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Set-up is there for one more move up in AFKS Russian large Investment company AFK Systems has nice technical potential for at least one more bullish leg up towards 19-21 region. Price could have ended its correction started in Aug'23 and could be forming the bottom of the new cup. In order to confirm this scenario, we need price to first hold its Sep's low at 16.60 and move decisively above its 50D MA, breaking out above 17.80 low cheat pivot. Not positioned in this name as for now, but will be looking to start entering if price moves closer to 17.80, consolidates for a day or two and breaks out above highs of 9th Oct.
RUS:AFKSLong
by artemfedorov
1
MoscowExchange is prone to take a rest soonRecord new account openings on MoscowExchange during 2023, has played its role in almost 90% stock advance since the year start. The stock and volume dynamics show strong uptrend with good signs of accumulation on a weekly chart. My chart analysis shows, that price has reached an important resistance zone of its strongest uptrend wave 3 at around 182 area and is now to be expected to re-base again, correcting ideally to its mid-term area of support: 155-166 area. We may also notice that price looks extended from its 10w MA, that is a historical cautious sign for continuation of short and mid-term advance. We may also notice, that in Mar23 once price went above 50D MA by 18% that led to 2 months of correction. Despite my bearish leaning short-term, my analysis still has room for price to extend to higher resistance targets to 195-200 area as an alt. wave 3 target. Trading thesis : if price breaks bellow 21ema, preferably with volume pick-up, I would expect a move down to 166-155 area. If price decides to instead move above 185, I expect it to find resistance in 195-200.
RUS:MOEXShort
by artemfedorov
POSI - Russian leader in cybersecurity The actuality of cybersecurity for Russia in the absence of global brands becomes even sharper and provides unique opportunities for the best local provider to capture growing market share. Stock price technical perspective still illustrates strong up-trend, with some caution signals to be mindful about if one decides to trade it. On a weekly time-frame, price is solidly supported above the 10w MA, that is crucial for me to consider trading the upside of any stock. Although, I cautious about important fibonacci resistance levels at 2500 area. I price will not be able to follow-through its recent break-out attempt from 5 weeks flat base and move above 2500 zone, than I have hard times considering wave 4 finished, and will expect more deep and long correction (probably to 2070-1850 support zone). That being sad, in my trading, I try not to forecast, but to follow the price and volume dynamics. And when the set-up is favourable and I have positive traction in my personal portfolio, I will take it without any hesitation. Thesis : Above 2415 line and I expect price to follow-through and move towards 2600-2800 resistance zone. Below this line and I am out, and wait either for more tight entry set-up or stepping on the sidelines at all.
RUS:POSILong
by artemfedorov
$BRN1! -Are you Ready for Winter's Storms ahead ?!- The most recent conflict on the Middle East between Israel and Palestine(Hamas) has caused TVC:GOLD and Brent Crude Oil (futures) ICEEUR:BRN1! price to jump 4% . This increase risk on Geo-Political spectrum is messing up with our Short in ICEEUR:BRN1! . Short Call idea was shared on bingX copy-trade community where 2.000 people saw the Short trade opportunity. Congratulations to those who took action. (Calm before Winter's Storm Idea; Russia & Saudi Arabia two of the largest World's Oil Producers steady keeping production cuts) We have already partially taken profits off our trade before conflicts occurrence, leaving the position opened by aiming at full TP profits at Golden Zone (which may not be reached now due to the conflict) *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by Mr_J__fx
HHRU - Leading job-search company hints that... ... Russian labor market is far from being week. Due to massive wave's extensions beyond classic fibonacci levels, I am not placing big confidence on my EW count, but solely from market price and volume dynamics there is an argument to be made for price starting new advance to at least prior Sep's highs. Although, I am not a fan of big late-August weekly reversal candle, creating overhead supplies (potential downside pressure from those buyers who bough the Aug's highs and still holding loses), I do like how price finds support on ascending 10w MA line, that coincides with an ideal area for wave "iv" correction's support zone. So from the mid-term bullish price trend nothing is wrong or to be consider abnormal. Zooming in to the Daily landscape, we may observe, how the selling pressure subsides and price tries to form the right side of the potential "cup". Volume profile looks like how we want it to be with higher selling volume on the left side of the "cup" and higher buying volume on the right side of it. That potentially illustrate that sellers and their shares are being absorb by the buyers, that are starting to dominate moving the price up. General thesis : until price holds above 50D MA and in particular above 3050 area, at least one more wave to 4300 or even to 4900-5150 resistance zone could be considered. Short/Mid-Term thesis is wrong bellow 4300 zone. I did started building position in early October, I will consider holding if the price will not move below -3 and -5% from my average cost. I don't have any issues with stepping aside being stoped out and re-entering at the higher prices, if the price so wishes. All I need is tight risk-management parameters and price cooperating with my thesis in timely manner.
HLong
by artemfedorov
Lagger that refuses to fall and dreams about greatnessThe world's largest producer of nickel and palladium has had rather lackluster performance in 2023 advancing half as the general Russian Index. And still I cannot get over his accurate price structure that hints that better days are potentially ahead. I want the price to start forming the right side and later the handle of a cup, and break out above important Sep'22 and Sep'23 high - 17240 area. If price will not be able to hold Sep'23 15730 low, I would want the area above 15250 and 200D line to act as support. Bellow this levels the analysis is to be considered wrong and invalid. Trading thesis : cow-boy type longs (higher failure risk) may be considered above 16430 area with 3 and 5% stop levels.
RUS:GMKNLong
by artemfedorov
MAGN - Setting up for advance in Q4 MAGN had a nice run since Oct22 advancing +157% since the bottom to recent Sep's top. Is the rally over, or do we have at least one more advance potential? My technical thesis supports the latter. I don't have high confidence in my ElliotWave count on this chart, due to price extensions beyond classical fibonacci levels, but from pure price and volume dynamics, one may suggest that price is in a base building process for at least one more advance to 59-61 area and even above it. Having a closer look on a Weekly chart, we may notice big green accumulation bars and good weekly bar closes during price advance and relatively low selling volume when price corrects. Notice how price gets supported every time it moves bellow this line - all that are signs of buyers proliferation and accumulation happening. For the confirmation of my thesis, I need price to stay above previous low (49) and decisively move above 53.5 pivot with volume support. That would put me into the game with tight stop-parameters. If the price will dive bellow 49 area, than my short/mid-term bullish thesis is wrong and price needs more time to digest its advance (if not something major bearish is in the cards for Russian equities). P.S. orange straight lines are my previous buy (bellow the bars) and sells points (above). Double bar above means complete exit from the position.
RUS:MAGNLong
by artemfedorov
RASP - It seems market is counting on dividends...... to be payed. Although the decision is not yet certain due to redomiciliation of head-company Evraz not yet launched by the management, my ElliotWave projection and price and volume analysis, shows that at least one more move higher to Aug's high and even beyond to 430-460 area could be considered by local short-term swing traders and or even position investors if personal risk-management parameters can tolerate higher single digit volatility. Thesis : if price holds above 319-307 support zone, and more preferable above 50D MA (red-line on the chart), any potential break-out above 360 pivot may be actionable for longs with tight 3-5% stoploss rules.
RUS:RASPLong
by artemfedorov
YNDX - Ideal support zone to start the launch YNDX has landed perfectly into the lowest border of my ideal support zone of my wave (iv) projection. Until 2320 holds, I will expect the price to: 1. Move above the short-term 8/21 EMA and long 50D MA and 10W MA; 2. Form the right side of the cup with buying volume predominating above any selling volume; 3. Any low-cheat/cheat or handle area break-out pivot to emerge, providing the low-risk entry point. What also provides me with confidence to expect the re-launching of the upward moving trend (although price is bellow the 10w MA) is the absence of any meaningful selling volume. The correction so far is below 20% and looks orderly. The analysis and the investment thesis is fully wrong bellow 2320 area.
RUS:YDEXLong
by artemfedorov
IMOEX Marco technical - One more massive correction or...? My macro work on Russian MOEX Index illustrates how ElliotWave in conjunction with major fibonacci retracements can be useful in providing the context or the operational frame work for every investor and trader to operate and execute one's strategy. Starting from the market Oct'98, we may observe how the price structure has accurately finished its cyclical five wave move lasting almost exactly 23 years to Nov'21 finishing its run just 2.5% bellow an proper (though extended) target for the cyclical wave "V". The EW theory, first elaborated by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1930s, and later perfected to the most practical investing/trading principals by Avi Gilburt from elliottwavetrader.net, states that most of corrective structures develop in three waves: A-B-C. After finishing what I consider to be first cyclical macro five wave advance in Nov21, the price moved into deep and abrupt correction, straight to the ideal golden ratio (0.618) support zone where it is most typical for any correction (macro and micro) to establish a bottom. That was not particular to average character of the three wave corrective structures (being so abrupt), but the support parameters were met. Never the less in my global technical thesis, I still lean towards the macro correction from the Nov'21 highs NOT being complete and the price is yet to start its third wave decline to 1650 (double bottom) or even 930 zone. I am 55/45 on that regard. That being sad, I cannot completely rule out the possibility of price to have established long-term macro bottom on Feb22 and that we may be already in the very early process of the new (generational?) bull-cycle. As strange as it may sound in today's global political landscape, new macro generational potential for IMOEX, could be very much considered in the realms of several important circumstances happing in Russia: 1. Currency devaluation (bullish for equities); 2. Inflation (typically bullish for equities); 3. Internal barriers to withdraw capital (indirectly bullish); 4. Redomiciliation of large corporations and their capital; 5. Record interest of citizen to local stock market, resulting in record breaking numbers of new accounts opening on Moscow Stock Exchange. 6. Perspective budget deficit that will result in point #1 (bullish for stock) Macro parameter to differentaite between Macro-Bearish and Macro-Bullish scenarios is simple: until price is bellow 3700 area, macro-bearish case cannot be rule-out. The Mid/Short-Term Analysis Until price decisively breaks 2800, I cannot consider the mid-term bullish advance in either cycle wave "B" (macro bearish case), or wave (3) (in generational-bullish case) toped and expect at least one more wave up to 3370-3650 area in Q4 or Q1'24. It is yet early to consider that price has finished its Sep's correction at 3000 area and until price is bellow 3220 resistance zone, I expect one more decline to 2800. If price moves above 3200, than I will shift to yellow/green alt. scenario that wave 4 correction has finished and the price is on its wave to new 2023 highs.
RUS:IRUSLong
by artemfedorov
CHMF - One more Russian metalurgic play for Q4-Q1'24 From a both, technical and fundamental perspectives, It looks like Russian metalurgic and extraction complex sets-up for the next wave higher in this Q4, or maybe early next year. Maybe it is because of rubble current and future potential weakness, or because of the dividend that these companies (CHMF, MAGN, NLMK etc) pay or are planning to, we may observe rather neat base structures being in formation within supportive further advance ElliotWave structure. My general thesis for Severstal is that the price has bottomed in running flat type corrective structure (running flat are rare in EW and are signs of a bullishness) and now is basing for break-out to new this year highs closer to 1530-1580 zone where I may see next resistance zone. Please have look how price weekly advance is made on burst up in volume profile and how scares volume is, when price stops and digests its move. Holding above 10w line is crucial for me entertaining longs in any position and we may see how buyers actively support this moving average, not letting the price close bellow this line. My personal plan, is to start building position above 1400 zone, if price breaks out with volume, having tight risk-management parameters within 3-5% breathing room. I am perfectly fine staying out on the side line if the price will not cooperate or stops me out and waiting for the next low and time-right risk entry spot.
RUS:CHMFLong
by artemfedorov
Raytheon will succeed in WW3Raytheon Technologies Corporation is in a wonderful position, and will likely benefit heavily in the coming years. They are a company with strong fundamentals, plenty of employees, and constant demand from the US military. Missile defense systems will be sought after for decades to come. Russian missiles have reportedly struck Poland today during a massive strike on Ukraine's infrastructure. US aid to Ukraine has reached over $5 billion, and does not seem to be stopping anytime soon. The attack will seemingly increase tensions between Russia and NATO, possibly leading to more sanctions or war. Raytheon has plenty of room to decrease in the short term, but I personally think it is a great long-term play. The small dividend allows for more growth, and the profits are rising. I could surely see it hitting $100 in 2023. This is in no way financial advice, I am not responsible for any losses taken. Invest at your own risk, this is an extremely volatile market.
NYSE:RTX
by ryanhm7
1
Forex & Stocks: Capitalize on BRICS2023Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰 The 15th BRICS summit is being held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023 and will undoubtedly affect the Forex market. The main reason for this, is the commonly know agenda of BRICS to implement a new reserve currency instead of the USD. More details on that topic here: The 5 Forex markets we'll consider are: FX_IDC:USDINR FX:USDCNH FX_IDC:USDRUB FX_IDC:USDBRL FX:USDZAR As we can clearly see from the charts, from a Cycle / Phase analysis, it is dire time for the USD to correct as we see top outs in basically all of the charts Don't be surprised if it goes UP first, then down (sell the news but in reverse for the BRICS currencies). The summit is being hosted by South Africa, which is the current chair of BRICS. The other members of BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The summit is expected to focus on the war in Ukraine, the global economy, and the expansion of BRICS. The theme of the summit is "BRICS and Africa: Intra-BRICS cooperation for sustainable development in Africa". Russia's President Vladimir Putin is not attending the summit in person due to the international arrest warrant issued against him for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. He is being represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The summit is expected to boost investor confidence in the BRICS economies. This is because the summit will provide an opportunity for the BRICS leaders to discuss ways to strengthen their economic cooperation and coordination. This could lead to increased investment in the BRICS economies, which would boost their growth prospects. Top Stocks to consider are: 1. Petrobras (PBR) is the largest oil and gas company in Brazil. NYSE:PBR 2. Sberbank (SBER) is the largest bank in Russia. MOEX:SBER 3. State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest bank in India. BSE:SBIN 4. China Mobile (CHL) is the largest mobile phone company in China. MIL:CHL 5. Tencent (TCEHY) is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate. OTC:TCEHY 6. Alibaba (BABA) is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate. NYSE:BABA 7. Vale (VALE) is a Brazilian multinational mining company. NYSE:VALE 8. PetroChina (PTR) is the largest oil and gas company in China. SSE:601857 9. ONGC (ONGC) is the largest oil and gas company in India. NSE:ONGC 10. Infosys (INFY) is an Indian multinational information technology company. NSE:INFY The summit is also expected to lead to a weaker US dollar. This means that the other currencies against the dollar as listed on the 4 charts will strengthen. This is because the BRICS countries are collectively a major source of demand for commodities, such as oil and gold. If the summit leads to increased investment in the BRICS economies, it could lead to higher demand for commodities, which would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the value of currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. This would make the US dollar less attractive to investors, which could lead to a weaker dollar. A great way to capitalize on the outcome of BRCIS 2023, is to anticipate and keep an eye out on markets that will potentially be positively affected by this summit. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
44
A high geopolitical risk causes Russian ruble to dropNo new known macroeconomic factors could cause the current ruble devaluation. They say sanctions, some say a drop in imports ECONOMICS:RUIMP , others drop in exports ECONOMICS:RUEXP , brain drain, discounts on Russian oil, etc. Some blame the Prigozhin mutiny, but it doesn't change economic or political perspectives of Russia. In my opinion, all these factors are in the price. The events, except the contained mutiny, haven't appeared suddenly. The situation has been evolving since previous February. All mentioned factors were discussed and evaluated a hundred times by pundits, exporters, importers, traders, and others. I agree that Russian international trade is in bad shape, but not in the worst. Russian current account ECONOMICS:RUCA is still positive. It continues its drop from the historical highs reached last year to the depressed level of 2015. It is not a catastrophe compared with peers, having a worse current account and weaker national currencies, though are not sanctioned. You are reading a thankless type of forecast . I can't prove it with macro, but the determined bullish trend hints foreign currency buyers are aggressive because something forces them to sell rubles. I believe the current drop in the Russian ruble is caused by an anticipated huge geopolitical event that may have far-reaching consequences for Russia, like 24 February 2022. Before that date the ruble was oversold. Russia had a strong macro (robust current account on the back of high petroleum and metal prices.) During those three months, only newspapers disturbed with publications Russian would attack. It could partly exert pressure on ruble, but because the attack wasn't started, it became the boy who cried wolf. I can't prove it, but I suppose, that only a few people close to Putin could know what would happen and sell rubles and open short positions causing ruble fatigue before the war. Last week's ruble devaluation reminiscent me of the oversold ruble in February 2022. I hypothesize that people close to the Russian head are fearing some event in the nearest future. Those people, let's call them oligarchs, could sell rubles now or open shorts to hedge if the event happens. From the macroeconomic view, it is pure capital flight. The fear may be related to a Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant disaster and the West prospective actions. If something extraordinary happens, I won't be surprised if USD spikes to the previous high of 150 in several weeks (to the star of the Kremlin tower pattern drawn in spring 2022). If nothing occurs during the next 2-4 weeks, I expect ruble sellers to cool off and ruble retreat to 85 .
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
3
Raytheon - A Potential Earnings Pump To WatchEveryone wants to get rich quick. Because getting rich quick means you: a) Get rich b) Quick Then you can wear big ugly sunglasses, a crappy t-shirt, flipflops, sit on the beach, eat a lot of meat, drink a lot of alcohol, and be promiscuous with women. This is the modern human's dream, right? And so everyone loves to speculate on potential earnings pumps and dumps. There really is more to aim for in life. Raytheon is one of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex cornerstones and is more or less a weapons mill for the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, which is of note because of the recent escalations of the conflict and how it can affect the U.S. Petrodollar, and thus bonds, oil, gold, equities, everything. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Geopolitically, the conflict between China and the International Rules Based Order is heating up. The current edict is to "de-risk but not decouple" from China (notice they never say "from the Chinese Communist Party"?). In mid-June CEO Hayes was quoted by the propaganda machines as stating that decoupling from China was pretty much impossible because of all the parts and components that are manufactured in the mainland. What this means, if you ask me, is that going forward, certain companies are going to have a very hard time meeting their target EPS and revenue estimates. Raytheon may very well be one of them, as foreshadowed by a salvo of sanctions the Xi Jinping administration placed on them and Lockheed Martin. The situation in China is very volatile right now. The IRBO wants control of China when the CCP falls. Xi Jinping and the other nationalists want to make sure that outside forces do not steal the motherland. And so one day soon, we may find that Xi has thrown away the CCP in the middle of the U.S. night, and the markets will have themselves a series of consecutive red days like we've all never seen before. Xi can weaponize the crimes against humanity that the Party and the Jiang Zemin faction have committed in the persecution of Falun Gong that started on July 20, 1999, and use the truth to protect both himself and China. Organ harvesting and genocide of a group of 100 million spiritual cultivators with upright faith is certainly enough of a weapon to handle all the threats the motherland can be facing. So why do you care about this if you're trading Raytheon? Because a basic principle of markets is they go up when big money is selling and go down when big money is buying. Raytheon and other military companies ironically never really pumped following the QE recovery from the COVID pandemic dump. It wasn't until the Ukraine War began that Raytheon finally ran the highs. And then it retraced. That kind of retrace is actually really bullish and what bulls should want to see if they want their $145 billion~ company to become a $1.4 trillion company. But the problem with the theory is more manifest on the weekly charts: 31 weeks of ranging and no breakout is not bullish. And yet, after taking lows, it continues to recover. The most notable price swing is the $105 to $92 leg that just occurred. I feel that Raytheon has some fundamental hidden bearish divergences to it and this is why it has traded this way all along, with the ultimate purpose of selling a lot high, and then selling it all above the all time high. This hidden divergence, I think, is that U.S.-based companies may find themselves cut off from the Chinese supply chain in the very near future. Only to tip all the bulls on their backs like stranded turtles and then dump and dump and dump and dump and not come back. So I believe that with the setup at hand, the catalyst is actually the July earnings. But if you look back at previous earnings, Raytheon doesn't have major pumps. It can go a bit and then it will run after. Implied volatility on options for the July 28 expiry are only 20%, slightly higher than the 17% average. But before we get there, I expect we're going to see prices return to the $92-93 range and give the best buying opportunity. The catalyst for this, I believe, will simply be market-wide correction, which I outline in the following two posts: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap And SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' In summary, there will be a shakeout in equities that will probably not be long lived, even if it's violent. And after that, things will make their final run up, many of which will set new highs or new 52W highs, etc. What's left for the remainder of 2023 and the start of 2024 doesn't look like it's going to be very pleasant, to speak frankly. So make sure if you see Raytheon at a new high, you don't go getting ahead of yourself, longing the top.
NYSE:RTXLong
by LordWrymouth
1
Grains outlook hangs in the balance of the Black Sea Grain deal The failed rebellion by the Wagner group over the June 24th weekend brought to light not only the ineptitude of the Russian top military command but also the carefully crafted image of President Putin as the guarantor of stability. Putin’s assertion that the quick end of the 24-hour revolt had shown the unity of Russians behind him was contradicted by footage of adoring crowds cheering Prigozhin and his fighters as they came out of a southern city they had occupied. It is possible that Putin could step up the escalation between Russia and Ukraine to re-establish his position which currently appears weakened. The recent political turmoil in Russia lowers the probability of the Black Sea Grain deal being extended beyond mid-July (current deal expires on July 18th). No respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling Even prior to the failed coup in Russia, pessimism had been expressed by both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. One senior Ukrainian diplomat has even spoken of a 99% probability of Russia withdrawing from the agreement. Russia has repeatedly threatened to quit the deal, complaining that obstacles remain to its own exports of food and fertilizer. It has also demanded the re-opening of the ammonia pipeline as a condition for renewing the grain corridor deal through the Black Sea. However, the ammonia pipeline was damaged a day before the Kakhovka dam was destroyed on June 6. This increases the risk that Russia could after all follow through on its threat and revoke the grain deal as early as July. Grains outlook clouded by Black Sea Grain deal The original agreement brokered on 22 July 2022, by the United Nations and Turkey to open a safe maritime humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea helped to address the global food security crisis and lower grains prices. Participants on the agricultural markets remain anxious on the extension of the current deal and it could lend additional tailwinds to grains prices. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, wheat, corn and soybeans saw a 21%, 43% and 35% decline in short positioning underscoring a shift in sentiment towards weather uncertainty and geopolitical risk premiums. Top wheat producers forecast weak supply outlook owing to adverse weather conditions The prospects for the wheat crop in key producer countries has disappointed of late owing to adverse weather conditions. Dry conditions and low soil moisture in the west and east coasts of Australia imply that much of the 2023-24 crop has been sown dry and will require adequate and timely rain to allow the plants to germinate. Wheat is a major winter crop in Australia with planting from April and the harvest starting in November. The expected onset of the El Niño conditions from July will likely see winter crop output fall significantly according to Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES). Across the globe, wild weather is affecting crops elsewhere, including Americas and North Africa. Europe is also being impacted by high temperatures and scant rainfall, increasing the risk of damage to the continent’s wheat crops. On the flip side, Canada and Ukrainian wheat supply forecasts are positive. According to Statistics Canada, 26.9 million acres have been planted with wheat – not only is this the highest figure in 22 years, it is also 0.4 million acres more than the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected . The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) predicts significantly higher yields this year, meaning that the crop – contrary to what has been expected so far – could actually turn out to be higher than last season. However Ukrainian farmers are likely to struggle to export their grain owing to the uncertainty surrounding the Black Sea grains corridor. Corn market remains bullish Dry weather in the US and Europe has seen the condition of the corn and soybean crop deteriorate resulting in a price positive environment for corn and soybean. The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) in its latest crop progress report continues to highlight concerns for the US corn and soybean crop, given the current dry weather conditions. The USDA rates 50% of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition compared to 67% seen at the same stage last year. Moreover, the rating of the corn crop is the lowest seen for this time of year since 1988. This implies that the USDA’s optimistic forecast of 15.3bn bushels for the us corn crop in 2023/24 will hardly prove reasonable any longer. The National Centres for Environmental Prediction said it expects many parts of the Corn Belt that have been turning dry over the past month will get more rain than usual for this time of year over the next two weeks marking a change from earlier indications that El Niño would limit rainfall for thirsty crops. Soybean is also facing a similar story with 51% of the soybean crop rated good-to-excellent condition compared to 65% at the same time last year . Growing pessimism over the extension of the Black Sea Grains deal beyond mid-July is also likely to lend an additional tailwind for corn and soybean. Weak Chinese imports through most of the 2022/23 season surged in May to over 14.8mmt of corn, wheat, and soybeans, which was the highest monthly total since June 2021 . However we would caution that a fairly muted crop-based biofuel quotas from the US Environmental Protection Agency could offset some of the strength in Chinese demand. The front end of the soybean futures curve has extended its backwardation, now providing investors a 6.4% roll yield compared to 0% last month . This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
N
by aneekaguptaWTE
7
✏️ XAU/USD : Gold Will be Fall more ?By examining this chart in the weekly time frame, we can see that the price had faced the pressure of demand several times in the past weeks by reaching $1935 and even managed to grow up to $1984! Now the price has penetrated below this level and this can cause gold to fall more in the weekly time frame! If the price stabilizes below $1938, we can expect a drop to targets below $1900! If this scenario is realized, its downward targets are $1901, $1872, $1856, and $1847, respectively! Don't Forghet To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for more ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban The Last and Main TA :
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
14
GLD Bullish Outlook 06/26-30/2023AMEX:GLD is hot on my watch list as uncertainty in the world markets should cause investors to park their money in gold. AMEX:GLD is down -4% for the quarter and is due for a rebound. Technical Analysis: AMEX:GLD has been consolidating in a falling wedge and is approaching the .618 retrace at 177.24. I lean bullish on AMEX:GLD as long as we don’t break the falling wedge structure and can hold above the gap at 176.18. I am expecting a gap fill to the upside at 181.37. Bears will want to see this falling wedge invalidate with a gap to fill to the downside at 173.80. Upside Targets: 178.75 → 179.84 → 181.08 → 181.97 → 183.21 Downside Targets: 177.78 → 176.82 → 176.20 → 174.83 → 174.46
AMEX:GLD
by peterjames_6
$XAU - NATH's Ahead ? LONG opportunities incoming for Gold *W (tf) (wave 5) Wave 4 completed ? Long Confirmation is anticipated with the red trendline resistance breakout and CHoCH's on smaller time frames. Current support trendline support on green and 20EMA on *W TA speaking, Gold is sitting at a very sweet spot until the uptrend is invalidated - Looking ahead for New All Time Highs for Gold in the midst of this troubleshooting frenzy Economic Enviroment US's Debt Ceiling Crisis and governments not trusting any longer The US Dollar in their balance sheets. Did you know that through-out 2022 and the on-going of 2023 amongst many countries, Russia and China, two Global Superpowers, have been stacking Gold up as their State Reserves in heavy amounts ! Do they know something we don't !? TRADE SAFE ! *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based alone in this idea
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mr_J__fx