ_Crypto 📅 1.Mar.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better❤️
Long
by SDQ_Crypto
Buy the Dip? The stock market just did THIS!One of my must trusted signals for false breakout opportunities just triggered in the stock market on both the Nasdaq NASDAQ:QQQ and S$P 500 AMEX:SPY . If you are a regular viewer of my content you have seen me talk about this setup before as it is one of my most trusted fundamental strategies of my trading. Win or lose THIS signal we got on the Russia/Ukraine FUD is going to go down as a textbook example I will use to teach the setup for months and years to come! I am super excited to share with my viewers in real time!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by norok
7
short term buy on oilwaiting for the oullback to finish to look for an entry. May enter before market closes or after it opens around 6pm. going for about 150 pips to (8.oo to see if it will break this pervious resistance. Russia has not begun backing down from Ukriane. they bombed Kharkiv, Ukrainian. Dozens were killed and hundreds wounded. ALso there is a possibility that oil will be pulled out of storage. U.S. storage is already the lowest its been since 2002. Supply fears causes oil to go up, they will have a decision by today or tomorrow.
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn11654040
1
short term buy on gold volatile marketLooking for entry possible after market opens back up, waiting on brief pull back. Russia bombed kharkiv, Ukraine. dozens were killed and hundreds were wounded. Gold is a safe haven asset so if investors see fear in the market their money is put in gold, Russia not backing down will cause it to soar. OPEC+ is making a decision by tomorrow to release oil from storage. Our supply is the lowest its been since 2002. supply shortage scares also makes gold go up. Depending on your daily goal, I am going for 1,000 pips at 1909. I will watch and see if it goes back to second tp
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn11654040
BITCOIN THE WARRIORDue to the confliction between Ukraine and Russia , I decided to look back in to the history , and see what happened to Bitcoin , Gold and SPX when we had war or confliction. Here is the list of the wars that I mentioned in the chart : ( I understand of the ongoing wars and some other I did not mentioned ! ) 1 . Iran shoots down US drone aircraft 2 . Iranian General Assassinated 3 . Operation Martyr Soleimani 4 . Nagorno-Karabakh war 5 . Tigray War 6 . Fall of Kabul According to my studies all of the war news has been bullish for the 3 assets ! (Except for one time for gold on Tigray War which can be ignored. ) Just to be said , this would be far different if we get in to a world war ! The question is : in case of starting a war between Russia and Ukraine , what would happen to cryptocurrencies ? As a technical analyst , we always look backward and see what happened in history , then we get some information and that's where analysis starts ! So , we can say BTC and Gold are safe assets during the war , and also SPX ( focus on arms stock! they are to sell weapons ! ) Its just the same for fuel carriers and oil! Be aware , this is not financial advise , It's just a study of what happened in the history and there is no guarantee for now.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by JavadisHere
3
Rare Arbitrage Play in the Works? Possible insane melt up?TTF Futures are currently at 115, and to get the US MMbtu equivalent of 31-33$, and they peaked at around 60-63$ US Natural gas equivalent ( For reference those are BOE of nearly 300-330$). Around December of last year the US Started to export Natural gas in the highest amounts in a long time to take advantage of the higher prices and to help europe keep its lights on. Price difference alone may not trigger the arbitrage, but rather possible sanctions. We already had the NordStream 2 pipeline cancelled, and eithe Russia might trigger a cancellation of the first Nordstream 1 pipeline as well as supplying of oil and gas to countries that sanctioned it OR the Western Europe/Nato powers might do it. No doubt that oil would have a melt up situation. But natural gas to could have a huge melt up far more then oil as with no gas available in europe they would be forced to use us gas, and this could get rid of the insane spread. If Russia turns of its pipeline, we could see europe gas prices rocket to 200-400$ if all gas is turned off ( 1200-2400$ BOE ). These prices are obviously quite crazy, so it would make no sense for europeans to buy their local gas when America can supply for far less If all of europe does this " save money hack " however buy the law of arbitrage the spreads would largely diminish over time.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by NuancesofTrading
1