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Taf's Gun to the HeadLooking buy Nat Gas on the backdrop of a strong daily support holding.There is also a potential bullish inverse Head and Shoulders forming. Entry:6.729 Target:7.282 SL:6.503 RR:2.45 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Signal_Centre1
Forecast CNYRUB #FOREX #CNYRUB Good Saturday night to everyone! What's happening now? The Central Bank of the Russian Federation continues to keep the ruble exchange rate in manual control, which is why we are observing a protracted lateral movement. But now we will not dive into the fundamental wilds of why, why and who benefits from it, but just see what our trading system says. Especially yesterday we were all very emotionally stressed:) So there are still two key magnets on the system at the top - on ~ 11.3 and ~ 13.3 Before that, it is likely that there may be a decrease in the green zone by 6.5-7.3, where you can rebalance the foreign exchange portfolio, that is, add more yuan. At the same time, you need to understand that markets, like a world device, are now staggering and moving extremely high frequency, so any deal now is a risk! Calculate the risks in advance so that the psyche is intact in cases where everything does not go according to plan. * This post is not investment advice
Long
by airstels
GBP/USD jumpy after BoE interventionIt has been a volatile day for the pound. GBP/USD started the day with losses but has reversed directions and posted strong gains in the North American session. GBP/USD is trading at 1.0799, up 0.61%. The new Truss government has started off on the left foot, sending the pound to a record low in the process. The trouble began on Friday, as Chancellor Kwarteng's mini-budget promised tax cuts, despite soaring inflation which is hovering around 10%. The mini-budget was widely panned and the pound sank like a stone on Friday, falling a stunning 3.6%. The pound lost another 1.5% on Monday and dropped to a record low of 1.0359. The scathing criticism was not only domestic. The IMF has joined the chorus of boos and attacked the government's fiscal plans, going as far as calling on the UK to "re-evaluate" its tax cuts. Moody's warned that the plan could jeopardize the UK's credit rating. With the new government's credibility seriously undermined, it's no surprise that the pound is taking it on the chin. In a dramatic move, the Bank of England has stepped in order to avoid a possible crash in the bond market. There had been speculation that the BoE might deliver an emergency rate hike in order to prop up confidence and the ailing pound. Instead, the BoE said it would unlimited purchases of government bonds of 20 years or longer. This pushed 30-year bonds sharply lower after they had climbed to 24-year high, and the pound has moved higher. In the US, ten-year Treasury yields pushed above 4.00% earlier today, for the first time since 2008. The markets are showing a healthy respect for Fed hawkishness, even after inflation weakened in the past two inflation reports. There is some optimism that the current rate-hike cycle is reaching its end, with Fed member Evans stating that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of tightening at some point. For now, the US dollar has momentum, driven by an aggressive Fed and weak risk appetite due to worrisome developments in the Ukraine war, including the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines and Russia's plan to annex parts of Ukraine. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.0742, followed by resistance at 1.1052 There is support at 1.0644 and 1.0431
by OANDA
EUR/USD falls to new 20-year lowThe euro is in negative territory today, after posting six straight days of losses. EUR/USD is trading at 0.9553 in Europe, down 0.41%. September can't end fast enough for the euro, which has declined a massive 4.8% against the dollar. Earlier today, EUR/USD fell to 0.9536, its lowest level since June 2002. With the war in Ukraine escalating and Nord Stream reporting that its pipeline was deliberately damaged, it's hard to be optimistic about the euro's outlook. The sham referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine have ended and predictably, the vote to join Russia was close to 100%. Moscow is expected to declare on Friday that the territories are being annexed to the Russian Federation, sparking fears that Russia could resort to nuclear weapons to defend what it claims is Russian territory. There was a further escalation in the Ukraine war last week, as explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines are suspected to have been sabotaged. Nord Stream 2 has been shelved and Nord Stream 1 has been shut down for weeks, and any faint hopes that Russia might renew gas exports through Nord Stream have been dashed. European natural gas prices have jumped in response to the news. The US dollar continues to rally, and 10-year Treasury yields pushed above 4.00% earlier today, for the first time since 2008. The markets are showing a healthy respect for Fed hawkishness, even after inflation weakened in the past two inflation reports. There is some optimism that the current rate-tightening cycle is reaching its end, with Fed member Evans stating that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of tightening at some point. For now, the US dollar has momentum, driven by an aggressive Fed and weak risk appetite. EUR/USD is testing support at 0.9554. Next, there is support at 0.9419 There is resistance at 0.9640 and 0.9711
by OANDA
The strong rebounce of bitcoinThis should be the strongest and final rebound of bitcoin as it going further down. My prediction will be 16k before the bottom is really bottom. We already hit 18k, and it immediately rebound to 19k, which apparently is a cat market - dead cat bounce. Still the economy is not stable:- 1. The Ukraine war is escalating or there are no way out still, the USA still sponsoring Ukraine with millions of support. And Russia had determine to turn off the gas pipelines. 2. The China lock down or so call communism close down policy. Is rather fishy and insane or not making any sense. To just selfishly contain economy within China and remain exporting goods to outside. This mean that, they can make your money and you can not even make theirs. 3. The economy of whole world is frozen by covid-19 for 2 years and just seeing it start to melt. The melting process take longer than expected. People do not want to travel due to safety or rigid process. And yet some country do not want you to visit them. It's just not going back to pre-covid era.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by silvermerlion
The TRUMP Inflection LineUS markets are closed today so I thought I would slide on over to the German index and give it the 1.618 treatment. I was not disappointed. The 1.618 is the hallmark retracement of my favourite pattern, the Head and Shoulders. Why? Because it’s usually the most accurate of all reversal patterns both bullish and bearish. These particular 1.61.8 retracements are special interest to me because of the line in the sand that was drawn by the US president Donald Trump back in 2018. This marked a series of retracements from head and shoulder structures that are still playing out today. To start, I’ll go back to the 2018 UN meeting where President Trump warned Germany and UN leaders that they are becoming dependant on Russia for energy. Enter the first 1.618 bear Head and shoulder The bottom of 2018/2019 bear market also left a 1.618 retracement via a bullish H&S pattern with a key support level you see the 2022 markets as a major resistance level. In this retracement we see Trump was back at UN right at the test of the neckline which began the retracement to the 2018 bottom. Notice how the target for the 1.618 was reached at the same line that Russia invaded Ukraine. 🤔 Moving along. A less significant, but still relevant 1.618 played out in the shoulder that marked the first gap down of the covid crash in 2020 and connects with other smaller 1.618. and who’s neckline also marks the 50% retracement of the 2020-21 bull market rally. It also marks Trumps 2nd speech at UN and the Ukraine Documents. Next Exhibit Please! Now, even Covid bottom is now undressing its role in the 1.618 retracements with an inverted head and shoulder that marks the bottom of the covid recession. And again we see the significant strong resistance and ultimately the top of the 1.618 retracements. Zooming in, we see the other shoulder of the covid Inv H&S was a 1.618 retracement as governments scrambled to deal with covid, russia aggression and looming supply chain issues and energy problems. Now is when things start to correlate with the other 1.618 retracements. A top in global markets is formed with a rather volatile h&S at the top, but plays through exactly as Russia Invades Ukraine and is also the 2018 Bottoms 1.618! And Finally the Inverse H&S forming now that I present in this idea. From a macro perspective I don’t see this last inverted H&S validating. This setup would require positive news from US markets on inflation and to complete would mean an end to Russian aggression or sanctions on oil and gas and advert a humanitarian disaster this winter. Failure to validate this head and shoulders would lead the economy deeper into a recession and become just a shoulder for the next inverse 1.618. If it invalidates, then see S&P 500 1337 MAGA STRUCTURE that will instead follow through. Thanks for Reading. Please boost if you enjoy the article and follow @SPYvsGME for more market perspective from the >>GRID<<
XETR:DAX
by SPYvsGME
2
Euro inflation rises, but euro yawnsThe euro continues to have a calm week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is showing little movement as it trades a whisker above the parity line. Inflation in the eurozone continues to move higher. In August, CPI rose to 9.1%, up from the July gain of 8.9%, which was a record high. Core inflation climbed to 4.3%, up from 4.0%. With both the headline and core readings exceeding the forecast of 9.0% and 4.1%, respectively, there will be additional pressure on the ECB to tighten policy more at an accelerated pace. The central bank has been slow to shift its accommodative policy, which was in place for years in order to support the eurozone economy. The ECB now finds itself playing catch-up with inflation, and is also far behind in the tightening cycle compared to other major central banks, with a benchmark rate of just 0.50%. Inflationary pressures remain broad-based, which means inflation is well-supported and unlikely to decline anytime soon. The eurozone inflation report comes just a day after Germany, the largest economy in the bloc, reported that August inflation jumped to 7.9%, up from 7.5% in July and nudging above the forecast of 7.8%. The central bank meets next on September 8th, and there is a strong possibility that the ECB could come out with guns blazing and deliver a super-size 75 basis point increase. A potential energy crisis in Europe continues to hover like a dark cloud, and the uncertainty over whether Moscow will weaponise energy exports remains a massive concern. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline has been shuttered for a scheduled three-day maintenance, but there are fears that Russia will find some excuse and not renew gas flows on Saturday. Any disruptions would likely push European gas prices even higher. In the meantime, the waiting game is on, with Western Europe on edge while it anxiously waits for the gas taps to be turned back on. EUR/USD has support at 0.9985 and 0.9880 1.0068 is a weak resistance line, followed by 1.0173
by OANDA
The Price of Freedom: NS2 pipeline cf German base energy pricesThe Nord Stream 2 runs through the Baltic Sea from the St Petersburg region (Russia) to Baltic Coast in north-east Germany. It can transport 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year from Russia to Germany, enough to power 26 million homes for a year. Europe's total consumption of Russian gas per year is approximately 200 billion cubic metres per year, which accounts for about 40% to 50% of Europe's energy consumption. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline completely bypasses Ukraine. Prior to the war Ukraine was earning approximately $1.2 billion per year in gas transit fees from Russia to the EU through its territory. Construction of the pipeline began in 2016. In Jan 2019 US ambassador to Germany threatens sanctions on companies participating in Nordstream 2 construction. In December 2019 these sanctions are passed into law. Merkle labels these sanctions when they passed as US interference in EU internal affairs. July 2020 NY Times article provides a good explanation of the tensions between the USA and Germany over the opening of the Nordstream 2 pipeline : www.nytimes.com Pipeline construction was completed in September 2021, but Germany did not approve gas to start flowing. In the same month, NATO and Ukraine conduct joint military exercises. In December 2021 Russia threatens military action in Ukraine. Things escalated, as we all now know. Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late Feb 2022, Germany (finally) suspends the Nordsteram 2 pipeline. German energy base energy prices per megawatt hour have gone from 50 euro since the announcement of US sanctions on Nordstream 2 in 2019, to 150 euro in September 2021 when Ukraine and Nato conducted joint military exercises, to 300 euro after Germany announces in August in has no plans to open Nordstream 2. Contract at the time of this writing is at 420 euro, up 8x since the US announced sanctions on Nordstream 2 in Dec 2019. In April 2022 when it became clear to me that NATO was willing to put its populations under extreme energy duress and significant security duress to retaliate against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I placed bets on unlisted US defense companies. In retrospect, having caught up on the history of the Nordstream 2 pipeline conflict, with the US and Ukraine aligned against Russia and Germany caught in the middle, as well as the sheer scale of the EU's dependence on Russian gas, the cleaner bet would have been on German base energy prices. The 12 month energy contract is actually trading at 1,000 euro. I.e. the 12 month spot / futures basis is telling us that even though prices are up 8x from Dec 2019, this is about to get far far worse. The question now is how much pain can EU citizens bear before they say enough is enough and cut a deal with Russia. At the moment they are sustaining a huge amount of pain and and still holding up, they have probably surprised Russia (and themselves) with their willingness to bear the pain. However, winter is coming and it's not going to be pretty. It's possible the EU is willing to (or has no choice but to) completely obliterate its economy to wean itself off from Russian gas rather than cut a deal with Russia. If that's the case we can expect energy prices to remain high, perhaps even pump further At some point there will be enough incentive though for supply to flow from US, maybe Africa, and arrest the rise in prices. This may be coupled with US aid to Europe to cover their gas bill as European allies ask for help in continuing the economic war. It would be plausible for big aid to be forthcoming as it would essentially be taxpayer money that would essentially flow to the US energy producers, and so far the tax base in the U.S. seems supportive of continuing the war on Russia. Signs to look out for are signs that both EU and US electorates are tiring of the cost of waging this war. If these signs emerge as German baseline prices continue to rise, this might be a good time to place a short on energy prices. Any signs of Germany agreeing to start gas flows through Nordstream 2 might also be a good opportunity to place a short Of course, energy markets are highly efficient so my main concern with this strategy would be inside information or simply people closer to the national policy movements underway that might signal a fraying of resolve in maintaining the economic war on Russia, at least as it relates to energy.
NYMEX:DEB1!Short
by a_trader_anon
1