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Euro slide continuesThe month of July has been an unmitigated disaster for the euro - with only three trading sessions in the books, EUR/USD has declined a staggering 2.73%. Earlier in the day, the euro dropped to 1.0186, its lowest level since December 2002. The euro appears headed for parity with the US dollar, a psychologically significant level. The economic outlook in the eurozone is not an encouraging one. Inflation surged to 8.1% in May, surpassing the April record of 7.4%. A peak in inflation remains elusive, and the ECB is way behind the inflation curve - the central bank hasn't raised interest rates yet, which are in negative territory. Even so, a lukewarm eurozone economy means that raising rates poses the risk of a recession. The energy situation has been deteriorating, as sanctions against Russia have led to counter moves in which Moscow has reduced its gas exports to Europe, which could result in an energy shortage this winter. If Russia reduces oil or gas exports to Europe, prices will soar and this could cause a severe economic downturn. A strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers on Tuesday threatened to exacerbate the situation. The Norwegian government has stepped in and ended the strike, but investors remain nervous as the eurozone's energy situation could become precarious. Today's data out of the eurozone showed some improvement but did little to raise risk sentiment. Germany's Factory Orders rose 0.1% in May, up from -1.6% in April but still a negligible gain. It was a similar story for eurozone retail sales, which came in at 0.2% in May after a -1.4% read in April. On Thursday, Germany releases Industrial Production for May, which is expected to slow to 0.7%, down from 0.4%. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0124. Below, there is support at 1.0075 There is resistance at 1.0221 and 1.0324
by OANDA
MOS Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% MOS, 90% Cash. * Bad Vlad and Russian fertilizer producers are the top benefiters of fertilizer prices testing ATHs set during the previous recession in 2008 (yes I just implied that we are currently in a recession, it will become clearer soon with increased layoffs and earnings downturns). Grain, oil and fertilizer trade routes from Russia (and through Ukraine) continue to be disrupted by a mixture of sanctions and war as the global economic order continues to reorganize; Russia continues to find "friendly" trade partners that are willing to pay these higher prices. The rest of the world is now reeling from the effect this is having on gas/diesel prices because the transport industry (which is already seeing a labor shortage) is having to pass these prices on to the producers who pass this on to this distributors who pass this on to consumers -- who are currently experiencing reduced purchasing power and insufficient wage growth. This and China's "Zero Covid Policy" have exacerbated the rise in global growth destruction starting in 2019 (Covid-19 pandemic). Additionally, economies are starting to see contraction and, aside from Japan and Russia, central banks have been increasingly hawkish and committed to reducing global inflation by helping to weaken demand through monetary policy. All that said, we're now starting to see the already strange combo of low unemployment and labor shortages turn into lay-offs. Though unclear as to whether or not this will positively influence the driver workforce, it's hard to see reduced demand lead to more truck drivers unless the freight companies want to pay them more. Should be interestingly sad to see stockpiles of grain, oil and fertilizer combined with disproportionately high prices.* Price is currently testing the descending trendline from 04/18/22 as support at ~$49.50 and is on the verge of testing the 200 MA at ~$48.20 as support for the first time since December 2021. Volume remains Moderate (High) and is currently on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $59.13, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 34 after being rejected by 40.33 resistance, the next support is at 25.31. Stochastic is currently regressing to a bearish crossover at 16, the next support is max bottom and resistance at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -3 with no signs of trough formation; if it loses -2.52 support it will likely test -4.88 minor support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 26 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest 55.79 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally test the 200 MA at ~$48.20 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45) for the first time since January 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $51.52.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
The New Base Level in the VIX IndexThe VIX index is the Chicago Board Option Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market’s expected price variance of S&P 500 stocks. The S&P 500 is the most diversified of the leading stock market indices. Higher base levels in the stock market’s volatility index A correlation with the bond market Markets across all asset classes face many issues in 2022 As market participants head for the sidelines, volatility increases The buy zone for the VIX is the 20-25 level Market volatility comes in two forms, historical and implied. Historical volatility measures a market’s past price variance, while implied volatility is the consensus perception of the future price variance. The primary determinate of call and put options is implied volatility. Options prices rise when implied volatility increases and falls when the measure declines. Options are price insurance, and market participants tend to flock to the options market during bearish periods. Therefore, implied volatility tends to rise during downside corrections. In 2022, the S&P 500 has been trending lower, and volatility has increased from the levels seen in 2021. Meanwhile, the VIX index has been trending higher since reaching a low of 8.56 in November 2017. Higher base levels in the stock market’s volatility index The VIX index has been trending higher over the past five years, with two significant upside spikes. The chart highlights the spikes to 50.30 in February 2018 and 85.47 in March 2020 when the global pandemic gripped the stock market. Meanwhile, the base level for the VIX was around the 10 level from April 2018 through early 2020. In 2020 and 2021, the base rose to the 15 level, and the bottom for the VIX increased to the 20 level in 2022. In the VIX, upside price spikes tend to signal the kind of capitulation that leads to stock market bottoms. While all the leading stock market indices have been declining in 2022, the price action in the volatility index has yet to signal stocks are anywhere near the bottom. A correlation with the bond market Stocks and bonds compete for capital flows. As interest rates rise, money tends to flow from equities to fixed-income securities. Therefore, a falling bond market is bearish for stocks. The trend of higher lows in the VIX is a bearish sign for stocks and bonds. In 2022, the stock market has traded like a whack-a-mole game. While making lower highs and lower lows, declines have led to rip-your-face-off rallies, confusing market participants. However, the overall bearish trends in stocks and bonds and bullish trend in the VIX index is a sign that the bear continues to dominate the markets. Markets across all asset classes face many issues in 2022 Higher interest rates are bearish for the stock market and bullish for the volatility index. However, the markets face a lot more than higher interest rates in 2022: The war in Ukraine creates a unique side of problems for all markets. Rising energy and food prices have pushed inflation to a four-decade high, translating to pressure on stocks and bonds. The Fed’s interest rate policies remain far behind the inflationary curve, keeping real interest rates in negative territory and fueling even more inflation. The bifurcation between the world’s nuclear powers creates trade issues that distort prices, creating raw material shortages in some regions and gluts in others. The tensions interfere with the flow of goods worldwide. The mid-term US elections in November will determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The election will be a barometer of support for the Biden administration. Polls point to losses for the ruling party, but the electorate remains divided, with emotions high on both sides. Voters tend to vote with their pocketbooks, but there is much at stake in November. US energy policy continues to address climate change by favoring alternative and renewable fuels and inhibiting the production and consumption of fossil fuels. The President recently said the pain of higher gasoline and fuel prices is necessary for consumers to shift to a greener path. Opponents contend that the energy shift will take decades, while supporters argue that hydrocarbons continue to power the world. The election will go a long way to deciding if the US continues its green route or shifts back to a drill-baby-drill and frack-baby-frack road to energy independence. Russia and Ukraine export one-third of the world’s annual wheat supplies and a significant amount of corn and other agricultural products as they are Europe’s breadbasket. Higher food prices and scarce availabilities over the coming months and years could spark a period of upheaval with hungry people in less developed countries dependent on Russia and Ukraine facing famine. These issues and the unknown are fueling uncertainty in markets across all asset classes with no solutions on the immediate horizon. Uncertainty is the stock market’s worst enemy. While the Fed attempts to address inflation with interest rate hikes, supply-side economic issues could mean the central bank is fighting an inflationary blaze with a water gun that will only hasten a recession or worse. As market participants head for the sidelines, volatility increases Market participants are nervous in June 2022. The price for all goods and services continues to increase as money’s purchasing power declines. Moreover, after the stock market gains over the past two years, monthly IRA and investment account statements are eroding at an accelerated pace. As of June 16, the tech-heavy NASDAQ had lost nearly one-third of its value from the late 2021 high. The S&P 500 was down more than 22.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell around 17.5%. Consumer confidence has plunged, and a general disgust and malaise are settling over markets across all asset classes. Rapidly rising interest rates are making new home purchases prohibitive, even if prices come down. Meanwhile, we are heading into the peak summer months with the stock market in whack-a-mole mode. The odds favor a retreat to the sidelines for many market participants over the coming weeks and months. Less participation causes volumes to decline, and in the current environment, will likely increase price volatility. As many traders, speculators, and investors turn off their screens and head off on vacation, bids to buy are likely to disappear during selloffs, and offers to sell will evaporate during recoveries, making rip-you-face-off rallies even more dangerous. Higher volatility will only add to frustrations over the summer of 2022. The buy zone for the VIX is the 20-25 level The VIX was over the 33 level on June 16, but it fell as low as 23.74 in early June. The trend of higher base levels for the volatility index increases the odds of success for purchasing the VIX futures or VIX-related products on dips to the 20-25 area. The VIX is a trading, not an investment product. Approach the VIX with a solid risk-reward plan and stick to the program. Look for better than even odds opportunities, take small losses at risk levels, and look to increase profit horizons when the volatility index rises. When adjusting profit targets, remember to raise the risk points to levels that protect profits and capital. The trend in the VIX is higher, and the potential for a substantial upside price spike is rising. Trading the volatility index from the long side could be the optimal approach over the coming weeks and months as the market faces significant issues and liquidity is declining. Fasten your seatbelts as the whack-a-mole stock market could experience head-spinning moves over the coming weeks and months. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Andy_Hecht
1
GOLD - XAUUSD Hello traders? As I expect the dollar to fall this week, it is natural that gold, with its reverse movement with the dollar, will be an ideal rise, and the news supports its rise, as the G7 decides to ban the import of Russian gold to increase restrictions on Moscow with the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and • Britain, America, Japan and Canada ban the import of Russian gold. This is likely to open the week with a large gap for gold. As for the movement of gold this week, it will be positive to support the price's rise. . . Important rules: 1: Use a small lot 2: Don't be greedy 3: Stick to the goals 4: Don't add deals to losing trades 5: Stick to your stop loss Good Luck To Everyone .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by zaidhatem
2
Don't fear the capitulationINVESTMENT CONTEXT Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the key priority of the Fed is bringing down inflation, even while acknowledging that monetary policy can't address critical components like food and energy. Powell also a stated a recession is “certainly possible,” but not in the near term as the U.S. economy remains “in good shape.” Turkey's central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 14% on June 23, after it kept interest rates deeply below zero when adjusted for inflation. Norway's Norges Bank is instead set to hike its key rate 25bps to 0.75% Russia is facing three interest payment transfers totaling almost USD 400mln on June 23-24, but more pressing is a Sunday-night deadline on previous missed payments from late May. If the country fails to make those payment - ca. USD 100mln of bond coupons - it will effectively be declared in default Global bank Citi said the probability of a recession is now approaching 50%. The Bank expects 3% growth for the world economy this year and 2.8% in 2023 U.S. President Joe Biden called for a gasoline tax holiday, in an effort to relief households from pump gasoline prices, which briefly surpassed USD 5/gallon BTC trades have entered a dangerous (4) channel with trading range set between 19-21k as volumes fail to return to the blockchain space PROFZERO'S TAKE Value investing has been the key theme across Q1 and most part of Q2 this year, as investors unloaded Growth assets whose bulk of profits are located deep into the future, hence more exposed to higher interest/discount rates. That trend is set to reverse should a recession materialize. In particular, the undisputed champions of the past 150 days, namely Oil & Gas stocks, may steeply retrace as energy demand is threatened by slowing pace of industrial expansion, particularly in China. ProfZero warned back in April that the fat dividends paid this year may dwindle in 2023 as a protracted bear market triggers a recession; consistent with that, ProfZero maintains faith in Value-like Growth stocks, which enjoy state-of the-art balance sheets; top cash generation; and most importantly excel at intangible assets and services - natural price deflators for the economy ProfZero concurs with ProfThree thinking one step ahead - demand for industrial commodities is by definition pre-cyclical, and any slowdown in the near-term should be taken as an early sign of a cooling global economy. Seeing Brent crude tumbling more than 2% just on recession concerns confirms in ProfZero a sense of unease while looking forward on Energy equities; thinking even further though, the feeling of concern permeates the post-recession recovery, whose seeds do not look planted as of yet PROFTHREE'S TAKE One of the commodities to watch this week is iron ore, which has seen a slump to USD 110/ton on June 20 after topping USD 150/ton just two weeks ago. Profs’ eyes are obviously on China (ca. 60% of global steel output), where demand seems to be under threat following the news that steel mills are cutting production in response to weakening real estate sector. ProfThree contends iron ore quotes are finally close to their fundamentally justified levels after a long period of speculation-driven pricing. Yet, a further dramatic correction could still happen since the second half of this year is expected to bring an increase in steel output from China, compensating for the 10% y-o-y output reduction in Q1 due to the Olympics-related emission restrictions. ProfThree also sees infrastructure spending and targeted fiscal as well as monetary stimulus also to prove supportive to supply, thus boosting prices
by ProfZero
Jamie Dimon’s Hurricane and the Bond Market in Early JuneIn 2021, as the US central bank and the Secretary of the Treasury continued to call rising inflation a “transitory” and pandemic-inspired event, the bond market declined. Bonds watched prices rise while the economists were pouring over stale data. Meanwhile, the Fed and government planted inflationary seeds that sprouted during the second half of 2020, bloomed in 2021, and grew into wild weeds in 2022. The consumer and producer price data began to flash a warning sign in 2021, with the economic condition rising to the highest level in over four decades. The Fed and the Treasury finally woke up. While the Biden administration was already “woke,” the data awakened them to a point where late last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted “transitory” was a mistake. However, there was no admission and self-realization that monetary and fiscal policies created the inflation, and ignoring the warning signs only made it worse. A storm forecast from JP Morgan Chase’s leader Bonds are sitting near the lows The Fed’s FOMC meets on June 14 and 15 Higher rates are on the horizon Expect lots of volatility in markets The bond market was far ahead of the Fed and the Treasury, which should have been another warning sign. Consumer and producer prices have skyrocketed, and the central bank is using demand-side tools to address the economic fallout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation have only exacerbated the inflationary pressures, as they create supply-side issues making demand-side solutions impotent. The Biden administration blames the rise in energy prices on Russia, but they were already rising before the invasion and sanctions. The shift in US energy policy to a greener path is equally responsible for record-high gasoline and other fuel prices. At the end of 2021, a conventional 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage was just below the 3% level, and in less than six months, it rose to 5.5%. On a $300,000 loan, the move increases the monthly payment by $625, a significant rise. We are in the early days of an economic storm that began with the pandemic, continued with a lethargic Fed and government officials, and was exacerbated by the first major war in Europe since WW II. We have not seen the peak of the storm clouds gathering for more than two years. A storm forecast from JP Morgan Chase’s leader Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, called Bitcoin a “fraud.” A few short years ago, he said he would fire any trader “stupid” enough to trade cryptocurrencies on the bank’s behalf. As recently as late 2021, he said he believes Bitcoin is “worthless.” So far, he has been dead wrong on the asset class. The financial institution he heads replaced real estate with cryptocurrencies in late May, calling them a “preferred alternative asset.” In his latest comments on markets across all asset classes, Mr. Dimon issued a warning. Quantitative tightening that will ramp up to $95 billion in reduced Fed bond holdings and the Ukraine war led him to tell market participants, “You’d better brace yourself. JP Morgan is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.” He began by saying, “You know, I said there’s storm clouds, but I’m going to change it…it’s a hurricane.” Mr. Dimon believes QT and the war create substantial changes in the global flow of funds, with an uncertain impact. The leading US bank’s CEO is prepared for “at a minimum, huge volatility.” His forecast on cryptos aside, the warning is a call to action. There is still time to hedge portfolios and establish a plan for the coming storm. Volatility is a nightmare for passive inventors, but it creates a paradise of opportunities for nimble disciplined traders with their fingers on the pulse of markets. Bonds are sitting near the lows Quantitative tightening not only removes the put under the bond market that had supported government-issued fixed income instruments since early 2020, but it also puts downward pressure on bonds and upward pressure on interest rates further out along the yield curve. The long-term chart of the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures highlights the decline to the most recent low of 134-30, declining below the October 2018 136-16 low, and falling to the lowest level since July 2014. At the 135-20 level on June 10, the bonds are sitting close to an eight-year low, with the next technical support level at the December 2013 127-23 low. The Fed’s FOMC meets on June 14 and 15 The market expects the US Federal Reserve to increase the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points this week at the June meeting. The move will put the short-term rate at the 1.25% to 1.50% level. The Fed remains far behind the inflationary curve, with CPI and PPI data at an over four-decade high and coming in hotter each past month. While the central bank determines the short-term rate, the bond market has been screaming for the Fed to catch up, warning that inflationary pressures were mounting. The bottom fell out of the long bond futures in 2022 as the Fed began to tighten credit. However, the Fed’s economists will only put the short-term rate at 1.50%, with inflation running at many times that level. A 75 basis move to 1.75% would shock the market, which is not a path the Central Bank wants to follow. Higher rates are on the horizon The Fed may have awakened, realizing it must use monetary policy tools to address inflation, but the central bank remains groggy and slow to adjust rates to levels that would choke off rising prices. The economists do not have an easy job as they face supply-side economic problems created by the war in Ukraine. Had they been more agile in 2021 and nipped the rising inflation in the bud with a series of rate hikes, the US Fed would be better positioned to address what has become a no-win situation. The war has caused energy and food prices to soar with no central bank tools to manage the situation. Last week, gasoline rose to a new high, crude oil was over $120 per barrel, natural gas was over $9.65 per MMBtu, and grain prices remained at elevated levels. Rate hikes and lower bond prices are not likely to cause prices to fall as US energy policy, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation are supply-side issues that leave the central bank with few answers. Higher food and energy prices will keep the inflationary spiral going and will continue to push bond prices lower. Expect lots of volatility in markets The US and the world face an unprecedented period that began with the 2020 global pandemic. Artificially low interest rates and the government stimulus that addressed the pandemic were inflationary seeds. The pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks exacerbated the inflationary pressures. A shift in US energy policy increased OPEC and Russia’s pricing power in traditional energy markets. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has turbocharged the economic condition, making a solution challenging for the central bank. The current US Treasury Secretary, and former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, once said that monetary policy works together with the government’s fiscal policies. In the current environment, fiscal policy and the geopolitical landscape have become the most significant factors for rising inflation. Jamie Dimon is worried, and the head of the leading US financial institution is battening down the hatches on his balance sheet for a storm. Even though he was mistaken about cryptos, we should heed his warning and hope he is wrong. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes, which are highly uncertain in June 2022. Hedge those portfolios, and make sure you develop a plan for any risk positions. Expect the unexpected because 2022 is anything but a typical year in markets across all asset classes. Fasten your seatbelts for what could be a wild and turbulent ride over the coming months. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
12
GBPUSD LONG TO $1.29000Market structure for GBPUSD is currently at the start of a mid term, corrective phase. I am expecting this correction to take place within a A-B-C wave form. We have so far seen our first impulse move up which peaked at $1.66 marking the end of Wave A. We are now heading down roughly towards $1.237, where GBPUSD will find support hopefully and mark the end of Wave B. This will be a good position to take long positions, targeting $1.29. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors. Let me know if you agree with this analysis by dropping a like, or let me know what your bias is.
Long
by BA_Investments
BTC trying to bounce back but a hurricane set to cool optimismINVESTMENT CONTEXT While OPEC+ agreed to boost crude oil production in the coming months, in a gesture of reconciliation to the U.S., it still remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest producer, will agree to further isolate economically Russia BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, sees inflation to remain high for "years" due to the persisting effects of supply shocks After raising interest rates on April 29, the Fed is now about to kick-off the plan to shrink its USD 8.9tn balance sheet U.S. corporate profits fell the most in two years in Q1 2022; in the past year, earnings at 620 companies (of the 3,000 listed entities) fell short of interest payments — well above pre-pandemic 2019 levels President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces have seized a fifth of Ukraine, as the war passed the 100-day milestone Russia missed a USD 1.9mln payment, inching closer to a default that would trigger billions of CDS insurance contracts PROFZERO'S TAKE In a rollercoaster trading day, equities shook off pre-market losses to close deep into green territory. Traders are mildly attempting to restore risk-on attitude, even in the wake of Microsoft (MSFT) lowering fourth-quarter guidance for both revenue and earnings, citing unfavorable foreign exchange rates. ProfZero maintains its cool aplomb: while welcoming the prospective second straight green weekly candle, the overarching narrative still hasn't found sufficient grounding for a rebound to be called - war in Ukraine still has no clearly defined endgame, China has but started softly lifting COVID restrictions and this week showed inflation in Europe has not peaked yet. Hot summer ahead? Cruel summer, rather ProfZero is awaiting today's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data to see whether the real economy is keeping the upbeat tone much needed to absorb inflation; earlier indications point to slowing hiring activity coupled with companies vying for talent, even at considerably heftier wages. As shared on Step99 podcast on June 2, ProfZero reminds that the inflation equation simply can't be escaped: it's going to be paid either by companies in case they'll opt to internalize higher costs (including salaries), or by households through higher retail prices (United Nations, U.N., food price index surged 73.9% in May 2022 as compared to 2020) On June 2 Italy's natural gas distributor Snam announced it took over a 5-bcm strong regasification vessel from Golar LNG, as attempts to diversify energy supply in Europe gather pace. Other than the cost of energy itself, ProfZero is attentively looking at the freight market as a new source of possible bottlenecks: while pipelines from Russia allowed for seamless, low-cost primary transportation, the construction of brand-new seaborne supply chains will shift much market power into the hands of traders (Trafigura, Gunvor) and logistics middlemen. Speak of inflation - think of trading routes and supply-chain nodes, and you'll see who's behind it BTC testing again the high USD 30k bracket - or simply draining liquidity from altcoins? PROFONE's TAKE Following yesterday’s thoughts on lithium, ProfOne’s sees the very same pressures on nickel. The price of the metal used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries gained more than 50% since the beginning of 2022, including a one-day market rout on March 8 that sent prices up 250% intraday, and had the London Metals Exchange shut trading to contain credit risk . Some stainless steel factories in Europe already had to cut production (Acerinox) on stable supply concerns. Countries are looking for ways to substitute supplies from Russia, which produces a fifth of the world’s purest-grade nickel. Thus again on de-globalization talks: around 80% of the world’s nickel processing is based in China and 60% of the world’s nickel mines are Chinese owned. ProfZero and ProfOne are starting to wonder what actually was on the agenda at Davos just 10 days ago...
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Gold Remains a Compelling Investment on Price WeaknessGold is hard cash, and the precious yellow metal has a long history dating back thousands of years. Dollars, euros, yen, pounds, yuan, rubles, and all currencies floating around in the global financial system are babies compared to gold, the hard asset that holds value and symbolizes wealth. Gold holds the $1800 level after making a new high The bullish long-term trend remains firmly intact Russia backs the ruble with gold- Will China follow? Buying dips has been golden over the past two decades So many choices for gold investing and trading Countries, central banks, monetary authorities, and supranational institutions hold gold as a critical part of their foreign exchange reserves. They have added to reserves over the past decades, validating gold’s role in the global financial system. Aside from its monetary role, gold is a commodity and an ornamental metal that symbolizes love, wealth, and security. Gold has a myriad of industrial applications. Gold’s brand is unparalleled as it remains the ultimate form and symbol of money. Gold’s bull market began at the turn of this century, and it continues in May 2022. Gold’s appreciation is a commentary on fiat currency depreciation. Over the past two decades, the precious metal has respected technical levels and remains a compelling asset for investors and traders. Gold holds the $1800 level after making a new high On March 8, 2022, June COMEX gold futures rose to a new record peak of $2,082 per ounce. The price rallied on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but ran out of upside steam after making a marginal new high above the August 2020 peak. The chart of June gold futures shows the correction that took the futures to a low of $1,785 per ounce on May 16. Since then, the price bounced and was just above the $1850 level on May 27. While gold fell below the $1800 level, it only spent two days under the price that was the pivot point throughout most of 2021. The bullish long-term trend remains firmly intact Gold’s bullish trend began over twenty-two years ago, in 1999. The chart shows that the decline to $252.50 per ounce in August 1999 stands as gold’s bottom. Gold fell below the $300 level as the United Kingdom auctioned one-half of its gold reserves from 1999 to 2001. In early 2008, the precious metal rose above the 1980 record $875 high and probed above the $1,000 level for the first time. Gold has not ventured below $1,000 per ounce since October 2009. After reaching a record high of $1,911.60 in 2011, gold corrected and consolidated at above $1,000 through July 2020, when it made a higher high in August. The latest peak came in March 2022 as the long-term bull market trend remains firmly intact. Russia backs the ruble with gold- Will China follow? Central banks and governments hold gold as an integral part of foreign exchange holdings, validating gold’s role in the worldwide financial system. Over the past years, governments have been net buyers of gold, adding to reserves, with China and Russia the most high-profile buyers. Since the Chinese and Russians are significant gold producers and reserves are state secrets, it is challenging to quantify the increases in their reserves. According to the World Gold Council, in 2020, annual gold production was 3,478.1 tons. China produces 368.3 tons, and Russian output was 331.1 tons. Together, they produced over 20% of the world’s output, and the lion’s share likely went into reserves. China and Russia had also purchased gold on the international bullion market to add to their holdings. The geopolitical bifurcation that began on February 4, 2022, with a handshake between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin for “no-limits” cooperation, was a prelude to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It could also accelerate Chinese plans for reunification with Taiwan. The alliance pits China and Russia against the US and Europe, with other countries lining up on each side of the widening gulf between the nuclear powers. The US remains the world’s leading economy, but China is nipping on the US’s heels for the leadership role. The US dollar is the global reserve currency, but its role is slipping, and the geopolitical bifurcation threatens the dollar’s position. Sanctions led the Russians to declare that 5,000 roubles are exchangeable for one gram of gold, putting the Russian currency back on a gold standard. The chart of the currency relationship between the US dollar and the Russian rouble shows the plunge that took the rouble to $0.00757 in March after the invasion. The move to back the rouble with gold lifted the rouble to over the $0.0148 level on May 27. Meanwhile, the rouble moved to its highest level since 2018 against the US currency in May before correcting. If China follows the Russians and backs the yuan with gold, it will dramatically increase the precious metals’ role in the global financial system. Gold’s price would likely rise with the increasingly prominent role. Buying dips has been golden over the past two decades The long-term gold chart shows that buying gold on any price weakness has been the optimal approach to gold investing over the past two decades. Buying on rallies increased the odds of waiting out corrections and consolidation periods. The chart over the past three years shows that buying gold during periods of price weakness increases the odds of profitable trading and investing. So many choices for gold investing and trading The most direct route for owning gold is purchasing gold bars and coins. Gold is one of the few assets that provide a sense of security and wealth and is beautiful in its pure form. Gold futures are the next step on the golden pyramid as they provide a delivery mechanism. Unleveraged gold ETF products like GLD, IAU, and BAR hold the metal, creating a high correlation with the physical gold price. Gold mining shares provide leverage as the companies invest substantial capital in extracting gold from the earth’s crust. They extract lower grade ores as the prices rise, leading to greater profits in bull markets. Gold mining shares tend to outperform the metal’s price during rallies and underperform during corrections, providing leverage. However, gold mining shares do not suffer from the time decay that other leveraged tools often experience. Individual gold mining shares have idiosyncratic management risks and specific mining projects in producing countries worldwide. The GDX senior gold mining ETF and the GDXJ junior mining ETF products hold portfolios of senior and junior gold mining companies that diversify the idiosyncratic risks. The NUGT and JNUG products turbocharge the upside and downside returns of the GDX and GDXJ products, but they are only appropriate for short-term risk positions as NUGT and JNUG experience time decay. There are many other gold-related investment options, but the pure-play is the metal. Gold is a mainstay investment and trading asset that should be part of all portfolios. At the $1851.30 level on May 27, gold has corrected from the early March low but is on the way back up after probing below $1800 per ounce. Buying gold on dips continues to be the optimal trading and investing approach for the precious metal with a long history. Gold provides security and holds its value over time, and Russia’s return to a gold standard could boost its role in the global financial system over the coming years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
1
Oil spikes above 2-month high as EU bans Russian crudeWTI crude surpassed the resistance level of $115.7 per barrel (highs of March 24) and reached an intraday high of $118 per barrel before retreating to $116 per barrel as of this writing. Earlier today EU leaders agreed to ban about 90% of Russian seaborne oil by the end of 2022, renewing worries of a tighter global energy market. Germany and Poland decided to stop buying Russian crude through the Druzhba pipeline by the end of 2022, but Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia were granted an exemption owing to their reliance on Russian pipelined oil and to avoid a deal failure. Today marks the crude 's ninth straight session of advances, with May set to close with a 15% increase, the greatest monthly performance since January 2022. The reopening of the cities of Beijing and Shanghai has boosted crude oil prices recently, as China is the world's second largest consumer, accounting for 15% of global demand. On the production front, the OPEC+ meeting next Thursday might see oil-producing countries declare additional increases starting at around 450,000 barrels per day, which is still quite low in comparison to Western countries' requests to ramp up output quicker. From a technical standpoint, the daily relative strength index (RSI), which gauges uptrend momentum, continues to rise, hitting the 65 mark, the highest since March 9, but is now approaching overbought territory. Bottom line, the European supply shock, increased global mobility ahead of the summer, and positive technicals may push the global oil market into a new period of tightness, with further upside risks for prices, while crude's main negative factor – a recession with slowing demand – is still a long way off. The psychological level of $120 is now the next major resistance, and beyond that, bulls might seek to attack $126.5 (March 8 highs). On the downside, $114 (highs of May 27) might act as a support.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by Capitalcom
Oil Rallies Off Russian Oil BanOil has rallied significantly off news that the EU is planning to ban Russian imports of oil , despite the fact that Russia supplies 27% of the EU's oil and 40% of its gas. Crude oil prices soared off this news and we were able to smash through a relative high at $116. This was our target from earlier. Recall that last week, we noted oil's relative strength and set a target at $116. It is difficult to find justification for a signficant retracement, but a technical pull back should find support at $116 or $113. Our next target is $122, which would be signficant as this is a relative high.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
BASF SE (BAS.de) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the German company BASF SE (BAS.de) at daily chart. BASF SE is a German multinational chemical company and the largest chemical producer in the world. The Triangle has broken through the resistance line on 27/05/2022, if the price holds above this level you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 8 days towards 53.32 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 48.62 EUR if you decide to enter this position. German chemical group BASF (BAS.DE) warned it could be hit by the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and counter measures in China to curb rising coronavirus infections. However, the world's biggest petrochemical firm's margins jumped as it benefitted from passing soaring raw material costs to industrial customers. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
XETR:BASLong
by legacyFXofficial
MOS/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishMOS/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. * Fed minutes were released today and confirms that the Fed is committed to two more rate hikes in June and July of at least 50 bps with potential for another 50-75 bp hike in September, and that they will sell mortgage backed securities (rather than let them roll over) if necessary as a means of reducing their balance sheet. Equity markets are currently responding positively but this could be short-lived. Additionally, to address the global food shortage, last week the U.N. proposed a plan for Russia to unblock grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea in exchange for reducing Western sanctions on fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus; considering that Russia has found willing buyers of their fertilizer at higher price points, this is unlikely to pass anytime soon.* Recommended ratio: 40% MOS, 60% cash. Price is currently breaking down out of the uptrend line from 01/24/22 but is still technically testing it as support at ~$60. Volume remains high (moderate) and alternating between buyers and sellers every other day for what is now twelve consecutive sessions; this is indicative of potential consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $66 which currently coincides with the 50 MA, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45.48 but is still technically testing 40.33 support; if it is able to establish support here it will likely test 58.12 resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 59; the next resistance is at 80.49 and support at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -1.65 as it continues to hover just below the Signal line (-1.54); if it is able to break out above -1.54 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 19 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22 (~$60) this would also imply that it has broken out of the descending trendline from 04/18/22 and would likely prompt a retest of $64.22 resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $55.79 minor support before potentially testing the 200 MA (for the first time since 12/01/21) at ~$46.28. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $60.40.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
Starbucks (SBUX) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the US company Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) at daily chart. Starbucks Corporation is an American multinational chain of coffeehouses and roastery reserves headquartered in Seattle, Washington. It is the world's largest coffeehouse chain. As of November 2021, the company had 33,833 stores in 80 countries, 15,444 of which were located in the United States. Out of Starbucks' U.S.-based stores, over 8,900 are company-operated, while the remainder are licensed. The Triangle has broken through the resistance line on 21/05/2022, if the price holds above this level you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 4 days towards 79.10 USD. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 70.36 USD if you decide to enter this position. After 15 years in the country, Starbucks announced it was exiting Russia. Starbucks to close 130 stores in Russia, unionization push expands to over 260 U.S. stores. n addition, as a result of its exit from Russia, the fast food giant said it expected to record a charge of approximately $1.2 to 1.4 billion to write off its net investment in the market and recognize significant foreign currency translation losses. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by legacyFXofficial
1