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Tightening OIL Supply Could Push USDCAD To 1.25000!With the RUSSIAN-UKRAINE Crisis hitting the market hard, the safehaven currencies such as the USD, JPY & CHF have been gaining grounds against their counterparts. In such scenario GOLD has also been appreciating as well due to its obvious safehaven demand. Furthermore, OIL has been appreciating as well but not as a safehaven! OIL has been appreciating simply because of the tightening demand as the world gets ready to impose strict sanctions against Russia. Due to this the supply will likely be reduced thus driving the OIL price higher. SO WHAT HAS USDCAD TO DO WITH ALL THIS? Canada being a major OIL exporting player globally, its all simple. With the demand for OIL likely to rise soon, CANADA could soon start to increase their OIL exports to meet the demand. Due to this the CANADIAN DOLLAR would likely appreciate against most currencies! BASED ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF USDCAD So with fundamental factors in favor of CAD, the technical picture is still developing. Have a look at the main chart to have a better understanding. The rising trendline needs to break in either two likely scenario. Once this happens we can expect the price to start inching closer to the next psychological support at 1.25000 level! Trade with confirmation with the market gives you. do not rush into decisions. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) TA: 22.2.22The 36,500 range does not seem to have much power to reverse the price of bitcoin. Although there is a positive divergence in the chart, traders' fears have overcome this issue. The next support is in the range of 33,000 to 34,000. Beware of long positions because there is a lot of fear in the market. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Sadegh Ahmadi: @SDQ_Crypto 📅 22.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better
Short
by SDQ_Crypto
4
Russia terminates diplomatic discussions , Dollar Rises Today's forex news: Russia terminates diplomatic discussions, boosting the dollar. EUR/USD⬇️ GBP/USD⬇️ AUD/USD⬆️ USD/CAD⬇️ XAU⬆️ WTI⬆️ Risk aversion dominated financial markets, owing to growing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. The greenback gained strength against high-yielding counterparts but lost ground against safe-haven counterparts. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. The international community views this action as the first step toward an invasion, effectively ending negotiations with Western nations. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel stated that the EU is prepared to react strongly if Russia acknowledges Donbas independence, which Putin did early. Markit released its preliminary estimates for the EU's February PMIs. The services sector saw a strong recovery, with the German index rising to 56.6 and the EU index reaching 55.8. Both economies' manufacturing PMIs came in lower than predicted but far above the 50-point threshold separating recession from economic expansion. EUR/USD is reaching 1.1300, while GBP/USD is battling to stay above 1.3600. Commodity-linked currencies have depreciated against the dollar. AUD/USD is around 0.7190, while USD/CAD is 1.2760. despite gold trading above $1,903 per troy ounce on the desire for safety and crude oil prices surging on disruption fears, with WTI presently trading at $92.75 per barrel. While US markets were closed in observance of President Day, stock futures fell sharply on Russia/Ukraine news. European and Asian futures are also lower, implying a risk-off day on Tuesday. #Mitrade #DollarIndex #YieldCurve #Inflation #Gold #USDJPY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #RUSSIA #PUTIN 📱 Monitor the markets in real time and seize trading opportunities on Mitrade
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
$GOLD 15min TA : 02.22.22 : +100 Pips ✅✅ Total Results so far : +100 Pips 😍🚀🔥 Previous Analysis : By analysing the gold chart in 15-min timeframe, we see that the price is consolidating above $ 1903 zone . With the market opening, If the price maintained at $ 1901 support , we can expect growth to $ 1906, $ 1908 and $ 1910 levels (respectively). Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 22.Feb.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
WTI Oil Coming Lower to 1980s After Russian De-escalation? Currently Oil is sitting at a resistant trendline on the higher timeframes with a strong bearish candle being printed so far, about 2% down today. We've formed a double top on the timeframes below and after a brief pullback we're ready to move lower. This change in sentiment comes from the news that Russia has begun to withdraw troops off of Ukraine's borders but still looking to show off it's military power in drills that will take place in the future. Western media were salivating for war with Russia, an enemy it has built up in recent years, but in leaked wikileaks cables from 2008, Russia predicted the destabilization of certain Ukraine regions once the West tried to push into Ukraine because pro-Russian communities would begin to fight back. This has since come into fruition since 2014 and so Russia are clearly not acting on a whim, but rather a strategic posturing I would call recent events. Putin has not been afraid to downplay the strength of the Russian military in comparison to that of certain Western countries so it doesn't come as an ego damage that he would remove some troops. We'll see how this plays out but the situation has been overly exaggerated and now we will see outflows from safe havens if the above still holds through in the days and weeks to come.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
2
Hydrocarbons Benefit From Rising Geopolitical RiskCrude oil came close to a triple-digit price last week for the first time since 2014. Natural gas prices have soared in Europe and Asia, and US prices rose to the highest level since 2008 when the February NYMEX futures contract spiked to over $7.30 per MMBtu in late January. The chicken and egg economic dilemma may be, which came first, inflation or rising energy prices? Energy prices continue to trend higher Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes US energy policy inhibits new production Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus that followed the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse. As prices began to rise, the shift in US energy policy to address climate change poured gasoline on the inflationary fire. In January, the consumer price index rose to 7.5%, and core CPI, excluding food and energy, was 6.0% higher, the highest level in over four decades. While the core number omits energy prices, energy is an input cost for goods and services measured in core CPI. The producer price index rose by 9.7% in January. The bottom line is that if rising energy prices did not ignite inflation, it is fanning the flames. Meanwhile, based on a 7.5% inflation rate, the US Fed would need to increase the short-term Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points thirty times for real rates to be at zero percent. While the Fed may choose to increase the short-term rate by 50 basis points at the March FOMC meeting, the rise would be nowhere near the level that would push real interest rates out of negative territory. While inflation pushes all prices higher, energy markets face two other issues that could prove explosive. OPEC and Russia now control crude oil pricing, and Russia’s expansionary actions threaten to make petroleum a political and economic tool. Energy prices continue to trend higher Last week, crude oil prices rose to new multi-year highs. The monthly chart shows nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $95.82 per barrel before pulling back to the $91.50 level at the end of last week. Crude oil continues to trend higher towards a triple-digit price. The current technical target stands at the June 2014 $107.73 per barrel high. Nearby Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange, the pricing benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s petroleum production and consumption, reached $96.78 per barrel last week. Brent’s technical target stands at the June 2014 $115.71 high. In February 2021, NYMEX and Brent crude futures traded to respective highs of $63.81 and $67.70 per barrel. At the $4.45 per MMBtu level on February 18, nearby NYMEX natural gas futures were well above the February 2021 $3.316 peak. Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam at $162.35 was over double the February 2021 $68.65 per ton high. The bottom line is fossil fuel prices have exploded, and the trends remain higher in early 2022. Russian incursions into Ukraine could cause price spikes The conflict between Russia and the US and its NATO partners is that the Russians consider Ukraine Western Russia, while the US and Europe believe the country is part of a free Eastern Europe. Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the US administration warns that an attack and incursion is “imminent.” While negotiations and discussions continued at the end of last week, President Putin is not backing down. The US and Europe have threatened severe sanctions, but Russia and China recently agreed on mutual support, making sanctions toothless. Since 2016, Russia has become an influential nonmember of the international oil cartel. OPEC is not OPEC+ with the plus being the cooperation with Moscow. President Putin’s clever inroads into the cartel increased Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East together with alliances with the Syrian and Iranian governments. OPEC does not make a move without Russian agreement these days, and a conflict that leads to sanctions could cause oil embargos aside from the logistical challenges created by war. Fighting in Ukraine could cause crude oil’s price to spike higher. Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher and an elevator lower. However, the current geopolitical environment increases the odds of a sudden rally. The oil market has not experienced an event-driven price explosion since the evening in August 1990 when Saddam Hussein marched into Kuwait and nearby futures doubled in a matter of hours. US energy policy inhibits new production In early 2021, US energy policy experienced an overnight transformation. On his first day in office, President Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline that transported petroleum from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to Steele City, Nebraska, and beyond to the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma. In May 2021, the administration banned oil and gas drilling and fracking on federal lands in Alaska. Increasing regulations that address climate change favors alternative and renewable energy sources and inhibits fossil fuel production and consumption. Aside from handing pricing power back to OPEC+, the administration’s policy shift created entry barriers for new companies in the traditional energy markets. Addressing climate change is a multi-decade initiative as the US and world continue to depend on fossil fuels for power. However, the administration appears to have put the policy horse before the cart as hydrocarbon output is not keeping pace with demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration, daily production at 11.6 million barrels per day is 11.5% below the March 2020 high. Moreover, oil and oil product stockpiles remain below the five-year average. Crude oil inventories were down 11%, gasoline was 3% lower, and distillate stocks were 19% below the average level over the past five years. While the US policies weigh on output, the demand is booming. Rising energy prices are a root cause of inflationary pressures After decades of striving for energy independence from the Middle East, the US energy policy handed the pricing power back to the cartel in 2021. As oil prices rose, the administration asked OPEC+ to increase output twice in 2021, but the cartel refused. In November 2021, the President released fifty million barrels from the US strategic petroleum reserve. The release amounted to three days of consumption, and the oil price continued to rally after reaching a higher low in early December. While the pandemic-inspired monetary and fiscal policies and supply chain bottlenecks created inflationary pressures, the US energy policy has exacerbated the economic condition leading to an increasing cost of all goods and services. OPEC+ suffered as US shale production increased over the past years. In 2022, it is payback time for the cartel as they would rather sell one barrel at $100 than two at $50. Meanwhile, in his standoff with the US and Europe, crude oil availability and prices are a negotiating tool and potential economic weapon for the Russian President. Expect lots of volatility- Watch crude oil at the end of March The higher the crude oil price rises, the greater the odds of a correction. The last downdraft in the crude oil futures market began in late October when the nearby NYMEX futures contract fell from $85.41 to $62.43 or 26.9% in six weeks. The $62.43 level was a marginally higher low than the August 2021 $61.74 bottom, keeping the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. At the end of 2021, crude oil posted its seventh consecutive quarterly gain. A quarterly chart illustrates a close above the December 31, 2021, $75.45 per barrel on the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract will mark the eighth consecutive quarterly gain. As of the end of last week, the price was substantially above that level. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the trajectory of crude oil over the past weeks has increased the odds of a correction and elevator ride lower. However, the geopolitical landscape, US energy policy, OPEC+’s desire for payback, and rising inflation continue to create an almost perfect bullish storm for the energy commodity that powers the world. While many market participants are watching the $100 level, the potential for a challenge of the 2008 all-time high at over $147 per barrel in WTI and Brent futures could be on the horizon in the current environment. Crude oil’s rise may result from monetary and fiscal policies and a political agenda to address climate change, but it has become a driving inflationary force. A more effective tool to stomp on inflation may be increasing US fossil fuel output to push prices lower instead of relying on monetary policy via interest rate hikes. --- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
2
Bitcoin shorts and a KEY lesson for day traders!Hey again traders! Happy Monday and welcome to the new trading week! Yesterday we released a post about Bitcoin explaining what we believe is happening and how we will be trading! Today we release yet another post this time detailing our strategy for the rest of the day when it comes to Bitcoin but also provide you with a key lesson on how you should approach day trading. We hope this video helps you in one way or another and if it does, then our job has been a success here! Happy Trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by PrimedGroup