Get started

Russia

As #OPEC Meets, #Crude May Feel DisappointedTomorrow, members of OPEC will meet in Vienna, and it is unlikely there will be any policy shifts. Despite the dire straits some OPEC members are in, such as Venezuela, the current crude production policy will likely remain until Iran and Russia agree to some sort of production resolution. MacroView has been overly bearish since June 2014 but indicating that the one key dynamic factor in crude prices would be supply (same goes for Brent and OPEC). Essentially, West Texas Intermediate would continue to see woes until there were meaningful cutbacks in crude production, which finally began to filter through on a combination of record-low rig counts and bankruptcies (yes, bankruptcies are bullish). Crude output levels in the U.S. are at levels last seen during the second-half of 2014. West Texas Intermediate has been trading within the current supply range between $48/50 for the last 12 trading sessions, and price action is currently treating the current trend support on narrowing price action. If OPEC disappoints tomorrow, and break through trend would cause traders to seek out support near $42, while a confirmed breakout of the supply zone could trigger buying to $55. The weekly chart picture for crude: OPEC's production has largely offset declines seen by U.S. shale producers, and members will continue to press on. Iran has said they look to achieve 2.2 Mbbl/day to compete with Saudi for market share; Iraq and Kuwait both look to increase their production meaningfully. Non-OPEC member Russia continues to keep oil production at post-Soviet highs. Side note: expect volatility in commodities currencies on headline risk. The Canadian dollar has pulled back after gaining 18 percent on crude's rally, but it remains vulnerable. For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us. Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
NYMEX:CL1!
by MacroView_Research
Another unsustainable rally based on commoditiesFollowing the recent oil rally, the Russian equity index has also rallied about 30%. However, this - like the oil rally and the Petrobras rally I posted about - is unsustainable. See my post attached here for why the oil rally is unsustainable. Why is RTS unsustainable? Firstly, it is likely to follow oil's possible move down. Secondly, Russia is still in quite a severe recession. Thirdly, Russia's economy is forecast to contract 1.5% this year. As long as the outlook for oil looks poor (as it does in my opinion), then the Russian equity index shouldn't be making rallies of 30%. Technicals The market has hit a strong level of resistance, as indicated by the upper horizontal black line.
INDEX:RTSIShort
by olly_price
1
FXMM could be building a bullish 5 wave, or is it really?FXMM continues growth after breaking 1220 resistance. It is building a bullish 5-wave pattern unless it breaks below broken resistance point (dotted red). The bullish momentum can mark the start of the new uptrend that can last for several years and most likely complete wave 5 at 1.618 fib level(1301.09). A bullish breakout above this level could see wave 6,7,8,9 push to the next Fib targets. The support zone 1114.4-1090 stays valid. We most likely will retest this levels if the Elliott Wave pattern breaks. I will recommend to buy a break to the upside, with profit targets based on structure support.
FLong
by radixvinni
7
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.) Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ." There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary. The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure. Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off. Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence. The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend. However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
C
by CommoditiesTrader