GAZPROM STOCK.LONG SETUP.Hello ladies and gentleman,according my analysis To GAZPROM STOCK .there is agreat probability long to 184 RUB.
Russia
$3K gold in 2024 according to Citi $3K gold in 2024 according to Citi
Citi bank suggests that gold prices might experience a surge of up to 50%, reaching $3,000 per ounce this year.
This projection is based on two potential scenarios. The first involves a continuation of central banks, particularly those in emerging markets like China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Brazil, increasing their gold accumulation. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks have maintained a trend of purchasing over 1,000 tons of net gold for two consecutive years. Citi thinks that a doubling of this tonnage is possible.
The second scenario considers the possibility of global conflicts intensifying, leading buyers to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.
Interestingly, today, the US has started warning its allies about Russia's potential deployment of a nuclear anti-satellite space weapon this year. CNN sources reveal Russia's efforts to develop a weapon capable of destroying commercial and government satellites by generating a massive energy wave upon detonation.
$RUGRES 'August/2023 Accumulation'ECONOMICS:RUGRES
The latest data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) report shows that Russia’s central bank increased its gold reserves in August, restoring reserves back to previous levels from earlier this year.
“IMF IFS data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes in August,” according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst at the World Gold Council.
Analysts reacted positively to the data, but some raised questions regarding Russia's gold production and where the precious metal is going.
XAUUSD GOLDPair : XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves at Demand Zone or Fibonacci Level - 61.80%. Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from Lower Trend Line. It has completed the Break of Structure and making its Retracement
short term sell Crude oilCrude oil Gapped upon market opening due to Russia making a statement on Sunday stating they will potentially do a 50,000 Barrell cut a day for the month of December; amid Moscow suspended about 2/3 of its main export grade of crude from parts due to a storm and scheduled maintenance on Fridays.
Oil gapped to 72.47 touching our first TP on the pivot point.
Looking for a sell to P as I look for confirmation of which direction the market will be going this week
on the 30 minute time frame price is below R! indicating a price correction another confirmation of a sell to 70.63 and breaking of the minor structure trend line. If price respects the P expect price to go to R1 and possibly R2. If prices breaks P then expect price to fall to $70.63
Looking for sell entry around 72.15 area
Exploring the Unassailable Position of the U.S. DollarTechnical analysis
From the point of view of technical analysis, we believe that the EUR/USD pair has completed the corrective wave Ⓑ after reaching the price range of 1.0945-1.097, which has also been a strong resistance zone over the last few days.
After which, we expect that EUR/USD will continue to correct within the impulsive wave © until it reaches a strong support zone.
Fundamental Analysis
Thanks to positive macroeconomic data released by government agencies in the US and European Union and lower oil prices in recent weeks, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2024 has increased sharply.
Moreover, the US economy has shown remarkable resilience relative to Europe in recent months, reflected in the faster rate of decline in inflation, job growth, and foreign direct investment. In addition, according to Adobe, Americans spent a record $5.6 billion on online shopping, up 5.5% from November 23, 2022, which will also help increase the attractiveness of the USD relative to the EUR.
Show your support by liking👍, following✅, sharing🙌, and commenting✍! Feel free to share your ideas and charts below. Your engagement is crucial in spreading the word and maintaining the relevance of the content. Thanks for being an essential part of this community!
Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
🌟 Russian Trading Wisdom with a Vodka Shot of Humor! 🇷🇺🍸☕️📈Priviet Traders! 🚀
Get ready for a hilarious journey with me, the FXPROFESSOR, as I dive into the world of trading with a Russian twist! In my latest video, I embody a quirky Russian analyst who lives by the motto: "Have patience, the Kremlin wasn't built in a day." 🏰⏳
But wait, there's more! I spice up my trading session with a unique blend of coffee and vodka, proving that the best trading strategies come with a little fun! 🍸☕️
👀 While analyzing those mesmerizing 1-minute candles, I'll take you through an uproarious 'altcoin strategy' that you won't want to miss: "Buy everything so you don't miss any pumps!" 💰🚀 This strategy is all in good fun, reminding us not to take the crypto world too seriously.
And what's a Russian-themed trading session without some foot-tapping Russian music? 🎶 It's all about feeling happy, having a good laugh, and perhaps learning a thing or two along the way.
favorite Russian song: www.youtube.com
Exclusively you also get the Ultimate ALTS strategy:
🚀 "Buy Everything! Never miss a Pump again" 💸🌐
So, sit back, enjoy the show, and remember, trading can be as enjoyable as it is profitable! 🤣💹
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR ♡
Remember, while laughter is a great asset in life, serious strategy and research are your best allies in navigating the crypto markets. 😉 this is just for fun, don't start drinking vodka!
Buy This Bargain Before It's GoneIn early October 2023, we updated our previous forecast for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust for the current year. Its price, after a short-term breakthrough of the triangle pattern (marked as (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E)), returned above its lower border, and a new upward trend began despite the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the world, mainly due to the Hamas war against Israel.
On the other hand, in mid-November, US inflation data was released, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the Fed's policy. So, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.2% for the 12 months ending in October, one of the lowest values in recent years.
The sharp decline in this indicator was primarily due to a significant decrease in prices for both energy and used cars and trucks.
Ultimately, these data triggered a short squeeze on government bonds, which had a positive impact on the stock market. Currently, on the daily timeframe (1D) of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, a gap has formed in the price range from $441 to $446, which, according to our estimates, will be closed in the next 1-2 weeks.
On a more global scale
Thanks to positive macroeconomic data released by government agencies in the US and European Union and lower oil prices in recent weeks, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2024 has increased sharply.
We believe that the decline in 2-year Treasury yield will continue in the near future, which will also support the continued momentum of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. Moreover, financial market participants should pay closer attention to changes in the yield curve, which is becoming increasingly important and one of the most accurate fundamental tools for predicting changes in sentiment on Wall Street.
As soon as the 2-year Treasury rate approaches the 10-year Treasury rate, this will provoke investors and traders to exit long positions in bonds and more aggressively buy ETFs, shares of technology and pharmaceutical companies.
Conclusion
We believe the pace of the US economic recovery will continue to accelerate and expect the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to reach $463-$464 by the end of 2024.
Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
Ruble value till the new year holidaysAs it seems ruble markets are quiet as a silent hill, no complications about destiny of this want to be world reserve currency.
Wheat and Fertilizer Futures: A Cash Cow for War Mongers In this layout I have Black Sea Wheat and Corn, Australian and Ukrainian Wheat, and 4 main Fertilizer (UREA) Futures.
Conflict and Wars are good ways for Financial Institutions like Black Rock and State Street Corp oration to make a lot of money. What better way than to destroy the wheat fields/silos themselves and profit at the same time?
These markets are built in blood and they are sitting on Advanced Fibonacci Blueprints showing who is really in control.
Volatility may be seen as many Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Wheat supplies will undergo straining for the foreseeable future.
Analysis of the Russian ruble in the long term (weekly)
The weekly price floor of the ruble will definitely be tested again (0.006544).
The price at its weekly bottom is completely empty of buyers. Shadvi Boland is also a confirmation of this.
But now is not the time
At this time, due to the Israeli-Palestinian war, the ruble has a price break and can experience growth.
But Russia is getting weaker and weaker.
Not financial advice
$GOLD Index - Q3/2023 *3M (Quarterly)
Looking at TVC:GOLD on the 3M(Monthly) Tf(Time-frame)
from an investor perspective view of positioning;
(long-term investing on the yellow stone)
we can see it sitting at no men's land at the current price,
as well Changing Character and Breaking Market Structer (Lower Low) in price action ;
(Lows of Q2)
Despite its Bearish Price Action on *3M ,
States and Central Banks around the World have continued accumulating,
spreading wide their balance sheets in-to TVC:GOLD Reserves .
And so have done many another States,
including 2 out of three Global Superpowers of
China ECONOMICS:CNGRES and Russia ECONOMICS:RUGRES
Set-up is there for one more move up in AFKS Russian large Investment company AFK Systems has nice technical potential for at least one more bullish leg up towards 19-21 region.
Price could have ended its correction started in Aug'23 and could be forming the bottom of the new cup. In order to confirm this scenario, we need price to first hold its Sep's low at 16.60 and move decisively above its 50D MA, breaking out above 17.80 low cheat pivot.
Not positioned in this name as for now, but will be looking to start entering if price moves closer to 17.80, consolidates for a day or two and breaks out above highs of 9th Oct.
MoscowExchange is prone to take a rest soonRecord new account openings on MoscowExchange during 2023, has played its role in almost 90% stock advance since the year start.
The stock and volume dynamics show strong uptrend with good signs of accumulation on a weekly chart.
My chart analysis shows, that price has reached an important resistance zone of its strongest uptrend wave 3 at around 182 area and is now to be expected to re-base again, correcting ideally to its mid-term area of support: 155-166 area.
We may also notice that price looks extended from its 10w MA, that is a historical cautious sign for continuation of short and mid-term advance. We may also notice, that in Mar23 once price went above 50D MA by 18% that led to 2 months of correction.
Despite my bearish leaning short-term, my analysis still has room for price to extend to higher resistance targets to 195-200 area as an alt. wave 3 target.
Trading thesis : if price breaks bellow 21ema, preferably with volume pick-up, I would expect a move down to 166-155 area. If price decides to instead move above 185, I expect it to find resistance in 195-200.
POSI - Russian leader in cybersecurity The actuality of cybersecurity for Russia in the absence of global brands becomes even sharper and provides unique opportunities for the best local provider to capture growing market share.
Stock price technical perspective still illustrates strong up-trend, with some caution signals to be mindful about if one decides to trade it.
On a weekly time-frame, price is solidly supported above the 10w MA, that is crucial for me to consider trading the upside of any stock. Although, I cautious about important fibonacci resistance levels at 2500 area. I price will not be able to follow-through its recent break-out attempt from 5 weeks flat base and move above 2500 zone, than I have hard times considering wave 4 finished, and will expect more deep and long correction (probably to 2070-1850 support zone).
That being sad, in my trading, I try not to forecast, but to follow the price and volume dynamics. And when the set-up is favourable and I have positive traction in my personal portfolio, I will take it without any hesitation.
Thesis : Above 2415 line and I expect price to follow-through and move towards 2600-2800 resistance zone. Below this line and I am out, and wait either for more tight entry set-up or stepping on the sidelines at all.
$BRN1! -Are you Ready for Winter's Storms ahead ?!- The most recent conflict on the Middle East between Israel and Palestine(Hamas)
has caused TVC:GOLD and Brent Crude Oil (futures) ICEEUR:BRN1! price to jump 4% .
This increase risk on Geo-Political spectrum is messing up with our Short in ICEEUR:BRN1! .
Short Call idea was shared on bingX copy-trade community where 2.000 people saw the Short trade opportunity.
Congratulations to those who took action.
(Calm before Winter's Storm Idea;
Russia & Saudi Arabia two of the largest World's Oil Producers steady keeping production cuts)
We have already partially taken profits off our trade before conflicts occurrence,
leaving the position opened by aiming at full TP profits at Golden Zone
(which may not be reached now due to the conflict)
*** NOTE
This is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research with your own diligence and
consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity
with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea.
Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and
journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
HHRU - Leading job-search company hints that... ... Russian labor market is far from being week.
Due to massive wave's extensions beyond classic fibonacci levels, I am not placing big confidence on my EW count, but solely from market price and volume dynamics there is an argument to be made for price starting new advance to at least prior Sep's highs.
Although, I am not a fan of big late-August weekly reversal candle, creating overhead supplies (potential downside pressure from those buyers who bough the Aug's highs and still holding loses), I do like how price finds support on ascending 10w MA line, that coincides with an ideal area for wave "iv" correction's support zone. So from the mid-term bullish price trend nothing is wrong or to be consider abnormal.
Zooming in to the Daily landscape, we may observe, how the selling pressure subsides and price tries to form the right side of the potential "cup". Volume profile looks like how we want it to be with higher selling volume on the left side of the "cup" and higher buying volume on the right side of it. That potentially illustrate that sellers and their shares are being absorb by the buyers, that are starting to dominate moving the price up.
General thesis : until price holds above 50D MA and in particular above 3050 area, at least one more wave to 4300 or even to 4900-5150 resistance zone could be considered. Short/Mid-Term thesis is wrong bellow 4300 zone.
I did started building position in early October, I will consider holding if the price will not move below -3 and -5% from my average cost. I don't have any issues with stepping aside being stoped out and re-entering at the higher prices, if the price so wishes. All I need is tight risk-management parameters and price cooperating with my thesis in timely manner.
Lagger that refuses to fall and dreams about greatnessThe world's largest producer of nickel and palladium has had rather lackluster performance in 2023 advancing half as the general Russian Index. And still I cannot get over his accurate price structure that hints that better days are potentially ahead.
I want the price to start forming the right side and later the handle of a cup, and break out above important Sep'22 and Sep'23 high - 17240 area. If price will not be able to hold Sep'23 15730 low, I would want the area above 15250 and 200D line to act as support. Bellow this levels the analysis is to be considered wrong and invalid.
Trading thesis : cow-boy type longs (higher failure risk) may be considered above 16430 area with 3 and 5% stop levels.
MAGN - Setting up for advance in Q4 MAGN had a nice run since Oct22 advancing +157% since the bottom to recent Sep's top. Is the rally over, or do we have at least one more advance potential? My technical thesis supports the latter.
I don't have high confidence in my ElliotWave count on this chart, due to price extensions beyond classical fibonacci levels, but from pure price and volume dynamics, one may suggest that price is in a base building process for at least one more advance to 59-61 area and even above it.
Having a closer look on a Weekly chart, we may notice big green accumulation bars and good weekly bar closes during price advance and relatively low selling volume when price corrects. Notice how price gets supported every time it moves bellow this line - all that are signs of buyers proliferation and accumulation happening.
For the confirmation of my thesis, I need price to stay above previous low (49) and decisively move above 53.5 pivot with volume support. That would put me into the game with tight stop-parameters. If the price will dive bellow 49 area, than my short/mid-term bullish thesis is wrong and price needs more time to digest its advance (if not something major bearish is in the cards for Russian equities).
P.S. orange straight lines are my previous buy (bellow the bars) and sells points (above). Double bar above means complete exit from the position.
RASP - It seems market is counting on dividends...... to be payed.
Although the decision is not yet certain due to redomiciliation of head-company Evraz not yet launched by the management, my ElliotWave projection and price and volume analysis, shows that at least one more move higher to Aug's high and even beyond to 430-460 area could be considered by local short-term swing traders and or even position investors if personal risk-management parameters can tolerate higher single digit volatility.
Thesis : if price holds above 319-307 support zone, and more preferable above 50D MA (red-line on the chart), any potential break-out above 360 pivot may be actionable for longs with tight 3-5% stoploss rules.
YNDX - Ideal support zone to start the launch YNDX has landed perfectly into the lowest border of my ideal support zone of my wave (iv) projection.
Until 2320 holds, I will expect the price to:
1. Move above the short-term 8/21 EMA and long 50D MA and 10W MA;
2. Form the right side of the cup with buying volume predominating above any selling volume;
3. Any low-cheat/cheat or handle area break-out pivot to emerge, providing the low-risk entry point.
What also provides me with confidence to expect the re-launching of the upward moving trend (although price is bellow the 10w MA) is the absence of any meaningful selling volume. The correction so far is below 20% and looks orderly.
The analysis and the investment thesis is fully wrong bellow 2320 area.
IMOEX Marco technical - One more massive correction or...?
My macro work on Russian MOEX Index illustrates how ElliotWave in conjunction with major fibonacci retracements can be useful in providing the context or the operational frame work for every investor and trader to operate and execute one's strategy.
Starting from the market Oct'98, we may observe how the price structure has accurately finished its cyclical five wave move lasting almost exactly 23 years to Nov'21 finishing its run just 2.5% bellow an proper (though extended) target for the cyclical wave "V".
The EW theory, first elaborated by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1930s, and later perfected to the most practical investing/trading principals by Avi Gilburt from elliottwavetrader.net, states that most of corrective structures develop in three waves: A-B-C.
After finishing what I consider to be first cyclical macro five wave advance in Nov21, the price moved into deep and abrupt correction, straight to the ideal golden ratio
(0.618) support zone where it is most typical for any correction (macro and micro) to establish a bottom. That was not particular to average character of the three wave corrective structures (being so abrupt), but the support parameters were met.
Never the less in my global technical thesis, I still lean towards the macro correction from the Nov'21 highs NOT being complete and the price is yet to start its third wave decline to 1650 (double bottom) or even 930 zone. I am 55/45 on that regard.
That being sad, I cannot completely rule out the possibility of price to have established long-term macro bottom on Feb22 and that we may be already in the very early process of the new (generational?) bull-cycle. As strange as it may sound in today's global political landscape, new macro generational potential for IMOEX, could be very much considered in the realms of several important circumstances happing in Russia:
1. Currency devaluation (bullish for equities);
2. Inflation (typically bullish for equities);
3. Internal barriers to withdraw capital (indirectly bullish);
4. Redomiciliation of large corporations and their capital;
5. Record interest of citizen to local stock market, resulting in record breaking numbers of new accounts opening on Moscow Stock Exchange.
6. Perspective budget deficit that will result in point #1 (bullish for stock)
Macro parameter to differentaite between Macro-Bearish and Macro-Bullish scenarios is simple: until price is bellow 3700 area, macro-bearish case cannot be rule-out.
The Mid/Short-Term Analysis
Until price decisively breaks 2800, I cannot consider the mid-term bullish advance in either cycle wave "B" (macro bearish case), or wave (3) (in generational-bullish case) toped and expect at least one more wave up to 3370-3650 area in Q4 or Q1'24.
It is yet early to consider that price has finished its Sep's correction at 3000 area and until price is bellow 3220 resistance zone, I expect one more decline to 2800. If price moves above 3200, than I will shift to yellow/green alt. scenario that wave 4 correction has finished and the price is on its wave to new 2023 highs.
CHMF - One more Russian metalurgic play for Q4-Q1'24 From a both, technical and fundamental perspectives, It looks like Russian metalurgic and extraction complex sets-up for the next wave higher in this Q4, or maybe early next year.
Maybe it is because of rubble current and future potential weakness, or because of the dividend that these companies (CHMF, MAGN, NLMK etc) pay or are planning to, we may observe rather neat base structures being in formation within supportive further advance ElliotWave structure.
My general thesis for Severstal is that the price has bottomed in running flat type corrective structure (running flat are rare in EW and are signs of a bullishness) and now is basing for break-out to new this year highs closer to 1530-1580 zone where I may see next resistance zone.
Please have look how price weekly advance is made on burst up in volume profile and how scares volume is, when price stops and digests its move. Holding above 10w line is crucial for me entertaining longs in any position and we may see how buyers actively support this moving average, not letting the price close bellow this line.
My personal plan, is to start building position above 1400 zone, if price breaks out with volume, having tight risk-management parameters within 3-5% breathing room.
I am perfectly fine staying out on the side line if the price will not cooperate or stops me out and waiting for the next low and time-right risk entry spot.
