Russia
Long EURRUB - mid term setupLooking forward for a reversal in Euro / Ruble pair in a short time around low 60s levels.
Watching for a MA(14), as even 1 bar breakout can result a change of movement.
To be continue with UPDs after mid-March expiration.
Our initial target is at 80 lvl.
USDRUB Consolidation patternUSDRUB is in a consolidation pattern looking to break out. The consolidation is getting tighter and tighter. Look to go LONG or SHORT once a direction is found. If it breaks below, I will go short and hold for a long time because there is very little support beneath 48. (My bias remains on the downside but only time will tell.)
Fundamentally Mispriced Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) – PreliminaryCaution: Preliminary Research – not an investment advice
What yesterday looked like a good long, today looks like even better one after the security took a 5% hit today.
What we're looking at: Gazprom mispriced at the fundamental level, giving a chance to almost double – according to the research, one could anticipate an appreciation of anywhere between 82 and 106 per cent. The implied target price range is between RUB 230.51 and RUB 260.73.
Investment horizon: months
Distressed: no
Alternative strategy:
Buy September's call option on Gazprom futures at 20000 (I'd go for more, but there aren't any), if you can find a counterparty.
Wish you x's, fam
Long Russian Stock MarketDeep in my heart I am a contrarian. Whether its investing or anything else, usually I like to take the opposite side of the consensus. For this reason, I have been attracted to the Russian stock market for a couple of years. I'm a big reader of Jim Rogers, and I listen to any new YouTube video he appears, and he initially got me started in Russia in 2015.
With Russia hated by so many in the US, its easy to miss the great investing opportunities in Russia. For starters, their market PE ratio is only 5.67, compared to the US 27. Secondly, Russia has a ton of agricultural land that is poised for growth and innovation. I am trying to find a way to play Russian Agriculture specifically, but as of right now, I haven't found a reliable answer. If one of y'all has any ideas, please let me know!
Nevertheless, looking at the weekly charts, RSX has been beaten up since 2011.However, RSX did just break its 200 MA in a bullish manner, so I took the long side at 20.78 with a stop loss at 19.31, I am currently risking 0.50% of my capital on this trade. I have moved up my stop a little bit as the share price rises.
Regardless of what happens to Russia, I am very comfortable with this trade and expect it to deliver asymmetric results. If not, I lose less than 1% of my capital.
All the best,
RC
RSX: Time@Mode case study - Weekly uptrend, new signal soonThe Russian stock market index ETF is acting strongly. I think we can expect continuation of the uptrend within a couple weeks. So, try to go long on dips if not already in. I'm long using $EEM personally, but, both are good now. Longer term, the trend could evolve into a monthly rally, so I wouldn't want to miss it early on.
You can see how the trends acted and were predictable using the 'Time at mode' methodology in this timeframe. The last signal time expired, so we are waiting for a new 14 week or longer uptrend signal to form here. Potentially, it can rally following the yellow arrow on chart, if it does indeed trigger a new uptrend signal.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDRUBIs this analisis right or wrong?
The answer will be given in the middle of 2018.
For now, we are looking close to 0.5 Fibo level, as the price 54.50 is shown.
There might be a good long term buy (long positions) opportunities.
The "carry trade" is more preferable, it means
we will open short positions as USDRUB price goes to 86-88 for long term investment.
USDRUB (MOEX). New count. Back to September idea. Target 44. Quite often the first idea in your mind is correct, call it divine providence but it works.
So the more I am analyzing corrective structures the better should be labelling ))).
So this detailed count of what was seen last September - into related ideas below.
The target is conservative at 44 RUB where Y=W.
USDRUB Update. Possible wave count. MOEX edition.This is the chart based on official exchange data though it's quite clean without choppy tales.
It is an update.
I added alternative count in yellow, which implies longer wave 5.
The white trendlines isolate the current move successfully so watch their integrity closely.
Happy New Year!
RTSI @ daily @ best index (of 55) 2016! While january`17 flat ?Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
58 SHARE INDICES worldwide (2016 Yearly Performance) @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
USOIL: Uptrend failure is possibleOil's uptrend has been relentless but the advance slowed down to a grind lately, approaching areas of key resistance, where usually supply swamps demand to date. Fundamentals favor the downside here, and I think it's logical to expect a sell off, as OPEC's deal fails to surmount the sale of the US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that was recently announced, as well as a pro-US shale, pro-exploration in Alaska, etc. President Trump.
This also happens to hurt Russia and their currency, which would be something I'd expect to see favored by the US, to slow down Russia's momentum strategically, at this crucial point in time. But hey 'Didn't Trump praise Putin?', well yes, but: www.zerohedge.com
Despite what the narrative and the rhetoric is, actions of the different actors speak louder, the thing is being able to figure out when fundamentals and logic start to matter more than momentum and social mood. Let's keep an eye on oil around here, if it doesn't hit the target I labeled on chart in time, it's likely to sell off. A move under support, will see oil drop to the levels below as signaled on the chart.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Russian stock indices enjoy broad gains since Trump's electionMICEX (ruble denominated index of TOP 50 Russian shares) and RTS (US Dollar denominated) stock indices demonstrate a clear bullish rally since the US President Election Day, marked as vertical line on the charts.
The MICEX index has gained 14,2% since the election to date and 26,7% YTD; RTS performance is even more impressive with 17,7% and 50,9% rise, accordingly, thanks to RUB strengthening in the displayed period.