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Still lower oil price ahead?We finally got a joint statement on Sunday afternoon. OPEC+ is willing to cut the global oil production in amount of 9.7 million barrels per day. That’s very much but it has to be more. The investment bank Goldman Sachs just recently said that they believe a cut as high as 15 million barrels per day will be necessary to push the oil price higher again and away from it's lows. For the moment it looks like the statement can stabilize price but I don’t think that this will be sustainable. Bad market environment caused by the corona virus and not enough cutting further on could lead to a lower oil price again. I even think it’s possible that we will test the last lows of the market and go deeper. What we can see at the moment are oil prices where it makes no sense for the manufacturers to produce it, cause the cost of it is higher than the price when they sell it. So very bad situation. On the other side they have to sell it to generate an income stream. I guess thats also the reason why so many countries struggle to cut production at the moment, its a classic dilemma.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by macrolukas
WTI Crude - An End to the Price War?Market has high expectations for OPEC+++ The stand-out event today is undoubtedly the OPEC+++ meeting, where producers will attempt to find agreement on output that addresses the collapse in demand and crude prices. No one is winning in this environment but, as ever, each are losing to different degrees and have a different ideas on how it should be resolved. I don’t think a grand deal is as nailed on as markets would have us believe but, as ever, common sense should prevail. If a substantial deal is going to get over the line, the US must play a part in some form. It is currently hoping that a market-driven, forced production cut will be enough to convince other producers to cut but I’m not sure that will be enough. Other assurances will be necessary to get Russia on board, which is the biggest risk to a deal. That said, traders have heavily bought into this potential deal, following President Trump's tweet last week. The risk now is not just whether a deal is done but, if it is, will it be enough? I'm not sure a 10 million barrel cut will be enough to hold the gains and even 15 million may just about given the demand destruction we've seen. Should we see above 15 million barrels, it could give the oil price a big boost, with the break of $30 in WTI potentially being the catalyst for another big move higher. The next notable level above here is $35 and if producers want to see higher than this, the cut may have to be closer to 20 million and include the US in some form. Oil has jumped today on reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a deal on cuts of up to 20 million. The headline sounds good but the small print may not read quite as well. Should this be confirmed without any drawbacks in the fine print, I'd expect oil prices to rise more than they have. There's always the risk of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" strategies going into these things which is why the detail and believability is so important. From a technical standpoint, this looks like a market that's bottomed and just waiting to pounce above $30, but for that we need confirmation. A break above $30 says traders are satisfied with the cuts, at which point we may be able to look upwards for the first time in a while.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by OANDA
Russian RTS index: Worth to watch itLarge triangle could emerge to shape a huge consolidation. Last wave E down is in progress. The trick is that it could be over already as last wave within a triangle could be short. On the other hand it could retest the downside support to complete the pattern in the 650-700 area. This option coincide with my idea that oil and ruble will drop one more time. After that another strong passing move (impulse) could start there to reach 3000. Russia ain't gonna die, it will be worth to buy.
RUS:RTSILong
by aibek
Russia & Saudi deal on Monday = green light for marketsSCO is at a critical point right now. It seems that the large H&S has played out and quickly retreated after Trump tweeted about a potential deal between Saudi and Russia to cut oil production by 15 million barrels. No one knows exactly what the outcome of the OPEC talk occurring next Monday is going to be. If the plan falls through and political tensions escalate, then SCO will bounce hard. The demand for crude is very low and the supply keeps increasing! If the deal fails, and the important support level of $17.50 to $19.00 breaks, then expect major downside. It could go either direction Monday. Bitcoin and traditional markets are also at critical points based on technicals. My gut is telling me Russia might endure so US and Saudi experience more pain. Of course don't trade off my gut, I could be completely wrong! GLTA.
AMEX:SCOLong
by OptiPulse
3
Oil Bullishness Likely to persist or Hangover about to end..We have seen that a massive upsurge in the oil prices in last trading session where oil has gained more than $5/bbl to touch highest level of $27.39/bbl, however this momentum was not sustainable and plummet from highest level to currently trading at $24.06/bbl 11:02AM (Pakistani Time). Therefore, this came to in a choppy session which force it to oscillate in range of $19 - $25 /bbl. This massive jump in the oil resulted amid news coming from USA regarding table talks between Saudia and Russia to build consensus about cut down the production by approx 10mn barrel a day to stabilize the oil prices, on the contrary, Russia officials didn't confirm this meeting yet which put pressure on Oil prices and force down to $24/bbl since the highest level. STANCE would be "Stay Cautious" in long trades, oil will come down below $20/bbl mark and hit $15/bbl in our view. We are still intact with our initial stance on oil. #Stockiest91
TVC:USOILShort
by Stockiest_Research
The Zimbabwe Industrial Index made record highs in 2007-2008.An era is ending... The USA crime syndicate the FED said they would print infinite money to solve every problem. "During the height of inflation from 2008 to 2009, it was difficult to measure Zimbabwe's hyperinflation because the government of Zimbabwe stopped filing official inflation statistics. However, Zimbabwe's peak month of inflation is estimated at 79.6 billion percent month-on-month, 89.7 sextillion percent year-on-year in mid-November 2008." Taken from wikipedia You can find the zimbabwean index chart easilly, it went up millions of percents I lost count. Ah btw, since 2016 the indice went from 100 points to 1757 a 1757% increase. The population got so desperate they even bought Bitcoins (and lost their money but being down 50% is better than being down 99%). In 2015 the goverment of zmb used the usd as official currency and their stock market went up already, but in 2019 they switch back to their beloved ponzi scheme and it went parabolic again. The country of Zimbabwe is not known to dominate the world and be super wealthy. If running a country wide ponzi scheme worked they'd be rich, not one of the poorest countries. The USA like every fiat experiment in the past (except the UK pound I guess - 500 years old and still rocking!) have lost their mind, print print print, print infinite money no matter what it takes keep stonks up. Much of the USA wealth and dominance comes from them being a world reserve currency. They could print money out of thin air and use it to buy real goods from foreign country, in the 19th century their growth came from europe investors represented by the Rothschilds every one heard of, in the 20th century their growth and wealth came from mainly eu & japan investors, as well as China selling them goods against money they print out of thin air (and that does not devaluate at super speed because they are the world reserve currency and foreign investors have the usd in high demand). Until now. Look, Russia has been accumulating gold. Several central banks the main 2 ones being Russia and China the "obvious ones". It starts with the "obvious" ones, we are in the disbelief phase, next slightly hostile to neutral countries will "manage risk" by selling dollars and buying gold. Then neutral countries sell usd for gold, then allies that aren't the strongest allies. Then every one will be "euporic" and dump all of their USD for gold. And in general foreign investors are slowly but surely losing their "safe haven" view of the USA. Maybe one day the USA will be a promising emerging market... They think the world will support their socialist agendas and free stuff for their people, little do they know... The USD will get dropped and the world will at least move to chf & gbp, or maybe even what is called REAL MONEY, gold & silver. Physical metals are in low supply, people have already been buying. The suckers that are still looking to invest in the USA in my opinion will regret it. The USA today are not a success story, they are the story of a declining empire desperate to buy time. BTCUSD might go up. LOL. Who cares? Crypto investors might even shout hurray. Congratulations to them on getting more of something worth less. I do not recommend shorting the indice the regular way. What I would do to short it would be to short it against gold. Depending on your region idiotic regulations you might or might not be able to open a dji/spx-to-usd short and gold-to-usd long. I would certainly not invest in US companies. Regardless of them printing infinite money or not. I would much rather pick a country with a solid economy and probably bright future, like Singapore.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
4
BRN Following the current situation we have 2 basic scenarios about oil price: 1. Yellow: USA already started some jawboning about support for their oil industry and etc, and we should not forget that normally such cautious talks are about to "measure" the possible reaction. So we wait here some possible reaction, probably going up till 40 and then falling again to retest the bottom. 2. Green: in this case we don't consider to see any huge up movement, but the slower continuation of going down.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by EmilShakaryan
2
CRUDE OIL| Multi Year Support|Price BattleEvening Traders, Today’s technical analysis will focus on CRUDE OIL with its biggest gap down ever, breaking a key local resistance that is likely to be tested with an oversold bounce. Points to consider, - Local yearly support breached - Multi-year structural support in confluence with Fibonacci Extension - RSI in oversold territory - Stochastics in lower regions The coming weeks for Crude Oil will be crucial especially in the current economic turmoil. Local support has been breached promptly with a full body candle close setting one of the largest gap opens. Structural support is in confluence with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension, this level was respected by the bulls with a strong wick up. The Stochastics on the other hand is in the lower regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside. Overall in my opinion, CRUDE OIL needs to rebound and close above local resistance. If an S/R flip is confirmed at local resistance, then the likelihood of lower levels increase greatly. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Sheer will and determination is no substitute for something that actually works.” – Jason Klatt
O
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
Oil Opens Down -25%! More downside?So did look at this chart on the weekly. We had an initial downside move after multiple higher lows and higher highs, and we were expecting a lower high swing to be made. This did not happen for many months. The 61.8 fib held, and just on Friday, we confirmed our first lower high swing because remember, to confirm a swing, we need a new lower low (in a downtrend). Now come Sunday open, the move continued more than I expected and we cut through the first fib zone. Next fib target would be around 21... we should not see that anytime soon, but with this market volatility, anything is possible. So I have spoken before on why OPEC production cuts do not work. Say oil is at 50, and a production cut is agreed on to take oil to 60. If the demand for oil has not changed, an OPEC member has the incentive to cheat on the deal, and produce as many barrels as they were before and sell them at 60 for more profit. Once other members find out about this, they all start producing the same as before and then price goes back to where it was and you are back to where you first began before the production cut. What angered the Saudi's was the fact that if demand remained the same, their market share was taken away. It was taken away by Iran who supplied mostly to China and other Asian nations...the fact they accepted any other currency other than the US Dollar was helpful too...and will also increase their market share when we see the US Dollar move higher. Now, we know there are recession fears. Many nations know that oil will be heading lower. Yes, shale did bring a lot of supply to the market. The US became energy independent, and brought on a lot of supply adding to the supply glut. And yes, bringing oil prices down will impact shale production...but more importantly, it will hurt the banks, who were forced to loan to these oil/shale companies the last time oil fell in order to prevent massive layoffs. They will pay for it now. These are zombie companies, needing more debt just to stay afloat (maybe lower rates will help them out). So, going back to the idea that nations know oil prices will fall due to the looming recession. If you are Russia, or Iran and know this, you want to pump as much as you can now, to make as much money as you can. Media is using the shale production story, which sure might be true. However, I think Saudi Arabia doing the Aramco IPO was a telling sign of this eventually occurring.
TVC:USOIL
by Uncharted-FX
Carnage coming in oil and gas and banking sectors this weekOPEC+ failing to cut production Friday was bad, but things are about to get oh so much worse. The Saudis announced today that they are increasing production and entering an all-out price war with Russia. We may soon see US oil prices head toward $20 per barrel. There's broad speculation among analysts that Russia is deliberately trying to collapse oil and gas prices in order to trigger a mass default on the huge amount of leveraged debt in the US oil and gas sector. Corporate junk bonds are widely expected to be the subprime mortgages of the next recession. Trump may be able to stave that off this year through bailouts, but not if Russia triggers a crisis before the US government can do anything about it. (Fun fact: Russia has net zero public debt, because Putin lived through the 1990s and is well aware how debt can collapse a political and financial system. Possibly he has been waiting for this opportunity to weaponize US debt.) Also look for collapsing oil prices to cause deflationary pressure in the US dollar, a continued climb in long-term bond prices, and a continued collapse of US stocks (especially banks like JP Morgan with high exposure to leveraged lending).
DLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
6
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.03.02Fed rate cuts taking full control of the FX board as virus disruptions start to fade - it's time to go shopping in G10 and EM FX and the intervention policies will provide some USD relief. Here looking for a rebound into previous ranges in USDRUB as a pro-cyclical currency. A test of the previous range we were trading looks around the corner: The spread of the virus is naturally impacting global growth, and tipping OPEC towards intervention in Oil as well as a number of CBs. Markets now price Fed to cut 75bps by June - similar story in Australia with RBA, UK with BOE and BOC in Canada. Tracking closely for risk to find a temporary floor this week. As usual thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming .. jump into the conversation below with your views on RUB!
Short
by ridethepig