Russia
Gold Hits Our Target!!Gold has hit our next target of 1905, after smashing through 1895. We saw resistance from 1905, as anticipated, and subsequently retraced slightly. We are currently seeing support just under our previous target of 1895. If we retrace further, we should see support at 1876, then 1865. After such a strong rally in gold, it is reasonable to anticipated a technical retracement. The Kovach OBV is still quite strong, but has started to level off a bit, suggesting we may anticipate a retracement or at least a sideways correction as gold feels out the current value area.
Oil Weekly OverviewHello Traders,
For the commodities, I generally look at price action starting from high time intervals to low.
To follow energy commodities, WTI always comes first for me.
My analysis about commodities is not only technical but also fundamental.
After the lockdowns Oil demand indeed accelerated and that directly affected Oil price.
In the mean time US used its national reserves to set the price in a level but that wasn't really successful.
Palliative actions does not create stable solutions.
Hard winter for Northern Hemisphere increased the demand of energy commodities.
And other aspect that effects Oil price is politics.
Russia is a major player in the field and as a playmaker role, Russia can directly effect prices.
Europe needs Russian natural gas so bad and Russia is decisive about its pipeline because they don't want to pay commission to Ukraine while sending gas to Europe by North Stream.
That's why they built North Stream 2 which sends Russian gas directly to Europe.
BUT
US does not want Russia send gas through North Stream 2 without Ukraine to be paid. Meanwhile US supported Europe by sending tens of LNS vessels which also increased Henry Hub gas prices.
With all that conflicts,
US wants energy prices lower because of inflation,
Russia wants to send gas through NorthStream 2
Europe need cheap gas
bla bla..
The most important aspect is that, USD is not valuable enough for the world right now comparing to the commodities, metals, energy, housings, for each item that people need to have.
and that means inflation...
Thanks and have a nice weekend.
GOLD SHORT TO 1840This is a follow on from the last analysis I posted which you can see below or by going on my TradingView profile. The last analysis was on the 4 hour TF showing where I'm expecting market to correct itself. Whereas, this analysis is the 1 hour TF showing that sub (micro) waves that are going on within the 4 hour candles. We can see that Gold has just finished its 5 wave move inside Wave 5, along with showing that buyers are now losing momentum as market is overbought. This is another confluence to go short now.
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EURUSD 4H TA : 02.17.22 (Update)Two possible scenarios are marked on the chart . As you can see the price reached an important resistance range and we have to wait for break or rejection from this range and after that we can look for a trigger ...
Last Analysis :
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 17.Feb.22
⚠️(DYOR)
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BTC Update BTC is trading in a range, we are seeing some volatility in the market due to Fed meetings and the Russia/Ukraine drama. However Ukraine announced legalization of Bitcoin there, news is just coming out now for that. BTC.D is also dropping which indicates alts are holding their price better, as BTC is dropping more then alts. Will be good to pick alts for a swing here but stop loss must be used for if BTC drops below $41,500. As far as now, no need to worry unless BTC drops bellow $41,500, and no need to get excited unless BTC breaks $45,800.
Trade the range, trade safely.
Stocks Range, Anticipating Russia/Ukraine DevelopmentsStocks are ranging after inching past resistance at 4462. The S&P 500 was able to break this level of strong resistance but just barely, encountering resistance at the next level at 4487. We met resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and then retraced back to support at 4431. The Kovach OBV has leveled off completely suggesting it could go either way from here. The markets are clearly not convinced that the Russia/Ukraine saga is nearing a close. If we retrace further, we will reestablish the value area between 4272 and 4440. If we see a burst of momentum, then we must clear 4462 again, then the next target is 4521. After this we must solidly break 4580 before considering higher levels.
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1820Last night I posted my long analysis and said I expect market to correct itself towards 1862 which has now been completed at 130 PIPS profit. I am now expecting a melt towards 1830 which would be considered as Wave 3. We have FOMC minutes tonight, so markets will be moving sideways until then. Expecting some volatility tonight so best to be careful and use risk management.
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USOIL, The path to 100Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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Oil prices recovered losses after falling more than 3% the previous session, as investors assessed the impact of reducing Russia-Ukraine tensions against a tight global supply-demand balance.
The market seems to be moving in a positive way after seeing the Oil prices rise mainly because of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and today it's trading at 92.90 per barrel with a Bullish candle showing on the charts.
We might see a drop back to the main support area located near the 84$ zone where a big battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls over control with the outcome being most likely to the Bulls.
Technical indicators show :
1) The market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish Sign)
2) The MACD is above the zero line indicating a Bullish market with a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line.
3) the RSI is at 66.48 showing Great strength in the market with no Divergences found between the market and the indicator.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 90.27 1) 96.47
2) 86.38 2) 98.78
3) 84.07 3) 102.67
Fundamental point of view :
Moscow's statement on Tuesday of a partial army withdrawal from Ukraine's borders was treated with skepticism, with US President Joe Biden warning that more than 150,000 Russian troops were stationed near the frontiers.
Aside from the Ukraine crisis, the oil market remains tight, and prices are still on track to reach $100 per barrel.
While the Ukraine situation raged on, the US Labor Department revealed that producer prices rose by the highest in eight months in January, a reminder that high inflation may remain for the rest of the year.
Investors are looking forward to the Energy Information Administration's weekly report on US oil inventories, which is due on Wednesday.
Last week, crude and distillate inventories in the United States may have fallen by 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels.
According to market sources on Tuesday, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed a decline in crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks last week.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
XAUUSD LONG TO 1860Pretty self explanatory as everything is labelled on the charts. I am expecting a corrective wave back up towards 1860-1870 as Wave 2 before we see the next wave of sell offs.
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Russian de-escalation sharply moving marketsSeveral equities have reacted sharply to the suggestion that Russia is de-escalating its presence on the Russia/Ukraine border.
As reported by Reuters, Russia has begun to move an undisclosed number of its troops away from the Ukrainian border after completing mock defence exercises. Even so, tensions have not entirely dissipated. NATO, US, and UK officials remain cautious of the situation, with Boris Johnson noting that "the intelligence that we're seeing today is still not encouraging".
The markets have been more eager to embrace talk of de-escalation.
European Equities spent Tuesday rebounding sharply. The STOXX Europe 600, which is comprised of 600 stocks across 17 European exchanges, broke a three-day losing streak and rose 1.43%.
On an individual bourse level, the Italian stock market Index, the IT40, led the way back into positive territory, up 2.17% over the trading day. The German (DAX30) and French (CAC40) indices followed closely, each climbing ~1.9%, and the UK's FTSE100 climbed up 0.98%.
US stocks reacted in a similar manner when they opened a few hours after Europe. The US market has recently closed where the NASDAQ rose 2.24%, the S&P500 rose 1.36%, and the Dow Jones rose 1.06%.
Commodities also make significant moves on news that Russia is de-escalating.
Naturally, commodities would be significantly affected by a war between Russia and Ukraine and NATO affiliated nations that have reacted the sharpest.
WTI and Brent have pulled back a shocking 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively. On Monday, Brent oil prices were pushing their way up to USD 100 per barrel after crossing USD 95 per barrel. Before the turnaround in the oil price, talk of USD 110 per barrel was beginning to filter into market predictions.
Russia and Ukraine are two of the largest exporters of Wheat. As such, supply concerns for the soft commodity have eased slightly, and with it, the price has pulled back from its two week high. Wheat is now trading down 2.63% to USD 7.8 per bushel. Low supplies could temper more downside for Wheat in Canada and the US.
Other major exports of the region are trading down on the easing tensions. Corn, Iron Ore, and Soybean are all trading down 2.86%, 1.37%, and 1.27%, respectively.
$BTC overextended 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Sell Entry: $44400
Take Profit: $35000
Stop Loss: $47000
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BITCOIN Daily TA : 02.15.22 $BTCAccording to the previous analysis, we see that the price is now following scenario number 1 and has reached the very important resistance level (X-Point) in the range of $ 44,400, if it succeeds in breaking this resistance, the next bullish target is $ 45,500. In order to break this important resistance, the daily candle close above 46K will be the first condition to continue the uptrend.
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 15.Feb.22
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Bitcoin Daily Chart - Wyckoff Distribution and Downtrend BreakAs the majority of traders have began showcasing various bearish signals, it is important that at this moment we zoom out of the chart and we observe the longterm pattern that has been created.
On the daily chart we can observe a potential Wyckoff Distribution being completed which should continue with a downtrend.
As of today, bulls are attempting to break off from the downtrend and enter two possible scenarios:
- a shoot to ~47,000 breaching the strong resistance at ~45,000 which has already been tested several times.
- sideways trading to consolidate the downtrend break, and build new support before finally attempting to pump in the ~50,000 price range.
We are still considered to be in no mans land until a confirmation appears.
The most likely scenario is sideways training and here is why:
1. FED actions to taken in consideration
2. Russia - Ukraine situation. Ukraine deciding not to follow their NATO membership ambitions is a positive step towards temporarily resolving the tense circumstances at the border.
3. The crypto ecosystem is technologically booming. A 12-24 months bearish crypto market does not represent the logical uptrend of the overall crypto world, unless external factors are significantly negative.
Bullish on PalladiumWhy am I long on Palladium?
- The majority of palladium supply comes from Russia and Ukraine, and with current economic conditions, a supply shortage (aka price increase) is likely.
-Inflation is out of control in. When almost every other country's currency bleeds against the US dollar, this is not a good sign. Precious metals to the moon!
- A bounce off the long term upward trend line is pretty bullish and shows that although the current price seems high, there could be a lot more upside ahead.