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RSX: Time@Mode case study - Weekly uptrend, new signal soonThe Russian stock market index ETF is acting strongly. I think we can expect continuation of the uptrend within a couple weeks. So, try to go long on dips if not already in. I'm long using $EEM personally, but, both are good now. Longer term, the trend could evolve into a monthly rally, so I wouldn't want to miss it early on. You can see how the trends acted and were predictable using the 'Time at mode' methodology in this timeframe. The last signal time expired, so we are waiting for a new 14 week or longer uptrend signal to form here. Potentially, it can rally following the yellow arrow on chart, if it does indeed trigger a new uptrend signal. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
RLong
by IvanLabrie
USOIL: Uptrend failure is possibleOil's uptrend has been relentless but the advance slowed down to a grind lately, approaching areas of key resistance, where usually supply swamps demand to date. Fundamentals favor the downside here, and I think it's logical to expect a sell off, as OPEC's deal fails to surmount the sale of the US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that was recently announced, as well as a pro-US shale, pro-exploration in Alaska, etc. President Trump. This also happens to hurt Russia and their currency, which would be something I'd expect to see favored by the US, to slow down Russia's momentum strategically, at this crucial point in time. But hey 'Didn't Trump praise Putin?', well yes, but: www.zerohedge.com Despite what the narrative and the rhetoric is, actions of the different actors speak louder, the thing is being able to figure out when fundamentals and logic start to matter more than momentum and social mood. Let's keep an eye on oil around here, if it doesn't hit the target I labeled on chart in time, it's likely to sell off. A move under support, will see oil drop to the levels below as signaled on the chart. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILShort
by IvanLabrie
8
USOIL: Hold longs!USOIL is tracing a daily uptrend, and broke above the recent downtrend's linear regression channel. If we hold the current uptrend pace, we can expect the top key level resistances to be hit in a day or two. I'd assume we'll stall while holding support above the monthly downtrend mode in blue, so, I'll be monitoring the uptrend progress to add to it if viable, and to time our exit. I think it's possible we get an OPEC production cut agreement, which could squeeze most shorts, who don't believe it is possible, and the overall bearish retail traders. Trump could play out as a wild card here as well, so it's worth it to keep some long exposure to energy, oil and gas in particular. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT? Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to be welcomed by Iran/ Russia et al. who have recently been able to offer their produce to the market As above It only takes one party out of the 10/20 opec members for the whole agreement to fall through, a cartel does not work unless ALL parties agree since failiure to do so causes economic inequities which void business logic otherwise. - thus this trade is a bet that one or more members will indeed fail to agree and thus void the output cut deal. 3. Fundamentally also being short here makes some sense since it is around 50-60USD that USD shales producers are able to enter the market thus prices above 50 incur a level of natural supply which acts as a price smoother. Furthermore the oil rally from 40-50 was purely based on an OPEC cut. Fair equilibrium for oil is in the region of 40-45USD imo. Not to mention Fed hike risk and the USD topside are all welcomed downside drivers. 4. Technically oil at 50usd is at some good resistance, whilst oil vol is at yearly lows. Vol is likely to pick up as negotiations heat up, this may also see oil trader better on the offer. 5. Lets not also forget that the main reason opec flooded the oil market back in 2014 was in order to maintain their dominant position and prevent US shale. Thus it is even more questionable the legitimacy of this agreement (thus making it even more unlikely imo). Trading strategy - short WTI Oil at 50usd or on rallies above: 1. Short oil above 50 running a 2:1 risk profile. 44TP is advised from a support perspective and stops could be placed at 52 just above cycle highs for 3:1 or more tactical positions at 53 for 2:1. 2. FX players may instead opt to trade $CAD. Entries here should look for above 1.34 with 200pips TP and 100pips of risk. This is perhaps a better way to express a FED hike view and dollar bid sentiment. Coupled with poor Loonie macro.
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
USOIL: Short term updateUSOIL has filled our limit buys to take a short term long position, while we hold our weekly buys, and the add on we took recently. We have a validation target that needs to be hit within the next 2 days now. Tomorrow and until Friday, we have very data and news heavy days, so we can expect a sizeable move here, maybe even a make or break moment for this uptrend. If we respect the validation target, we can safely hold longs, if not we'll have to study price action closely, since we might embark in a correction in oil's uptrend. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie