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Brexit, inversion of yield curve, new sanctions against RussiaLast week ended with the “accompaniment” of the UK news. Theresa May was still able to vote on her plan to leave the EU. However, it would be better if she did not do this, since she suffered a third defeat. In theory, this should have been the final vote. Since the UK was unable to reach an agreement last week, the postponement of Brexit until May 22 is not granted. Sum up the country must either leave the EU on April 12 or request another delay. In case of a delay, it is necessary to participate in the European parliamentary elections on May 23. Meanwhile, The European Union is scheduled for an emergency summit on April 10. On Sunday, the British Prime Minister announced that she would again put her version of the agreement to a vote. This will be the fourth time (!). At the same time, she gave a none-too-subtle hint that if the deputies do not vote “for”, then early parliamentary elections will be called. This week might not be easy to the pound. Last week, the pound was naturally under pressure. However, in our opinion, the situation continues to evolve as it has been doing recently. There is an absolutely conscious inhibition of the process. Obviously, the UK will ask for a reprieve, and the EU will provide it. Our position is unchanged - the descents of the pound, we continue to use for his purchases and earnings. There's a lot of chatter about the inversion of the yield curve among the analysts recently. Last week, the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds was equal to the yield on 10-year. This is a rather atypical phenomenon, often a sign of a future recession in the economy. So concern is growing. Against this background, we continue to believe that buying gold on the intraday basis and in the medium term is a good trading idea. About our trading ideas. Our recommendation on sales of the Russian ruble was just fine on Friday. We have repeatedly noted that the strengthening of the ruble is temporary, because it does not have “the ground”, and the ruble itself is vulnerable. It was confirmed clearly on Friday. New information on US sanctions brought down the ruble. We are talking about the second set of sanctions related to the Skripal case. According to Bloomberg, the sanctions include measures against the Russian banking sector. There is no chance to relax this week. A lot of static information led by statistics on the US labor market on Friday. Brexit news, new sanctions against Russia will not allow to relax. We will inform our readers about the biggest events.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Second stage of EM rally?After previously tracking the reversal (see attached: "Another key reversal in play in USDRUB") finally the break of 65 has come. From a technical standpoint this was important as it unlocked the 62.5 lows. Russia has been one of the out performers on the currency board so far this year and I continue to see scope for more gains, irrespective of the very near term reversal in dollar. The risk here to the setup is coming from sanctions related risk. Russian authorities have been quick to take measures to insulate the economy (reaction to DASKAA bill). Best of luck all those trading EM and thanks for keeping the likes and comments rolling
Short
by ridethepig
USOIL on path to 58.50 before falling towards 50. Pending short?Technical analysis uncovers path that may bring a lot of possibilities of trading, but also a lot of risk, stay close to the news and comments about USOIL, and also monitor the development of the pattern in the following days and weeks. Time-frame: one month. Resistance: 58.52 Support: 48.90 Trading setup scenario: After price reaches 58.52 we short it on a daily close below it. Target 51.20, and 49. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Supplied information is not an advice.
TVC:USOILShort
by TheTrade_Academ
TURNING POINT IN INCREASE TREND OF GAZPROM NEFTTECHINCAL ANALYSIS OF MOEX:SIBN What do we have? 1. From July 2017 to October 2018, share prices of MOEX:SIBN increased by more than 115%. 2. MACD is below 0, which indicates a decreasing trend. 3. The DM shows the beginning of the suppression of the negative trend of the extreme line from the bottom up, which also indicates the beginning of the declining trend. 4. ATR indicator, which is formulated as follows: the higher the value of the indicator, the higher the probability of a trend change; the lower its value, the weaker the trend direction. In this case, the indicator is located at the highest levels at the top (12.4) and indicates the damping of the uptrend. The last time this value was in February 2015 and after that the price rolled back by more than 40%. 5. The ADX indicator is in a low value, which shows a trend towards a reversal or correction of the market. Conclusion. Most likely, prices will decline to a minimum of 317 rubles, which corresponds to 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement from the current growth. The confirmation of this prediction will be a breakout of the current price of the triangle down below the 360 RUB. Trading recommendation: Open short position when reaching the level of 359.8 rubles, take profit at the level of 317 rubles (11.3% profit). Stop loss-the middle of the triangle 377 rubles. (4.45% loss) Alternative scenario: If the price overcomes the previous maximum of 404 rubles. it makes sense to open the long up to 485 rubles. (which corresponds to 361.8 Fibo expansion).
RUS:SIBNShort
by Fandorinn
Russia US relationsRussia and the US are butting heads again. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and both Republicans and Democrats are pushing for much stricter sanctions. A new bill called the “Defending American security from Kremlin Aggression Act (DASKA)” of 2019 will impose new sanctions on Russia. The new legislation will target Russian banks and individuals as well as Russia’s oil and gas sector. This includes anyone who is providing services, financing, goods or any support to the development of oil in Russia. This is bone chilling for Russia. USDRUB The currency pair USDRUB is in a perfect channel. Between 64.75(65.00) and 70.00. Price did not drop below the 38.2% Fibonacci level and has stayed above the 200-EMA. Price has crossed over the 21-EMA and with this we received all the signals that we need to enter a long. If price continues to stay above the 67.00 mark, we recommend opening long positions with a target at the resistance line seen in bright pink on the graph, around 69.25.
Long
by YaroslavBirchenko
The Ruble Carry TradeThe Russian currency has gained 5.7% against the Dollar thus far this year, following a large depreciation in December, resulting from an anticipation of more Western sanctions. The Ruble regained its strength in January though as the continuation of the US government shutdown and expectations of a global slowdown made the currency look more attractive. Most importantly, expectations of higher growth in the country came true as Russia grew by 2.3% in 2018, compared to forecasts of 1.8% growth. Not least, the 5.5% interest rate differential also assisted in attracting foreign money to gain from the carry trade and thus pull the rate higher. The positive carry trade potential would mean that someone in a short position would be able to earn a 99-pip positive overnight swap rate. Over January 2019, this would have amounted to approximately 2,200 pips, increasing the investor’s profit to 6.1%, in just one month. To put that in perspective, a trader shorting one standard lot of $100,000 would earn $6,100 in January. As with all things in life, things are not as simple as they seem. In this case, the caveat relates to the state of the Russian economy. In particular, the Russian economy appears to be following the rest of the world in a global slowdown, as a Reuters poll of economists suggested a consensus forecast of 1.4% in 2019, compared to 1.7% in 2018. High inflation and lending rates are expected to take their toll on the Russian economy, despite the improvement a value added tax reduction could potentially have. Most importantly, Russian Central Bank’s decision to purchase foreign currency in order to increase its reserves is likely to have a strong effect on the Ruble. Overall, the above suggests that the Ruble has the potential for carry trade gains over the year but also has the potential for a currency depreciation which could eclipse any profits from the interest rate differential. Naturally, the possibility for rate increases in the case that inflation rises more than expected also holds which would also provide a boost to the currency. However, the situation for the Russian economy will, out of all things, highly depend on the price of Oil and this is what potential traders need to focus upon. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
WAVES could be starting a new uptrend Now is definitely not the best time for trading, considering weak BTC. but some coins do show some potential. Waves is the one of them as it has its own chart that ignores Bitcoin movements. Food area for bounce. Since beginning of previous grow 0.5 correction. Once 7250 becomes support it will grow further, even against BTC (hopefully). If not stop loss can be set very close to buy zone now so risk in this trade will be minimum. Still I prefer to enter it only after it gets above that important resistance level.
WLong
by WiseAnalyze
EW ANALYSIS: Long-term And Short-term View On Russian RubleHello traders! Today we will talk about pretty clear Russian Ruble. From a technical perspective, we see very interesting price action and wave structure based on Elliott Wave theory. Let's start with Weekly chart: In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave correction follows and as you can see, USDRUB is turning down after five waves up. So, we can expect at least three waves A-B-C of decline where wave C is still missing, which means that strong Russian Ruble can be coming in the next few weeks/months. Daily chart: Looking at the daily chart we can see an impulsive five-wave rally within wave (C) of B, so seems like USDRUB has completed a flat correction and found a resistance at 70.65 level, especially because of a current sharp and impulsive decline into wave A/1 away from highs. So, what we expect now is minimum three waves of decline at least back to 61.61 area, A/1 - B/2 - C/3. Intra-day hourly chart: At the hourly chart, we can see a very nice bounce away from A/1 lows with five waves up and three waves of pullback, which means that wave B/2 can be underway and should be made by three waves a-b-c, where wave c is still missing and can be reached around ideal 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 68 area. However, we want to say that Russian Ruble can be strong in the upcoming year, so we decided to share our view, just keep in mind that this may become more complex, so as long as it's trading below 70.65 invalidation level, we will remain bearish! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
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