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Russia US relationsRussia and the US are butting heads again. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and both Republicans and Democrats are pushing for much stricter sanctions. A new bill called the “Defending American security from Kremlin Aggression Act (DASKA)” of 2019 will impose new sanctions on Russia. The new legislation will target Russian banks and individuals as well as Russia’s oil and gas sector. This includes anyone who is providing services, financing, goods or any support to the development of oil in Russia. This is bone chilling for Russia. USDRUB The currency pair USDRUB is in a perfect channel. Between 64.75(65.00) and 70.00. Price did not drop below the 38.2% Fibonacci level and has stayed above the 200-EMA. Price has crossed over the 21-EMA and with this we received all the signals that we need to enter a long. If price continues to stay above the 67.00 mark, we recommend opening long positions with a target at the resistance line seen in bright pink on the graph, around 69.25.
Long
by YaroslavBirchenko
The Ruble Carry TradeThe Russian currency has gained 5.7% against the Dollar thus far this year, following a large depreciation in December, resulting from an anticipation of more Western sanctions. The Ruble regained its strength in January though as the continuation of the US government shutdown and expectations of a global slowdown made the currency look more attractive. Most importantly, expectations of higher growth in the country came true as Russia grew by 2.3% in 2018, compared to forecasts of 1.8% growth. Not least, the 5.5% interest rate differential also assisted in attracting foreign money to gain from the carry trade and thus pull the rate higher. The positive carry trade potential would mean that someone in a short position would be able to earn a 99-pip positive overnight swap rate. Over January 2019, this would have amounted to approximately 2,200 pips, increasing the investor’s profit to 6.1%, in just one month. To put that in perspective, a trader shorting one standard lot of $100,000 would earn $6,100 in January. As with all things in life, things are not as simple as they seem. In this case, the caveat relates to the state of the Russian economy. In particular, the Russian economy appears to be following the rest of the world in a global slowdown, as a Reuters poll of economists suggested a consensus forecast of 1.4% in 2019, compared to 1.7% in 2018. High inflation and lending rates are expected to take their toll on the Russian economy, despite the improvement a value added tax reduction could potentially have. Most importantly, Russian Central Bank’s decision to purchase foreign currency in order to increase its reserves is likely to have a strong effect on the Ruble. Overall, the above suggests that the Ruble has the potential for carry trade gains over the year but also has the potential for a currency depreciation which could eclipse any profits from the interest rate differential. Naturally, the possibility for rate increases in the case that inflation rises more than expected also holds which would also provide a boost to the currency. However, the situation for the Russian economy will, out of all things, highly depend on the price of Oil and this is what potential traders need to focus upon. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
WAVES could be starting a new uptrend Now is definitely not the best time for trading, considering weak BTC. but some coins do show some potential. Waves is the one of them as it has its own chart that ignores Bitcoin movements. Food area for bounce. Since beginning of previous grow 0.5 correction. Once 7250 becomes support it will grow further, even against BTC (hopefully). If not stop loss can be set very close to buy zone now so risk in this trade will be minimum. Still I prefer to enter it only after it gets above that important resistance level.
WLong
by WiseAnalyze
EW ANALYSIS: Long-term And Short-term View On Russian RubleHello traders! Today we will talk about pretty clear Russian Ruble. From a technical perspective, we see very interesting price action and wave structure based on Elliott Wave theory. Let's start with Weekly chart: In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave correction follows and as you can see, USDRUB is turning down after five waves up. So, we can expect at least three waves A-B-C of decline where wave C is still missing, which means that strong Russian Ruble can be coming in the next few weeks/months. Daily chart: Looking at the daily chart we can see an impulsive five-wave rally within wave (C) of B, so seems like USDRUB has completed a flat correction and found a resistance at 70.65 level, especially because of a current sharp and impulsive decline into wave A/1 away from highs. So, what we expect now is minimum three waves of decline at least back to 61.61 area, A/1 - B/2 - C/3. Intra-day hourly chart: At the hourly chart, we can see a very nice bounce away from A/1 lows with five waves up and three waves of pullback, which means that wave B/2 can be underway and should be made by three waves a-b-c, where wave c is still missing and can be reached around ideal 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 68 area. However, we want to say that Russian Ruble can be strong in the upcoming year, so we decided to share our view, just keep in mind that this may become more complex, so as long as it's trading below 70.65 invalidation level, we will remain bearish! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
4
TREND REVERSAL? Nasdaq is forming a head and shoulders pattern!This year has been a wild ride for the Nasdaq and it seems this is just the beginning! After a strong bullrun for the last 750 days the market is cooling down. Political uncertainty (Syria, North Korea and the ongoing discussion of Russia's influence during the US election) combined with economical uncertainty (FED interest rate, ongoing China/US trade dispute) is making investors increasingly nervous. I´m expecting a major correction in 2018 and think it is going to be way bigger than 2008. Happy to hear the opinion of other investors, traders and experts on the tradingview platform.
TVC:IXICShort
by RocknRoll_Capital