XAUUSD SHORT TO 1746As you guys saw from my previous analysis, I was short on Gold from 1791 & I am still holding onto those sells within the Gold Fund for my investors.
While on the 1 Hour TF, it might look like Gold is constantly rising, if you go onto a higher TF like 4HR/Daily, you'll see Gold momentum is slowing down & buyers are very sluggish. We have seen a 5 wave, bullish completion on Gold & I am still expecting a retracement from this area to the downside. I am already holding buys, so my sells going into a bit of drawdown won't effect me as I am hedged in both directions. Perfect risk management for my Gold Fund investors as we lose nothing📈
Drop a like if you agree with this analysis and follow for more Gold updates✅
Russia
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1747A possible shorting opportunity on Gold down towards our buying zone. On the smaller timeframe, Gold has completed a 5 wave move, so I am now expecting a pullback down towards 1746 in order for market to fill the imbalance.
A nice 500 PIPS (2.85%) possible gain from this sell opportunity.
Drop a like and follow if you agree, or do let me know what you think!
#BRENT crude oil - technical picture deterioratingAs we all know, Brent crude has been one of the strongest commodities for quite some time given all the supply issues from Russia/Ukraine and under investment. Oil has lost some critical technical levels losing both its horizontal support, rising channel as well as 200 day moving average. The market can be telling us two things, potentially, (1) there is some sort of resolution to the Russia/Ukraine embargo, or (2) Economic growth slows down as we enter recession, with demand destruction starting to take place
Next target is likely $86 which was an important level of resistance in prior years - and likely to become support should we drop further.
EUROPE is going to enter into recession soonThe closer the winter, the stronger Russia leverages against Europe become.
Main one being natural gas.
Europe imports 90% of it's gas and Russia was importing 40% of it. Prices were much cheaper than LNG since it was transferred through pipes.
Now, the biggest gas pipeline in Europe - Nord Stream is getting used by Russia as a weapon against European countries. By cutting supply to 20% of pipeline's power, Russia expects Europe to stop supporting Ukraine in it's attempt to defend the country. Surely, Russia plans to cut it completely in the near future when it will damage European economies the most.
Compare this year prices with 2021 and you will be terrified because it grew more than 10 times. And remember that during summer natural gas prices are the cheapest. As winter approaches and when Nord Stream will shut down completely we can easily double in price.
More than 25% of German businesses say they are considering temporary or complete shutdown. Already more than 8% of heavy industry in Germany were put on hold since factories stop being profitable because of increased manufacturing costs.
Bottom line: Fundamentally natural gas prices will grow and European economies will suffer.
By following fundamental analysis lets look at technical:
We updated historical highs, but that was false breakout. It's wise to look for continuation of bullish trend, that's why I draw 2 scenarios.
1. From current price we approach top of the false breakout and after some range push higher.
2. We will be in range for a couple days, using bottom trendline as support. Closer to the end of formation we will squeeze to the previous level and break through it.
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
EUR/USD shrugs as German confidence slipsThe euro is in positive territory at the start of the week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0245, up 0.30%.
The US dollar lost some of its lustre last week and the euro took advantage. EUR/USD posted its first winning week in a month and pulled some distance away from the parity line.
The euro has posted gains today but there was some alarming data out of Germany. Ifo Business Sentiment dropped to 88.6 in June, down sharply from 92.2 in May and shy of the consensus estimate of 90.2. The reading marked the lowest level in more than two years and was accompanied by an unusually grim message from the head of the Ifo Institute. Klaus Wohlrabe said that a recession in Germany was "knocking on the door" due to high energy prices and the possibility of gas shortages faced by Germany.
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline opened on Thursday as scheduled after being shut for maintenance but only at about 40% capacity, which was the case before it shut down. At that level, Germany may need to ration gas in order to reach its target of 90% storage capacity before winter sets in. The EU has suggested that member countries scale back their gas needs by 15% starting August 1st, but already some members are pushing back and demanding exemptions, making it uncertain if this voluntary plan will get off the ground.
The EU is clearly worried that Russia will weaponise its energy exports to Europe, which has implemented sanctions against Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine. With each member state having to worry about its own citizens having sufficient gas in the winter, we could see cracks appear in the EU's attempt to have a unified stance against Russia.
EUR/USD continues to test support at 1.0191. The next support level is 1.0105
There is resistance at 1.0304 and 1.0390
Updates of Options Strategy on Wheat FuturesCBOT:ZW1!
On June 15th, I issued an options trading strategy on CBOT Wheat Futures.
At the time, I expected wheat price to experience a very large move but was unsure of its direction. Consequently, I recommended a Long Strangle options strategy : Purchase both an out-of-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on September Wheat Futures. The original trading idea may be found here: .
Let’s review how this trade performed five weeks after its initiation:
Initial market conditions on June 14th:
• September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel.
• An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents.
• An OTM put with a $9.00 strike is quoted at 4.625 cents.
A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you could lose if wheat price did not break out the upper ceiling or fall through the lower floor set by the strikes.
At this writing on July 18th:
a) ZWU2 futures is quoted at $7.81/bushel, down $2.73 or -26%. Our expectation of big price move is proven to be correct .
b) Call options with $12.00 strike price is quoted at 10 cents, down 7 cents. Even though futures price declines, there is still time value in the OTC call options.
c) Put options with $9.00 strike is quoted at 85.5 cents, up 1749%. Due to the nonlinear nature of options pricing, our put is hugely profitable as it is now $1.19 deep in-the-money.
What can we do today? There are two options:
1) Sell both the call and put with offsetting trades. The call would realize a loss of $350, and the put has a profit of $4,043.75, making the combined total at $3,693.75. Taking the $1,081.25 premium we paid upfront as our cost base, gross profit will be $2,612.5 per contract, or +242% return in a five-week holding period.
2) Hold the positions . There are five more weeks left before the August 26th options expiration, and wheat price could make bigger move. For illustration purpose, let’s use today’s price as exercise price. The Call would expire worthless as it is out-of-the-money, and we lose the $850 initial investment. However, by exercising the put, we gain $1.19 (=9.00-7.81) per bushel, and $5,950 per contract. The combined gross profit will be $4,018.75, or +372% .
Why does this trade work? The key lies with a properly set-up strategy. It’s time to revisit our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model:
Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium
In February through May, the Russia-Ukraine conflict put a huge Crisis Premium on wheat price, driving it from $8 to $12-$13, before moving lower to around $10.
Since June, surging inflation, aggressive rate hikes, and recession fears overtake supply concerns as the main market driver. As fighting in Ukraine drags on, the impact from crisis diminishes, and Bearish Market Sentiment takes over. Commodities markets from energy, metals to agricultural products all suffered a huge loss.
Looking forward, I expect that Intrinsic Value, or traditional supply and demand factors, would come back as key market mover. The recently released World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture set a bearish tone in the grain market, sending wheat price to fall further.
For our CBOT Wheat Strangle options trade, I favor closing the positions now over holding it to expiration. Here is my reasoning:
In a classic economic supply and demand chart, fundamental factors move market price along the supply line and demand line. Price movement tends to be moderate and within a narrow band. This is what the Wheat price chart shows before February 24th.
On the contrary, crisis premium pushes either the supply line or the demand line to shift sideway, resulting in big price jumps. In the case of Wheat futures, investors are concerned that a loss of Russian wheat would reduce global supply by as much as 25%. Wheat price responded by a series of limit-up days and jumped 40% in two weeks. Note that daily price limit (up or down) on wheat futures is 70 cents per bushel.
In the absence of conflict escalation in Ukraine, volatility in wheat price would likely stay muted going forward. Additionally, time value, which is part of the options premium, will decrease quickly as contract expiration nears.
In the Black-Scholes Model, options price is positively correlated with volatility. Expected low volatility combined with diminishing time value will make it difficult for our Long Options to increase in value. This is my argument against holding on to the options.
As the likelihood of global recession grows, food crisis will stay on as a major global issue in 2022 and 2023. Famine could hit weaker economies. Agricultural commodities will be a good risk management tool to hedge the rising food cost.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Will the Russian Ruble keep appreciating vs other currencies?The truth is that the most likely answer is yes, the Ruble will keep going higher. Russia is a massive commodities exporter, from oil & gas, to wheat, and therefore there is a constant bid for its currency due to the natural demand for its resources. As Russia is hit by several sanctions, it is very hard for them to buy stuff from outside of Russia, and therefore even less money is flowing out of the country. The government has also imposed capital controls, and it is hard for its citizens to sell their currency for USD, EUR etc.
The Central bank also raised rates from 5% in 2021 up to 20% post invasion, and have now dropped rates to 11%. Even though that's still a pretty high number and inflation in Russia is much higher than 11%, however this rate is still much higher than what many countries are offering. A 9% cut in interest rates couldn't even bring the currency down, a major sign of strength.
However in my opinion the most important aspect is that Russia has very low debt and could take the hit, while most other countries can't raise rates without breaking everything. They also have significant amounts of Gold, and what remains to be seen is what happens to their FX reserves that have been frozen. If they totally lose these reserves then the currency could suffer, but for now it is possible that they get their reserves back. Forcing 'hostile' countries to pay them in Rubles isn't as important as people think, as they could have accepted payments in Euros for example, and then used that money to buy their own currency. This was mostly a power play and a statement that energy sanctions are futile.
Now in terms of TA, the Ruble got insanely oversold after having a huge breakdown (USDRUB breaking out), but when the dust settled, many people who were short were forced to cover as their brokers wouldn't allow them to trade the Ruble. Many accounts were probably blown up due to the whole sanctions, capital controls and so on, that made it very hard for traders to go long or short. As USDRUB started coming down, longs were getting crushed and everyone had to start closing their positions. The market became illiquid and unstable, and mainly damaged those betting against the Ruble.
At the moment USDRUB has gotten incredibly oversold, as it broke the S3 Yearly Pivot, as well as the S3 Monthly Pivot, and broke the 2020 Covid low, as well as the 2017-2018 lows. The bounce is mostly driven by technical reasons (taking out stops & being oversold), as well as the 3rd rate cut. However in terms of TA, it looks pretty likely that it is heading for 36$. The whole reversal from 160 all the way down here is still very bearish and an indication that lower prices are coming. The rejection at the diagonal resistance is pretty bearish, and the entire 2013-2015 rally / breakout could be reversed. In the short term the market could trade between 55 & 70, but in the long term it is going to go lower.
NAS100 [US100] Daily Outlook | July 18Long Term Outlook:
Looking at NAS100 Daily TF, the asset remains bearish until 12949.00 level is broken. I see a trend-line joining 13500, 12949 and 12175 indicating that price may yet see 11163 area with enough volume .
Short Term Outlook:
a. 1HR break and closure above 12120 zone could drive price to test 12305 and subsequently 12572 zones.
b. On the other hand, the break and closure of 1HR price bar below 12012 zone, we may yet see a dip down to 11777 zone with big emphasis around 11926.89 area
Let me know what you think in the comment section.
NOTE: I trade NAS100 and EURUSD live from Mon-Fri at 8:45 AM EST/ 4:45 PM GST
Kindly check my profile for the streaming information.
Join the winning team!
-Kings
$CRK oil hedge 2.0 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Recap: Our last time entering this thing was at $20 on 6/9/22! We carefully avoided taking a big hit on this trade by exiting on 6/15/22 at $17.42 per share.
Today my team entered oil company Comstock $CRK again, but this time dirt cheap at $12 per share. Take profit is unknown but the set-up looks extremely bullish!
OUR ENTRY: $12
STOP LOSS: $11
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
EURUSD Daily Outlook | July 15Daily Outlook:
Previous day's bar eventually broke 0.99999 level and took price all the way down to 0.99528. As long as am concerned, the daily TF is showing more bearish signs where we expect wick fill by today's daily candle. I say that price may kiss 0.99500 today.
Intraday Outlook:
1. There seems to be a range between 1.00476 and 0.99794 zones where we want to see 1 HR break and closure above 1.00476 before we can open buy positions with targets as 1.00844 (37 pips) and 1.01193 (72 pips).
2. The break of 1.00134 is a good signs of bearish presence but must be confirmed by allowing 1HR price bar to close below the zone before we can comfortably take any sell position. Our target for bearish positions are gonna be 0.99794 (34 pips) and 0.99528 (60 pips)
Let me know what you think in the comment section.
NOTE: I trade NAS100 and EURUSD live from Mon-Fri at 8:45 AM EST/ 4:45 PM GST
I closed 2 trades with massive profits ( NAS100 sell and EURUSD sell) during my live streaming yesterday, and all my live audience took advantage of this opportunity to secure good wins.
Kindly see my previous streaming video for educational purposes.
Join the winning team!
-Kings
Bitcoin Bear Targets in case Ukraine x Russia tensions riseUntil the rising of the tensions between Ukraine and Russia, I was bullish about Bitcoin because of the fundamentals and on chain analysis. Now that my hopes on a diplomatic solution fades as war is in fact happening, my vision tends to change to a more bearish scenario. So I made a very simple analysis based on price levels and volume and the head and shoulders figure that was upsetting me and a lot of people on the market.
Euro slide continuesThe month of July has been an unmitigated disaster for the euro - with only three trading sessions in the books, EUR/USD has declined a staggering 2.73%. Earlier in the day, the euro dropped to 1.0186, its lowest level since December 2002. The euro appears headed for parity with the US dollar, a psychologically significant level.
The economic outlook in the eurozone is not an encouraging one. Inflation surged to 8.1% in May, surpassing the April record of 7.4%. A peak in inflation remains elusive, and the ECB is way behind the inflation curve - the central bank hasn't raised interest rates yet, which are in negative territory. Even so, a lukewarm eurozone economy means that raising rates poses the risk of a recession. The energy situation has been deteriorating, as sanctions against Russia have led to counter moves in which Moscow has reduced its gas exports to Europe, which could result in an energy shortage this winter. If Russia reduces oil or gas exports to Europe, prices will soar and this could cause a severe economic downturn.
A strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers on Tuesday threatened to exacerbate the situation. The Norwegian government has stepped in and ended the strike, but investors remain nervous as the eurozone's energy situation could become precarious.
Today's data out of the eurozone showed some improvement but did little to raise risk sentiment. Germany's Factory Orders rose 0.1% in May, up from -1.6% in April but still a negligible gain. It was a similar story for eurozone retail sales, which came in at 0.2% in May after a -1.4% read in April. On Thursday, Germany releases Industrial Production for May, which is expected to slow to 0.7%, down from 0.4%.
EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0124. Below, there is support at 1.0075
There is resistance at 1.0221 and 1.0324
MOS Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% MOS, 90% Cash. * Bad Vlad and Russian fertilizer producers are the top benefiters of fertilizer prices testing ATHs set during the previous recession in 2008 (yes I just implied that we are currently in a recession, it will become clearer soon with increased layoffs and earnings downturns). Grain, oil and fertilizer trade routes from Russia (and through Ukraine) continue to be disrupted by a mixture of sanctions and war as the global economic order continues to reorganize; Russia continues to find "friendly" trade partners that are willing to pay these higher prices. The rest of the world is now reeling from the effect this is having on gas/diesel prices because the transport industry (which is already seeing a labor shortage) is having to pass these prices on to the producers who pass this on to this distributors who pass this on to consumers -- who are currently experiencing reduced purchasing power and insufficient wage growth. This and China's "Zero Covid Policy" have exacerbated the rise in global growth destruction starting in 2019 (Covid-19 pandemic). Additionally, economies are starting to see contraction and, aside from Japan and Russia, central banks have been increasingly hawkish and committed to reducing global inflation by helping to weaken demand through monetary policy. All that said, we're now starting to see the already strange combo of low unemployment and labor shortages turn into lay-offs. Though unclear as to whether or not this will positively influence the driver workforce, it's hard to see reduced demand lead to more truck drivers unless the freight companies want to pay them more. Should be interestingly sad to see stockpiles of grain, oil and fertilizer combined with disproportionately high prices.* Price is currently testing the descending trendline from 04/18/22 as support at ~$49.50 and is on the verge of testing the 200 MA at ~$48.20 as support for the first time since December 2021. Volume remains Moderate (High) and is currently on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $59.13, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 34 after being rejected by 40.33 resistance, the next support is at 25.31. Stochastic is currently regressing to a bearish crossover at 16, the next support is max bottom and resistance at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -3 with no signs of trough formation; if it loses -2.52 support it will likely test -4.88 minor support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 26 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest 55.79 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally test the 200 MA at ~$48.20 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45) for the first time since January 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $51.52.
The New Base Level in the VIX IndexThe VIX index is the Chicago Board Option Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market’s expected price variance of S&P 500 stocks. The S&P 500 is the most diversified of the leading stock market indices.
Higher base levels in the stock market’s volatility index
A correlation with the bond market
Markets across all asset classes face many issues in 2022
As market participants head for the sidelines, volatility increases
The buy zone for the VIX is the 20-25 level
Market volatility comes in two forms, historical and implied. Historical volatility measures a market’s past price variance, while implied volatility is the consensus perception of the future price variance. The primary determinate of call and put options is implied volatility. Options prices rise when implied volatility increases and falls when the measure declines. Options are price insurance, and market participants tend to flock to the options market during bearish periods. Therefore, implied volatility tends to rise during downside corrections. In 2022, the S&P 500 has been trending lower, and volatility has increased from the levels seen in 2021. Meanwhile, the VIX index has been trending higher since reaching a low of 8.56 in November 2017.
Higher base levels in the stock market’s volatility index
The VIX index has been trending higher over the past five years, with two significant upside spikes.
The chart highlights the spikes to 50.30 in February 2018 and 85.47 in March 2020 when the global pandemic gripped the stock market. Meanwhile, the base level for the VIX was around the 10 level from April 2018 through early 2020. In 2020 and 2021, the base rose to the 15 level, and the bottom for the VIX increased to the 20 level in 2022. In the VIX, upside price spikes tend to signal the kind of capitulation that leads to stock market bottoms. While all the leading stock market indices have been declining in 2022, the price action in the volatility index has yet to signal stocks are anywhere near the bottom.
A correlation with the bond market
Stocks and bonds compete for capital flows. As interest rates rise, money tends to flow from equities to fixed-income securities. Therefore, a falling bond market is bearish for stocks.
The trend of higher lows in the VIX is a bearish sign for stocks and bonds. In 2022, the stock market has traded like a whack-a-mole game. While making lower highs and lower lows, declines have led to rip-your-face-off rallies, confusing market participants. However, the overall bearish trends in stocks and bonds and bullish trend in the VIX index is a sign that the bear continues to dominate the markets.
Markets across all asset classes face many issues in 2022
Higher interest rates are bearish for the stock market and bullish for the volatility index. However, the markets face a lot more than higher interest rates in 2022:
The war in Ukraine creates a unique side of problems for all markets. Rising energy and food prices have pushed inflation to a four-decade high, translating to pressure on stocks and bonds. The Fed’s interest rate policies remain far behind the inflationary curve, keeping real interest rates in negative territory and fueling even more inflation.
The bifurcation between the world’s nuclear powers creates trade issues that distort prices, creating raw material shortages in some regions and gluts in others. The tensions interfere with the flow of goods worldwide.
The mid-term US elections in November will determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The election will be a barometer of support for the Biden administration. Polls point to losses for the ruling party, but the electorate remains divided, with emotions high on both sides. Voters tend to vote with their pocketbooks, but there is much at stake in November.
US energy policy continues to address climate change by favoring alternative and renewable fuels and inhibiting the production and consumption of fossil fuels. The President recently said the pain of higher gasoline and fuel prices is necessary for consumers to shift to a greener path. Opponents contend that the energy shift will take decades, while supporters argue that hydrocarbons continue to power the world. The election will go a long way to deciding if the US continues its green route or shifts back to a drill-baby-drill and frack-baby-frack road to energy independence.
Russia and Ukraine export one-third of the world’s annual wheat supplies and a significant amount of corn and other agricultural products as they are Europe’s breadbasket. Higher food prices and scarce availabilities over the coming months and years could spark a period of upheaval with hungry people in less developed countries dependent on Russia and Ukraine facing famine.
These issues and the unknown are fueling uncertainty in markets across all asset classes with no solutions on the immediate horizon.
Uncertainty is the stock market’s worst enemy. While the Fed attempts to address inflation with interest rate hikes, supply-side economic issues could mean the central bank is fighting an inflationary blaze with a water gun that will only hasten a recession or worse.
As market participants head for the sidelines, volatility increases
Market participants are nervous in June 2022. The price for all goods and services continues to increase as money’s purchasing power declines. Moreover, after the stock market gains over the past two years, monthly IRA and investment account statements are eroding at an accelerated pace. As of June 16, the tech-heavy NASDAQ had lost nearly one-third of its value from the late 2021 high. The S&P 500 was down more than 22.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell around 17.5%. Consumer confidence has plunged, and a general disgust and malaise are settling over markets across all asset classes. Rapidly rising interest rates are making new home purchases prohibitive, even if prices come down.
Meanwhile, we are heading into the peak summer months with the stock market in whack-a-mole mode. The odds favor a retreat to the sidelines for many market participants over the coming weeks and months. Less participation causes volumes to decline, and in the current environment, will likely increase price volatility. As many traders, speculators, and investors turn off their screens and head off on vacation, bids to buy are likely to disappear during selloffs, and offers to sell will evaporate during recoveries, making rip-you-face-off rallies even more dangerous. Higher volatility will only add to frustrations over the summer of 2022.
The buy zone for the VIX is the 20-25 level
The VIX was over the 33 level on June 16, but it fell as low as 23.74 in early June. The trend of higher base levels for the volatility index increases the odds of success for purchasing the VIX futures or VIX-related products on dips to the 20-25 area.
The VIX is a trading, not an investment product. Approach the VIX with a solid risk-reward plan and stick to the program. Look for better than even odds opportunities, take small losses at risk levels, and look to increase profit horizons when the volatility index rises. When adjusting profit targets, remember to raise the risk points to levels that protect profits and capital.
The trend in the VIX is higher, and the potential for a substantial upside price spike is rising. Trading the volatility index from the long side could be the optimal approach over the coming weeks and months as the market faces significant issues and liquidity is declining.
Fasten your seatbelts as the whack-a-mole stock market could experience head-spinning moves over the coming weeks and months.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.