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USDUAH Analysis USDUAH Analysis with Geopolitical Context: This chart represents the USD to UAH (Ukrainian Hryvnia) exchange rate, showing a significant trend of USD strengthening against the UAH. The chart provides a clear visual on future potential movements, marked by key dates that align with potential geopolitical events. Key Dates and Events: September 2025 (09/01/25) - Conflict "Freeze" and Temporary Peace: Scenario: As we discussed, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could enter a phase of "freezing" around this time. This period might not bring complete peace but rather a significant reduction in active military engagements. Impact on Currency: The temporary halt in hostilities could stabilize the UAH slightly, preventing further devaluation. However, the economic scars of the war might keep the exchange rate volatile. May 2029 (05/10/29) - Resumption of Conflict or New Escalations: Scenario: After a few years of relative calm, a renewed phase of conflict or escalation between Ukraine and Russia could begin. This may be driven by unresolved territorial disputes or political changes in either country or their allies. Impact on Currency: This would likely lead to another sharp depreciation of the UAH, as markets react to the increased uncertainty and economic strain of renewed military action. May 2032 (05/03/32) - Potential Full-Scale Conflict: Scenario: The situation could deteriorate into a more severe conflict or widespread regional instability. This period might mark the beginning of a more protracted and intense phase of war. Impact on Currency: A full-scale conflict would severely weaken the UAH, potentially pushing it to historical lows. The Ukrainian economy would face enormous pressure, leading to further devaluation. April 2037 (04/10/37) - Stabilization and Possible Recovery: Scenario: By this time, the conflict might have resolved, or at least the region could have entered a period of prolonged stability. This could be due to international interventions, peace treaties, or significant changes in political leadership. Impact on Currency: The UAH might begin a slow recovery if stability is restored and economic rebuilding starts. However, this recovery would be gradual and dependent on the extent of damage done to the Ukrainian economy. Conclusion: UAH will likely experience significant volatility over the next decade, heavily influenced by the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe. Each of the marked dates corresponds to potential shifts in the conflict with Russia, with major implications for the UAH. Investors and policymakers should closely monitor these dates and prepare for various scenarios, ranging from temporary stability to severe economic downturns. These forecasts underscore the importance of strategic planning in uncertain times. The potential "freeze" in conflict might offer temporary relief, but the possibility of renewed or intensified conflict in later years looms large, making the future of the UAH highly uncertain.
Short
by trushkovskiy
4 Political Tensions Fueling Gold Prices As gold aims to test record high again, let's look at some of the political issues possibly driving the price action. Iran Tensions Escalate: The Pentagon has dispatched a guided missile submarine and a carrier strike group, to the Middle East. This move follows Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel after a senior Hamas leader was killed in Tehran last month. With nearly two weeks passing without a retaliation, the atmosphere remains tense. US Political Landscape: A recent New York Times/Siena poll places Vice President Kamala Harris, who is on a swing state tour, ahead of former President Donald Trump by four points in key battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, with nearly three months left until the election, the race remains fluid. Trump is set to appear in an interview with Elon Musk on the X platform, looking for a shift in momentum. US Economic Concerns: Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned that U.S. consumers might become “dispirited” if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts. He emphasized that once consumer sentiment turns negative, recovery becomes challenging. However, Moynihan acknowledged that Bank of America no longer anticipates a recession. Ukraine’s Military Advance: Ukraine’s top military commander reported control over 1,000 square kilometers of Russia’s neighboring Kursk region, with Russia evacuating over 76,000 residents from western Kursk. Russia is now evacuating residents from a second border region as Ukraine's surprise week-long offensive within Russian territory intensifies.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
ARKHAMSecond highest percentage of usage for Arkham is found in the Russian Federation. I'd predict Russia is using this website to the fullness of its abilities to discover information about rich people, or other groups that hold large amounts of cryptocurrency. Not necessarily a good thing when Russian Federation uses this site more than other places considering the state of extremism Russia is moving towards. Data according to info on crunchbase.com* The logo of arkham looks like a pentagon, similar to things Russian's like to attempt to attack, hack, and infiltrate.
COINBASE:ARKMUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot
Yield CurveThe 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions have been favorable to a disaster by many measurements for some time now. Again, there are many unknown cross-currents beginning to work their way into the global economy. On top of that, the FED is raising interest rates in less than two weeks.
TVC:US10Y
by The_Arena_Trader
11
Macro Monday 55 - European gateway to M.East & Russia Macro Monday 55 Turkey - Europe’s gateway to the Middle East and Russia Turkey holds a vital strategic position as the bridge between Europe and the Middle East. Turkey’s economy has been making leaps and bounds over the past decade and the war in Ukraine has resulted in significant increase in trade through the country, benefiting its logistic companies and economic status. As one of the main corridors from Europe to the Middle East and beyond, let’s see what this blossoming trade Centre can offer us. Russia’s Trade Enabler Turkey has become a crucial transit point for Russian goods, especially since the war. Its strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia allows it to facilitate trade routes between all these regions. As a result, Russian produce has increasingly passed through Turkey, benefiting both countries economically, and indirectly benefitting Europe. In June 2023, Turkey’s exports to Russia increased by 23.9%, reaching $848.4 million—a substantial surge compared to the previous year’s figure of $684.9 million. Moreover, during the first half of the year (January to June), Turkey’s exports to Russia more than doubled, reaching $4.9 billion compared to last year’s $2.6 billion. Despite a decline in imports, Russia remains Turkey’s largest trading partner in terms of goods purchased. Russia’s favor to Turkey during the currency crisis, including postponing a natural gas debt and recognizing Turkey as a reliable gas route to Europe, has further strengthened their economic ties Robust GDP Growth Turkey’s GDP expanded by 4.5% in 2023, driven by strong private consumption, increased investment, and government spending. Additionally, in 2021, Turkey achieved an impressive 11% annual GDP growth, making it the fastest-growing economy globally for the 2021 year. For the 2024 year a GDP growth rate of between 2.9% and 4% is expected depending on the authority advising. Amazingly, according to Trading Economics, the GDP annual growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 was 5.7%, a significant acceleration from the previous quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP rose by 2.4% in Q1. Demographics With a population of 85.8 million, Turkey has a sizable labor force and a young demographic profile. As of 2023, the median age of the Turkish population is 34 years, up from 28.3 in 2007. This youthful demographic profile contributes to productivity and economic dynamism. Produce and Exports Turkey’s top exports include refined petroleum oils, cars, jewelry, automotive parts, and trucks. Turkey has a complex and varied array of produce that contribute significantly to its versatile economy. Turkeys produce and exports are so diverse that they don’t appear to be a global leader in any one item, however In 2023, Turkey exported $12.3 billion worth of Refined Petroleum, making it the 24th largest exporter of this product globally. Refined Petroleum accounted for 12.1% of Turkeys total exports. Poverty Reduction Rapid economic growth has led to substantial poverty reduction. The poverty rate decreased from above 20% in 2007 to 7.6% in 2021. Investment Climate Turkey’s business-friendly environment attracts foreign direct investment (FDI). It offers incentives, a skilled workforce, and access to diverse markets. We can see that it has even bolstered relations with Russia and Europe during their conflict, being a go between, between the two. Tourism Tourism plays a crucial role, with Turkey being a popular destination for travelers and medical tourism. Turkey’s efforts to enhance its healthcare sector have positioned it as a prominent player in European medical tourism and now other continents are starting to travel here for affordable medical procedures. Resilience and Adaptation Despite challenges, Turkey continues to adapt to global economic shifts, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, emphasizing sustainability and resilience. The Chart NASDAQ TURKEY Index - NASDAQ:NQTR The NASDAQ Turkey Index is a float adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to track the performance of securities assigned to Turkey Subject chart - The chart speaks for itself. - We have broken out of long term downtrend and have a great trading opportunity with a 6:1 reward to risk when looking for a bounce from support. And that’s it for this week folks, we have the wind at our backs for the above trade and its worth reviewing logistic companies in Turkey. We will be looking out for them here. The liked of Reysas Lojistic - BIST:RYSAS has been on an absolute tear. All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how Turkey market is performing. I hope its helpful. PUKA
NASDAQ:NQTR
by PukaCharts
India's inflation data in focus as Modi meets Putin As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engages with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the focus back home will shift to the latest inflation figures. India has faced significant pressure from Western nations to distance itself from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. However, New Delhi has maintained its ties with Moscow. A key factor in this enduring relationship is energy cooperation, which has played a pivotal role in stabilizing fuel prices and, consequently, inflation in India. In May 2024, India's annual consumer inflation rate eased to 4.75%, down slightly from 4.83% in April. Projections for the upcoming data suggest a minor decrease to 4.70%. However, Reuters reports indicate a different trend. According to a poll of 54 economists, inflation in India likely edged up in June, breaking a five-month streak of declines. This increase is attributed to a surge in vegetable prices, driven by extreme weather conditions damaging crops. The poll forecasts inflation rising to 4.80% year-on-year in June, up from 4.75% in May. Food prices, which constitute around half of the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, are a significant factor in this anticipated rise. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. The USD/INR potentially maintains its bullish bias, staying above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Upside targets include 83.65, the upper boundary of its trading range. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at 83.40 serves as an initial support level for the pair.
by BlackBull_Markets
$3K gold in 2024 according to Citi $3K gold in 2024 according to Citi Citi bank suggests that gold prices might experience a surge of up to 50%, reaching $3,000 per ounce this year. This projection is based on two potential scenarios. The first involves a continuation of central banks, particularly those in emerging markets like China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Brazil, increasing their gold accumulation. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks have maintained a trend of purchasing over 1,000 tons of net gold for two consecutive years. Citi thinks that a doubling of this tonnage is possible. The second scenario considers the possibility of global conflicts intensifying, leading buyers to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold. Interestingly, today, the US has started warning its allies about Russia's potential deployment of a nuclear anti-satellite space weapon this year. CNN sources reveal Russia's efforts to develop a weapon capable of destroying commercial and government satellites by generating a massive energy wave upon detonation.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
$RUGRES 'August/2023 Accumulation'ECONOMICS:RUGRES The latest data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) report shows that Russia’s central bank increased its gold reserves in August, restoring reserves back to previous levels from earlier this year.⁠ ⁠ “IMF IFS data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes in August,” according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst at the World Gold Council. ⁠ ⁠ Analysts reacted positively to the data, but some raised questions regarding Russia's gold production and where the precious metal is going.⁠
ECONOMICS:RUGRES
by Mr_J__fx
short term sell Crude oilCrude oil Gapped upon market opening due to Russia making a statement on Sunday stating they will potentially do a 50,000 Barrell cut a day for the month of December; amid Moscow suspended about 2/3 of its main export grade of crude from parts due to a storm and scheduled maintenance on Fridays. Oil gapped to 72.47 touching our first TP on the pivot point. Looking for a sell to P as I look for confirmation of which direction the market will be going this week on the 30 minute time frame price is below R! indicating a price correction another confirmation of a sell to 70.63 and breaking of the minor structure trend line. If price respects the P expect price to go to R1 and possibly R2. If prices breaks P then expect price to fall to $70.63 Looking for sell entry around 72.15 area
TVC:USOILShort
by BraxtonExchang3