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ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.01.09Here markets are starting to see shorts pick up momentum, this has been a very very easy ride so far since our initial entry (see diagram): Oil has drastically sold off, and risk sentiment in the M.E is fading. While we failed to clear 70 we managed to unwind some at 65 on the Iran spike. No reason to change course here yet, market sits itching to breakdown. Remain on the sell side. Tracking closely for the flush in USDRUB to 60 with NFP tomorrow to kickstart the next iteration in flows. For the flows: Sell LMT Entry 61.2 | TP 60.0 | SL 62.0 ... It is the same story in EURRUB as we complete the final few ticks: GL those trading RUB into NFP.
Short
by ridethepig
2
Christmas Trading, Fed & Aussie BreakthroughThe pound had dropped below 1.30 earlier in the week. AUDUSD gained a foothold above the resistance level of 0.6900. If this breakdown turns out to be stable, then a wide space opens up for the AUDUSD for further growth to at least 0.7020 or even 0.7200. Since AUDUSD is above 0.6900, its purchases seem to us profitable. But in any case, remember the Australian dollar refers to commodity currencies, which means it is extremely sensitive to news from the fields of trade wars. Further de-escalation of the conflict will contribute to the implementation of the scenario described above. But the slightest fears about the negotiations between the USA and China can negate yesterday’s breakdown. In addition to the Australian dollar, what is happening on the foreign exchange market is worth noting except the inability of the pound to go below 1.2920, which can be taken as a signal that a panic wave has subsided. In this case, upon the return of the GBPUSD above 1.30, we recommend its purchases. Today we’ll talk about the monetary policy of the Fed and a rake the Fed stepped on. The Trump invades not only the politics and economy of the United States but also intervenes in the activities of an independent body, the Central Bank. Yes, the direct threats and calls of Trump are ignored by the Fed, but there are indirect points (for example, the consequences of trade wars) that the Central Bank cannot ignore. So the Fed’s attempt to normalize monetary policy and smoothly blow out the price bubbles that have formed in the stock market, corporate lending market and the debt market, faced with the consequences of the trade wars unleashed by Trump. And in 2019, instead of the planned increase in the rate by 0.50% -0.75%, the Fed cuts the rate three times. Thus, provoking further inflation of bubbles. So, the consequences will be more disastrous. The World Bank predicts China the role of the epicentre of a new global crisis. So we may well face a new Asian crisis, but unlike 1998, the matter will not be limited to a slight fright and default of a single Russia.
by Trade24Fx
2
EXPRESS Long-term and medium-term forecast for USDRUBEXPRESS Long-term and medium-term forecast for USDRUB Dear friends, This idea is open and published as part of my content promotion. I draw your attention to the fact that from 11.11 all forecasts are only in the closed channel. At the moment, there are already reviews on GOLD, EURUSD, S&P 500 I hope you find this idea useful and support it with your like. EXPRESS Long-term and medium-term forecast for USDRUB Most likely scenarios: Global scenario - movement within the bull channel Weekly TF - movement within the descending channel. Daily TF - the most likely target for bulls before the end of the year is 64.50 - 65.20 rubles The key change scenario is the red line. The exit below will mean an appreciation of the ruble shortly, with a possible minimum of 62 rubles (see red arrows) If the current scenario continues, the maximum will be around 65.50 rubles for 1 USD (see grey arrows). Full analysis for the next year will be possible to do only at the close of the December candle. Good luck to everyone and good profits! Yours faithfully, Michael @Hyipov =================================================== ====== Like and subscribe if you liked the material I will be glad to any message. Thank you very much Everyone GTI Dear Friends, I remind you that this is only my personal view of the market, which I share with you. I do not guarantee profits. Only you make the final decision and all the risks associated with it.
by Hypov
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2019.02.12Here we go for a round of EM FX market updates and with Oil on the move first up USDRUB. After the doldrums of Thanksgiving liquidity is starting to enter back into play, although with market out of position there is no need to overload exposure. The USD tide is turning and clients here are pressing the buy side on RUB crosses to play the dollar sell-off. More activity coming with NY session, a good level to pick up offers as the cross drives through technical momentum at 64.3x. Best of luck all those in RUB
Short
by ridethepig
3
In Soviet Russia, Money Buys YOU! - (USDRUB)Hello Traders! The Ruble has been in a steady uptrend for a while now. It's no secret that Russian debt, lowest of developed nations (Roughly $200B) is so low now that Russia claims to have enough cash on hand to cover their debts completely. After the last Russian economic crisis, policies under Putin have sought to eliminate debt and generate faith in the economy. I believe strong fundamentals combined with positive technicals create here a wonderful long opportunity! We can start layering in immediately. Even TD9 shows an imminent buy opportunity. Be careful of manipulation! Stay safe and good luck traders.
Long
by vox-populi
Saudi Aramco Fire to be Bullish Oil? If you have not heard, Saudi Aramco refineries apparently got hit by a drone attack and are now in flames. The US has come out and blamed Iran for this attack. This should be bullish oil, I am looking for a break above the 58.75 zone. I am bearish on oil given the fundamentals and the fact that we are likely heading to a recession. However, anything geopolitical will keep oil buoyed. To be honest oil needs to be kept up. A lot of western oil companies took out loans from banks during the recent fall in oil. If oil falls and these oil companies feel the pinch once again and cannot afford to pay their loans to the banks...the banks will also fall. Oil seems like it needs to be 'managed' above 40 or 50 to keep these companies from falling. If you have read my work on the US Dollar, I have outlined why the Dollar going HIGHER will exacerbate the world problems. You can read that post linked below. Russia and China are attacking Dollar demand. Right now the US has what the French called 'exorbitant privilege' meaning as long as the Dollar remains the reserve currency, there will always be artificial demand for it. Meaning the US can print as much dollars they want without having to care about their debt and deficits. Once US Dollar demand takes a hit, the Chinese can sell off their treasuries and do some damage ( especially when interest rates are cut and moved lower). But they are targeting the Petro Dollar: the US Dollar being used for oil payments. Iran is key for Russia and China. As the US Dollar gets stronger, nations such as South Korea, Japan, Turkey, India and some European nations have chosen to purchase oil from Iran because Iran accepts any currency besides the US Dollar for their oil. Japan, South Korea and some European nations have chosen to lessen or halt their imports due to US pressure. However Turkey and India told the US to mind their own business. The Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira have been decimated due to the US Dollar strength. These nations essentially cannot afford using the Dollar to buy Oil. Iran is convenient for them because they can use their own currency to purchase oil. As the US Dollar gets stronger, more nations will want to ditch the petro dollar and purchase Iranian oil. On a side note, Russia and China have put a lot of money into Venezuela and backing Maduro...it is likely they have told him that when Venezuelan production comes back to par, Venezuela will NOT accept US Dollars for their oil. Whereas the US backed Guaido would essentially only accept US Dollars for Oil. We have seen this situation occur with Saddan Hussain in Iraq and Gaddafi in Libya where it was likely they were taken out due to the fact they were beginning to accept other currencies besides the Dollar. The Russian and Chinese plan is simple. To get more nations to drop the US Dollar as the Dollar price goes up. In fact with their large Gold reserves, they may be telling dark pools to keep buying the dollar. Yes, there currency will fall against the US Dollar, but their gold priced against their currency increases so they avoid damage. This is how the Russian central bank pretty much fought off US Sanctions. So as the Dollar gets stronger, more nations will elect to purchase oil from Iran. This means that Saudi Arabia begins to lose market share because their customers are going to Iran. This would force the Saudi's to drop the Dollar in order to entice customers...but there is another thing. Putin has been getting close with Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) who is expected to be the next King. We have all seen that Putin-MBS and Trump watching from behind high five meme. It is likely that when MBS becomes King, he will drop the US Dollar with a guarantee that the Russian military will offer Saudi Arabia protection from any US responses. Right now Saudi Arabia can influence American foreign policy greatly. I am sure they have told the US to deal with Iran otherwise they drop the Petro Dollar. They are in a very strong position. For the Americans, I think they know that Iran is the key. They know they need to take Iran out. Of course Iran is no pushover. But the military will have to strike Iran in order to protect US Dollar demand. The US military is the armed branch of the Federal Reserve and the US will have to use the military to force every nations to accept and use the US Dollar and punish those that do not.
TVC:USOIL
by Uncharted-FX
21
EURRUB | A Possible Mid-Term BUY Area.Hi, Slowly I start to add some mid-term (weeks, months) trading & investment opportunities into my TradingView account. The first one which looks technically pretty nice is EURRUB. Pretty soon you can start building your long position on EURRUB and it starts from the round number 70. Obviously, do your own research, read fundamentals and etc. Technical criteria are: 1. Previously worked resistance becomes support. In 2017, this level worked 2 to 3* times as a resistance level. Actually, it has worked also as a support level - in 2016 July and 2015 October-November 2. The round number 70 should act as a support level 3. The black trendlines make this wide support area much stronger 4. Weekly EMA200 acts as a support level. 5. Minor trendline (blue) third touch matching exactly with the blue box. This minor trendline is also a lower trendline from the bullish chart pattern "Falling Wedge". It is just information because patterns are only then valid when the breakout has occurred! 6.(!) Wait for a bullish candlestick formation to be more secure. As said, do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to build your long position! Please, take a second to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Best regards, Vaido
Long
by VaidoVeek
1
Daily MOEX Russia stock market Index forecast analysis22-Jul Price trend forecast timing analysis based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength. Investing position: In Falling section of high risk & low profit S&D strength Trend: In the midst of a downward trend of strong downward momentum price flow marked by temporary rises and strong falls. Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend. View forecasts shape of candlestick 10 days in the future: www.pretiming.com Forecast D+1 Candlestick Color : RED Candlestick %D+1 Range forecast: 0.3% (HIGH) ~ -0.6% (LOW), -0.2% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of rising: 0.7% (HIGH) ~ -0.3% (LOW), 0.4% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of falling: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.8% (LOW), -0.5% (CLOSE)
RUS:IRUS
by pretiming
FOREX, ruble, August and Jaroslaw KosatyThe fact that there was no fundamental force majeure yesterday led to the “calm” Wednesday. In fact, the last statistics outcome prepared in line with forecasts as well as UK inflation rate. After crossing the new local Minimum yesterday, the pound “changed the situation” in the afternoon. So, we recommend looking for points for its buying. Traditionally we cannot but mention Mr Trump’s Twitter account which he uses as “negotiation table”. “We have a long way to go as far as tariffs where China is concerned, if we want. We have another $325 billion we can put a tariff on, if we want,” Trump said. As the result Gold at 1430. So, we recoomend to sell gold from these points, and buy it from these 1400. As for the Russian ruble sellings. Well, August is not “the luckiest” month for the ruble. “ August's” Force majeure situations, as well as fundamental negative have affected the ruble. Start with the August Coup (1991) and default (1998) to Kursk submarine disaster and Russian-Georgian (2008) and Russian-Ukrainian wars (2014). In this light, Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. His forecast of 69 rubles per dollar. The reason is that Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing. Therefore we recommend selling Russian ruble. The Federal Reserve abandoned foreign-exchange-market intervention. Recall that a strong dollar is on Trump’s way. As a result, his verbal attacks are becoming more aggressive and let the markets suspect that the United States will move from something in mind to something in kind. Treasury can intervene without the Federal Reserve's agreement (2000). We are waiting to see if it happens again. But the rick factor exists. The most interesting trading option is short dollar. Therefore, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: sell US dollar, oil, ruble and gold, but buy the pound.
Long
by Trade24Fx
G-20 meeting, OPEC meeting & rubleThe last week was not that calm. The Fed on Wednesday it clear that they are ready to reduce the interest rate. Some of the analysts are predicting the dollar falls in the near future by 5 - 10 %. So, we are looking for dollar selling points this week. On Friday the ruble buyers experienced an unpleasant moment when the ruble literary has collapsed and lost 1 % of its value. The reason is that US lawmakers are proposing to impose sanctions against the public debt of the Russian Federation in response to Russia's intervention in the elections. Recall, we recommend to sell the ruble and the current price looks extremely attractive. As for the new sanctions, for now, this is just talking, but the reaction the ruble reaction shows that it is vulnerable even to simple rumors. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are confirmed as the final two. Boris Johnson has led the voting so far, achieving more votes each time. A winner will be picked up in a month's time. And in the meantime, the candidates are In the process of rolling out their campaigns. The upcoming week is unlikely to be an easy one. The important macroeconomic statistics will be published (US GDP data also), two important events for financial markets will take place this week. This is the OPEC meeting, where the fate of OPEC + №2 should be decided. Accordingly, the oil market could get a boost for several months. And, of course, the G-20 meeting. First of all, we are expecting a signal about the end of the trade war. By the way, if such a signal appears, we strongly recommend paying attention to gold, which gets very high and is clearly ready to fall down. Our trading preferences for the week have changed: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. But with gold purchases in the week, we slow down, at least, aggressive ones. We expect a correction in gold and prepare for its sale. The oil trade is paused, for the time being - until OPEC meeting result announcement. The ruble sales not only did not lose its relevance but also became the most attractive.
Long
by Trade24Fx