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USOIL: Hold longs!USOIL is tracing a daily uptrend, and broke above the recent downtrend's linear regression channel. If we hold the current uptrend pace, we can expect the top key level resistances to be hit in a day or two. I'd assume we'll stall while holding support above the monthly downtrend mode in blue, so, I'll be monitoring the uptrend progress to add to it if viable, and to time our exit. I think it's possible we get an OPEC production cut agreement, which could squeeze most shorts, who don't believe it is possible, and the overall bearish retail traders. Trump could play out as a wild card here as well, so it's worth it to keep some long exposure to energy, oil and gas in particular. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT? Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to be welcomed by Iran/ Russia et al. who have recently been able to offer their produce to the market As above It only takes one party out of the 10/20 opec members for the whole agreement to fall through, a cartel does not work unless ALL parties agree since failiure to do so causes economic inequities which void business logic otherwise. - thus this trade is a bet that one or more members will indeed fail to agree and thus void the output cut deal. 3. Fundamentally also being short here makes some sense since it is around 50-60USD that USD shales producers are able to enter the market thus prices above 50 incur a level of natural supply which acts as a price smoother. Furthermore the oil rally from 40-50 was purely based on an OPEC cut. Fair equilibrium for oil is in the region of 40-45USD imo. Not to mention Fed hike risk and the USD topside are all welcomed downside drivers. 4. Technically oil at 50usd is at some good resistance, whilst oil vol is at yearly lows. Vol is likely to pick up as negotiations heat up, this may also see oil trader better on the offer. 5. Lets not also forget that the main reason opec flooded the oil market back in 2014 was in order to maintain their dominant position and prevent US shale. Thus it is even more questionable the legitimacy of this agreement (thus making it even more unlikely imo). Trading strategy - short WTI Oil at 50usd or on rallies above: 1. Short oil above 50 running a 2:1 risk profile. 44TP is advised from a support perspective and stops could be placed at 52 just above cycle highs for 3:1 or more tactical positions at 53 for 2:1. 2. FX players may instead opt to trade $CAD. Entries here should look for above 1.34 with 200pips TP and 100pips of risk. This is perhaps a better way to express a FED hike view and dollar bid sentiment. Coupled with poor Loonie macro.
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
USOIL: Short term updateUSOIL has filled our limit buys to take a short term long position, while we hold our weekly buys, and the add on we took recently. We have a validation target that needs to be hit within the next 2 days now. Tomorrow and until Friday, we have very data and news heavy days, so we can expect a sizeable move here, maybe even a make or break moment for this uptrend. If we respect the validation target, we can safely hold longs, if not we'll have to study price action closely, since we might embark in a correction in oil's uptrend. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" The End of the WorldThe folks at Tradingview recommended using a catchy title. If the end of the world doesn't catch your attention then probably nothing will. This end of the world is probably not as endy as, say, Y2K where the only safe place to be was on top of the active volcano Mt. Shasta. It's just the end of the road for Deutsche Bank and the current basket of currencies deemed worthy by the IMF. Notice Bitcoin is not included. Feel the bias? Jim Rickards is predicting a currencyapolypse on September 30. Well, he's got a newsletter to sell. Will it really happen? He must be looking at my bitcoin chart because we agree on the date for a tide change. Let's talk wedgy. Next week there is a trend convergence. The down trend emanating from the 2013 blow off top (blue solid trend line) and the current up trend (red hash trend line). I predict a break out up or down out of the wedge not sideways. What are the chances for a down breakout? There's no bad Bitcoin news. No problems with the blockchain. Bitfinex is healing with the BFX token gaining value. New exchanges opening around the world with the most significant being Mexico. I think the chance for downside breakout is minimal. What are the chances for an upside breakout? China is kicking up a storm. Japan is scrambling fighter jets. Another Yuan devaluation is rumoured. The US and Russia are threatening to radiate each other over Syria. Deutsche bailout is all but assured. This will devalue the Euro instantly. The IMF is threatening to dilute the USD reserve currency status. So, if the Euro and USD devalue at the same time does that make the Brexited GBP and gold more valuable? Whatever! There is huge upward pressure on Bitcoin if any or all happen. I predict a BTC price rise to $750 by February is in the cards. By then we will know which clown will be President. All currency and metal vibration from that event will settle back to the fiscal reality of disaster ahead. Neither of the leading clowns knows how to solve the US financial problem. Technically the Stochastic oscillator has bottomed! Or, the solar storm heading our way could make all the volcanoes erupt at the same time completely upending the climate change agreement and Governor Jerry Browns assault on bovine flatulence. So be it... The end of the world is nigh.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by investigator
4