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BTC USD Russia & Ukraine Blah Blah Blah! Same Sh*t!The charts speak for themselves. Russia and Ukraine have been going at it for years, its always the same crap, sabre rattling, threats, then talks! As you can see I show how many times this has happened since 2014, its ridiculous and I couldn't post nowhere near every article, just a few out of thousands that I saw from 2014 to present, and not counting duplicates. I also compare the Dollar Strength to all this and how its touching the top of the trend line ready for another dip which means another nice move up for BTC. The BBWP is also at extreme lows not seen since the last run up from $8000 to $60000. The dollar is about to take a crap to some serious lows over the next few years as hyperinflation ramps up. Hold strong my friends, don't get shook. This is not professional trading advice, just my opinion. Like if you appreciate this chart and follow me for more updates on many other coins. Leave a comment below and tell me what you think. Thank you.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Bitgolder
4
SOL (Quick Analysis)SOL is currently forming lower highs and lower lows, this is a bullish falling wedge pattern. Considering BTC can stabilize or break $39k resistance we can see SOL and alts alike make more moves upwards. Watch for a candle to close above the resistance line for SOL or catch it at the support level . Please refer to my previous post for my view on BTC in order to understand market momentum. I've indicated a potential take profit zone if we see a bullish move, and the best buy zone incase of any correction. Trade safely
by sebastianjohansen
BEARISH VIEW INTACT! RISK OFF MOOD TO DRIVE EURJPY TO 125.400Bearish view still very much intact yet after EURO pushed up higher a few weeks ago, but clearly failed to break the descending channel's upper trendline. With the RUSSIA - UKRAINE crisis predicted to HIT the EUROZONE hard, we could see the safehaven currencies such as CHF, JPY & USD appreciate Vs the EURO. Based on this technical and fundamental analysis, we could see EURJPY steadily approach the 125.400 target area soon. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
BTC UpdateBTC, crypto and global markets give a good bounce in the last 24 hours after Biden's conference last night, as well as no more negative news from the Russia/Ukraine crisis. Must watch the crisis very closes as any news will affect BTC price. FED interest rate is another factor that can create speculation in the market. On chart we can see BTC broke the downtrend resistance and is now at a new resistance line at $39k and has a bullish MACD. ETH.D is up, BTC.D is down and MCAP is up, this is good sign as it shows more money is flowing into alts. Trade the range, trade safely.
by sebastianjohansen
2
Bitcoin Double Bottom? TA: 22.2.23Bitcoin is back below the downtrend and there are signs of weakness in the movement. Bitcoin can retest 36500 support. The important point is that if the movement towards 36,500 is slow, it may form a double bottom, but if the movement is sharp, it may lose 36,500 support. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Sadegh Ahmadi: @SDQ_Crypto 📅 23.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better
Short
by SDQ_Crypto
The Market at WarRussia Ukraine FUD is on all the news media and social media so today I dug up a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI on Tradingview. (It's pretty cool to go back and study the market since 1897 by the way.) One prevailing sentiment, especially after today's very muted reaction to the actual "invasion", is that the market will be fine as long as Putin does not proceed further. There is some historical justification to this sentiment. One of the oddities of the history of the market is that the stock market ROSE on Germany's invasion of Poland in 1939. It was only on the invasion of France, when things "got real", that the market had a major fear crash. I hope for no war at all and I do not think there will be one now from this. I think (I hope) it is well understood that war is the literal destruction of capital and lives; lives being the true capital of nations.
TVC:DJI
by norok
3
Brent Crude - $100 in sightBrent crude came within a whisker of $100 today for the first time since September 2014 before profit-taking kicked in. Will it eventually capture this level? There's been a number of times in recent months when $100 oil has been thrown around like it's a case of when rather than if it will hit that massive psychological level. The shortfall of supply from OPEC+ which continues to fail to hit its targets by ever-widening margins, combined with stronger than expected demand has created a very tight market and with no end in sight in the near term, the price has been naturally rising. November offered temporary reprieve, initially from the US-led coordinated SPR release as various countries sought to address the imbalance and lower prices, and then from the emergence of omicron which had a far greater impact. Once the threat of omicron was deemed to not be too great, the price started climbing again and it hasn't really stopped. The crisis now in Ukraine has just added to the rally, with traders now pricing in additional risk premium in the event of Russian supplies being hit. This brings us back to the initial question, will it surpass $100? There doesn't appear to be any lack of momentum, despite the price rallying 50% from the December lows. That was starting to emerge but the escalation at the Ukrainian border has seen that reverse. In terms of how far it can go if it does go above $100, that depends on what happens in Ukraine, not to mention if a new nuclear deal is signed between the US and Iran that could quickly see 1.3 million barrels per day back in the market. The next test could come around $105, where it saw plenty of activity almost a decade ago. The key will be the events on the border but in the meantime, momentum indicators could give us an idea of whether the break of $100 will accelerate the rally or not.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA
AUDUSD - Bearish Sentiments - Struggle to go UPHere is a new SELL Scenario, i expect a bearish reversal, it can fall immediately from the current position or fall around the pivot 0.7146 - 0.71700 But it is quite certain if nothing change around the fear in europe, dollar will be the safe heaven ! This pair will fall in the severals month JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
Short
by jamdejam
Macro market update - Traditional & CryptoHello everyone! In this idea we'll talk about the current macro environment and give updates on the most important markets. Although I am not a political analyst and definitely not an expert on the Russia/Ukraine conflict I need to start from there, as the situation seems to be getting worse by the day. For now, there is no clarity as to what will happen next, even though some sort of agreement/resolution is still possible, probabilities currently seem stacked in favor of a war breaking out. Of course, the impact this would have on markets would be significant and that's something markets are already pricing in. The key issue here is that the markets were already severely stressed due to high inflation (shortages), world economy drowning in debt and all sorts of issues, while bond yields were going higher. Therefore, it isn't just that conflict in isolation, it is the conflict at a time where nothing seems to be going right. Again, I have no idea what will happen or how other countries will try to interfere if Russia invades Ukraine, however there is no way there won't be all sorts of issues, especially around energy markets and especially in Europe. Just the uncertainty around energy prices which could cause another inflation spike, at a time where people are demanding governments and Central banks to do something about inflation, while markets are overvalued and are trending down, is not a good combination. With the current events it looks like the probability of the Fed raising rates by 50 bps in March has come down significantly. It is pretty normal to expect the Fed to not try and push things at this stage and even slow down a bit, as they don't want to spook the markets even more. From now on they can blame the fact that they aren't raising rates on the uncertainty caused by external factors which affect the global economy. The fact is that inflation was set to slow down dramatically in 2022 as demand has been going down, liquidity has been drying up and supply chain issues have eased significantly. Hence the Fed raising rates wouldn’t really do much to slow down inflation and it would be just a political move. At the same time, they know they won't really be able to raise rates above 2-3%, while the market is already indicating that in 2023 they will have to cut rates. The yield curve is already inverting and the 2y10y spread is already at 40bps. Essentially they’ve been trapped and a war would be able to get them out of their hole is a war. Why? Because in my opinion bond yields could fall dramatically as investors try to get into the most safe and liquid instruments, while the government will force the Fed to do anything it can to support it and tell it to forget fighting inflation. In the short term however, we could see a spike in bond yields (2y to 2-2.5% and 10y to 2.5-3%) as the market might initially anticipate higher inflation due to more spending by the government and higher inflation due to higher energy prices. Now the truth is that even though I do expect yields to come back down eventually and resume their long-term downtrend, I could easily be wrong and yields just go up from here. We are at a situation where oil prices could skyrocket and supply chains break down again, while governments trying to print their way out of this hole. At that stage I think the market will want to mostly hold US treasuries as they are the safest and most liquid instruments and it will refuse to create money (banks won’t be willing to lend to anyone other than the government). That would be the point where the market doesn't want to take risks and would be willing to not try and beat inflation. Someone might be now thinking 'well that's crazy, you always have to beat inflation'. Well, that's not always the case and certainly not the case for everyone. At situations like this most people are losing no matter what, as when there are shortages, waste of resources, unnecessary deaths and destruction, there are less winners than usual. Most people are used to living in an environment when the pie is growing, not shrinking... At the same time, it is clear that in the long term the ones that have to lose the most are bond holders, either nominal or real terms, although in the short term they might see tremendous gains once bonds bottom (yields top). The reason behind this is that there is no easy way to get out of this massive debt - low growth environment the global economy is in, without a massive fiat currency devaluation. So let's go through the charts one by one, starting with bonds. It's very clear that we are getting closer and closer to the key resistance. Bonds are at support (yields at resistance), but the strongest support is 6-7% lower (~50 bps). It is unclear what the bond market is signaling for now, but bonds and stocks going lower would a major sign of trouble in the short term. Commodities do look pretty strong, with Gold finally starting to shine, although until we get a close above 1960 we could expect some chop. My view on Gold is that it could get even all the way down to 1350 until it really breaks above 1960, however a breakout looks more and more likely. Oil is also looking pretty strong, even though it might be somewhat overvalued here. It is very clear that there supply of oil is pretty low and barely keeps up with demand, despite the fact that demand has gone down. A war would probably have a massive impact on the market, with Oil potentially making new ATHs in 2022-2023. Like I had mentioned before, the 90-110$ region has a decent amount of resistance, so we could continue to see some chop in that area. Based on the current price action, buying at 75$ would be best potential buy as it would be very hard to see lower prices. 55$ is also possible, but we'd need to see the global economy crash, while a war doesn't happen for it to get down there. Natural gas in Europe seems to have stabilized, and we could see it go down in case there are no sanctions on Russia or because the US starts exporting some of it to Europe. However we are seeing NatGas slowly trying to go higher in the US, and based on the current price action it looks like it will trade above 6.5$ in 2022-2023. The USD is at a weird place as against most developing market currencies it seems to be very strong, but against most developed market currencies weaker than expected. Unfortunately I wasn't able to share a index I created of the USD vs developing markets, but I am able to share an index of the USD vs developed markets, as the DXY isn't the best index out there. Based on it it is clear that the USD is trending higher in the medium term, but it has been going sideways for a very long time and has reached an area of resistance where it could potentially reversed. At the end of the day, there is a need for a weaker dollar and this current set of circumstances could definitely lead into a weaker dollar in the short term. Personally I don't believe that the USD is done, I do believe it has more upside and that it is the strongest currency out there... However I also do see the potential of it going much lower as 1) US prints more than the rest, 2) US rates fall harder than the rest, 3) Everyone tries to get away from the dollar strandard. Stocks aren't in a great place, as the Nasdaq 100 just made a new low and is flirting with its 400 DMA, the S&P 500 retested its lows and the 300 DMA, while the Russell 2000 looks like it just finished its throwback after a massive distribution and could fall another 15-20%. It is currently very clear that stocks are in a short-medium term downtrend, which is very close to turning into a full blow bear market if they continue lower. In my opinion the long term uptrend is intact, and as the market just managed to sweep some major lows and bounce, this could be the bottom. Or at least I should say it has to be it, or I see stocks going down another 10-20% before they full bottom. At the moment the S&P looks the strongest index out of the 3 and could potentially bottom around 3900-4000. This is the first place I'd be looking to buy, even if it is just for a bounce. For Nasdaq it is very unclear to me where the bottom might be, however for the Russell it is very clear that a potential bottom could come in the 1600-1740 zone. Essentially expecting for the 'vaccine' trade to reverse and buy the retest of the 2018-2020 highs. The one chart that is telling me there is more pain coming, is the VIX. Based on the current setup it looks like Volatility is in an uptrend and that there is a need for an explosive move higher before it reverses. It would actually be very odd for it to top here, after slowly going higher. In my previous analyses I talked about how I expect the VIX to get to 48 before it reverses, as given the current circumstances it is impossible for me to imagine that we won't see the market extremely fearful due to major changes in the world. Things aren't all that great and there is a lot of change going on in all sorts of directions, therefore I expect to see some sort of shock before I believe the bottom is in for stocks. Again, it is possible that things might have bottomed here, as we got a dip while the stock market was closed and some major lows have been swept, yet it is very hard to imagine that in 2022 we won't get a major crash, unless the Fed doesn't raise rates, resumes QE and there is no war. Finally, the Crypto market is in a similar state as stocks. The two have been heavily correlated since November and they probably will continue being correlated until we get a major crash. At that point I do see Crypto bottom first and the rally much harder than stocks, as it will benefit the most from an environment of sanctions, high inflation and more money printing. In my opinion, Bitcoin will probably be the one that performs the best over the next few weeks / months, as it is the one that has been going sideways the longest, while it is the safest and most liquid asset in crypto, with the strongest narrative in such an environment (digital gold). BTCUSD has been in a very clear downtrend and the rejection at 46k just confirmed that until we close above all the major moving averages, anything between 20k and 28k is possible. Going lower would be pretty hard and the most likely scenario over the next few weeks / months, is a bottom at 24-25k. Won't go into more detail here as I've done so twice before and I definitely recommend people to read my previous analyses on the crypto market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BitcoinMacro
Bitcoin Sells Off with Russia TensionsBitcoin has sold off with stocks as the markets react to the Ukraine/Russia conflict. We were skeptical of the bull rally anyway, as we have mentioned here many times. Bitcoin have solidly given up the $40K handle, and are well into the $30K's at this point. The level $38.2K appeared to provide good support, but another wave of selling took us back further to $36.7K. This appears to be a bottom for now, but there is a vacuum zone to $34.9K. If we catch some bull momentum, $40K is the level to break to see higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
4
XAU/USD tests key technical levels after temporarily rising Gold (XAU/USD) retreats to $1,906, after refreshing multi-day high during Tuesday’s Asian session. Even so, the bullion prices print 0.15% intraday gains while poking June 2021 top amid the gradual run-up since late January. The metal’s recent rally could be linked to the headlines concerning Russia’s probable invasion of Ukraine as Moscow orders troops inside Eastern Ukrainian states, citing their peacemaking efforts. Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s signing of a decree "on friendship and cooperation" with Donetsk and Luhansk triggered a risk-off mood. In a reaction to escalated fears of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations (UN), the UK, and the US called for emergency meetings while Britain and Canada announced readiness for fresh sanctions against Russia. Additionally, Yomiuri mentioned Japan’s warning to stop the chip exports to Moscow if it invades Ukraine whereas Australia PM Scott Morrison said that they will be in lockstep with allies on sanctions on Russia. Other than the geopolitics, downbeat US Treasury yields and receding favors for a 0.50% Fed-rate-hike in March also underpin the XAU/USD upside. That said, the return of the US and Canadian traders will join the preliminary US PMIs for February to propel gold prices whereas headlines concerning Russia-Ukraine will gain major attention. Tensions in the Ukraine/Russia region alongside Russia’s President Vladimir Putin recognizing two separatists in Eastern Ukraine regions increased appetite for the safe-haven status of the yellow metal. At the time of writing, Gold is trading at $1,910, and up in the week by some 0.60%. 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚’𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐃𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐬𝐤 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐮𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐤 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 On Monday during the North American session, the two separatist leaders sought recognition by Russia, which they got after a “long” speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who put in perspective the history of Ukraine and Russia. That said, Putin urged the Russian Parliament to support the decisions, signing a decree of cooperation and friendship with Donetsk and Luhansk leaders. Russian President Putin ordered a peacekeeping operation in eastern Ukraine’s two separatist regions while reiterating that the West will impose sanctions anyway, adding that Russia has the right to take retaliatory measures. The non-yielding metal buyers took advantage of the US holiday observant of President’s day and pushed XAU/USD from $1,896 to $1,914, as war drums in Ukraine do not appear to fade. The President of the European Commission said that the recognition of the two separatist territories in Ukraine is a “blatant violation of international law as well as of the Minsk agreements.” She emphasized that the EU will react with sanctions against those involved in this “illegal act.” Across the pond, US President Joe Biden spoke with Ukraine President Zelensky. Further, US President Biden signed an executive order banning new investment, trade, and financing to the DNR and LNR regions while saying that he would announce additional measures. In the same rhetoric, Poland’s Prime Minister said that Russia’s decision is an act of aggression against Ukraine and said that sanctions should be imposed immediately. Meanwhile, in the UK, Foreign Minister Truss said that the UK would be announcing sanctions on Russia tomorrow in response. XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook: Gold is upward biased from a technical perspective. The daily moving averages (DMAs) reside well below XAU/USD spot price, with a bullish slope. That, alongside the break of a nine-month-old downslope resistance trendline, exacerbated the uptrend, helping XAU bulls reclaim the $1900 figure. XAU/USD first resistance would be $1,916. Breach of the latter will expose January 2021 highs at $1,959, which once cleared could pave the way towards $2,000. - It's important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long-term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are masters of RISK. Please comment, like, and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by AliSamadiTR